Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mymenace]

I hate stocks. They dont have tradeable trends and they just immediately jump to some target price whenever news comes out. There are no rebounds and corrections. The banks and big guns have everything locked down to a tee. The worst is how they close and gap on the next day when you cannot trade them, plus they can be halted. On top of that, you have to pay extra to get real time data and pay for order books, on a market by market basis.

i have had more success and ease of access with bitcoin over the last 3 years

my stock not so good

tried to get other stock but could not be bothered with all the fees, brokers, identification, reporting required

F@#k the stock markets

my auditor was concerned with all my btc, my lost/stolen btc in reporting to the tax agent, but yet astounded at the increase of my investment

tried to buy pink diamonds, later decided I would be better off in bitcoin than buying a pink diamond

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[Cassius]

It looks like there will be a rise in bitcoin since Hitlery is going to win this one with Florida (AGAIN! ) begin the accusing state to doom the US for 4 more years of devious debauchery with another conniving (unt .

Other posters say Trump would rise Bitcoin. Which is it???

Also apparently every politician is Hitler. I've heard all of them called Hitler, including Trump, Obama and Bernie Sanders. Who is the real Hitler? Which one will gas 6,000,000 people?

If Adolf Hitler himself was elected, would Bitcoin rise or fall?

Trump's polling correlates very well against different asset classes, either positively (gold) or negatively (peso, stocks). It's not hard to guess how a Trump presidency would affect bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not correlated with either one of these asset classes.

Pretty sure a Trump presidency would boost bitcoin. A small minority of people think of it as a safe haven asset for some odd reason. More significant are the traders who think that people treat it as a safe haven, and the traders who think those traders think people treat it as a safe haven... Keynesian Beauty Contest, like Cyprus in 2013.
Not sure if there would be an effect from CNY as traders use it as a proxy for a weaker dollar.

[Searing]

It looks like there will be a rise in bitcoin since Hitlery is going to win this one with Florida (AGAIN! ) begin the accusing state to doom the US for 4 more years of devious debauchery with another conniving (unt .

Other posters say Trump would rise Bitcoin. Which is it???

Also apparently every politician is Hitler. I've heard all of them called Hitler, including Trump, Obama and Bernie Sanders. Who is the real Hitler? Which one will gas 6,000,000 people?

If Adolf Hitler himself was elected, would Bitcoin rise or fall?

Trump's polling correlates very well against different asset classes, either positively (gold) or negatively (peso, stocks). It's not hard to guess how a Trump presidency would affect bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not correlated with either one of these asset classes.

Pretty sure a Trump presidency would boost bitcoin. A small minority of people think of it as a safe haven asset for some odd reason. More significant are the traders who think that people treat it as a safe haven, and the traders who think those traders think people treat it as a safe haven... Keynesian Beauty Contest, like Cyprus in 2013.
Not sure if there would be an effect from CNY as traders use it as a proxy for a weaker dollar.

Actually ...with the election being over soon. No matter who wins 40% plus of the population is gonna be p/o'd at the winner. Thus I think after Tuesday BTC will pump regardless
for that reason. Don't envy the next president whoever he or she may be.

[Cassius]

It looks like there will be a rise in bitcoin since Hitlery is going to win this one with Florida (AGAIN! ) begin the accusing state to doom the US for 4 more years of devious debauchery with another conniving (unt .

Other posters say Trump would rise Bitcoin. Which is it???

Also apparently every politician is Hitler. I've heard all of them called Hitler, including Trump, Obama and Bernie Sanders. Who is the real Hitler? Which one will gas 6,000,000 people?

If Adolf Hitler himself was elected, would Bitcoin rise or fall?

Trump's polling correlates very well against different asset classes, either positively (gold) or negatively (peso, stocks). It's not hard to guess how a Trump presidency would affect bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not correlated with either one of these asset classes.

Pretty sure a Trump presidency would boost bitcoin. A small minority of people think of it as a safe haven asset for some odd reason. More significant are the traders who think that people treat it as a safe haven, and the traders who think those traders think people treat it as a safe haven... Keynesian Beauty Contest, like Cyprus in 2013.
Not sure if there would be an effect from CNY as traders use it as a proxy for a weaker dollar.

Actually ...with the election being over soon. No matter who wins 40% plus of the population is gonna be p/o'd at the winner. Thus I think after Tuesday BTC will pump regardless
for that reason. Don't envy the next president whoever he or she may be.

Frankly I'm not sure what I'm expecting from this election, politically or financially. At this point, nothing would surprise me, including the market shrugging a bit 'whatever'.

[Torque]

Frankly I'm not sure what I'm expecting from this election, politically or financially. At this point, nothing would surprise me, including the market shrugging a bit 'whatever'.

Agree. The World markets could have all bad news already priced in, although I personally think that's not the case, as I believe the markets are being magically levitated at this point for various reasons.  We could even see a stock market rally next year, but it would just be more fakery to extend equities further into overbought territory.

Here's what I do know, markets rarely do what people expect them to do. Rallies and more bull runs happen when people are expecting the markets to fall from being overheated.  

Crashes usually come after the last bear turns bull, everyone's feeling better about things, and exuberance kicks in.

But this time is different, because if interest rates are being held down and the World markets are being levitated in wait/hope for things to turn around, they're going to be waiting for years longer.  Retailers are going to get slaughtered again this year during the holiday season, corporate profits are falling, job growth is falling, oil will crash lower (eventually), and worldwide deflation is already setting in.  So I can't see how a stock market rally next year would be seen as anything other than dubious at best. If that happens, #expectthecrashsoon

[Cassius]

I would never underestimate the will of the authorities to prolong that Wile-E-Coyote moment for as long as possible. However it does appear that monetary policy is reaching its limits, finally. Which means you either have to pull something really big/unexpected out of the bag (hear the distant sounds of helicopter rotors turning) or bite the bullet. As you say, markets don't do what you expect them to and I can't see how this will finish. My guess is it will be something almost no one saw coming, probably a complication caused by the desperate attempts to keep things going a while longer but one that remains very much in the background until it's too late.
I would want a few BTC hidden away for that day, though, and ideally very little debt.

[TERA]

I hate stocks. They dont have tradeable trends and they just immediately jump to some target price whenever news comes out. There are no rebounds and corrections. The banks and big guns have everything locked down to a tee. The worst is how they close and gap on the next day when you cannot trade them, plus they can be halted. On top of that, you have to pay extra to get real time data and pay for order books, on a market by market basis.

i have had more success and ease of access with bitcoin over the last 3 years

my stock not so good

tried to get other stock but could not be bothered with all the fees, brokers, identification, reporting required

F@#k the stock markets

my auditor was concerned with all my btc, my lost/stolen btc in reporting to the tax agent, but yet astounded at the increase of my investment

tried to buy pink diamonds, later decided I would be better off in bitcoin than buying a pink diamond

When I did my taxes in 2013 it was a huge mess because I was using many exchanges and doing complex arbitrage using many coins. It would have been impossible to produce an intelligible trading trail and some of the exchanges were even closed. So I just subtracted the grand total of how much I had at the end of the year minus how much I originally deposited. I said fuck it: here I made $xxx,xxx of "bitcoin profit". Take it or leave it. You should be glad I'm paying taxes in the first place.

I never got audited for the Bitcoin. Though I did get audited for using $1500 from a Health Savings Account account that I forgot to document...

[Torque]

I would never underestimate the will of the authorities to prolong that Wile-E-Coyote moment for as long as possible. However it does appear that monetary policy is reaching its limits, finally. Which means you either have to pull something really big/unexpected out of the bag (hear the distant sounds of helicopter rotors turning) or bite the bullet. As you say, markets don't do what you expect them to and I can't see how this will finish. My guess is it will be something almost no one saw coming, probably a complication caused by the desperate attempts to keep things going a while longer but one that remains very much in the background until it's too late.
I would want a few BTC hidden away for that day, though, and ideally very little debt.

If we assume that on a Clinton win that markets would rally, stabilize, and even possibly bull run early next year, then I can interpret that as only one thing: That Wall Street believes that she is more sympathetic to Wall Street, Banks, and the Fed, and what she would likely support when the equities/commodities market crash actually happens: MORE stimulus, MORE socialized losses, MORE interest rate suppression.... and MORE GOVT and CORP DEBT.

Which is exactly what we DON'T need more of.

[Cassius]

I would never underestimate the will of the authorities to prolong that Wile-E-Coyote moment for as long as possible. However it does appear that monetary policy is reaching its limits, finally. Which means you either have to pull something really big/unexpected out of the bag (hear the distant sounds of helicopter rotors turning) or bite the bullet. As you say, markets don't do what you expect them to and I can't see how this will finish. My guess is it will be something almost no one saw coming, probably a complication caused by the desperate attempts to keep things going a while longer but one that remains very much in the background until it's too late.
I would want a few BTC hidden away for that day, though, and ideally very little debt.

If we assume that on a Clinton win that markets would rally, stabilize, and even possibly bull run early next year, then I can interpret that as only one thing: That Wall Street believes that she is more sympathetic to Wall Street, Banks, and the Fed, and what she would support when the equities/commodities market crash actually happens: MORE stimulus, MORE socialized losses, MORE interest rate suppression.... and MORE GOVT and CORP DEBT.

Which is exactly what we DON'T need more of.

I think that's a fair assessment. US interest rates are more likely to increase too.
And Sterling will get spanked some more as a result. Ah well.

[TERA]

I would never underestimate the will of the authorities to prolong that Wile-E-Coyote moment for as long as possible. However it does appear that monetary policy is reaching its limits, finally. Which means you either have to pull something really big/unexpected out of the bag (hear the distant sounds of helicopter rotors turning) or bite the bullet. As you say, markets don't do what you expect them to and I can't see how this will finish. My guess is it will be something almost no one saw coming, probably a complication caused by the desperate attempts to keep things going a while longer but one that remains very much in the background until it's too late.
I would want a few BTC hidden away for that day, though, and ideally very little debt.

If we assume that on a Clinton win that markets would rally, stabilize, and even possibly bull run early next year, then I can interpret that as only one thing: That Wall Street believes that she is more sympathetic to Wall Street, Banks, and the Fed, and what she would likely support when the equities/commodities market crash actually happens: MORE stimulus, MORE socialized losses, MORE interest rate suppression.... and MORE GOVT and CORP DEBT.

Which is exactly what we DON'T need more of.

If interest rates are suppressed, isn't that good for Bitcoin? I seem to remember a Bitcoin crash whenever interest rates were raised or spoken of being raised.

[Torque]

I would never underestimate the will of the authorities to prolong that Wile-E-Coyote moment for as long as possible. However it does appear that monetary policy is reaching its limits, finally. Which means you either have to pull something really big/unexpected out of the bag (hear the distant sounds of helicopter rotors turning) or bite the bullet. As you say, markets don't do what you expect them to and I can't see how this will finish. My guess is it will be something almost no one saw coming, probably a complication caused by the desperate attempts to keep things going a while longer but one that remains very much in the background until it's too late.
I would want a few BTC hidden away for that day, though, and ideally very little debt.

If we assume that on a Clinton win that markets would rally, stabilize, and even possibly bull run early next year, then I can interpret that as only one thing: That Wall Street believes that she is more sympathetic to Wall Street, Banks, and the Fed, and what she would likely support when the equities/commodities market crash actually happens: MORE stimulus, MORE socialized losses, MORE interest rate suppression.... and MORE GOVT and CORP DEBT.

Which is exactly what we DON'T need more of.

If interest rates are suppressed, isn't that good for Bitcoin? I seem to remember a Bitcoin crash whenever interest rates were raised or spoken of being raised.

Sure, low interest rates are great for traders in any market, allowing cheap hot money (zero interest credit) to flow in and leverage up.  But this gives a very distorted reflection of true value interest/capital preservation in said markets (eg. sound long term investment vs. quick return), leading to overbought activity (bubble) in just about every market where cheap money flows.

[Cassius]

I would never underestimate the will of the authorities to prolong that Wile-E-Coyote moment for as long as possible. However it does appear that monetary policy is reaching its limits, finally. Which means you either have to pull something really big/unexpected out of the bag (hear the distant sounds of helicopter rotors turning) or bite the bullet. As you say, markets don't do what you expect them to and I can't see how this will finish. My guess is it will be something almost no one saw coming, probably a complication caused by the desperate attempts to keep things going a while longer but one that remains very much in the background until it's too late.
I would want a few BTC hidden away for that day, though, and ideally very little debt.

If we assume that on a Clinton win that markets would rally, stabilize, and even possibly bull run early next year, then I can interpret that as only one thing: That Wall Street believes that she is more sympathetic to Wall Street, Banks, and the Fed, and what she would likely support when the equities/commodities market crash actually happens: MORE stimulus, MORE socialized losses, MORE interest rate suppression.... and MORE GOVT and CORP DEBT.

Which is exactly what we DON'T need more of.

If interest rates are suppressed, isn't that good for Bitcoin? I seem to remember a Bitcoin crash whenever interest rates were raised or spoken of being raised.

Sure, low interest rates are great for traders in any market, allowing cheap hot money (zero interest credit) to flow in and leverage up.  But this gives a very distorted reflection of true value interest in said markets (eg. sound long term investment vs. quick return), leading to overbought activity (bubble) in just about every market where cheap money flows.

Specifically in terms of bitcoin I don't know what to expect. Conventional wisdom suggests that if interest rates are higher then money will flow there from elsewhere, including bitcoin, though I find it hard to believe the impact will be that significant. Of more relevance might be the relatively weaker Yuan.

[Torque]

I would never underestimate the will of the authorities to prolong that Wile-E-Coyote moment for as long as possible. However it does appear that monetary policy is reaching its limits, finally. Which means you either have to pull something really big/unexpected out of the bag (hear the distant sounds of helicopter rotors turning) or bite the bullet. As you say, markets don't do what you expect them to and I can't see how this will finish. My guess is it will be something almost no one saw coming, probably a complication caused by the desperate attempts to keep things going a while longer but one that remains very much in the background until it's too late.
I would want a few BTC hidden away for that day, though, and ideally very little debt.

If we assume that on a Clinton win that markets would rally, stabilize, and even possibly bull run early next year, then I can interpret that as only one thing: That Wall Street believes that she is more sympathetic to Wall Street, Banks, and the Fed, and what she would likely support when the equities/commodities market crash actually happens: MORE stimulus, MORE socialized losses, MORE interest rate suppression.... and MORE GOVT and CORP DEBT.

Which is exactly what we DON'T need more of.

If interest rates are suppressed, isn't that good for Bitcoin? I seem to remember a Bitcoin crash whenever interest rates were raised or spoken of being raised.

Sure, low interest rates are great for traders in any market, allowing cheap hot money (zero interest credit) to flow in and leverage up.  But this gives a very distorted reflection of true value interest in said markets (eg. sound long term investment vs. quick return), leading to overbought activity (bubble) in just about every market where cheap money flows.

Specifically in terms of bitcoin I don't know what to expect. Conventional wisdom suggests that if interest rates are higher then money will flow there from elsewhere, including bitcoin, though I find it hard to believe the impact will be that significant. Of more relevance might be the relatively weaker Yuan.

The good news right now for us bitcoiners:
I believe that since Bitcoin bottomed from the last rally, that worldwide market-maker trader interest in the Bitcoin market is still relatively low, if not negligible right now. Most of the price rise over the last year can be attributed to the halving, and I don't believe that the current price is hovering that much higher over the cost of mining.  The market is still too small compared to other markets, and being so thinly traded, major equities traders wouldn't be able to take a large position without making a major splash.

Maybe all the major traders are all secretly placing huge market buys OTC directly from miners, that we don't get to see. Or maybe miners are just stacking coins for a rainy day. Who knows.

What I do feel though, is that I'd rather have a long position in bitcoin right now than just about any other investment I can think of, because I think it's a safer bet overall.  I think even as a long term store of value, bitcoin will spank things like savings accounts, etc., especially as fiat purchasing value continues to erode over time.

[Torque]

Big banks getting desperate to the keep the credit hampster wheel turning:

http://us.finance.qa1p.global.media.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-launches-marcus-for-consumers-130047624.html

Beware, they don't want you to pay down/off your personal debt. That would absolutely crush the banking industry. Their goal is to keep you in personal debt the rest of your life, so that you'll continuously need to make more and more money to pay your debts, instead of using that money to invest long term (make money with your money) and enjoying the fruits of your labor.

[bitebits]

[...]
What I do feel though, is that I'd rather have a long position in bitcoin right now than just about any other investment I can think of, because I think it's a safer bet overall.  I think even as a long term store of value, bitcoin will spank things like savings accounts, etc., especially as fiat purchasing value continues to erode over time.

The only luxury problem you might have is getting over exposed compared to the value of your other investments (stocks, bonds, fiat, house, etc).

I have no doubt the value of Bitcoin will get considerably higher than today (700$ / BTC). Because of being restricted in tx/s, limited infrastructure and yet unknown use cases. The only doubt I have is how long I can hold before getting the uncomfortable feeling of being over-exposed, even though I am selling something that is under-priced.

[DeathAngel]

I just asked for posters opinions in a gambling thread re: the election but you guys are a lot more knowledgable normally so I'd like to ask the following -


Do you think the price will be directly affected as a result of the election (whatever that ends up being - most likely Hillary imo)

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going sideways I see... currently $709 on Bitcoinaverage.

No weekend rally nor dip. Still digesting last week's FUD rumors and awaiting whatever will happen (if anything) with tomorrow's USA "election".

But JimboT, we already know from your many admissions against interest that you have very little will power when it comes to beer and java, so even though you could have had enough satoshis for 16 beers if you had hung onto the BTC transaction, wouldn't it be safe to assume that you only got 4 beers out of it?   

They only accept Canadian dollars where I was playing, so that's what I used to buy what beer I had to buy myself. Between complimentary beers and those bought for me by members of the audience, I don't usually spend a lot on beer when I'm gigging.

As for my gifted satoshis, they're still in my phone wallet. I only spend my bitcoins when i absolutely must. The last I spent was to buy a couple hundred dollars to take to the ballpark back in June. I was able to buy them back a couple of weeks later after the price dipped.

[JayJuanGee]

[...]
What I do feel though, is that I'd rather have a long position in bitcoin right now than just about any other investment I can think of, because I think it's a safer bet overall.  I think even as a long term store of value, bitcoin will spank things like savings accounts, etc., especially as fiat purchasing value continues to erode over time.

The only luxury problem you might have is getting over exposed compared to the value of your other investments (stocks, bonds, fiat, house, etc).

I have no doubt the value of Bitcoin will get considerably higher than today (700$ / BTC). Because of being restricted in tx/s, limited infrastructure and yet unknown use cases. The only doubt I have is how long I can hold before getting the uncomfortable feeling of being over-exposed, even though I am selling something that is under-priced.

If we have already learned about bitcoin, and we are fairly confident about it's upwards price potential and generally overall decent store of value in the longer terms, then we should not be living in a world of regret regarding our decision about how much is enough of a BTC stake.  

I do admit that I share the feeling of a lot of folks when bitcoin prices suddenly spurts up 20% or more, which is:  "oh, I should have bought a little more" or if BTC prices suddenly drop 10% or more, "oh, I should have sold a little more."

Nonetheless, if we have been into bitcoin for a year or more, we should have had enough time to sort out what is our bitcoin stake and what is our strategy in regards to bitcoin accumulation... and at what prices to sell, how much and at what prices to buy, how much.

Yeah, it is quite likely that we cannot exactly work out the details of our bitcoin strategy, because frequently, bitcoin performs in ways that are a bit beyond our expectations, but we can still (and should) have a general outline of a plan that we can live with and accept.

