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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25459490 times)
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HairyMaclairy
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February 05, 2018, 07:04:21 AM
Last edit: February 05, 2018, 07:18:57 AM by HairyMaclairy
Merited by jbreher (1), El duderino_ (1), AZwarel (1)

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.

o.k... even though I agree, now you are going overboard, Hairy... ..     Angry Angry Angry

What are the odds of $1k or below in the next 5 years?  5%?  less?

Now what are the odds of $100 in the next 5 years?  .5%  less?

What are the odds of $100k in the next 5 years?  5%  more?  10%, perhaps?

We need to stop thinking of Bitcoin price in terms of $ and think of it in terms of time.   Can the Bitcoin price go backwards 8 weeks to $19k?  Yes it can, easily.  Can the Bitcoin price go back 5 months to September 2017 when it was $3k?  Yes, it can, September was not long ago.  Can it go back 12 months to February 2017 when it was $800?  Much much harder but still definitely possible.  Can it go back 2.5 years to August 2015 when it was $198?  Ok this is impossible.

So you are right, I agree no chance of $100.  But there is a risk of 3 digit Bitcoin that I think would cause everyone in this thread to pee blood.  I think this is a low chance but higher than 5%.  February 2017 was not so long ago.  So we must plan and be prepared for all eventualities.  

As I post this, we are under $8k in price and have weak volume.  I am not happy about this I can only read what the chart says.  In time terms, we are currently at November 23 2017 and walking backwards.  September 2017 ($3k) is only 2.5 more months of backwards walking.

I have made my peace and will ride my current stack into the ground if necessary.  To do otherwise would expose me to an unacceptable risk of being left behind when the market snaps back.   I will also buy but not until the market has bled much much more or we have truly broken the downward trend.
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El duderino_
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February 05, 2018, 07:11:53 AM

Everything is possible but for me it can be that time When it go’s UP like crazy and not looking back for a good and long period
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February 05, 2018, 07:26:02 AM

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.

o.k... even though I agree, now you are going overboard, Hairy... ..     Angry Angry Angry

What are the odds of $1k or below in the next 5 years?  5%?  less?

Now what are the odds of $100 in the next 5 years?  .5%  less?

What are the odds of $100k in the next 5 years?  5%  more?  10%, perhaps?

We need to stop thinking of Bitcoin price in terms of $ and think of it in terms of time.   Can the Bitcoin price go backwards 8 weeks to $19k?  Yes it can, easily.  Can the Bitcoin price go back 5 months to September 2017 when it was $3k?  Yes, it can, September was not long ago.  Can it go back 12 months to February 2017 when it was $800?  Much much harder but still definitely possible.  Can it go back 2.5 years to August 2015 when it was $198?  Ok this is impossible.

So you are right, I agree no chance of $100.  But there is a risk of 3 digit Bitcoin that I think would cause everyone in this thread to pee blood.  I think this is a low chance but higher than 5%.  February 2017 was not so long ago.  So we must plan and be prepared for all eventualities.  

As I post this, we are under $8k in price and have weak volume.  I am not happy about this I can only read what the chart says.  In time terms, we are currently at November 23 2017 and walking backwards.  September 2017 ($3k) is only 2.5 more months of backwards walking.

I have made my peace and will ride my current stack into the ground if necessary.  To do otherwise would expose me to an unacceptable risk of being left behind when the market snaps back.   I will also buy but not until the market has bled much much more or we have truly broken the downward trend.

Total true i do never sell but for them believing in the long term i do think selling NOW is with very high risk of Going into the future with less BTC than they have right NOW same if iT would go deeper like 5-4-3 k Deep i Will be buying more as wel , I do hope we reached bottoms for This time and would never go This low again , Just to go back over 5-digits and stay over there
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February 05, 2018, 07:29:05 AM

Looks like the whole tx spam job by ... jbreher, ... is officially a failed exercise in self-falattio

If you have any evidence whatsoever that I have been in any way associated with a 'tx spam job', then cough it up.

Fucking lying asshole.
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February 05, 2018, 07:30:21 AM

Really tempted to buy now. Trying not to... Undecided already invested more than intended. Saving for a miner...
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February 05, 2018, 07:33:47 AM


It would be fascinating if in the future ...


