Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we're back where we were before the AltcoinGold snapshot/"fork" nonsense... currently $5938USD/$7616CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Even AltCash is up a little at $340USD/$435CAD (Coinmarketcap).

It's time to get back up over $6k and then a new ATH.

Hopefully people will realize now that silly little forks are like China banning Bitcoin again for the umpteenth time.

Honey badger don't give a shit. Go Bitcoin go.

[1714501622]

1714501622

[Raja_MBZ]

I don't know why but I literally hate to have the free coins from hard-forks...

Anybody around like me?

[starmman]

I don't know why but I literally hate to have the free coins from hard-forks...

Anybody around like me?

I feel like that with BTG - didn't stop me selling them on the exchanges that already started trading. I managed to sell at 0.08 - price is now 0.017 and falling

[erre]

I don't know why but I literally hate to have the free coins from hard-forks...

Anybody around like me?

I feel like that with BTG - didn't stop me selling them on the exchanges that already started trading. I managed to sell at 0.08 - price is now 0.017 and falling

That jeans You transfered your btc on your before 23 right? Can You withdraw your btc now?

[starmman]

I don't know why but I literally hate to have the free coins from hard-forks...

Anybody around like me?

I feel like that with BTG - didn't stop me selling them on the exchanges that already started trading. I managed to sell at 0.08 - price is now 0.017 and falling

That jeans You transfered your btc on your before 23 right? Can You withdraw your btc now?

Seems like I can - most the BTC on that exchange is in orders marked for trading - so not planning to withdraw for a while

EDIT: All BTC was there before 23rd

[jojo69]

I understand your reasoning Torque, and for a lot of people it may indeed be a very attractive alternative.  For myself I just have a two word response however...


fuck   banks

[Karartma1]

@Torque
Very interesting tips on basic economics for our financial life.

@Jimbo
Can you please explain why are you keeping on giving updates on Altcash prices?
Are you still invested in that? 

[Ibian]

I don't know why but I literally hate to have the free coins from hard-forks...

Anybody around like me?

It's free money but getting to it is work and effort and presents some amount of risk if cold stashing is involved. It's almost like a form of cognitive dissonance. Take the free money, but take a small risk of making a mistake with your big stash and also irritation over the whole thing.

Fortunately my trezor and ledger just arrived. Gonna play around with them during my week long vacation on Cyprus, save some of my cold stash on em, mitigate whatever risk and then probably dump all my clonecoins when I get home.

[Ibian]

I understand your reasoning Torque, and for a lot of people it may indeed be a very attractive alternative.  For myself I just have a two word response however...


fuck   banks

You both make compelling arguments. Torque has the numbers right, assuming nothing goes wrong over a 30 year period. But, well, fuck em.

Also no bank would give me a meaningful loan with everything I own in bitcoin.

[yefi]

But if you don't believe Bitcoin will still be around and be a "thing" in 30 years, well then you must not believe that it will disrupt and revolutionize finance at all.

The most precious asset we have in the world isn't our bitcoin, it is our time. I'm not spending my life as a pauper so I can enjoy a multimillionaire lifestyle when I'm beyond my prime.

[jojo69]

I understand your reasoning Torque, and for a lot of people it may indeed be a very attractive alternative.  For myself I just have a two word response however...


fuck   banks

You both make compelling arguments. Torque has the numbers right, assuming nothing goes wrong over a 30 year period. But, well, fuck em.

Also no bank would give me a meaningful loan with everything I own in bitcoin.

Right?  If you have been doing your due diligence to Gualt out and withdraw your effort from the warmongering kleptocracy for any length of time there will be no loan forthcoming.

[Searing]

I don't know why but I literally hate to have the free coins from hard-forks...

Anybody around like me?

My CPA said to ignore it, like a stock split. If you sell a taxable event on the whole gain. Wait a year
and a day for normal capital gains. The IRS is rabid about money from nothing.

[jbreher]

Incorrect. I am quite happy with BCH. As it has capacity exceeding current demand. Just as Bitcoin had from the time satoshi created it until about 18 months ago when the new membership of core allowed a stupid production quota to limit capacity and stifle adoption. I'm a little disappointed with the level of adoption so far, but I am patient. It will come around.

