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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26405420 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Frozenlock
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May 04, 2013, 09:20:29 PM
 #4241

So... that's exactly like every other market then.
Kinda, yeah, though I think there's more emotions drivel trading at bitcoin market than others, most of other markets are professionals only, most of us here are pure amateurs...

I wouldn't say that.

Other markets are usually much, MUCH bigger and thus harder to move one way or the other.

They also have many financial tools not yet available for bitcoiners.

(Shorting is still somewhat limited and I don't think I saw any puts, or other derivatives.)

I have coworkers buying stocks even if they have no ideas how things work. It's just trendy to do so.
samson
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May 04, 2013, 09:25:18 PM
 #4242

Warren Buffett comments on Berkshire Hathaway / Bitcoin:

https://twitter.com/beckyquickcnbc/statuses/330708125671895041

I can't imagine anything better than the debit card system. If I can't imagine it, then not one else can either, so it most certainly cannot ever happen.

Who cares? Buffet doesn't invest in things he cannot understand.

Buffet could have a high class of supernode.
Rampion
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May 04, 2013, 09:25:28 PM
 #4243

I think the walls permit bitcoin to rise to $119 in a bold move. Afterwards I go to sleep and not post, and the general bullishness erodes, and the bears push the price back to $106. We will not see 100 ever again.

Damn, I was almost there!  Angry If rontus had been working (fortunately he only works about 50 hours of 168 per week, and generally not on Saturdays, and even of his working time, I only give him authority to sell short about 30% of the time, so this is purely of theoretical interest now) he would certainly have smelled the trend change and managed to sell about BTC430 at an average price of $113.2. Then I would have told him to buy back at $103 (he is better in selling but my buyback levels are more spot on).

The 42,500mBTC profit would have enabled our lifestyle for several days...

Well, from your "category list" it seems we are all supernodes... Cool!

Indeed we are. There are only so many bitcoins in the world, and a lowest class supernode is not a U.S. Administration of 100,000 skilled professionals, but an ordinary bloke who bought in any time before March 2013, and has some spare time, and knowledge of English, maths and history. Of course when we go up the ladder, there will be many rpietilas, and in the higher level Goat, MP and Winklewii.

Read the "supernode OP" for more info and comment where appropriate!

Quote
Anyhow, as I said earlier everything look very fishy - I see two options: a) you are delusional and not-very-smart folk who made some money in the wild Bitcoin ride we had lately (not so difficult, we went x10 in just a few months) and now you are riding your very own ego trip, or b) you are preparing a big scam flooding the community with your "i am so wealthy" thing

Why is it so offensive that I live in a classy hotel? The highest burn rate of $200k per month was last week, now I spend at about $50k per month. If I go home and eat noodles, my expenses still run at about $20-30k minimum, since I have staff. Most of the businessmen do, in the real world. Generally their expenses are much higher than mine. I am actually very stingy, compared to most of my friends.

If you think this is excessive for what I manage to accomplish, how about complaining about how your very own tax money is spent in Afghanistan with far less positive effect? I would say the difference is about 4 orders of magnitude, in other words 10,000 times more money totally wasted!

With a rather conservative price prediction for the following 3 months, I estimate a 100% per month increase, which would mean that per every BTC100, you make about $10k first month. A 3rd class supernode can quit eating noodles and start to live. A 2nd class supernode of BTC1,000 can do what I do, and I just await that the real big guys start to benefit the mankind with their stashes.

This is the reason I spend - to show that even a medium BTC-holder can do this! No reason to hate, rather you live up to your own standard, and I live up to mine. If you have at least BTC1,000 as I assume every 2012 or before has (unless he proves otherwise), you can do the same as I do, with ease. Why should I do all the work?? Every city needs at least one supernode, and I am here to help these becoming reality. It is one of the workshops in the summit.

