Guys
Have a plan for both $100k and $100. Both are possible.
That is all.
o.k... even though I agree, now you are going overboard, Hairy... ..
What are the odds of $1k or below in the next 5 years? 5%? less?
Now what are the odds of $100 in the next 5 years? .5% less?
What are the odds of $100k in the next 5 years? 5% more? 10%, perhaps?
We need to stop thinking of Bitcoin price in terms of $ and think of it in terms of time. Can the Bitcoin price go backwards 8 weeks to $19k? Yes it can, easily. Can the Bitcoin price go back 5 months to September 2017 when it was $3k? Yes, it can, September was not long ago. Can it go back 12 months to February 2017 when it was $800? Much much harder but still definitely possible. Can it go back 2.5 years to August 2015 when it was $198? Ok this is impossible.
So you are right, I agree no chance of $100.
Hey Hairy, I did not disagree with what you said that first time around about $100 being possible, I just put $100 at such a low level of possibility, such as less than .5% that I thought that it was a bit too much to be referring to such a scenario in any kind of civilized attempt at a meaningful discussion.
We should know that going to zero is possible too, but such number becomes really on the extreme end of minusculeness, so talking about zero is not really a realistic discussion point, either.
But there is a risk of 3 digit Bitcoin that I think would cause everyone in this thread to pee blood. I think this is a low chance but higher than 5%.
We can differ about our assessment of 3 digits, and the more that I think about the three digits matter, the more I think that lower than 5% was even too charitable of a number. Just getting to 3 digits is at a 95% correction.. and the more I think about it, the more preposterous such a correction sounds.. absent some really fucked up news.. so perhaps lower than 1% would be a more fair reflection of my assessment.. especially given our current status and our current bull market.. that we have not left, so far... too fucking early to say that we are "out of the bull market".. so we differ about how much percentage to give to 3 digits and even if it is a meaningful talking point.. sure I am prepared for it, but it just seems like pie in the sky to be talking about it as if it were a reasonable possibility in our current context....
February 2017 was not so long ago.
I see what you are doing with the time thing, and yeah, I appreciate it, but you are not going to get me to go with that time framework... even though you personally consider the time framework to be helpful to put these BTC price possibility matters into perspective... I actually think that it causes you to give too much weight to the downward possibility.. but do what you like and bet (and prepare) accordingly.
So we must plan and be prepared for all eventualities.
I agree that we prepare for all, but we prepare less for something that we consider to be less than 1%.... but if it gets closer the odds go up and we prepare more... . hey maybe we even prepare less for the less than 5% scenarios, too.
I don't really mind mentally preparing for an eventuality that I consider to be less than .5%, but I am not going to spend much energy on it, and really the last mile might NOT be a total preparation because it is considered to be so unlikely.
Furthermore, as we prepare for UPs and DOWNs, recently we have personally experienced considerable (and perhaps) excessive needs to retweak our parameters of what we have come to consider to be possible and likely, especially towards the upside direction (but the tweaking has to affect both directions).
The fact that some scenarios, such as $100k is being thrown around a lot more regularly as a possible scenario is because a large number of folks have recognized that $100k number to have become much more possible in a shorter period of time, merely based on the fact that we actually experienced $20k in December... fuck.... it is amazing... so yeah, I do agree that retracing is easier than plowing new all time highs, but at the same time, only so much retracing is reasonable and probable.. especialy when we start to talk about 95% or greater retracing..... get real.... even the seemingly low possible of $100k has become more possible, which has also caused some of the numbers to the downside to become less and less possible.... including reasonable discussions of 3 digits..
3 digits has become a really BIG fucking outlier.. ... greater than 95% retracement... now?
hello?... so as I type I am becoming more and more adamant and maybe even excited that I don't even feel like it is a worthy of reasonable conversation to be talking about below $1k because it has become such a low probability type price arena in our current context. sure I am still prepared for it, but I can almost say it is NOT going to happen.. even though I am still willing to admit to its less than 1% probability.. but let's not be wasting our meaningful time with that downside outlier bullshit.
Oh gosh.. i am getting myself worked up.. about the lower and lower likelihood of three digits.. in other words.. good fucking bye three digits.. let's stop thinking about you.
. So yeah, 3 digits gotta get below $7k, then gotta get below $5k then $3k then $2k.. and fuck.. three digits are history... .. we not gonna see you no more.. good bye. adieu
As I post this, we are under $8k in price and have weak volume. I am not happy about this I can only read what the chart says. In time terms, we are currently at November 23 2017 and walking backwards.
Yes, we can concede that we have access to the same charts, and we have been glued to them for six months if not longer... Consession on that point that you are not telling me anything that I don't know when I see the price bouncing in the below $8k arena, as I type my response.
September 2017 ($3k) is only 2.5 more months of backwards walking.
Yep.. .getting fucking tough to get to $3k..even from here and even though I concede that $3k is a higher likelihood today than it was a week ago... eating away at support and eating away, but $3k is still a long fucking way away... maybe $3k is less than 15%, even from here. .. and sure I have my buy orders already set down to $3k.. that is a 85% retracement from $19,666. I personally do think that we are going to get an 85% retracement this time around, but I do that we will perhaps will get a 85% retracement or greater after we continue our upwards bull run past $20k and perhaps past $50k, then a greater than 85% retracement from there... sure.. sure.. but not now..
On the other hand, if we have meaningful time below $5k, then $3k becomes more likely at that point... but we are not even close to $5k yet. Sorry, I am becoming more and more difficult in my acceptance the more I type... it is not that I am not prepared with my orders, I just don't see $3k in the current cards... talk to me if we break $7k, I might become more willing to consider... hahahahahhahaha
not that I have any say over this, but I do have say over my thoughts of what I believe to be plausible and reasonable when we are in a bull market and continue in such.. and the FUD ain't even that bad yet... Yeah in mid February another bcash pump and spam attack, perhaps, and maybe some more ethereum pumping, but can they do it.. and then maybe a collapse of all alts.. but still difficult to see $3k... still.
I have made my peace and will ride my current stack into the ground if necessary. To do otherwise would expose me to an unacceptable risk of being left behind when the market snaps back. I will also buy but not until the market has bled much much more or we have truly broken the downward trend.
hahahahaha..
O.k... you see you have more confidence in down than me, and in that regard, you are going on a buying hiatus, whereby I continue to buy every $1k all the way down to $3k.. then my buy orders that are not yet set for below $3k, would likely become closer, but I am not going to set them until we get below $5k, if we get there.. it is too fucking speculative to even be thinking about under $3k... so I am o.k buying at $7k, $6k, $5k, $4k, and $3k.. .. and then I will get nervous because we are in a scenario that is way the fuck beyond my expectations.. and we are already in a much greater retracement (bouncing in the 60% retracement arena) than my expectations....
Maybe you are correct with your buy hiatus Hairy approach.. but I have never been a hiatus kind of a guy (whether it has been buying or selling).. I have learned my lesson from attempting that on a few short run occasions in the past.. and it just had caused me way too much stress... so, I am good, I am good. buy every $1k down to $3k, if it happens, and regroup from there (actually start regrouping below $5k that I don't even expect to happen... you fucking bearwhales... [not referring to you hairy)).
Poll
