Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.

Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because they're is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.

It is marvellous that almost nobody dares to believe simple math, in the context that it would make them insanely wealthy. It is almost as if the becoming rich part is detrimental to bitcoin adoption... Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today...

1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation
1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation

There's a lot of obstacles before Bitcoin is embraced by enough people to reach $300k per 1 BTC. If you are so sure about your prediction, put your BTC where your mouth is

[wachtwoord]

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.

Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because they're is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.

It is marvellous that almost nobody dares to believe simple math, in the context that it would make them insanely wealthy. It is almost as if the becoming rich part was detrimental to bitcoin adoption... Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today...

1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation
1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation

I agree that Bitcoin could one day potentially reach $300k per BTC. However why maintain it will be within a year, almost certainly? That is just silly and makes it look like you're trolling.

For some reason you are saying outrageous things to get attention while being smart enough to know that the things you are claiming are silly.

[KillaMarci]

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.

I don't know why you believe Bitcoin is going to be used by 1 billion people by the end of the year. That's simply not going to happen. Things like Facebook grow quickly because they're easy to use and people tell their friends about it etc. - Essentially everyone can go ahead and make a Facebook account. It's free, can be done in a few seconds.

Take Paypal for example:

NOVEMBER 2001
In a brief two years, PayPal has emerged as the most successful new
payment service provider on the Internet. Growing at a rate of 18,000
new accounts per day atop a base of 10 million registered users, PayPal,
more than any other service, is shaping how the online community thinks
about consumer payments. While the traditional financial services
industry looks on—partly in contempt, partly in awe—PayPal continues to
bear down: focusing on customer needs, methodically expanding its
service, and steering toward profitability.
This research report examines PayPal’s clear market success to
determine what lessons can be taken away by others in the financial
services industry. After describing how the service has evolved into a
point-to-point payment service, it looks at the company’s customer value
proposition, innovative marketing approach, and overall positioning in the
payments industry. The report concludes by distilling the lessons learned
from PayPal into six simple rules for developing new payment services.

That's 18,000 accounts per day, roughly 6.5 million per year. I know that's 2001, 12 years ago before the internet really started catching on. However my previous point still stands: Creating a Paypal account can be done in under a minute. Getting into Bitcoin is much much harder. When I first started I had to read up on a TON of things, then I had to somehow get my money into one of the exchanges. After a few days of fiddling around I finally managed to get some €'s into Bitstamp via a SEPA transaction.

Right now Bitcoin does not appeal to the general masses of regular consumers. If you want it to you need to make it MUCH easier to get Bitcoins and get to know about them.

[rpietila]

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.

Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because they're is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.

It is marvellous that almost nobody dares to believe simple math, in the context that it would make them insanely wealthy. It is almost as if the becoming rich part is detrimental to bitcoin adoption... Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today...

1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation
1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation

There's a lot of obstacles before Bitcoin is embraced by enough people to reach $300k per 1 BTC. If you are so sure about your prediction, put your BTC where your mouth is

Ah sorry!   Until now I thought your join date was early 2011, but that was another one. You have no business understanding this yet, ignored.

[fitty]

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.

Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because their is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.

Huh?

Bitcoin is a great transaction currency. Want to buy a bong, double ended dildo, without the govt, your mom, your wife knowing about it? Use Bitcoin! Want to send money around the globe without getting raped by fees? Bitcoin is here to save the day!

There's 10,000s of people using Bitcoin for those two purposes. None of them are trying to "get rich". You're confusing the exchange and Bitcoin. The exchange is an entity on it's own.

I'd argue Bitcoin is way more useful then Facebook, but since I never signed up for Facebook I  might be biased.  