I will definitely concede that not everyone is going to approach bitcoin with the same proportionality or the same values or even the same level of specificity in any kind of plan that they make in regards to bitcoin.  Likely, a large number of bitcoin investing people will kind of develop general overall guidelines in respect to bitcoin, but then change their own guidelines from time to time or even on a short term emotional basis... but if we know anything, we should realize by now that bitcoin is going to continue to be volatile.

My initial plan in late 2013 was to acquire more or less 30 bitcoins in the first 6 months that I invested (by mid 2014), while studying bitcoin and considering that within about the first year (if bitcoin seemed to be a decent longer term strategy) then I would attempt to acquire about a 10% stake in bitcoin (considering my semi-liquid investment assets).  I pretty much met my goal in the first six months and then in the first year after considering and reconsidering the matter, but in late 2014, at that point, bitcoin was at the lowest price price point that it had been throughout the totality of my investment, and I had to reconsider to some extent what I was going to do and to rethink my previous thinking, which resulted in me concluding that I did not need to believe that it was urgent for me to invest more because I had already pretty much met my 10% goal, but only that I continue to dollar cost average reasonable amounts of fiat into bitcoin in the near to medium term...

Sure, in my case, we know how the scenario played out, up to this point, and we ended up being pleasantly surprised at the end of the year of 2015, because BTC prices nearly doubled for a short period in November, and then ended up rebounding again to pretty much more than triple from their early 2015 lower price points to go from mid-$400s to upper $700s in late May/early June 2016.

Anyhow, as BTC prices went up in the past year, I attempted to stick with what I considered to be a reasonable and prudent plan - even though my stake of quasi-liquid investment went from about 10% in late 2014 to about 1/3 currently based largely on bitcoin price appreciation.  So do I feel over invested or over exposed?  I personally do not, but surely everyone can consider their level of exposure in differing ways and also depending on whether they had been employing leveraging strategies, too.

My reconsideration of my BTC investment at this time is not necessarily to reapportion any of my BTC investment to my initial assessment (of 10%), because I really consider that the reapportionment that came to my current BTC holdings due to BTC price appreciation is not unstable because bitcoin seems to continue to enjoy very decent upward price potential - whether looking at the next year, next three years or the next five years.  I doubt that it is urgent for me to make any kinds of specific plans beyond five years, but I do have ballpark ideas for beyond five years, but more so, my ballpark ideas have to do with BTC performance more than any exact timing of the performance.

Part of my point here remains that if any BTC investors have already had sufficient time to take their initial stake in bitcoin, then they should also be somewhat capable of having a general plan about the extent that they are going to reapportion their BTC holdings now  (if at all and based on BTC price appreciation that has already occurred) or to have some general ideas about how much reapportioning that they are going to do based on various possible future BTC price performance scenarios, no?

[DaRude]

I just asked for posters opinions in a gambling thread re: the election but you guys are a lot more knowledgable normally so I'd like to ask the following -


Do you think the price will be directly affected as a result of the election (whatever that ends up being - most likely Hillary imo)

Already been through this. Why not ask about general market, rather than specific asset like BTC? Yes market prices in the election, and if the outcome differs from what's priced in market adjusts. BTC is considered a hedge so more volatility in general markets is bullish for BTC price.

Market doesn't like uncertainty either. Hiller is considered to be the winner, that why market moved up once FBI said they don't have anything on their latest emails investigation.

...Wall Street analysts agree that the S&P 500 will likely sell off if Donald Trump wins, and at least hold gains if Hillary Clinton wins...

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/market-predictions-sp-500-to-sell-off-if-donald-trump-tops-clinton-and-more-from-wall-street.html


TL;DR
Trump wins: market goes down, BTC up
Hillary wins Trump accepts the loss: not significant effect on BTC
Hillary wins, Trump doesn't accept and starts riots on the streets. BTC up

[bitebits]

@JJG So you had a plan (10%), and stuck with it (buying more) when the dollar value of your investment went down.
But now when it is 30%, you don't stick with your plan by not selling down to 10% (not judging, just summarizing).

My plan was to own a certain percentage of the Bitcoin network which got easier over time because of the declining price. Now I have it, and like you can't seem to sell them for fiat or s(t)ocks I don't need. A bitcoin is just too damn precious.