Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

So I guess you are out and on the sideline then?

I'm in cash only with my trading stash (5% of my savings -who are still in BTC).
I won't pick any bottom higher that 4K.

Is not a little high?

maybe low 3000s is a better target:
https://www.tradingview.com/i/ep3NGzgD/

Good luck with that.  I have not yet seen the trend change, merely because we are pausing at the top for a while.... That is not unusual and does not necessitate any kind of significant correction of 40% or 50%, even though one may come, but 20% would be more reasonable, ... even though in the end, anything is fair game in bitcoinlandia... .

the guy doing the chart has been calling a short since the past 2 months.
Then again he might be right, they say a broken clock is right twice a day...

Exactly, there are all kinds of dumb shits proclaiming various low corrections, and from time to time they are right.  This has been going on since about $250, yet it has been increasingly difficult for them to be correct since $250 because we have been in a bull market since $250 and more or less confirmed when prices shot above $500 in May 2016 and have not returned below that price - even though there were a few attempts early on to attempt to get down there.

Now, $3000 has become the new $500... Sure, the fuck, $3k is possible, but it remains quite a bit of a stretch to have any kind of realistic expectation of $3k when we have considerable and ongoing upwards buying pressure.  Any little dip in prices, they say:  "here it comes."  "it is coming this time."  blah blah blah.

I have active buy orders set down to $2600, so surely, I am not Ill-prepared for the possibility of such correction; however, it seems quite low probabilities for those orders to be filled any time in the near future, and it seems even worse to actually spout out expectations that they are going to be filled - for example giving such probability anywhere greater than a 40% chance seems to be quite pie in the sky in my thinking, when maybe they have less than a 30% chance of being filled, and some of these nutjobs are talking as if the odds of such fills were in the 80% to 100% territory.

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[ragnar0k]

Here's 6k 

[rjclarke2000]

Just thought I'd tell you this one. I'm sure you all have similar stories.

A friend of mine back in 2013 laughed and joked about Bitcoin and I was laughed too for buying it and preaching to everyone that this will be big. This friend then joined forces with other friends and we all went snowboarding in Feb 2014 and once again Bitcoin was mentioned (not by me this time) and once again it was all a big joke.

This friend asked me around 6 weeks ago how to buy bitcoin so I sent him all the information he needed but without the preaching. In my mind preaching about bitcoin is a bit 2013 for me and not something I do anymore, in fact I try not to talk about it at all. This friend said he has money saved up and was going to buy some btc (at least 1 coin, maybe more).
My reply was that's great news, someone I can chat btc with and I wished him luck.

Today he send me messages saying he didn't buy and now wants to buy some.


Do I bother to help? I feel like he is wasting my time. He's asking me when is the right time to buy and what would be a good dip to buy?

Personally I think he likes the idea of owning btc but doesn't have the balls to push the buy button.

Another issue is I don't think he has done any research of his own at all.

Who else has a similar story?

[European Central Bank]

Do I bother to help?

nope. there've been plenty of chances in the past. he didn't take any. he probably won't now.

[JayJuanGee]

Good luck with that.  I have not yet seen the trend change, merely because we are pausing at the top for a while.... That is not unusual and does not necessitate any kind of significant correction of 40% or 50%, even though one may come, but 20% would be more reasonable, ... even though in the end, anything is fair game in bitcoinlandia... .

It's not much for the TA. It's the forking attacks, the FUD and announced terrorist crackdowns by TPTB ( https://www.coindesk.com/jeff-sessions-bitcoin-use-is-a-big-problem/ ), it's for the technical weak points of BTC (a hundred billions $ project kept alive by some voluntary full node runners? seriously?), and the fact that ultimately it's backed only by faith while every day new better and improved -and cheap- coins are made. 

All this is telling me to not bet the farm on BTC, even if I'm still >80% in it.

No one is telling anyone to bet the farm on BTC; however, you talk about $3k as if it has some kind of high probability of happening, and apparently your portfolio does not represent such pessimism.  So maybe you should temper your language a bit to be better in line with your portfolio holdings rather than painting some kind of doom and gloom scenario as if it were pending and imminent.

Actually, I agree with your point that a 50%-ish correction is not necessarily unrealistic, but we already had a 40% correction, recently, and there still remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the severity of the threat of any of the upmanship attacks on bitcoin... yeah they keep upping and upping the ante in terms of their attempts for destruction and disruption, but in the end, are these threats going to materially play out in a meaningful way? In that regard, you better fucking hodl onto your coins because even if we are getting down, we may well get up before we get down... so you are going to want to sell some more priro to any potential 50% or greater correction - that may well come after a further pump - even a 2x pump.

So no one is saying that BTC is the be all end all coin.. or that these attacks are not likely to have any effect.. but it is a matter of when.. and what might happen first before the supposed calamity that you proclaim kicks in.

[Torque]

Do I bother to help?

nope. there've been plenty of chances in the past. he didn't take any. he probably won't now.

Not to mention these people have the "only buying to get rich quick" day-trader mentality. They have no intention of holding or spending their btc on something, only selling for fiat at the first sign of a rise. They don't even really care to do research to understand what Bitcoin is and why it is revolutionary and important. If the price was falling instead of rising, this friend would have zero interest in Bitcoin, just like when it was all a "big joke" to him.

[walou]

3000

[rjclarke2000]

Do I bother to help?

nope. there've been plenty of chances in the past. he didn't take any. he probably won't now.

Not to mention these people have the "only buying to get rich quick" day-trader mentality. They have no intention of holding or spending their btc on something, only selling for fiat at the first sign of a rise. They don't even really care to understand what Bitcoin is and why it is important. If the price was falling instead of rising, this friend would have zero interest.

You are absolutely correct there  

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Just thought I'd tell you this one. I'm sure you all have similar stories.

A friend of mine back in 2013 laughed and joked about Bitcoin and I was laughed too for buying it and preaching to everyone that this will be big. This friend then joined forces with other friends and we all went snowboarding in Feb 2014 and once again Bitcoin was mentioned (not by me this time) and once again it was all a big joke.

This friend asked me around 6 weeks ago how to buy bitcoin so I sent him all the information he needed but without the preaching. In my mind preaching about bitcoin is a bit 2013 for me and not something I do anymore, in fact I try not to talk about it at all. This friend said he has money saved up and was going to buy some btc (at least 1 coin, maybe more).
My reply was that's great news, someone I can chat btc with and I wished him luck.

Today he send me messages saying he didn't buy and now wants to buy some.


Do I bother to help? I feel like he is wasting my time. He's asking me when is the right time to buy and what would be a good dip to buy?

Personally I think he likes the idea of owning btc but doesn't have the balls to push the buy button.

Another issue is I don't think he has done any research of his own at all.

Who else has a similar story?

I used to enjoy making fun of myself. It's only money, it's a deadly interesting project, Bitcorn this and Bitcorn that. Now I don't know how I'm supposed to behave. I'm a Bitcoin elder now. Can I still call doom for no reason? Do I change my kicky pseudonym? I, too, feel the weight of responsibility. 

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

Just thought I'd tell you this one. I'm sure you all have similar stories.

A friend of mine back in 2013 laughed and joked about Bitcoin and I was laughed too for buying it and preaching to everyone that this will be big. This friend then joined forces with other friends and we all went snowboarding in Feb 2014 and once again Bitcoin was mentioned (not by me this time) and once again it was all a big joke.

This friend asked me around 6 weeks ago how to buy bitcoin so I sent him all the information he needed but without the preaching. In my mind preaching about bitcoin is a bit 2013 for me and not something I do anymore, in fact I try not to talk about it at all. This friend said he has money saved up and was going to buy some btc (at least 1 coin, maybe more).
My reply was that's great news, someone I can chat btc with and I wished him luck.