... and all impossible futures generally are fascinating.

Looks like the whole tx spam job by Ver's minions, Wu, Armstrong, Rizun, jbreher, cyberdoc and co. is officially a failed exercise in self-falattio

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#6m

time to find a new FUD spam song for bitcoin's official losers brigade.

Going down -> blame wall street. Roll Eyes
I'm just trading this for moar coinz.
somac.
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February 05, 2018, 07:39:11 AM

Looks like the whole tx spam job by ... jbreher, ... is officially a failed exercise in self-falattio

If you have any evidence whatsoever that I have been in any way associated with a 'tx spam job', then cough it up.

Fucking lying asshole.

About a 9 on the tension scale there, Rube.
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February 05, 2018, 07:52:00 AM

I think anyone holding Bcash probably feels a little tense.  And given that it is just another shitfork, there is little to stop it from going to zero.  Just like Bitcoin Diamond and United Bitcoin and Bitcoin Pizza.
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February 05, 2018, 08:00:05 AM
Last edit: February 05, 2018, 08:11:54 AM by wayna

Still dropping...

If I saw another dump behind the corner, IMHO bigs are just liquidating what they have accumulated in the last three months which probably was a huge amount of coins.

I would expect a bullish attitude towards BTC and then altcoins in the next periods, probably in that sequence.

The end of 2017 signed a lot of new projects around cryptos, they want both to pump BTC and some alts at this point, making 2018 even more profitable than 2017. Look at Stellar and Cardano... even a homeless could bet something at this point, and at these prices.

So... prices will surely skyrocket again (at least I hope so Grin).
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February 05, 2018, 08:17:52 AM

$7800 2000btc wall at bitfinex still there, not pulled yet.
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February 05, 2018, 08:18:23 AM

really bitcoin?  you want this on your conscience?


you're threatening to give the Australorp a Brazilian?
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February 05, 2018, 08:21:26 AM

careful here!

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February 05, 2018, 08:32:41 AM

Did everyone sell yet? Theyre waiting on you. They wont buy until you sell. At least sell a coin or two and take one for the team.
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February 05, 2018, 08:36:24 AM

Nothtig sold. Will not sell at all. Cheesy

But i think we're going for a post-mt.gox correction.
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February 05, 2018, 08:37:01 AM

$7800 2000btc wall at bitfinex still there, not pulled yet.
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February 05, 2018, 08:39:06 AM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST        

27/12/2017 bikerleszno Sad
29/12/2018 cAPSLOCK  Sad
30/12/2017 digithusiast Sad
31/12/2017 Raja_MBZ Sad
01/01/2018 elg Sad
02/01/2018 wachtwoord Sad
03/01/2018 JimboToronto Sad
04/01/2018 d_eddie  Sad
05/01/2018 BTCMILLIONAIRE Sad
06/01/2018 HanvanBitcoin Sad
07/01/2018 ghandi Sad
08/01/2018 savetherainforrest Sad
09/01/2018 explorer Sad
10/01/2018 bicoinpsycho Sad
11/01/2018 Bitcoinaire Sad
12/01/2018 speedwheel Sad
13/01/2018 undeadbitcoiner Sad
14/01/2018 northypole Sad
15/01/2018 ivomm Sad
16/01/2018 maca068 Sad
17/01/2018 bitcoinvest Sad
18/01/2018 last of the v8s Sad
19/01/2018 mfort312 Sad
20/01/2018 1982dre Sad
21/01/2018 flamast2 Sad
22/01/2018 RealMachasm Sad
23/01/2018 willope Sad
24/01/2018 kartala Sad
25/01/2018 orpington Sad
26/01/2018 rolling Sad
27/01/2018 LFC_bitcoin Sad
28/01/2018 jojo69 Sad
29/01/2018 CristiTCM Sad
30/01/2018 rayX12 Sad
31/01/2018 realsteelboy Sad
01/02/2018 twocorn Sad
02/02/2018 mancroofer Sad
03/02/2018 True Myth Sad
04/02/2018 poolminor Sad
05/02/2018 itod Sad
06/02/2018 scheptan
07/02/2018 vapourminer
08/02/2018 alexeft
09/02/2018 siera
10/02/2018 AlcoHoDL
11/02/2018 Dunkelheit667
12/02/2018 yonton
13/02/2018 Wekkel
14/02/2018 Thekool1s
15/02/2018 starmman
16/02/2018 Globb0
17/02/2018 leveldkrypto
18/02/2018 olesh
19/02/2018 BitCoinBurger
20/02/2018 Paashaas
21/02/2018 flynn
22/02/2018 icygreen
23/02/2018 erisdiscordia
24/02/2018 phil_s
25/02/2018 sirazimuth
26/02/2018 Arriemoller
27/02/2018 yonton
28/02/2018 Muttley
01/03/2018 bones261
02/03/2018 heater
03/03/2018 soullyG
04/03/2018 InvoKing
05/03/2018 Notme
06/03/2018 sa_94
07/03/2018 NUFCrichard
08/03/2018 Imbatman
09/03/2018 Roombot
10/03/2018 STT
11/03/2018 badream
13/03/2018 erre
14/03/2018 julian071
15/03/2018 podyx
17/03/2018 fragout
18/03/2018 fabiorem
21/03/2018 dakustaking76
23/03/2018 nikauforest
31/03/2018 vroom
01/04/2018 somac.
02/04/2018 kurious
04/04/2018 fluidjax
05/04/2018 bitcoinbunny
08/04/2018 tyler1890
10/04/2018 ludwigvon
11/04/2018 hairymaclairy
16/04/2018 practicaldreamer
18/04/2018 free-bit.co.in
27/04/2018 drbrockoin
01/05/2018 sprinkles
02/06/2018 oblox
07/07/2018 IntroVert
03/08/2018 toxic2040
28/08/2018 bitserve
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK. ( but please When to finally pay Smiley  )

As iT is a very sunny day and as wel a quiet moment on the threat ..... seems a good moment to allready post the list cause seems very unlickly we Will break hights for This day Smiley  Wink
Maybe tomorrow Hahaha pffff So bad @waiting i am - the patience must be with me- and the force shall let me see new hights , sooner or later offcourse prefer the sooner than the later

Have one strange friend allways telling me btc must go down one more time and then he would buy something .... now its lower than he asks for but still didn’t buy ......? Some people Will never learn??
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February 05, 2018, 08:45:33 AM

Did everyone sell yet? Theyre waiting on you. They wont buy until you sell. At least sell a coin or two and take one for the team.

Also didn’t sell any ,buy something but maybe to little cause just@ This time on holiday  Undecided only bought a small dip cause had Some fiat standing on my Bitpay and they have to refunded iT..... but Yeah have a few coins more maybe not to bad @ all
If the price would be lower next week When arriving back @ belgium i maybe must/need to buy Some more

Only i prefer the price would go up like skyrocket up hard than go down .....  only time Will tell what i wil be doing next few weeks please do not let me buy dips and Just let me relax the fuck out of my coins  Grin
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February 05, 2018, 08:47:36 AM

wall being eaten, still plenty to go though
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February 05, 2018, 08:51:04 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

Guys

Have a plan for both $100k and $100.   Both are possible.  

That is all.

o.k... even though I agree, now you are going overboard, Hairy... ..     Angry Angry Angry

What are the odds of $1k or below in the next 5 years?  5%?  less?

Now what are the odds of $100 in the next 5 years?  .5%  less?

What are the odds of $100k in the next 5 years?  5%  more?  10%, perhaps?

We need to stop thinking of Bitcoin price in terms of $ and think of it in terms of time.   Can the Bitcoin price go backwards 8 weeks to $19k?  Yes it can, easily.  Can the Bitcoin price go back 5 months to September 2017 when it was $3k?  Yes, it can, September was not long ago.  Can it go back 12 months to February 2017 when it was $800?  Much much harder but still definitely possible.  Can it go back 2.5 years to August 2015 when it was $198?  Ok this is impossible.

So you are right, I agree no chance of $100.  

Hey Hairy, I did not disagree with what you said that first time around about $100 being possible, I just put $100 at such a low level of possibility, such as less than .5% that I thought that it was a bit too much to be referring to such a scenario in any kind of civilized attempt at a meaningful discussion.

We should know that going to zero is possible too, but such number becomes really on the extreme end of minusculeness, so talking about zero is not really a realistic discussion point, either.




