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February 08, 2023, 08:32:07 PM *
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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 39 (25.5%)
2024 - 60 (39.2%)
2025 - 40 (26.1%)
2026 - 4 (2.6%)
2027 - 2 (1.3%)
After 2027 - 3 (2%)
Never - 5 (3.3%)
Total Voters: 153

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26006686 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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February 05, 2018, 10:26:43 AM

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.
Please show me the 87% crash of December 2013?
I can't see it.
https://imgur.com/a/O4Fmk

He's referring to the extreme ends of the price corrections from $1,163 in December 2013 down to $152 in January 2015 or whenever was the deepest down spike.
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Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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February 05, 2018, 10:29:35 AM


no both

no all three https://www.banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2018/2/virtual-currencies-the-oversight-role-of-the-u-s-securities-and-exchange-commission-and-the-u-s-commodity-futures-trading-commission


Is it time to sell today's bottom to make room in the display for tomorrow's bottom?
snip
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February 05, 2018, 10:35:37 AM

I think it is a nice touch that the CEO of Bitfinex and Chairman of the CFTC are both called Giancarlo.
Dakustaking76
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February 05, 2018, 10:40:47 AM

This time bitcoin is dead Grin

After a recovery were off to go down again
serveria.com
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Balls of steel. This time is different.


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February 05, 2018, 10:42:31 AM
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Opened this thread first this morning and thought BTC has fallen to triple digits judging by the comments here  Grin Then went to bitcoinwisdom just to realize we're still at 7800. What a bunch of panicking crybabies and beartrolls! I still haven't sold a single satoshi since the beginning of this dump. HODL!
HairyMaclairy
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February 05, 2018, 10:44:34 AM

Well if capitulation is what you want  Grin
Karartma1
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February 05, 2018, 10:50:16 AM

I have no time to go over 45 old thread pages!  Shocked Don't you have anything to do on weekends? Don't you go out and forget about bitcoin every now and then? You crazy bitcoiners.
Ok, seriously, what did I miss?
marcus_of_augustus
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Eadem mutata resurgo


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February 05, 2018, 10:53:33 AM

That's it .... I'm out. This thing is going down in flames.

Selling all my bitcoins to buy bcash, gonna spend the rest of my days playing chums with roger jihan rizun and jbreher while spamming bitcoin transactions like a maniac. Huffing the ether smart contract gaseous Davos lies is much more fun too.

Bitcoin is so much last years shitshow. Central power and control is the future.
bitcoinPsycho
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$120000 by end of 2023 confirmed . Slava Ukraini


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February 05, 2018, 10:53:53 AM

Dakustaking76
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February 05, 2018, 10:53:57 AM

I have no time to go over 45 old thread pages!  Shocked Don't you have anything to do on weekends? Don't you go out and forget about bitcoin every now and then? You crazy bitcoiners.
Ok, seriously, what did I miss?


You missed a bloody days Yes  Grin Damn bitcoin is rude for us
luckygenough56
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February 05, 2018, 10:56:21 AM

Ok, seriously, what did I miss?

permabulls sinking with the shop as always after a bubble

LN will be a non event, will take years to be battle tested, probably will be a hackfest

next pump will be next bitcoin halving or an alt

windjc
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February 05, 2018, 11:00:40 AM

Ok, seriously, what did I miss?

permabulls sinking with the shop as always after a bubble

LN will be a non event, will take years to be battle tested, probably will be a hackfest

next pump will be next bitcoin halving or an alt




Haha. As if LN ever mattered to price.

How can you be a "legendary" poster and talk about a flippening? Seriously dude. If you've been around for more than 3 years, you shouldn't be a little less snarky to bulls. We are, after all up more than 1000000% in last 8 years.
White sugar
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February 05, 2018, 11:02:50 AM

Back where we were in the black bitcoin friday, but this time I believe there will be no quick recovery
Rosewater Foundation
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February 05, 2018, 11:05:09 AM

I don't have the courage to jump. I guess I'm going down with the ship. wee
mike4001
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February 05, 2018, 11:07:22 AM

Back where we were in the black bitcoin friday, but this time I believe there will be no quick recovery

No, we are slowly decending to who knows what number.

We can just hope that we can go sideways for a little bit and then can slowly move up again.

I also just checked ... a couple more days and we are even down from 3 months ago.
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February 05, 2018, 11:09:33 AM

The key question to answer is : Are we now in a BTC Bear Market ? (we will assume for now that BTC is still in an adoption uptrend, but the Bear Market is a correction)

8 weeks is by no means long enough to complete a bear move. After a bull of 2-3 years, the full correction could be expected to be at least a year...and a decline of 85% would not be unusual.

Historical charts are clear. Price moves in long waves, ending in a parabolic move. We have just had that, and a decline from the peak of  over 60%,  so the parabolic peak could be in.

If the converse is true, then a new all time high should come within the next few months. A failed rally (lower peak) or a sideways move becomes more of a negative indicator as more time passes.

I would suggest being pragmatic and watching price action rather than fixing a view.

Better to sell at a 20% lower level rather than sell now and miss new ath. A move below $6000 would be a sell.




Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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February 05, 2018, 11:09:45 AM

Nosk
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February 05, 2018, 11:11:12 AM

So... sell a bit to take profit next week ?   Huh
Rosewater Foundation
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February 05, 2018, 11:13:01 AM

So... sell a bit to take profit next week ?   Huh

Next week we could be fighting over the bones. I'd say run now.
Dakustaking76
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February 05, 2018, 11:13:22 AM

Here comes - €6000 get ready weeeeeeee
Ore we have a fucking strong support at €6000 weeeeeee
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