Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bad trader]

This is all just a temporary setback, right? We'll be back at $320 in no time, right?

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[hdbuck]

^bad trader?!

[bad trader]

^bad trader?!

I have no clue what is going on.

Anyway, why are there bids at ItBit?

[fairglu]

BFX confirmed that that $100 flash crash was a glitch and reversed the trades. Only a few trades took place down there anyway.

True, but also completely irrelevant

Charts are not about what happened, or why, or if they are correct, or if they bear any relationship to reality, but about how other people and trading bots that read them react.

In that case, it's a perfect alignment of 3 lows separated by months, meaning some bots or people, are/were watching that trend line. That the first point is pointless in the real world is itself pointless, bots and people reacted to it, and that's all that matters.

[dreamspark]

BFX confirmed that that $100 flash crash was a glitch and reversed the trades. Only a few trades took place down there anyway.

True, but also completely irrelevant

Charts are not about what happened, or why, or if they are correct, or if they bear any relationship to reality, but about how other people and trading bots that read them react.

In that case, it's a perfect alignment of 3 lows separated by months, meaning some bots or people, are/were watching that trend line. That the first point is pointless in the real world is itself pointless, bots and people reacted to it, and that's all that matters.

Not true at all. Well slightly true but your argument completely disproves your point.

It is about how people read them and you're the only one using that spike in your trend lines nobody else is using that drop, go onto trading view and find me a chart where someone else is using BFX and that $100 spike that never actually happened, everyone else is reading it and interpreting it correctly which is as an anomaly.

Also most trading bots are on OKC due to their liquidity and near 0 fees, hardly any bots run on BFX now days so that point it moot also.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[findftp]

the last bubble was fueled by goxmoney that didn't actually exist.

Just like all the chinese exchanges are currently doing...
No way all coins which are traded do actually exist.

[fairglu]

...go onto trading view and find me a chart where someone else is using BFX...

IME "real traders" do not share their charts, the only ones that do are pros with a view and baseline amateurs (like me).

This trend happened, and interestingly enough the low spike before it was on a trend as well


I was lucky a few month ago (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=839312.0), my crystal ball gives a a target at $230 on early November/late October, and $250 around March 2016, with some movement in between, including a possible new low near $150. Feel free to disbelieve and laugh if I am wrong

[AZwarel]

  intentionally throttling the network to collect more fees is like strangling the golden goose to get more eggs.

Or like jumping out of a certain wooden sculpture when the walls of Troy first come into view?

Our like trying to charge money for an infinite resource?

Bip 101 timescale:

Year.  Size.  Reward.  blockchain size (rough estimate)
2016  8MB.  12.5.     40GB
2020  32MB  6.25.     3.4TB
2024. 128MB  3.125.  16.8TB
2028. 512MB  1.5625.  70.56TB
2032  2048MB  0.78125.  285.6TB
2036  8192MB  0.390625.  1145TB

How many individuals do you think will be incentivized to store more than a petabyte of data with no compensation? The good news is that Gavin's plan is preposterous and will never gain traction, so fortunately there's nothing to worry about.  

2036 is in 21 years. How big was a hard drive 21 years ago?  (hint: a tiny fraction of the storage on my current 3 year old phone).  Storage is so cheap now that if you include cloud storage like dropbox, it's free.
This is the same fallacy the Malthusians made about mass starvation with population doubling every forty years.  Didn't happen. All famines today are political, including ours.

some people have no foresight 

Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

[hdbuck]

 intentionally throttling the network to collect more fees is like strangling the golden goose to get more eggs.

Or like jumping out of a certain wooden sculpture when the walls of Troy first come into view?

Our like trying to charge money for an infinite resource?

Bip 101 timescale:

Year.  Size.  Reward.  blockchain size (rough estimate)
2016  8MB.  12.5.     40GB
2020  32MB  6.25.     3.4TB
2024. 128MB  3.125.  16.8TB
2028. 512MB  1.5625.  70.56TB
2032  2048MB  0.78125.  285.6TB
2036  8192MB  0.390625.  1145TB

How many individuals do you think will be incentivized to store more than a petabyte of data with no compensation? The good news is that Gavin's plan is preposterous and will never gain traction, so fortunately there's nothing to worry about.  

2036 is in 21 years. How big was a hard drive 21 years ago?  (hint: a tiny fraction of the storage on my current 3 year old phone).  Storage is so cheap now that if you include cloud storage like dropbox, it's free.
This is the same fallacy the Malthusians made about mass starvation with population doubling every forty years.  Didn't happen. All famines today are political, including ours.

some people have no foresight  

Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

hmmyea... but no.

