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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26390344 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
jl2012
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May 04, 2013, 04:40:42 PM
 #4161

I don't think we will see 105 again today. If the posters here are correct that the wall at 111 was eaten rather than pulled - I wasn't here so did not see it - I think then 120 will become support today.

It was eaten. I saw it too
Its About Sharing
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May 04, 2013, 04:41:49 PM
 #4162

Looks like resistance at 110 - 115 is waning. Time for 120?

I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.

A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.

True, there is resistance at 120-124 (that big volume hammer on the downside) but we broke through it on the rally or bounce out.
I think that makes that resistance weaker, no?
fitty
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May 04, 2013, 04:43:50 PM
 #4163

Ask Walls!

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May 04, 2013, 04:45:11 PM
 #4164

Double digits incomming Cheesy

Nice piccy! Now it really does look like an eighties Phil Collins album cover.  Grin
AmazonStuff
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May 04, 2013, 04:47:38 PM
 #4165

seleme
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May 04, 2013, 04:48:26 PM
 #4166

Another strange day in Bitcoin business  Grin
ineededausername
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May 04, 2013, 04:57:08 PM
 #4167

Bitcoin prices have always followed the principle of least expectation...
seleme
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May 04, 2013, 05:00:31 PM
 #4168

I expected it to be up to 107-108 today but I'm very surprised to see this volume higher than that. Guess that China stuff played the part, people are very keen to react on bitcoin news, both good or bad.
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May 04, 2013, 05:01:31 PM
 #4169

Right

2k on 113-114

Bears, I say, run for your lives!
wachtwoord
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May 04, 2013, 05:03:05 PM
 #4170

Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician  Grin

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  Embarrassed

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).
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May 04, 2013, 05:07:37 PM
 #4171

If I had that much influence in the Bitcoin world, and I proclaimed that it would NEVER hit $95 again, I would use my supernode powers to AT LEAST make sure it didn't hit $95 about six hours later,  LMAO.
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May 04, 2013, 05:08:26 PM
 #4172

I was very optimistic about China news, but then I visited this:

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/btcchina/CNY

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.
cedivad
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May 04, 2013, 05:09:20 PM
 #4173

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.
You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching? Tongue
seleme
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May 04, 2013, 05:09:39 PM
 #4174

Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician  Grin

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  Embarrassed

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).

Sure, it's very unimportant to a day trader like him to make a deal that stopped him adding 30-40 or even 50% if he'd cought bottom more coins to his collection next day. 200-300 coins difference.. meh, it's nothing

Fantastic, you can really read all kind of business theories here Smiley
rpietila
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May 04, 2013, 05:11:45 PM
 #4175

Looks like resistance at 110 - 115 is waning. Time for 120?
I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.

A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.
True, there is resistance at 120-124 (that big volume hammer on the downside) but we broke through it on the rally or bounce out.
I think that makes that resistance weaker, no?
We will need several attempts to leave the resistance levels of about 121, 135 and 150 behind. Then there is 167 and 267, but they were never confirmed with volume anyways.

I prefer to think that the strength of the resistance is important, but equally important is the move required to reach it. It is like marching armies to a battle. Sun Tzu writes:

Quote
Thus, if you order your men to roll up their buff-coats, and make forced marches without halting day or night, covering double the usual distance at a stretch, doing a hundred LI in order to wrest an advantage, the leaders of all your three divisions will fall into the hands of the enemy. The stronger men will be in front, the jaded ones will fall behind, and on this plan only one-tenth of your army will reach its destination.

If you march fifty LI in order to outmaneuver the enemy, you will lose the leader of your first division, and only half your force will reach the goal.

If you march thirty LI with the same object, two-thirds of your army will arrive.

You have a certain buying pressure, but if you want to conquer something that is 100 li (about 25%) away, no matter how weak it is, you will certainly fall. After such a move, sellers smell any sign of blood, and the 61% retracement is sure to happen. (This is pretty much my trading strategy: only sell after this move, because you cannot really lose)

If you need to advance 50 li (12.5%) and then demolish the wall, half of the buying pressure is already relieved, and likely the wall will hold. Even if it falls, the chances are great that the region will be revisited sooner or later.

After 30 li (7.5%) you have a mighty power to attack a wall, but even then, the victory is not sure.

Depending of the strength of the resistance, it should take up to 4 assaults to conquer it. No matter how strongly you destroy the wall, the region will be revisited. From hindsight, it was not a surprise that $50 support defended 4 intraday assaults during the mid-April crash. It took 5 assaults to conquer it when it was a resistance.

I admit I was wrong with my $115 never again call. I just did not see any stronger holds than $121 which was the 1st retracement of the 50->167 move. My fundamental analysis bias is also there. I see sub-1000 bitcoin as so insanely great a buy that I have a hard time differentiating between 134 and 78, although I probably should...Wink
AmazonStuff
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May 04, 2013, 05:13:06 PM
 #4176

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.
You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching? Tongue

I'm just saying completely the same volume as 30-days ago on BTCChina
seleme
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May 04, 2013, 05:14:54 PM
 #4177

Looks like resistance at 110 - 115 is waning. Time for 120?
I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.

A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.
True, there is resistance at 120-124 (that big volume hammer on the downside) but we broke through it on the rally or bounce out.
I think that makes that resistance weaker, no?
We will need several attempts to leave the resistance levels of about 121, 135 and 150 behind. Then there is 167 and 267, but they were never confirmed with volume anyways.

I prefer to think that the strength of the resistance is important, but equally important is the move required to reach it. It is like marching armies to a battle. Sun Tzu writes:

Quote
Thus, if you order your men to roll up their buff-coats, and make forced marches without halting day or night, covering double the usual distance at a stretch, doing a hundred LI in order to wrest an advantage, the leaders of all your three divisions will fall into the hands of the enemy. The stronger men will be in front, the jaded ones will fall behind, and on this plan only one-tenth of your army will reach its destination.

If you march fifty LI in order to outmaneuver the enemy, you will lose the leader of your first division, and only half your force will reach the goal.

If you march thirty LI with the same object, two-thirds of your army will arrive.

You have a certain buying pressure, but if you want to conquer something that is 100 li (about 25%) away, no matter how weak it is, you will certainly fall. After such a move, sellers smell any sign of blood, and the 61% retracement is sure to happen. (This is pretty much my trading strategy: only sell after this move, because you cannot really lose)

If you need to advance 50 li (12.5%) and then demolish the wall, half of the buying pressure is already relieved, and likely the wall will hold. Even if it falls, the chances are great that the region will be revisited sooner or later.

After 30 li (7.5%) you have a mighty power to attack a wall, but even then, the victory is not sure.

Depending of the strength of the resistance, it should take up to 4 assaults to conquer it. No matter how strongly you destroy the wall, the region will be revisited. From hindsight, it was not a surprise that $50 support defended 4 intraday assaults during the mid-April crash. It took 5 assaults to conquer it when it was a resistance.

I admit I was wrong with my $115 never again call. I just did not see any stronger holds than $121 which was the 1st retracement of the 50->167 move. My fundamental analysis bias is also there. I see sub-1000 bitcoin as so insanely great a buy that I have a hard time differentiating between 134 and 78, although I probably should...Wink

That's better, you can do it when you decide to not act stupid.
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May 04, 2013, 05:19:15 PM
 #4178

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.
You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching? Tongue

I'm just saying completely the same volume as 30-days ago on BTCChina

China is big. Bitcoin wants to be big. Get on the rocket to the moon or be left behind with the other bears!

http://qz.com/74137/six-reasons-why-chinese-people-will-drive-the-next-bull-market-in-bitcoin/
AmazonStuff
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May 04, 2013, 05:21:50 PM
 #4179

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.
You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching? Tongue

I'm just saying completely the same volume as 30-days ago on BTCChina

China is big. Bitcoin wants to be big. Get on the rocket to the moon or be left behind with the other bears!

http://qz.com/74137/six-reasons-why-chinese-people-will-drive-the-next-bull-market-in-bitcoin/

So, if China is a big fan of digital currency why did they banned their own Q-coin?
TsuyokuNaritai
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May 04, 2013, 05:23:08 PM
 #4180

China skeptics, take another look at the Bitcoin client downloads:

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-04

China wasn't that much above US a few hours ago. Now it's about 20x US for the whole day.
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