ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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September 28, 2015, 10:02:33 PM |
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Fakhoury
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Activity: 1386
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Permabull Bitcoin Investor
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September 28, 2015, 10:04:02 PM |
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Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit exactly. 2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k My bet (why not be bullish, right?): We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere. This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000). By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario? I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame. I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull). So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%. Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000. Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0 + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500 Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187 So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now! So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?
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adamstgBit
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Activity: 1904
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Trusted Bitcoiner
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September 28, 2015, 10:13:13 PM |
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0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000
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Peter R
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September 28, 2015, 10:15:47 PM |
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So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?
I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think. However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's. I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong. I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.
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Wekkel
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yes
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September 28, 2015, 10:23:24 PM |
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I think the next two months will be favourable to the price. Weekly Stochastics @BitcoinWisdom has turned up from the bottom.
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Fakhoury
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Activity: 1386
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Permabull Bitcoin Investor
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September 28, 2015, 10:24:07 PM |
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So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?
I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think. However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's. I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong. I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much. I'm like you, I don't think Bitcoin will die, on the contrary, it will go mainstream in 3-5 years (perma-bull). But I see a lot of people talking about $50-$100 within 10-12 years, what you think ?
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SmoothCurves
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September 28, 2015, 10:38:36 PM |
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So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?
I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think. However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's. I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong. I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much. You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD
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BldSwtTrs
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Activity: 861
Merit: 1010
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September 28, 2015, 10:40:56 PM |
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So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?
I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think. However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's. I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong. I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much. You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD Three halving from now.
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2254
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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September 28, 2015, 11:02:35 PM |
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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Activity: 1260
Merit: 1116
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September 28, 2015, 11:05:06 PM |
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So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?
I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think. However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's. I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong. I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much. You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD Three halving from now. The bulltrolling is strong today. We must be headed back down. Just kidding. No but seriously.
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JayJuanGee
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Activity: 3794
Merit: 10643
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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September 28, 2015, 11:22:01 PM |
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Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit exactly. 2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k My bet (why not be bullish, right?): We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere. This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000). By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario? I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame. I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull). So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%. Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000. Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0 + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500 Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187 So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now! Thank you for providing the a more specific response to substantiate your current position.
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BitofaN1
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September 28, 2015, 11:23:59 PM |
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Bearstamp earning its mettle.I remember last week being even below Btc-e for a while.
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JayJuanGee
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Activity: 3794
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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September 28, 2015, 11:24:51 PM |
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0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 hahahaha what's the time frame on that?
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Fakhoury
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
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September 28, 2015, 11:29:19 PM |
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0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 hahahaha what's the time frame on that? 2 years since June 2015.
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2254
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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September 29, 2015, 12:02:33 AM |
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adamstgBit
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Activity: 1904
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Trusted Bitcoiner
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September 29, 2015, 12:22:37 AM |
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0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 hahahaha what's the time frame on that? 2 years since June 2015. 1300 by this time next year and 32,000 less than a year later.
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Fakhoury
Legendary
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
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September 29, 2015, 12:29:46 AM |
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0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 hahahaha what's the time frame on that? 2 years since June 2015. 1300 by this time next year and 32,000 less than a year later. I agree with the $1,300 as the halving rally will start after and not before thr halving takes place.
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Patel
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September 29, 2015, 12:43:49 AM |
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240
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ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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September 29, 2015, 01:02:35 AM |
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2254
Merit: 1782
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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September 29, 2015, 02:02:37 AM |
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