If you have BCH and are happy, and you think adoption of BCH will grow, then you don't need Bitcoin to change anything. Why should you care.

Do you understand nothing about probabilities and certainty of future events? I advocate S2X over S1X as a hedge.

It's not your concern anymore. So stfu about it.

I will not stfu about it. Tough shit for you.

Back to /ignore for you, idiot

Aww... you've hurt my feelings. Again.

[jbreher]

On Finex you’ve not bought 2X you’ve bought a token representing 2x , if 2x doesn’t happen you lose your money and those who have shorted it to you make a profit

Indeed. This renders as zero any value it might have otherwise had as a futures prediction market.

[jbreher]

Although you guys can do what you want, I would really encourage you to think differently. First, selling even a half million $$ worth of bitcoin would incur a HUGE tax penalty right off the top. You took all the risk with your own money, so why would you give your tax agency 40% of all of your gains?

Hmm. Long term cap gains 'round these parts is more like half of that figure. I'm considering wintering in Puerto Rico in the future - 183 days qualifies for citizenship, and LT cap gains there are a drop in the bucket. They get a special US Legislative deferment on federal cap gains.

Holding bitcoin long term will beat the snot out of future inflation.

Such is my belief as well.

Personally for me there is no "exit strategy", I will continue to buy and hold as long as Bitcoin is around, and only spend what I need to live day-to-day, month-to-month, etc.

That is my plan as well, though for me, the accumulation phase is essentially done and dusted. When I am ready for more fiat, I trade the volatility for a bit (as described upthread). I can usually come out of it with the same or more Bitcoin, and the fiat I need.

And if you want to own a house or land, it would be smarter to only liquidate enough bitcoin for a sizable down payment, and then get a really good low fixed rate 30yr loan for the rest. Bitcoin's yearly returns would handily beat, actually crush any 3-4% yearly interest on the loan. Plus both the house/land AND your left over bitcoin would both be increasing in value relative to fiat while you were still making loan payments.

I've done that for 35 acres of paradise this year.

[JimboToronto]

@Jimbo
Can you please explain why are you keeping on giving updates on Altcash prices?
Are you still invested in that? 

Yep. I'm waiting until I can sell them without risking the anonymity of my bitcoins. The price has been fairly steady after bouncing up and down. I think the market may have discovered the value of this altcoin. I'm willing now to play wait and see.
____

I post the prices daily because lots of others are also still holding what they got gifted in August.

[gentlemand]

Let's say you buy the house right now, using 20% down payment in liquidated bitcoin, and financing the other 80% for 30 yrs. The rest you kept in bitcoin. Even if bitcoin ONLY did a 10X from here over the next 30 years(!), your average yearly bitcoin gains would still crush the interest payments on the loan. And you can pay off your loan early at any time, you don't have to wait 30 years.

But if you don't believe Bitcoin will still be around and be a "thing" in 30 years, well then you must not believe that it will disrupt and revolutionize finance at all.

I do not believe anything is certain enough to make that type of bet. If someone told me they'd done the same with the blue chippiest of stocks I'd still think they were a twat.

If I had to buy a property I'd buy it outright and forever put that obligation to bed there and then.

I've said it before but I'll say it again, people are getting far, far, far too comfortable with the idea of BTC being a stone cold, cast iron, gold plated one way trip to glory. It's that type of thinking that gets people in serious trouble when that's tested.

[Ibian]

Let's say you buy the house right now, using 20% down payment in liquidated bitcoin, and financing the other 80% for 30 yrs. The rest you kept in bitcoin. Even if bitcoin ONLY did a 10X from here over the next 30 years(!), your average yearly bitcoin gains would still crush the interest payments on the loan. And you can pay off your loan early at any time, you don't have to wait 30 years.

But if you don't believe Bitcoin will still be around and be a "thing" in 30 years, well then you must not believe that it will disrupt and revolutionize finance at all.