The CEO of Intel suggested 'Moore's Law' is finally coming to an end
http://uk.businessinsider.com/intel-ceo-brian-krzanich-suggests-moores-law-is-over-2015-7?r=US&IR=T

Intel scientists find wall for Moore's Law
http://www.cnet.com/news/intel-scientists-find-wall-for-moores-law/


when you dont qualify, you stfu.


edit: bonus: The impending end of Moore's Law is not Intel's biggest problem: http://www.itworld.com/article/2949368/hardware/the-impending-end-of-moores-law-is-not-intels-biggest-problem.html

[dreamspark]

...go onto trading view and find me a chart where someone else is using BFX...

IME "real traders" do not share their charts, the only ones that do are pros with a view and baseline amateurs (like me).

This trend happened, and interestingly enough the low spike before it was on a trend as well


I was lucky a few month ago (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=839312.0), my crystal ball gives a a target at $230 on early November/late October, and $250 around March 2016, with some movement in between, including a possible new low near $150. Feel free to disbelieve and laugh if I am wrong

I'm not saying your wrong and I wouldn't laugh at you (only bag holding $500+ perma bulls get laughed at) , its all TA, its all opinions and probabilities but trust me you're the only one using that spike as part of your TA.

Who in their right mind uses one random spike on one exchange to base their trend lines off.

I'm only trying to help you out. If you consider yourself an amateur then learn, do not use one random spike on one exchange to base your TA off.

[alesx.onfire]

So the DOW is down about 950 points right now....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-24/panic-all-major-us-equity-indices-halted

 

When the house is down, close the casino

[findftp]

 intentionally throttling the network to collect more fees is like strangling the golden goose to get more eggs.

Or like jumping out of a certain wooden sculpture when the walls of Troy first come into view?

Our like trying to charge money for an infinite resource?

Bip 101 timescale:

Year.  Size.  Reward.  blockchain size (rough estimate)
2016  8MB.  12.5.     40GB
2020  32MB  6.25.     3.4TB
2024. 128MB  3.125.  16.8TB
2028. 512MB  1.5625.  70.56TB
2032  2048MB  0.78125.  285.6TB
2036  8192MB  0.390625.  1145TB

How many individuals do you think will be incentivized to store more than a petabyte of data with no compensation? The good news is that Gavin's plan is preposterous and will never gain traction, so fortunately there's nothing to worry about.  

2036 is in 21 years. How big was a hard drive 21 years ago?  (hint: a tiny fraction of the storage on my current 3 year old phone).  Storage is so cheap now that if you include cloud storage like dropbox, it's free.
This is the same fallacy the Malthusians made about mass starvation with population doubling every forty years.  Didn't happen. All famines today are political, including ours.

some people have no foresight  

Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

Yes, but my FLAC collection has already replaced my crappy MP3 collection and fits easily on a <1TB HDD.
Also my gazillion high res photo collection doesn't give a fuck about storage space.
There is no incentive for me to buy larger HDD's because I'm already drowing in free space unlike 10 years ago.

Lossless bitcoin compression (lightning network) is the way forward.
Converting MP3 to WAV is like increasing the blocksize and pretending it's better.

[fairglu]

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

Rate of progress drastically slowed lately:
* 2000: 200 MB
* 2004: 2 GB (x 10)
* 2008: 1.5 TB (almost x 1000) <<< this is the oddity that gave everyone the wrong impression
* 2012: 4 TB (x2.7)
* 2016: 10 TB (x2.5)

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hard_disk_drives#1980s.2C_the_PC_era)

Short of a new tech breakthrough, we won't get Petabyte drives soon, and SSD + cloud storage mean that people usually make do with less HDD storage these days than in 2010.

[aztecminer]

...go onto trading view and find me a chart where someone else is using BFX...

IME "real traders" do not share their charts, the only ones that do are pros with a view and baseline amateurs (like me).

This trend happened, and interestingly enough the low spike before it was on a trend as well


I was lucky a few month ago (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=839312.0), my crystal ball gives a a target at $230 on early November/late October, and $250 around March 2016, with some movement in between, including a possible new low near $150. Feel free to disbelieve and laugh if I am wrong

I'm not saying your wrong and I wouldn't laugh at you (only bag holding $500+ perma bulls get laughed at) , its all TA, its all opinions and probabilities but trust me you're the only one using that spike as part of your TA.

Who in their right mind uses one random spike on one exchange to base their trend lines off.

I'm only trying to help you out. If you consider yourself an amateur then learn, do not use one random spike on one exchange to base your TA off.

coinbase spiked well below 200 during that flash crash ... i need finish building my new secondary pc up and running because obviously two monitors is not enough during times like these.

[bad trader]

Things are looking bad. Even GBTC is finding new lows.