[TheKoziTwo]

Haha oh man, rpietila and his supernodes may become some sort of meme  

But in all seriousness, $300k per bitcoin in 2013 is very delusional. Kind of reminds me of how Bruce Wagner went on and on with "price can only go UP UP UP" and "$10000 within the year" back in 2011.

rpietila, you can't ask people to prove a negative, if you believe the price will reach $300k within 2013 it's up to you to lay out the proofs or reasons why you believe so. Sure, facebook as had some wild adoption, but why would bitcoin have the same? it could take years before that happen... You said you pulled the rate of 10-30% weekly growth out of a hat, so it doesn't mean anything. You also don't know the current number of users nor do you know the amount of bitcoins available for sale. It's all speculation and silly bubble talk.

But $300k a coin? A man can dream can't he? A man can dream.

[Richy_T]

I admire your bot, Richie!

Now, there's something I wouldn't mind being told more often.

Ahh that's why it says automated posting?

I can't read those 3d charts though, they tell me nothing. Can you explain them?

The last hour's market, price on the X axis, market depth on the Z axis and time on the Y. Newest information closer to the front. Data gathered every minute, stored then processed at the 59th minute of each hour.

[freethink2013]

I'd be thrilled at $300 never mind the k

[Rampion]

I agree that Bitcoin could one day potentially reach $300k per BTC. However why maintain it will be within a year, almost certainly? That is just silly and makes it look like you're trolling.

For some reason you are saying outrageous things to get attention while being smart enough to know that the things you are claiming are silly.

This.  

Rpietila, if you're so sure accept 100 of my BTC against 50 of your BTC. I bet we won't reach $300k per 1 BTC during this year. You bet the opposite.

If you don't accept it's just because you know you are just trolling in a very silly way.

[rpietila]

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.

I don't know why you believe Bitcoin is going to be used by 1 billion people by the end of the year. That's simply not going to happen. Things like Facebook grow quickly because they're easy to use and people tell their friends about it etc. - Essentially everyone can go ahead and make a Facebook account. It's free, can be done in a few seconds.

Take Paypal for example:

NOVEMBER 2001
In a brief two years, PayPal has emerged as the most successful new
payment service provider on the Internet. Growing at a rate of 18,000
new accounts per day atop a base of 10 million registered users, PayPal,
more than any other service, is shaping how the online community thinks
about consumer payments. While the traditional financial services
industry looks on—partly in contempt, partly in awe—PayPal continues to
bear down: focusing on customer needs, methodically expanding its
service, and steering toward profitability.
This research report examines PayPal’s clear market success to
determine what lessons can be taken away by others in the financial
services industry. After describing how the service has evolved into a
point-to-point payment service, it looks at the company’s customer value
proposition, innovative marketing approach, and overall positioning in the
payments industry. The report concludes by distilling the lessons learned
from PayPal into six simple rules for developing new payment services.

That's 18,000 accounts per day, roughly 6.5 million per year. I know that's 2001, 12 years ago before the internet really started catching on. However my previous point still stands: Creating a Paypal account can be done in under a minute. Getting into Bitcoin is much much harder. When I first started I had to read up on a TON of things, then I had to somehow get my money into one of the exchanges. After a few days of fiddling around I finally managed to get some €'s into Bitstamp via a SEPA transaction.

Right now Bitcoin does not appeal to the general masses of regular consumers. If you want it to you need to make it MUCH easier to get Bitcoins and get to know about them.

All this is going to happen in 3 months, I have written it in my diary (link in sig).

It is almost as if nobody actually reads it  

[hmmmstrange]

but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.

rpietila, Do you believe we can have the mining hardware in place by the end of the year to secure a $300k price? The mining difficulty would need to increase by a factor of 1000. ASICS may increase the security 10 fold this year. Is it even possible to get 100 fold by years end? I do agree that the 300k is feasible by end of 2014 but not in 6 months.

[Nightowlace]

but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.

How many times do we have to quote you being wrong and saying "you can quote me on that" for you to realize no one is buying what you're selling. BTC once it begins to be adopted by the masses to buy and sell goods, services, etc. then and only them will we see a slow steady climb in price.

I will place a wager of one single Bitcoin that we do not exceed $1,000 this year. Not because I do not want it to be true but because it is simply not IMHO going to happen in 2013. The one bitcoin bet is not because you or I can't afford more it is a simple a gentlemen's gesture similar to that of the $1 wager in Trading Places where Eddie Murphey went from the outhouse to the penthouse. If you can make it happen, then make it happen.

[michaelGedi]

ooooohhhhh god... it's become reptilia observer thread again COME ON

All this is going to happen in 3 months, I have written it in my diary (link in sig).

It is almost as if nobody actually reads it

it is written

and this needed a +1

especially because if he is right, and BTC does one day reach $300k... well, this will be up on billboards everywhere

[Rampion]

ooooohhhhh god... it's become reptilia observer thread again COME ON

All this is going to happen in 3 months, I have written it in my diary (link in sig).

It is almost as if nobody actually reads it

it is written

and this needed a +1

especially because if he is right, and BTC does one day reach $300k... well, this will be up on billboards everywhere

We would be all happy if he is right, but he is not even willing to bet 50BTC of all his supernode fortune of thousands of BTC on his own prediction... So how can't we recognize it as delusional?

this would be posted on billboards to point out how nobody really believed in that, not even the supernode who predicted it  

[BitcoinAshley]

Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because their is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.

Huh?

Bitcoin is a great transaction currency. Want to buy a bong, double ended dildo, without the govt, your mom, your wife knowing about it? Use Bitcoin! Want to send money around the globe without getting raped by fees? Bitcoin is here to save the day!

There's 10,000s of people using Bitcoin for those two purposes. None of them are trying to "get rich". You're confusing the exchange and Bitcoin. The exchange is an entity on it's own.

I'd argue Bitcoin is way more useful then Facebook, but since I never signed up for Facebook I  might be biased. 

+1, fitty...
Gee, these "bitcoin users don't actually care about using bitcoin, all of them are just trying to get rich quick!" folks (i.e. the people who bought at $260) are a dime a dozen!

It's almost, like, what are those things called, 'stereotypes'? 

Aside from that it's an unfalsifiable statement. No definition is given as to what makes one a "hoarder/get rich quick schemer who doesn't care" vs. a "spender / treats bitcoin like a hot potato / keeps savings in USD / is a BUTTCONZ TRU BELIEBER."

If I have BTC50 in a cold wallet and the rest of my balance is USD/etc converted to bitcoin to buy cat food, restaurant food, VPN service, domain name, monthly delivery of PMs, occasional clothing or computer purchase - am I a spender or a hoarder?
Now, multiply the amount saved by 5 and decrease the amount spent by 2x... what am I now? Where do you draw the line between "buttcon tru beliebers who keep their savings in USD and only use bitcoin to buy stuff" and "evil hoarder spender speculators with 15 bajillion buttcons just trying to make a quick buck, don't actually CARE"

Bitcoin isn't your mom or girlfriend, guys. Bitcoin doesn't have feelings, so stop whining. It doesn't care how much you you BELIEVE in it nor does it care what percentage you spend vs. save and what label the butthurt bears therefore apply upon you without actually defining what ratio of BELIEBER/SPECULATOR you must be in order to qualify as "SOMEONE WHO CARES."

[Frozenlock]

I see a triangle.

[Richy_T]

I see a triangle.

[rpietila]

This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich  



I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:

When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.

This must grow by 100% to reach

When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.

This must grow by 100% to reach

4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.

This must grow by 100% to reach

8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast)

This must grow by 100% to reach

16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.

SINGULARITY

When this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.

Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.

In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users

[EuroTrash]

I see a triangle.

Will it be broken upwards or downwards? Short term bears are getting nervous and short term bulls seem to have gone to sleep.

[wachtwoord]

The above is all correct (go exponential function!). Still, if the price goes to $300k per Bitcoin this will be the single most unlikely thing (to me) that has happened. Ever.

Not that I'm complaining if it happens though