Besides there is no "flooding of community". I post my theoretical observations to my own thread. Then I post my price predictions here, and every time I do, some April 14th troll speaks negatively of me. Then I correct the misunderstanding. In no way I am here to cause disturbance - the instant the OP

Quote
BTW: what about an escrowed bet, so you can put your money where your mouth is? Willing to bet that we will be at $300k/BTC by the end of the year, as you predicted? I'm sure al lot of users in these forums would be willing to join this bet. It's a nice way of hedging - if we win you give us your money, if you win we are all rich anyway, you included, so why not? Cheesy

How about the following:
- You escrow 100 bitcoins for my 1
- You write a 2013 $100,000 call option to your bitcoins, so that I can buy them from you anytime, by just sending you $10 million U.S. Dollars
- If I do not redeem your bitcoins before 31. December 2013, you get my 1 bitcoin as I lose the bet

This way everybody profits. Even if you lose, you get $10 million, and the rest of your bitcoins are worth even more. If I lose, I only lose 1 bitcoin, and I still have a lot (and they were not that valuable anyway..Sad )

Quote
Wouldn't you mind betting repietila?

My middle initial is A.

Risto: man up. You are either spreading BS you don't believe in a ridiculous attempt to talk the price up (you know that's not happening, right?) or you really believe that 1BTC will be above $300k by the end of the year.

If its the latter, I make you an offer you cannot refuse: 2:1 odds at your favor that we won't reach $300k per 1 BTC in this year, and we publish this bet so other members can join up to a maximum total amount you choose. Minimum bet 100BTC
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May 04, 2013, 09:26:39 PM
 #4244

So... that's exactly like every other market then.
Kinda, yeah, though I think there's more emotions drivel trading at bitcoin market than others, most of other markets are professionals only, most of us here are pure amateurs...

I wouldn't say that.

Other markets are usually much, MUCH bigger and thus harder to move one way or the other.

They also have many financial tools not yet available for bitcoiners.

(Shorting is still somewhat limited and I don't think I saw any puts, or other derivatives.)

I have coworkers buying stocks even if they have no ideas how things work. It's just trendy to do so.

Yeah but lot of stocks markets don't let each random Joe to trade on their platforms. You are free to invest but through broker.

Anyone can trade Bitcoins, I don't have a clue about markets and never studied it and I went to trade bitcoins. That's nowhere near standards required for real stuff, my only luck (and luck of most of us here who trade) is that it's extremely volatile market so even if we make mistakes we can fix them doing next trade in another speculative market move.

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May 04, 2013, 09:27:11 PM
 #4245

I admire your bot, Richie!

Now, there's something I wouldn't mind being told more often. Cheesy
seleme
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May 04, 2013, 09:28:39 PM
 #4246

I admire your bot, Richie!

Now, there's something I wouldn't mind being told more often. Cheesy

What bot we are talking about?
KillaMarci
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May 04, 2013, 09:33:37 PM
 #4247

I admire your bot, Richie!

Now, there's something I wouldn't mind being told more often. Cheesy

What bot we are talking about?

That 3D wall bot that's posting the wall picture every hour or so.
SAQ
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May 04, 2013, 09:34:17 PM
 #4248

I admire your bot, Richie!

Now, there's something I wouldn't mind being told more often. Cheesy

Ahh that's why it says automated posting?

I can't read those 3d charts though, they tell me nothing. Can you explain them?
rpietila
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May 04, 2013, 09:34:57 PM
 #4249

Risto: man up. You are either spreading BS you don't believe in a ridiculous attempt to talk the price up (you know that's not happening, right?) or you really believe that 1BTC will be above $300k by the end of the year.

If its the latter, I make you an offer you cannot refuse: 2:1 odds at your favor that we won't reach $300k per 1 BTC in this year, and we publish this bet so other members can join up to a maximum total amount you choose. Minimum bet 100BTC

I only bet so that I win regardless. If you offer such bad odds, I better just buy bitcoins. Besides betting without actual transfer of bitcoins to me, is pointless hot air, therefore I either buy calls or write puts. I thought you would be happy by either getting 1 bitcoin or 10 million USD... no lose huh Huh

What price range do you believe then??
Rampion
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May 04, 2013, 09:42:31 PM
Last edit: May 04, 2013, 09:54:34 PM by Rampion
 #4250

Risto: man up. You are either spreading BS you don't believe in a ridiculous attempt to talk the price up (you know that's not happening, right?) or you really believe that 1BTC will be above $300k by the end of the year.

