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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26370637 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
TERA
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November 03, 2016, 12:42:06 AM

Falling at 5649 would be bearish and might imply another 1-2 years before ATH
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spooderman
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November 03, 2016, 12:50:51 AM

Falling at 5649 would be bearish and might imply another 1-2 years before ATH

why do you have to say things that you know will hurt me?
TERA
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November 03, 2016, 01:02:59 AM

I'm referring to Yuan.
nanobrain
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November 03, 2016, 01:10:40 AM

I'm referring to Yuan.

Obviously, otherwise we'd be well in excess of the ATH.

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November 03, 2016, 01:12:01 AM

i know, that's why it hurts.

if that was USD then i'd have had a heart attack from happiness long before 5k+
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November 03, 2016, 01:17:44 AM

Falling at 5649 would be bearish and might imply another 1-2 years before ATH

Falling?

5649 by Sunday. Perhaps some recoiling before next ascension.

-PoolMinor
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November 03, 2016, 01:27:55 AM

Falling at 5649 would be bearish and might imply another 1-2 years before ATH

Falling?

5649 by Sunday. Perhaps some recoiling before next ascension.

-PoolMinor
Oh ok. It sounded like a peak target
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November 03, 2016, 02:02:36 AM

I haven't said anything about a "crash" but something like a test of $660 is entirely possible.

It is, and most likely will be visited in the next 1-3 weeks, if there is one thing i have learned is that "it always goes up. And than down. And than up". Except when it does not anymore (i mean here the down side), there is literally no chance to ever get a two digit price anymore, ever.

Why? Cause i would rather get a bank loan on my house than let 200> btc "unbought", and many people would do the same, hence there will be no 2 digit bitcoins, ever again.

$660 is close, yet, 2013 was a long time ago, at least 10x-100x more people want to get in/looking for ways to get in, any run up to the previous ATH will be an absolute psychological catalyst for mass investor FOMO hysteria, propelling the prices to several 4 digits areas least, and way too much institutional investment to let the price ever fall below 4 digits, like ever again, just as we know we won't see - NEVER - 2 digits anymore.

No idea, when the present bullish sentiment ends, $660 is totally possible (i hope so, i wanna buy in more at that price!) for a few weeks, maybe 2-3 months sideways at max, but after 8 years since Genesis block, there are roadblocks.

If we hit ATH again, it won't play out as last time, especially without Willy - aka, a slow bleed back to 2x price before the run up. Things has changed.
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November 03, 2016, 02:26:54 AM

5180 CNY resistance brake in less than 24 hours. Which are critical. This. Gentleman.

There was a 3 person line for the BTM in my city tonight. Never has seen anyone at that BTM before when i was out for buying!!
harrymmmm
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November 03, 2016, 02:44:07 AM


Ok, taking my seat again for the next round incoming.


Hey tok _ n

I was thinking about our recent interaction, and I am really thinking that if you were to consider a kind of weighted average to the trade volumes of exchanges, then that could be more satisfactory overall...

I've thought about this in the past too. I tried to model it as a supply/demand system.

I failed miserably, but the journey was enlightening Smiley

1) there is some actual faked volume easily visible watching trades, verified by people who should know etc. This makes modelling (and therefore weighting) very inexact.

2) as in all demand/supply models you either take into account some external resource limitations, or you accept an infinite demand when the price is zero. This means the zero transaction fee volumes are limited by unknowable things like traders' bandwidth, bot speeds, exchange processing limitations, etc. Weighting this is pretty much unknown (and even if you could, it wouldn't last long).

3) where the fee is above some threshold, it starts to become doable. I was looking at something like measured volume = a 'base' volume scaled up by some measure of the jiggling around of the price by traders with the start and end price over an analysis period (volume bar times). That base volume was to be just the volume 'swept' out under the effective supply/demand curves at the start of the analysis as the price moved (no retracements) from the starting price p0 to the end price p1 in the analysis period. I finally realized that the offered volume would, itself, probably be dependent on the fees (?).

The scaling up would need to be done by adding randomness, restricting possible transactions to those that actually made a profit greater than their fee plus maybe a factor expressing the drop in demand for transactions simply because of the fee (a trader sentiment kind of thing). The effective demand/supply profile would probably need to be approximated by the exchange order book.

I gave up looking at all the bad approximations needed in that lot. Lol.

TL;DR zero fee volumes can't be used sensibly unless you model those fake and external influences. Different fee volumes probably can't be modelled the way I described but maybe the basic idea is usable.

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November 03, 2016, 02:52:51 AM

Lift-off to $850-$900 followed by a crash back to sub $700. Then it's time to crush the ATH.

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November 03, 2016, 03:01:40 AM

Lift-off to $850-$900 followed by a crash back to sub $700. Then it's time to crush the ATH.



How sure are you ? It might crash or it might stay at the 900 range till next year and it takes off again.
TERA
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November 03, 2016, 03:05:11 AM

Lift-off to $850-$900 followed by a crash back to sub $700. Then it's time to crush the ATH.



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November 03, 2016, 04:13:30 AM

we are goign for 700 USD now guys!
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November 03, 2016, 04:25:10 AM

we are goign for 700 USD now guys!

feels like this comment is from the past like about 10 days ago.
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November 03, 2016, 04:30:26 AM

we are goign for 700 USD now guys!

no
marcus_of_augustus
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November 03, 2016, 04:36:51 AM


800.
PoolMinor
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November 03, 2016, 04:50:47 AM

Now.....


TERA
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November 03, 2016, 05:43:16 AM

Trust China;  get shanghaied
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November 03, 2016, 05:53:34 AM

Finally!



According to Bitcoinaverage.
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