Today he send me messages saying he didn't buy and now wants to buy some.


Do I bother to help? I feel like he is wasting my time. He's asking me when is the right time to buy and what would be a good dip to buy?

Personally I think he likes the idea of owning btc but doesn't have the balls to push the buy button.

Another issue is I don't think he has done any research of his own at all.

Who else has a similar story?

I used to enjoy making fun of myself. It's only money, it's a deadly interesting project, Bitcorn this and Bitcorn that. Now I don't know how I'm supposed to behave. I'm a Bitcoin elder now. Can I still call doom for no reason? Do I change my kicky pseudonym? I, too, feel the weight of responsibility. 

This thread would only be half as fun without you BMB 

[ivomm]

"Bitfinex will implement a Chain Split Token for Bitcoin Gold. A formal announcement will follow shortly."

https://twitter.com/bitfinex/status/922488259070038019

"Bitcoin Gold/BTG futures (0.085 BTC) higher than Bitcoin Cash/BCH (0.055). http://yobit.net/en/trade/BTG/BTC … and @bitfinex adding soon."
https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/922569768770478080

"Please disregard the prior tweet about our stance on BTG. Kraken has not made an official determination on BTG. We will announce plans soon."
https://twitter.com/krakenfx/status/922493817776898049

The previous tweet was:


 

P.S. After the tweet on bitfinex, bitcoin recovered from 5700-ish to 6000-ish...  

[spiderbrain]

Just thought I'd tell you this one. I'm sure you all have similar stories.
<snip>

Yes, I've heard this, now they listen, after missing out on 10/100/1000x. It's good when people are big enough to admit that they were wrong about something, but this sounds like a classic "top" conversation to me. Tell him to get in just as people are despairing after the next crash, between 1-2k, and wait 4 years for the next halving. It's hard to tell how much money there is to make at the moment, it might crash from here, or from 20k, we'll know in a few weeks ,probably. Bitcoin often reminds me of the princess bride

“Good night, Westley. Good work. Sleep well. I'll most likely kill you in the morning.”

[JayJuanGee]

Just thought I'd tell you this one. I'm sure you all have similar stories.

A friend of mine back in 2013 laughed and joked about Bitcoin and I was laughed too for buying it and preaching to everyone that this will be big. This friend then joined forces with other friends and we all went snowboarding in Feb 2014 and once again Bitcoin was mentioned (not by me this time) and once again it was all a big joke.

This friend asked me around 6 weeks ago how to buy bitcoin so I sent him all the information he needed but without the preaching. In my mind preaching about bitcoin is a bit 2013 for me and not something I do anymore, in fact I try not to talk about it at all. This friend said he has money saved up and was going to buy some btc (at least 1 coin, maybe more).
My reply was that's great news, someone I can chat btc with and I wished him luck.

Today he send me messages saying he didn't buy and now wants to buy some.


Do I bother to help? I feel like he is wasting my time. He's asking me when is the right time to buy and what would be a good dip to buy?

Personally I think he likes the idea of owning btc but doesn't have the balls to push the buy button.

Another issue is I don't think he has done any research of his own at all.

Who else has a similar story?

I have quite a few variations of the same story, and I only tell the folks to dollar cost average buy and to buy on dips and to develop a long term accumulation strategy that will work for them and their finances. 

Probably less than 1/10 of the persons that I make these suggestions take any kind of action to press the "buy" button, and sometimes if they do press the "buy" button, they will sell out after a 20% to 50% price appreciation because their heart really is not in long term planning or even faith in the whole bitcoin system (including that they are still getting bullshit misinformation from various mainstream sources)

[xhomerx10]

Here comes $6000 again!

 Seventh time's the charm!  It has to take one of these times...

[rjclarke2000]

Just thought I'd tell you this one. I'm sure you all have similar stories.

A friend of mine back in 2013 laughed and joked about Bitcoin and I was laughed too for buying it and preaching to everyone that this will be big. This friend then joined forces with other friends and we all went snowboarding in Feb 2014 and once again Bitcoin was mentioned (not by me this time) and once again it was all a big joke.

This friend asked me around 6 weeks ago how to buy bitcoin so I sent him all the information he needed but without the preaching. In my mind preaching about bitcoin is a bit 2013 for me and not something I do anymore, in fact I try not to talk about it at all. This friend said he has money saved up and was going to buy some btc (at least 1 coin, maybe more).
My reply was that's great news, someone I can chat btc with and I wished him luck.

Today he send me messages saying he didn't buy and now wants to buy some.


Do I bother to help? I feel like he is wasting my time. He's asking me when is the right time to buy and what would be a good dip to buy?

Personally I think he likes the idea of owning btc but doesn't have the balls to push the buy button.

Another issue is I don't think he has done any research of his own at all.

Who else has a similar story?

I have quite a few variations of the same story, and I only tell the folks to dollar cost average buy and to buy on dips and to develop a long term accumulation strategy that will work for them and their finances. 

Probably less than 1/10 of the persons that I make these suggestions take any kind of action to press the "buy" button, and sometimes if they do press the "buy" button, they will sell out after a 20% to 50% price appreciation because their heart really is not in long term planning or even faith in the whole bitcoin system (including that they are still getting bullshit misinformation from various mainstream sources)

Everyone who's quoted my story I fully agree with.

I also very much agree with the mainstream sources bit JJG. The news anchors are such puppets and so are the people involved.

Some of the bitcoin stories on the news or radio are totally clueless and I don't even think the people they get their information from even begin to know what bitcoin is.

[rjclarke2000]

Here's a question to anyone partially intelligent.

What's the deal with getting bgold when my btc is on a Trezor?

All I am reading about is no replay protection and it's a bit unsettling to say the least. I bought the Trezor for 2 reasons

1) security

2) ease of claiming coins during a fork as last time I had paper wallets and it was a total kick in the plums trying to set up new wallets, move coins and enter old priv key into bcash software wallet.


It doesn't seem as easy as pressing a "coin split" button and then "send to exchange" button as I had hoped.

Live and learn.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Here's a question to anyone partially intelligent.

...

*Looks other way, whistles

[conspirosphere.tk]

No one is telling anyone to bet the farm on BTC; however, you talk about $3k as if it has some kind of high probability of happening, and apparently your portfolio does not represent such pessimism.  So maybe you should temper your language a bit to be better in line with your portfolio holdings rather than painting some kind of doom and gloom scenario as if it were pending and imminent.

Actually, I agree with your point that a 50%-ish correction is not necessarily unrealistic, but we already had a 40% correction, recently, and there still remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the severity of the threat of any of the upmanship attacks on bitcoin... yeah they keep upping and upping the ante in terms of their attempts for destruction and disruption, but in the end, are these threats going to materially play out in a meaningful way? In that regard, you better fucking hodl onto your coins because even if we are getting down, we may well get up before we get down... so you are going to want to sell some more priro to any potential 50% or greater correction - that may well come after a further pump - even a 2x pump.

So no one is saying that BTC is the be all end all coin.. or that these attacks are not likely to have any effect.. but it is a matter of when.. and what might happen first before the supposed calamity that you proclaim kicks in.

Even a sudden 50% correction would be not doom &gloom. Quite the contrary for those prepared for it and still long term bullish.
I already posted before why a significant correction looks due soon (we had a couple recently in july and september, and now the price is quite high above the 100-day SMA looking ripe for some cashing in). Moreover the technicals and candlesticks patterns at this moment are not so bullish.

So I'm now keeping some cash on exchanges, which is not so bad (unless it's finex: https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/wash-trading-bitcoin-part-ii-who-and-why-is-someone-wash-trading-on-bitfinex-e1c7b5e0b3bb ). If I won't use it to buy cheap coins I'll find other uses for it. The hardliners who are all-in instead will be REKT at the first major correction and will have no dry power to spend on cheap coins (or anything else).

[fortune143]

This friend asked me around 6 weeks ago how to buy bitcoin so I sent him all the information he needed but without the preaching. In my mind preaching about bitcoin is a bit 2013 for me and not something I do anymore ...

You're a better person than me - a few months ago some loved ones asked me about Bitcoin after ridiculing/ignoring my interest in it since 2014. I said I'd be happy to help, then couldn't resist a little "well well, look at this, how the tide has turned, how ironic, oooh" moment. Totally put them off and never heard Bitcoin mentioned again.

Let this be a lesson to those that don't know, save the self-congratulatory back patting for r/bitcoin, or just never.

Do I bother to help?

I would say yes do please still help, when it comes to Bitcoin/crypto the more the merrier. The thing is not to feel invested in your friends choices: if your friend wants to trade his coin away then that's his decision, it's all part of the journey. One day he'll stumble upon a sound investment strategy (or he'll ask you  ) and who knows maybe he'll become a zealot too!

[JayJuanGee]

No one is telling anyone to bet the farm on BTC; however, you talk about $3k as if it has some kind of high probability of happening, and apparently your portfolio does not represent such pessimism.  So maybe you should temper your language a bit to be better in line with your portfolio holdings rather than painting some kind of doom and gloom scenario as if it were pending and imminent.

Actually, I agree with your point that a 50%-ish correction is not necessarily unrealistic, but we already had a 40% correction, recently, and there still remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the severity of the threat of any of the upmanship attacks on bitcoin... yeah they keep upping and upping the ante in terms of their attempts for destruction and disruption, but in the end, are these threats going to materially play out in a meaningful way? In that regard, you better fucking hodl onto your coins because even if we are getting down, we may well get up before we get down... so you are going to want to sell some more priro to any potential 50% or greater correction - that may well come after a further pump - even a 2x pump.

So no one is saying that BTC is the be all end all coin.. or that these attacks are not likely to have any effect.. but it is a matter of when.. and what might happen first before the supposed calamity that you proclaim kicks in.

Even a sudden 50% correction would be not doom &gloom. Quite the contrary for those prepared for it and still long term bullish.
I already posted before why a significant correction looks due soon (we had a couple recently in july and september, and now the price is quite high above the 100-day SMA looking ripe for some cashing in). Moreover the technicals and candlesticks patterns at this moment are not so bullish.

So I'm now keeping some cash on exchanges, which is not so bad (unless it's finex: https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/wash-trading-bitcoin-part-ii-who-and-why-is-someone-wash-trading-on-bitfinex-e1c7b5e0b3bb ). If I won't use it to buy cheap coins I'll find other uses for it. The hardliners who are all-in instead will be REKT at the first major correction and will have no dry power to spend on cheap coins.

Maybe that is part of the problem with your previous lines of posts?  You seem to be trying to characterize people as hardliners?  As if we do not have any plan for down, and you are the only one adequately planning for down? 

Yeah, sure, there are some of those people (bulls that you seem to be describing) that are expecting down and are giving little to no weight to the possibility of down.  so what.  Let them bet everything on up, but I really doubt that there are as many of those supposed hardliners as you expect, and many folks who are preparing or planning for up do not expect any kind of straight line movement for up, and they also might not feel comfortable selling 20% of their stash, like you did, because they have been screwed before by selling too much and then not being prepared for up.

So, anyhow, you come off as a bit of a snake oil salesman who is trying to get others to sell a bit in order to better prepare for down, and in that regard kind of lecturing some kind of supposed higher wisdom that you are proclaiming.  Am I wrong?

I agree that everyone should prepare for both up and down, but if someone does not feel comfortable selling, then why sit there and try to pressure them and rub it in, except seems that you want to talk your book here, rather than realistically share BTC price direction predictions that you have.