[Minotaur26]

 intentionally throttling the network to collect more fees is like strangling the golden goose to get more eggs.

Or like jumping out of a certain wooden sculpture when the walls of Troy first come into view?

Our like trying to charge money for an infinite resource?

Bip 101 timescale:

Year.  Size.  Reward.  blockchain size (rough estimate)
2016  8MB.  12.5.     40GB
2020  32MB  6.25.     3.4TB
2024. 128MB  3.125.  16.8TB
2028. 512MB  1.5625.  70.56TB
2032  2048MB  0.78125.  285.6TB
2036  8192MB  0.390625.  1145TB

How many individuals do you think will be incentivized to store more than a petabyte of data with no compensation? The good news is that Gavin's plan is preposterous and will never gain traction, so fortunately there's nothing to worry about.  

2036 is in 21 years. How big was a hard drive 21 years ago?  (hint: a tiny fraction of the storage on my current 3 year old phone).  Storage is so cheap now that if you include cloud storage like dropbox, it's free.
This is the same fallacy the Malthusians made about mass starvation with population doubling every forty years.  Didn't happen. All famines today are political, including ours.

some people have no foresight  

Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

Yes, but my FLAC collection has already replaced my crappy MP3 collection and fits easily on a <1TB HDD.
Also my gazillion high res photo collection doesn't give a fuck about storage space.
There is no incentive for me to buy larger HDD's because I'm already drowing in free space unlike 10 years ago.

Lossless bitcoin compression (lightning network) is the way forward.
Converting MP3 to WAV is like increasing the blocksize and pretending it's better.

Just sharing some information on lighting so we can consider the cons and be better informed:

Lightning is centralized by design. It's something like a centralized ledger that is capable of pushing out finalized transaction states to the real ledger at anytime.

Drawbacks:
- It screws with the UTXO set, because you can't tell where the money actually is in the system
- It's 100% centralized and could be prone to regulation. I've seen them talk about this and they say if the centralized node starts to whitelist addresses or something to that effect, they'll just start another one.
- It's incredibly complicated and will be prone to errors for the first year or two
- It's not really that useful if you're paying different people with every transaction you do. It's more useful for subscriptions or companies that are paying each other all of the time.

Lightning brings in the following

1) Centralization
2) trusting third parties
3) possible exploits.

In such a system, people are more motivated to find ways to create false tokens/cheat the system than they are to work by the rules. It basically throws out all the meticulous work that goes into ensuring consensus in favour of trusting someone to have your best interests  in mind. Such a system is a design failure from the word go and has no place in a world directed by cryptography and trustless systems. One wrong move and we can have a couple of billion "bitcoins" introduced into the system with no way to verify which one is authentic and which is not.

The so-called “Lightning network” that is being pushed as an alternative to Satoshi’s design does not exist. The paper describing it was only published earlier this year. If implemented, it would represent a vast departure from the Bitcoin we all know and love. To pick just one difference amongst many, Bitcoin addresses wouldn’t work. What they’d be replaced with has not been worked out (because nobody knows). There are many other surprising gotchas, which I published an article about. It’s deeply unclear that whatever is finally produced would be better than the Bitcoin we have now.

Here is the article from Mike Hearn on the subject:

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-capacity-cliff-586d1bf7715e

[coins101]

Its now do or die time for Chinese investors. The government encouraged margin trading too soon. It now needs to step-up and buy up shit stocks.

Margin trading stocks has wiped out most retail investors, including many that had some stakes in Bitcoin trading. This might be an extended downturn fueled by Chinese exchanges and Chinese investors that are now broke.

[aztecminer]

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

Rate of progress drastically slowed lately:
* 2000: 200 MB
* 2004: 2 GB (x 10)
* 2008: 1.5 TB (almost x 1000) <<< this is the oddity that gave everyone the wrong impression
* 2012: 4 TB (x2.7)
* 2016: 10 TB (x2.5)

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hard_disk_drives#1980s.2C_the_PC_era)

Short of a new tech breakthrough, we won't get Petabyte drives soon, and SSD + cloud storage mean that people usually make do with less HDD storage these days than in 2010.

my blockchain is kept on three 1tb hard drives raid 1 striped which gives me 3tb and fast (all three hard drives read/write data at the same time) .. i can download and index the entire blockchain in just a few hours...  os drives are 512Gb ssd's .. and file storage is kept on nas with 5 x 3tb hard drives in raid 5 or 6 (i cant remember) equals about 8tb. i think raid 6 or maybe is raid 50 because i can lose two hard drives and data stays safe. hard drive space really should not be a problem .. stop buying cheesy best buy pc's will help alot with blockchain management.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation