Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bifle]

I can only imagine what the price is going to be 3 years from now. Post halving.

Well even if you consider the really worst case of what it could be in late 2020, I think $10-15K/btc would be the bottom. Which by all measures would still be fkn phenomenal. Outside of some black swan, I cannot envision a scenario where it would be any lower than that.

Which would of course make many of us rich AF. Personally I’ve always looked at around 2021 as my get out point (75% sell off maybe).

Fingers crossed guys.

$10K/BTC in late 2020 ?  It seems to be a worst case of the worst case, regarding the evolution of bitcoin.... 
   $10K/BTC is expected for next year, isn't it ?

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[rjclarke2000]

I can only imagine what the price is going to be 3 years from now. Post halving.

Well even if you consider the really worst case of what it could be in late 2020, I think $10-15K/btc would be the bottom. Which by all measures would still be fkn phenomenal. Outside of some black swan, I cannot envision a scenario where it would be any lower than that.

Which would of course make many of us rich AF. Personally I’ve always looked at around 2021 as my get out point (75% sell off maybe).

Fingers crossed guys.

To be honest, becoming a millionaire in pounds sterling by 2021 is not too far fetched. What a ride.

I think I am passed the point where I could sell my stash. The thought of not owning btc is horrible.

I think a 60-75% sell off is not too extreme. My real goal would be to be able to buy property etc with bitcoin in my area.


Edit. I hope JJG sees this post as I have put in some percentages for him.

[rjclarke2000]

Few beers at 10k LFC?

[bitcoinPsycho]

I can only imagine what the price is going to be 3 years from now. Post halving.

This time next year after the halving Rodney, we’ll be millionaires

dont be a plonker . will take 2 years

[conspirosphere.tk]

it's all fault of the japs if I don't get my correction soon:



and the fail in FUDding:

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Few beers at 10k LFC?

Yeah definitely, WHEN we get there we’ll meet up half way between where we live.

[600watt]

I can only imagine what the price is going to be 3 years from now. Post halving.

Well even if you consider the really worst case of what it could be in late 2020, I think $10-15K/btc would be the bottom. Which by all measures would still be fkn phenomenal. Outside of some black swan, I cannot envision a scenario where it would be any lower than that.

Which would of course make many of us rich AF. Personally I’ve always looked at around 2021 as my get out point (75% sell off maybe).

Fingers crossed guys.

i also always thought that a decent "exit-strategy" is important when it comes to bitcoin. lately, though, i began to question this. when bitcoin reaches $20k, it is so well established that everyone wants bitcoin. thus, much more vendors, online shops and other folks will accept it.

the multiyear downtrends that bitcoin has suffered are the reason for the "exit-strategy" thinking. and of course, that would just be a temporary exit to buy back more btc when the downtrend is over.

[Torque]

I think I am passed the point where I could sell my stash. The thought of not owning btc is horrible.

I think a 60-75% sell off is not too extreme. My real goal would be to be able to buy property etc with bitcoin in my area.

Although you guys can do what you want, I would really encourage you to think differently. First, selling even a half million $$ worth of bitcoin would incur a HUGE tax penalty right off the top. You took all the risk with your own money, so why would you give your tax agency 40% of all of your gains? It's free money you just gave them.

Secondly, yearly inflation is way higher than most govt's published figures. In the U.S. the actually yearly inflation rate is probably between 6-7%, with spikes in certain goods and services upwards of 9-10%/year. And inflation is rising globally and will continue to get worse and worse. Is your yearly income consistently increasing by that much every year to compensate for this? I highly doubt it. It would have to increase by that much at a minimum every single year until you retire (age 65) just to keep up. And the reality is that citizens' wages will continue to stay flat or even go down in the coming decades.

Bottom line, $500K fiat in 2020 will be only worth about $250K of purchasing power in 2035. So holding large amounts of fiat is ill advised. You want your purchasing power to stay flat or increase over time, not decrease. Holding bitcoin long term will beat the snot out of future inflation. Personally for me there is no "exit strategy", I will continue to buy and hold as long as Bitcoin is around, and only spend what I need to live day-to-day, month-to-month, etc.

And if you want to own a house or land, it would be smarter to only liquidate enough bitcoin for a sizable down payment, and then get a really good low fixed rate 30yr loan for the rest. Bitcoin's yearly returns would handily beat, actually crush any 3-4% yearly interest on the loan. Plus both the house/land AND your left over bitcoin would both be increasing in value relative to fiat while you were still making loan payments.

[AlcoHoDL]

Although you guys can do what you want, I would really encourage you to think differently. First, selling even a half million $$ worth of bitcoin would incur a HUGE tax penalty right off the top.

Secondly, yearly inflation is way higher than most govt's published figures. In the U.S. the actually yearly inflation rate is probably between 6-7%, with spikes in certain goods and services upwards of 9-10%/year. And inflation is rising globally and will continue to get worse and worse. And citizens' wages will continue to stay flat or even go down in the coming decades.

