Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fakhoury]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

I'm like you, I don't think Bitcoin will die, on the contrary, it will go mainstream in 3-5 years (perma-bull).

But I see a lot of people talking about $50-$100 within 10-12 years, what you think ?

[SmoothCurves]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD

[BldSwtTrs]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD

Three halving from now.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD

Three halving from now.

The bulltrolling is strong today. We must be headed back down.

Just kidding.

No but seriously.

[JayJuanGee]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

Thank you for providing the a more specific response to substantiate your current position. 

[BitofaN1]

Bearstamp earning its mettle.I remember last week being even below Btc-e for a while.

[JayJuanGee]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

hahahaha   


what's the time frame on that?

[Fakhoury]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

hahahaha   


what's the time frame on that?

2 years since June 2015.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[adamstgBit]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

hahahaha   


what's the time frame on that?

2 years since June 2015.

1300 by this time next year and 32,000 less than a year later.

[Fakhoury]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

hahahaha   


what's the time frame on that?

2 years since June 2015.

1300 by this time next year and 32,000 less than a year later.

I agree with the $1,300 as the halving rally will start after and not before thr halving takes place.

[Patel]

240 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[peonminer]

[MasterYii]

Wall Observer
A free service brought to you by the bitcoin community

Whenever there is a significant change in market depth, please update this thread with a new depth chart, and a good price chart with some TA is also welcome, feel free to comment on these if you have something to worth contributing, ( if your post is not at all TA it will be deleted )

Posting guild lines:
 Please lets keep this thread clean. ( I will be removing any off topic posts )
 Do not post random comments on this thread, unless it is directly related to the last wall update (ex. The 20K ask was was NOT sold into, it was removed after being tested)
 When you post a chart please use bitcoincharts.com, mtgoxlive.com, btccharts.com or bitcoinity.com

as requested, i have started a new thread.
this thread is now a self-moderated topic.
I will try and keep this thread clean, with only facts, current trends, past price movements, depth charts, etc.
I promise to not delete post simply because i do not agree with the bearish TA.

thank you for your input!

We needed more regulation around this bitch.

the rules of this thread is an attempt to keep this thread from having +1000 post when price is doing big moves, and instead relay important indicators during critical moments.
also when the market is more calm we can expect to see wall posts and TA price charts, back to back without any relevant chatting, making easier to analyze.
there are other threads where speculators can discuss their sentiment, just not here...

That 1000+ page thread was getting kinda useless.

How about bitcoinium.com pics? I can never get mtgoxlive to load

thats fine too,
I'm looking for quality charts or good TA bearish or bullish.

asking good questions example....

Interesting pattern I've noticed. It's been sort of bouncing downwards for the last 4 days. Is there a technical term for this sort of thing?

is also welcome here.


just don't be posting about your "FEELINGS" and you won't get delete.  

A lot of people have heard about biticoin by now and talk about it but few believe in it, that's what I observe.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[gentlemand]

A lot of people have heard about biticoin by now and talk about it but few believe in it, that's what I observe.

They've heard the word. I seriously doubt the overwhelming majority have taken ten minutes to try and figure out what it actually is.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation