Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[favelle75]

If I had that much influence in the Bitcoin world, and I proclaimed that it would NEVER hit $95 again, I would use my supernode powers to AT LEAST make sure it didn't hit $95 about six hours later,  LMAO.

[1686276736]

1686276736

[1686276736]

1686276736

[1686276736]

1686276736

[AmazonStuff]

I was very optimistic about China news, but then I visited this:

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/btcchina/CNY

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.

[cedivad]

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.

You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching?

[seleme]

Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician  

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).

Sure, it's very unimportant to a day trader like him to make a deal that stopped him adding 30-40 or even 50% if he'd cought bottom more coins to his collection next day. 200-300 coins difference.. meh, it's nothing

Fantastic, you can really read all kind of business theories here

[rpietila]

Looks like resistance at 110 - 115 is waning. Time for 120?

I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.

A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.

True, there is resistance at 120-124 (that big volume hammer on the downside) but we broke through it on the rally or bounce out.
I think that makes that resistance weaker, no?

We will need several attempts to leave the resistance levels of about 121, 135 and 150 behind. Then there is 167 and 267, but they were never confirmed with volume anyways.

I prefer to think that the strength of the resistance is important, but equally important is the move required to reach it. It is like marching armies to a battle. Sun Tzu writes:

Thus, if you order your men to roll up their buff-coats, and make forced marches without halting day or night, covering double the usual distance at a stretch, doing a hundred LI in order to wrest an advantage, the leaders of all your three divisions will fall into the hands of the enemy. The stronger men will be in front, the jaded ones will fall behind, and on this plan only one-tenth of your army will reach its destination.

If you march fifty LI in order to outmaneuver the enemy, you will lose the leader of your first division, and only half your force will reach the goal.

If you march thirty LI with the same object, two-thirds of your army will arrive.

You have a certain buying pressure, but if you want to conquer something that is 100 li (about 25%) away, no matter how weak it is, you will certainly fall. After such a move, sellers smell any sign of blood, and the 61% retracement is sure to happen. (This is pretty much my trading strategy: only sell after this move, because you cannot really lose)

If you need to advance 50 li (12.5%) and then demolish the wall, half of the buying pressure is already relieved, and likely the wall will hold. Even if it falls, the chances are great that the region will be revisited sooner or later.

After 30 li (7.5%) you have a mighty power to attack a wall, but even then, the victory is not sure.

Depending of the strength of the resistance, it should take up to 4 assaults to conquer it. No matter how strongly you destroy the wall, the region will be revisited. From hindsight, it was not a surprise that $50 support defended 4 intraday assaults during the mid-April crash. It took 5 assaults to conquer it when it was a resistance.

I admit I was wrong with my $115 never again call. I just did not see any stronger holds than $121 which was the 1st retracement of the 50->167 move. My fundamental analysis bias is also there. I see sub-1000 bitcoin as so insanely great a buy that I have a hard time differentiating between 134 and 78, although I probably should...

[AmazonStuff]

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.

You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching?

I'm just saying completely the same volume as 30-days ago on BTCChina

[seleme]

Looks like resistance at 110 - 115 is waning. Time for 120?

I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.

A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.

True, there is resistance at 120-124 (that big volume hammer on the downside) but we broke through it on the rally or bounce out.
I think that makes that resistance weaker, no?

We will need several attempts to leave the resistance levels of about 121, 135 and 150 behind. Then there is 167 and 267, but they were never confirmed with volume anyways.

I prefer to think that the strength of the resistance is important, but equally important is the move required to reach it. It is like marching armies to a battle. Sun Tzu writes:

Thus, if you order your men to roll up their buff-coats, and make forced marches without halting day or night, covering double the usual distance at a stretch, doing a hundred LI in order to wrest an advantage, the leaders of all your three divisions will fall into the hands of the enemy. The stronger men will be in front, the jaded ones will fall behind, and on this plan only one-tenth of your army will reach its destination.

If you march fifty LI in order to outmaneuver the enemy, you will lose the leader of your first division, and only half your force will reach the goal.

If you march thirty LI with the same object, two-thirds of your army will arrive.

You have a certain buying pressure, but if you want to conquer something that is 100 li (about 25%) away, no matter how weak it is, you will certainly fall. After such a move, sellers smell any sign of blood, and the 61% retracement is sure to happen. (This is pretty much my trading strategy: only sell after this move, because you cannot really lose)

If you need to advance 50 li (12.5%) and then demolish the wall, half of the buying pressure is already relieved, and likely the wall will hold. Even if it falls, the chances are great that the region will be revisited sooner or later.

After 30 li (7.5%) you have a mighty power to attack a wall, but even then, the victory is not sure.

Depending of the strength of the resistance, it should take up to 4 assaults to conquer it. No matter how strongly you destroy the wall, the region will be revisited. From hindsight, it was not a surprise that $50 support defended 4 intraday assaults during the mid-April crash. It took 5 assaults to conquer it when it was a resistance.

I admit I was wrong with my $115 never again call. I just did not see any stronger holds than $121 which was the 1st retracement of the 50->167 move. My fundamental analysis bias is also there. I see sub-1000 bitcoin as so insanely great a buy that I have a hard time differentiating between 134 and 78, although I probably should...

That's better, you can do it when you decide to not act stupid.

[fitty]

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.

You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching?

I'm just saying completely the same volume as 30-days ago on BTCChina

China is big. Bitcoin wants to be big. Get on the rocket to the moon or be left behind with the other bears!

http://qz.com/74137/six-reasons-why-chinese-people-will-drive-the-next-bull-market-in-bitcoin/

[AmazonStuff]

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.

You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching?

I'm just saying completely the same volume as 30-days ago on BTCChina

China is big. Bitcoin wants to be big. Get on the rocket to the moon or be left behind with the other bears!

http://qz.com/74137/six-reasons-why-chinese-people-will-drive-the-next-bull-market-in-bitcoin/

So, if China is a big fan of digital currency why did they banned their own Q-coin?

[TsuyokuNaritai]

China skeptics, take another look at the Bitcoin client downloads:

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-04

China wasn't that much above US a few hours ago. Now it's about 20x US for the whole day.

[fitty]

I think it's an extremely low volume, it's possible that we are overreacting.

You don't say? Bitcoin overreaching?

I'm just saying completely the same volume as 30-days ago on BTCChina

China is big. Bitcoin wants to be big. Get on the rocket to the moon or be left behind with the other bears!

http://qz.com/74137/six-reasons-why-chinese-people-will-drive-the-next-bull-market-in-bitcoin/

So, if China is a big fan of digital currency why did they banned their own Q-coin?

Not enough supernodes.

[arepo]

So now almost everyone is a bear? Investor cycle says we are going up then. 

ok wake me up when we going up bro.

awake yet?

we've reached a short-term bottom.

I bought in at 97 So much for that whole Elliot wave thing... Grrrrr

why you sad

pretty soon people will be all like "damn i KNEW i should've bought under 100"

i'm sick and tired of taking abuse, but no praise. i hope you TA-naysayers who wrote off my analysis because it was 'obvious' that we were going straight to $50 buy at the top of this minibull.

[seleme]

You want to be praised? Haha, for what - seeing 10k wall and figuring out it won't get below it.

Hail The King, The Master Of Market Analysis

[SAQ]

China skeptics, take another look at the Bitcoin client downloads:

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-04

China wasn't that much above US a few hours ago. Now it's about 20x US for the whole day.

Yup, I knew those bid wallers at 90 knew something I didn't. The download yesterday went from 1000 to 10,000 to 20,000 today.

[420]

You guys need to keep in mind that rpietila is the same guy who didn't know how to prove he had bitcoins other than sending them to some random noob troll and then asking for it back. LOL

 

before bitcoin there was no smoothie.
as long as there's been bitcoin smoothie's been an expert, never a noob

we get it smoothie

[fitty]

Bulls: Chargeeeee! Doh.

[needmorecoins]

These walls/hills won't let me sleep....

[AmazonStuff]

Let's put TA aside and think about yesterdays jump from $78  to $90 in a few seconds, then someone put a 10 000 wall on $90. I was thinking why would someone put that wall there at that moment when he can buy coins at lower price?!

Hmm... You will hate me for saying this, but probably he realized that we are going deeper under ground and he has a lot unsold coins, so he pushed the BTC up, then he will sell the coins at higher price and after that he will let the price go down.

It's possible that it's the same person who put those $104 and $120 walls, probably majority of his coins is in that range.

And what is he going to do when he sell us his coins?

Probably he will remove the walls and give us a few downward pushes, it's profitable for him sitting on fiat at that moment.

[SAQ]

Lol massive dump could barely get it down to 110. Weak I think considering we moved from 95 to 115 in such a short time.

[Coinbuck @ BTCLot]

The market is overreacting. It would take days till we see any impact in the market (even if we would).