Bottom line, $500K in 2020 will be only worth about $250K of purchasing power in 2035. So holding large amounts of fiat is ill advised. You want your purchasing power to stay flat or increase over time, not decrease. Holding bitcoin long term will beat the snot out of future inflation. Personally for me there is no "exit strategy", I will continue to buy and hold as long as Bitcoin is around, and only spend what I need to live day-to-day, month-to-month, etc.

And if you want to own a house or land, it would be smarter to only liquidate enough bitcoin for a sizable down payment, and then get a really good low fixed rate 30yr loan for the rest. Bitcoin's yearly returns would handily beat, actually crush any 3-4% yearly interest on the loan.

Exactly this!

Just spend as much as you need for your living expenses. I do not have a desire for super-expensive purchases. I already have a decent house and car. I was never interested in luxurious stuff. Not my style. I just want financial freedom and the ability to do what I want, not what others want me to do (day job). Once this is achieved, I'm happy.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think I am passed the point where I could sell my stash. The thought of not owning btc is horrible.

I think a 60-75% sell off is not too extreme. My real goal would be to be able to buy property etc with bitcoin in my area.

Although you guys can do what you want, I would really encourage you to think differently. First, selling even a half million $$ worth of bitcoin would incur a HUGE tax penalty right off the top. You took all the risk with your own money, so why would you give your tax agency 40% of all of your gains? It's free money you just gave them.

Secondly, yearly inflation is way higher than most govt's published figures. In the U.S. the actually yearly inflation rate is probably between 6-7%, with spikes in certain goods and services upwards of 9-10%/year. And inflation is rising globally and will continue to get worse and worse. And citizens' wages will continue to stay flat or even go down in the coming decades.

Bottom line, $500K fiat in 2020 will be only worth about $250K of purchasing power in 2035. So holding large amounts of fiat is ill advised. You want your purchasing power to stay flat or increase over time, not decrease. Holding bitcoin long term will beat the snot out of future inflation. Personally for me there is no "exit strategy", I will continue to buy and hold as long as Bitcoin is around, and only spend what I need to live day-to-day, month-to-month, etc.

And if you want to own a house or land, it would be smarter to only liquidate enough bitcoin for a sizable down payment, and then get a really good low fixed rate 30yr loan for the rest. Bitcoin's yearly returns would handily beat, actually crush any 3-4% yearly interest on the loan. Plus both the house/land AND your left over bitcoin would both be increasing in value relative to fiat while you were still making loan payments.

Interesting.

Totally makes sense to be honest that.

[d_eddie]

And if you want to own a house or land, it would be smarter to only liquidate enough bitcoin for a sizable down payment, and then get a really good low fixed rate 30yr loan for the rest. Bitcoin's yearly returns would handily beat, actually crush any 3-4% yearly interest on the loan. Plus both the house/land AND your left over bitcoin would both be increasing in value relative to fiat while you were still making loan payments.

Spot on.

[Paashaas]

I rather be a Bitcoin millionair then converting it all back into fiat

[gentlemand]

And if you want to own a house or land, it would be smarter to only liquidate enough bitcoin for a sizable down payment, and then get a really good low fixed rate 30yr loan for the rest. Bitcoin's yearly returns would handily beat, actually crush any 3-4% yearly interest on the loan. Plus both the house/land AND your left over bitcoin would both be increasing in value relative to fiat while you were still making loan payments.

Spot on

That's acting like bitcoin has it in the bag already and for eternity.

Anyone who plunges headlong into anything with that assumption has spent too long here.

Fiat is of course junk, but i would not expect to service a loan on theoretical gains, only fully realised ones in which case i don't need it anyway.

[RealMachasm]

And if you want to own a house or land, it would be smarter to only liquidate enough bitcoin for a sizable down payment, and then get a really good low fixed rate 30yr loan for the rest. Bitcoin's yearly returns would handily beat, actually crush any 3-4% yearly interest on the loan. Plus both the house/land AND your left over bitcoin would both be increasing in value relative to fiat while you were still making loan payments.

Spot on.

Strangely this is exactly what I did when purchasing a new car. I could easily have bought the car using only a small percentage of my BTC holdings but figured that it would be better to get a loan then pay the monthly payment for the next two years (even if I have to use my BTC to do this with, which I wont) as the increases in the value of holding my BTC would be far greater than the loan repayment. That is when the two years are up I am sure that the value of my BTC at that point would be worth a lot more than what the loan cost me.

edit: looks like this goes against gentalmand's advise!

[ragnar0k]

Looks RSK is coming with an ICO pre sale in december this year.
Decky: "they are going to create tools to make porting from Ethereum network over to Bitcoin seemless for existing coins"

So what do you think guys? Bullish? The Eth killer??
An ICO on Bitcoin. Do you like it or not??

ICOs on bitcoin...Is this a nightmare?
I hope I'm waking up sweating soon

[d_eddie]

Bullshit. It is exactly what happened. Signaling support for segwit was anemic. It was not until the NYA agreement and signaling of S2X that segwit amassed any provable support. That is what occurred, and it is clearly within the record.

NYA signaling helped to stir things up, yes, but only because it became apparent that the miners couldn't stop it and had to swallow - oops, embrace it. Segwit is good, long-term good, but myopic miners can't see beyond their weekly revenue and were herded by selfish Chinese businessmen. Yes, I know,  our narratives on this matter differ. This is just incidental, and not my main point.

we, the users giving up mining - was more or less unavoidable, given the financial and existential investment in becoming a pro miner.

I don't think that is true. Who here still mines? Show of hands? I know there are some here that mine on a limited scale.

But more to the point, there was nothing preventing each of us from jumping in and mining. Sure, it seems an insurmountable expense today (but is it really? what about the small scale miners in existence?) but at the dawn of the pro miner era, there were no pro miners. Or IOW, when the mining gets tough, the tough get pro. Yes, we abdicated.

How can you be competitive at mining today? Come on, be honest in your assessments as you are flawless with your math. There maybe a few of us still doing it because of previous commitment or individual mentality, but mining simply isn't for the masses anymore*. Which was instead the point of Nakamoto's original vision. He was right on the math, but predicting the future is for wizards, not for scientists.

*Unless a change in POW helps to equalize mining power by making costs harder to scale. One RAM bank, one vote. RAM speed can't grow as CPU speed did. There are several cryptohash algorithms where you can impose a bottleneck on memory size and/or sequential memory operations. I bet this is the way POW is headed to, if any change is going to happen.

I want to understand the ultimate reason why you support your claim. What do you expect the normal user could gain from something like S2X?

As I have been saying for literally years, the stupid centrally-planned production quota that limits capacity is stifling adoption. I expect S2X (in comparison to S1X) to allow double the number of transactions per second, per hour, per day. Therefore reenabling use cases that have been obsoleted by Cores insane Raspberry Pi fetish. More use cases = more usability. Pretty simple calculus really. Oh - and lower fees besides.

What you call the "insane Raspberry Pi fetish" is the David-against-Goliath guarantee that verifying and keeping the big guys in check has a cost small enough for anyone to be able to afford it! No mining rig required. That's exactly the point of decentralization.

You want greater adoption? You're not alone, jbreher. We all do, of course! But if adoption comes at the price of pushing Joe "David" Average out of the loop, it's just Visa-like adoption, not financial freedom-adoption. Can't you see that? That's what I meant when I half-jokingly invoked Jeff Bezos' role as a Deus ex machina savior - "Here's adoption for you my children (in a celestial Amazonesque voice)... now go in peace and stop the silliness about big blocks... (epic THX thunder)."

It ain't Bitcoin Cash, but it's double the goodness of S1X.

If big blocks are what you really think you need, you've got BCH already. What's the point of S2X then?

Besides, we've shown that bigger blocks are not a problem. Why the obstinance on the part of Core? I think they're merely afraid of losing face.

Shown where? Bigger blocks are indeed a problem if usage ramps up. Latency, bandwidth and mass memory requirement would skyrocket for simple Joe "David" Average verification, not only for mining. Censorship resistance would be seriously impacted.

I refuse to believe you don't see that - you're too smart not to. That's why I was asking for your true motives.

I guess you just don't want to tell us.

[btcbeliever]

I rather be a Bitcoin millionair then converting it all back into fiat

you mean have a million bitcoins?

[Torque]

That's acting like bitcoin has it in the bag already and for eternity.

Anyone who plunges headlong into anything with that assumption has spent too long here.

Fiat is of course junk, but i would not expect to service a loan on theoretical gains, only fully realised ones in which case i don't need it anyway.

Let's say you buy the house right now, using 20% down payment in liquidated bitcoin, and financing the other 80% for 30 yrs. The rest you kept in bitcoin. Even if bitcoin ONLY did a 10X from here over the next 30 years(!), your average yearly bitcoin gains would still crush the interest payments on the loan. And you can pay off your loan early at any time, you don't have to wait 30 years.

But if you don't believe Bitcoin will still be around and be a "thing" in 30 years, well then you must not believe that it will disrupt and revolutionize finance at all.

[HanvanBitcoin]

That's acting like bitcoin has it in the bag already and for eternity.

Anyone who plunges headlong into anything with that assumption has spent too long here.

Fiat is of course junk, but i would not expect to service a loan on theoretical gains, only fully realised ones in which case i don't need it anyway.

Let's say you buy the house right now, using 20% down payment in liquidated bitcoin, and financing the other 80%. The rest you kept in bitcoin. Even if bitcoin ONLY did a 10X from here over the next 30 years(!), you would still crush the interest payments on the loan. And you can pay off your loan early at any time.

But if you don't believe Bitcoin will still be around and be a "thing" in 30 years, well then you must not believe that it will disrupt and revolutionize finance at all.

This is exactly what i did this year. Cashed out some BTC to pay 20%, took an morgage for the remaining 80%. Everything else stays in BTCitcoin 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I rather be a Bitcoin millionair then converting it all back into fiat

you mean have a million bitcoins?

Nobody is going to have a million bitcoin’s except maybe Satoshi & I’m not sure he even has that many. He means holding over 1 million USD in bitcoin.