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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25459532 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
zazzbg
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February 05, 2018, 10:07:03 AM

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.
Please show me the 87% crash of December 2013?
I can't see it.
https://imgur.com/a/O4Fmk
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El duderino_
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February 05, 2018, 10:07:20 AM

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

Lets settle around 3 k - that was the support level from where we started to 20 k  Grin

Or just settle around here @ This price level make new support @ +- 2.5X time herefore and move to the assumed 40–100k range
conspirosphere.tk
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February 05, 2018, 10:07:43 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

A couple of things to placate the doom and gloom:

"buy bitcoin" is pointing up on google trends:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&q=buy%20bitcoin


Longs/Shorts ratio is rising fast, so it will be either an epic squeeze or they know what they are doing:


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDLONGS/6zXwoCCj-How-to-find-market-bottoms/
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February 05, 2018, 10:09:49 AM

My god this dump is boring.
Heater
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February 05, 2018, 10:11:16 AM

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.
Please show me the 87% crash of December 2013?
I can't see it.
https://imgur.com/a/O4Fmk

Here you go: BITSTAMP weekly:

https://i.imgur.com/knA0Dtq.jpg
600watt
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February 05, 2018, 10:13:38 AM

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

in 2013 it took one month to climb to ATH at $1200 and 13 or 14 months to reach bottom. this time around it climbed two years and it seems to be bottoming either now (6 weeks) or soon (2-3 months). i expected it to sink much slower, like it did last time. waiting now for temporary bottom to buy back in and for THE bounce. most critical point will be peak of bounce.
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February 05, 2018, 10:26:04 AM

Is it time to sell today's bottom to make room in the display for tomorrow's bottom?



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February 05, 2018, 10:26:43 AM

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.
Please show me the 87% crash of December 2013?
I can't see it.
https://imgur.com/a/O4Fmk

He's referring to the extreme ends of the price corrections from $1,163 in December 2013 down to $152 in January 2015 or whenever was the deepest down spike.
Last of the V8s
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February 05, 2018, 10:29:35 AM


no both

no all three https://www.banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2018/2/virtual-currencies-the-oversight-role-of-the-u-s-securities-and-exchange-commission-and-the-u-s-commodity-futures-trading-commission


Is it time to sell today's bottom to make room in the display for tomorrow's bottom?
snip
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February 05, 2018, 10:35:37 AM

I think it is a nice touch that the CEO of Bitfinex and Chairman of the CFTC are both called Giancarlo.
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February 05, 2018, 10:40:47 AM

This time bitcoin is dead Grin

After a recovery were off to go down again
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February 05, 2018, 10:42:31 AM
Merited by RoomBot (2)

Opened this thread first this morning and thought BTC has fallen to triple digits judging by the comments here  Grin Then went to bitcoinwisdom just to realize we're still at 7800. What a bunch of panicking crybabies and beartrolls! I still haven't sold a single satoshi since the beginning of this dump. HODL!
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February 05, 2018, 10:44:34 AM

Well if capitulation is what you want  Grin
Karartma1
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February 05, 2018, 10:50:16 AM

I have no time to go over 45 old thread pages!  Shocked Don't you have anything to do on weekends? Don't you go out and forget about bitcoin every now and then? You crazy bitcoiners.
Ok, seriously, what did I miss?
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February 05, 2018, 10:53:33 AM

That's it .... I'm out. This thing is going down in flames.

Selling all my bitcoins to buy bcash, gonna spend the rest of my days playing chums with roger jihan rizun and jbreher while spamming bitcoin transactions like a maniac. Huffing the ether smart contract gaseous Davos lies is much more fun too.

Bitcoin is so much last years shitshow. Central power and control is the future.
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February 05, 2018, 10:53:53 AM

Dakustaking76
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February 05, 2018, 10:53:57 AM

I have no time to go over 45 old thread pages!  Shocked Don't you have anything to do on weekends? Don't you go out and forget about bitcoin every now and then? You crazy bitcoiners.
Ok, seriously, what did I miss?


You missed a bloody days Yes  Grin Damn bitcoin is rude for us
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February 05, 2018, 10:56:21 AM

Ok, seriously, what did I miss?

permabulls sinking with the shop as always after a bubble

LN will be a non event, will take years to be battle tested, probably will be a hackfest

next pump will be next bitcoin halving or an alt

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February 05, 2018, 11:00:40 AM

Ok, seriously, what did I miss?

permabulls sinking with the shop as always after a bubble

LN will be a non event, will take years to be battle tested, probably will be a hackfest

next pump will be next bitcoin halving or an alt




Haha. As if LN ever mattered to price.

How can you be a "legendary" poster and talk about a flippening? Seriously dude. If you've been around for more than 3 years, you shouldn't be a little less snarky to bulls. We are, after all up more than 1000000% in last 8 years.
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February 05, 2018, 11:02:50 AM

Back where we were in the black bitcoin friday, but this time I believe there will be no quick recovery
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