If its the latter, I make you an offer you cannot refuse: 2:1 odds at your favor that we won't reach $300k per 1 BTC in this year, and we publish this bet so other members can join up to a maximum total amount you choose. Minimum bet 100BTC

I only bet so that I win regardless. If you offer such bad odds, I better just buy bitcoins. Besides betting without actual transfer of bitcoins to me, is pointless hot air, therefore I either buy calls or write puts. I thought you would be happy by either getting 1 bitcoin or 10 million USD... no lose huh Huh

What price range do you believe then??

Man, if we go to $300k per 1 BTC you have won regardless, wouldn't you?

Anyhow, it's clear you don't really believe in the tales you tell. No harsh feelings, just couldn't help myself to point it out.

And I don't pretend to know what it will be price range by the end of the year, but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional, while knowing at the same time that long term BTC will be huge unless something disruptive happens
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May 04, 2013, 09:53:28 PM
 #4251

For BTC to be worth 300k we would need an option to buy bread, milk or cigarettes with it in the neighborhood and in pretty much any shop we'd like.
TheKoziTwo
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May 04, 2013, 09:53:58 PM
 #4252

hes just a driver of some rich guy or just pay some $ to take this photo. hes a scammer.

This car is owned by this hotel Haikon Kartano and this spot in front of the hotel is not an uncommon place to find this car spend its days parked at.

Ah yes, I see now :




Love that polished image! Is there anyone here who is not a supernode yet? Maybe time to buy  Wink

0.0th class supernode = BTC1M
0.5th class supernode = BTC100,000
1.0st class supernode = BTC10,000
1.5th class supernode = BTC3,000
2.0nd class supernode = BTC1,000
2.5th class supernode = BTC300
3.0th class supernode = BTC100
KillaMarci
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May 04, 2013, 09:58:14 PM
 #4253

If BTC was at $300k by the end of this year then that would make most people in this thread instant millionaires. If I had to guess which price Bitcoin is at by the end of the year I'd say...

Let's just take the 1.6% daily growth we had before the April 10th. crash, throw them in Excel and see what it says...


$3000...still pretty damn high for my imagination to cope with though.

rpietila
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May 04, 2013, 10:03:56 PM
 #4254

but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.
rpietila
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May 04, 2013, 10:07:09 PM
 #4255

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
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May 04, 2013, 10:11:38 PM
 #4256

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because their is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.
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May 04, 2013, 10:11:50 PM
 #4257

hes just a driver of some rich guy or just pay some $ to take this photo. hes a scammer.

This car is owned by this hotel Haikon Kartano and this spot in front of the hotel is not an uncommon place to find this car spend its days parked at.

Ah yes, I see now :

http://s11.postimg.org/5zm8p8jb7/weddingcar.jpg

http://s20.postimg.org/5f8g9s8jd/aaa.jpg
Love that polished image! Is there anyone here who is not a supernode yet? Maybe time to buy  Wink

0.0th class supernode = BTC1M
0.5th class supernode = BTC100,000
1.0st class supernode = BTC10,000
1.5th class supernode = BTC3,000
2.0nd class supernode = BTC1,000
2.5th class supernode = BTC300
3.0th class supernode = BTC100

Sorry for spamming this thread, but the first thing that came to mind after seeing the original was this:

Rampion
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May 04, 2013, 10:13:14 PM
 #4258

but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.

Ok man, accept the bet.
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May 04, 2013, 10:16:29 PM
 #4259

I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because they're is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.

It is marvellous that almost nobody dares to believe simple math, in the context that it would make them insanely wealthy. It is almost as if the becoming rich part was detrimental to bitcoin adoption...Sad Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today... Roll Eyes

1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation
1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation
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May 04, 2013, 10:18:30 PM
 #4260

Ok man, accept the bet.

You are not being very smart if you turn down a sure 1 bitcoin, or a sure 10 million dollars. What exactly do you need?  Huh
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