I do not believe anything is certain enough to make that type of bet. If someone told me they'd done the same with the blue chippiest of stocks I'd still think they were a twat.

If I had to buy a property I'd buy it outright and forever put that obligation to bed there and then.

I've said it before but I'll say it again, people are getting far too comfortable with the idea of BTC being a stone cold, cast iron, gold plated one way trip to glory. It's that type of thinking that gets people in serious trouble when that's tested.

There is something to be said for getting it over and done with. Whatever happens to the value of fiat and bitcoin and bricks, you have your house and no debt in it.

[jbreher]

How can you be competitive at mining today?

Frankly, I don't know. I do not have available time to perform the calculus. Perhaps someone who mines can chime in here. Searing?

However, near-leading efficiency miners are available to anyone willing to spend on them. (though you'll need BCH to buy them XD ) Being in business is _hard_. It is not for everyone. To that end...

*Unless a change in POW helps to equalize mining power by making costs harder to scale.

...Your apparent belief that a change in PoW will make any difference in centralization is unpersuasive. No matter the technology, mining power will coalesce to those that possess the financial resources, the BizOps acumen, and most importantly the persistence and pain tolerance needed for entrepreneurship on a grand scale.

As I have been saying for literally years, the stupid centrally-planned production quota that limits capacity is stifling adoption. I expect S2X (in comparison to S1X) to allow double the number of transactions per second, per hour, per day. Therefore reenabling use cases that have been obsoleted by Cores insane Raspberry Pi fetish. More use cases = more usability. Pretty simple calculus really. Oh - and lower fees besides.

What you call the "insane Raspberry Pi fetish" is the David-against-Goliath guarantee that verifying ...

Yes, you can verify all blocks with a non-mining, fully validating* 'node'. What does this verification buy you that carefully watching your SPV chain provider does not? Nothing.

* Do you maintain a fully-validated copy of the blockchain? I posit that most operators of 'non-mining, fully-validating 'nodes' ' do not. Are you aware that starting up a Core node does not validate historical transactions before a given checkpoint?

... and keeping the big guys in check ...

Your non-mining, fully-validating 'node' does absolutely nothing to 'keep the big guys in check'. The only thing 'keeping the big guys in check' is the potential threat of economic power abandoning a given chain. And node count has an uncorrelated, Sybil-able relationship to economic power.

...has a cost small enough for anyone to be able to afford it!

Perhaps most important, the notion that the world's uber-money be beholden to the absolute lowest-denominator in computing power is -- I reiterate -- insane. Buck up, buttercup. If you want to be a cog in the most important financial machine humanity knows, spend a quarter-Bitcoin on a real tool.

No mining rig required. That's exactly the point of decentralization.

Nothing that I say is incompatible with decentralization.

You want greater adoption? You're not alone, jbreher. We all do, of course! But if adoption comes at the price of pushing Joe "David" Average out of the loop, it's just Visa-like adoption, not financial freedom-adoption. Can't you see that?

What I see is that there is a balance to be had. Indeed, the soul of engineering is the same as the soul of economics -- balancing multiple competing offsetting considerations to arrive at some sort of operating maxima. With Bitcoin's loss of market share from 85% to below 60% (indeed below 50% for a time) coincident with persistently full blocks, Core's direction is not seeking a maxima I can live with.

It ain't Bitcoin Cash, but it's double the goodness of S1X.

If big blocks are what you really think you need, you've got BCH already. What's the point of S2X then?

A hedge. Against a continuation of the insanity.

Bigger blocks are indeed a problem if usage ramps up. Latency, bandwidth and mass memory requirement would skyrocket for simple Joe "David" Average verification, not only for mining.

Joe "David" Average's verification is of no value except to that individual Joe "David" Average.

Censorship resistance would be seriously impacted.

Absolutely not. Censorship resistance is a lack of institutional barriers to being a first-class participant in the system. It has nothing to due with free as in beer.

I refuse to believe you don't see that - you're too smart not to. That's why I was asking for your true motives.

I guess you just don't want to tell us.

I have told you. Repeatedly. I really don't know how I can be any more clear. Sorry.

[Dotto]