But there is a risk of 3 digit Bitcoin that I think would cause everyone in this thread to pee blood.  I think this is a low chance but higher than 5%.  

We can differ about our assessment of 3 digits, and the more that I think about the three digits matter, the more I think that lower than 5% was even too charitable of a number.  Just getting to 3 digits is at a 95% correction.. and the more I think about it, the more preposterous such a correction sounds.. absent some really fucked up news.. so perhaps lower than 1% would be a more fair reflection of my assessment.. especially given our current status and our current bull market.. that we have not left, so far... too fucking early to say that we are "out of the bull market".. so we differ about how much percentage to give to 3 digits and even if it is a meaningful talking point.. sure I am prepared for it, but it just seems like pie in the sky to be talking about it as if it were a reasonable possibility in our current context....  


February 2017 was not so long ago.  

I see what you are doing with the time thing, and yeah, I appreciate it, but you are not going to get me to go with that time framework... even  though you personally consider the time framework to be helpful to put these BTC price possibility matters into perspective... I actually think that it causes you to give too much weight to the downward possibility.. but do what you like and bet (and prepare) accordingly.


So we must plan and be prepared for all eventualities.


I agree that we prepare for all, but we prepare less for something that we consider to be less than 1%....  but if it gets closer the odds go up and we prepare more... . hey maybe we even prepare less for the less than 5% scenarios, too.

I don't really mind mentally preparing for an eventuality that I consider to be less than .5%, but I am not going to spend much energy on it, and really the last mile might NOT be a total preparation because it is considered to be so unlikely.  

Furthermore, as we prepare for UPs and DOWNs, recently we have personally experienced considerable (and perhaps) excessive needs to retweak our parameters of what we have come to consider to be possible and likely, especially towards the upside direction (but the tweaking has to affect both directions).  

The fact that some scenarios, such as $100k is being thrown around a lot more regularly as a possible scenario is because a large number of folks have recognized that $100k number to have become much more possible in a shorter period of time, merely based on the fact that we actually experienced $20k in December... fuck.... it is amazing... so yeah, I do agree that retracing is easier than plowing new all time highs, but at the same time, only so much retracing is reasonable and probable.. especialy when we start to talk about 95% or greater retracing..... get real.... even the seemingly low possible of $100k has become more possible, which has also caused some of the numbers to the downside to become less and less possible.... including reasonable discussions of 3 digits..

3 digits has become a really BIG fucking outlier.. ... greater than 95% retracement... now?Huh hello?... so as I type I am becoming more and more adamant and maybe even excited that I don't even feel like it is a worthy of reasonable conversation to be talking about below $1k  because it has become such a low probability type price arena in our current context. sure I am still prepared for it, but  I can almost say it is NOT going to happen.. even though I am still willing to admit to its less than 1% probability.. but let's not be wasting our meaningful time with that downside outlier bullshit.    Wink Wink    Cheesy Cheesy  Oh gosh.. i am getting myself worked up.. about the lower and lower likelihood of three digits.. in other words.. good fucking bye three digits.. let's stop thinking about you.    Tongue.  So yeah, 3 digits gotta get below $7k, then gotta get below $5k then $3k then $2k.. and fuck.. three digits are history... .. we not gonna see you no more.. good bye.  adieu  Cry


 

As I post this, we are under $8k in price and have weak volume.  I am not happy about this I can only read what the chart says.  In time terms, we are currently at November 23 2017 and walking backwards.  

Yes, we can concede that we have access to the same charts, and we have been glued to them for six months if not longer... Consession on that point that you are not telling me anything that I don't know when I see the price bouncing in the below $8k arena, as I type my response.


September 2017 ($3k) is only 2.5 more months of backwards walking.

Yep.. .getting fucking tough to get to $3k..even from here and even though I concede that $3k is a higher likelihood today than it was a week ago... eating away at support and eating away, but $3k is still a long fucking way away...  maybe $3k is less than 15%, even from here. .. and sure I have my buy orders already set down to $3k.. that is a 85% retracement from $19,666.  I personally do think that we are going to get an 85% retracement this time around, but I do that we will perhaps will get a 85% retracement or greater after we continue our upwards bull run past $20k and perhaps past $50k, then a greater than 85% retracement from there... sure.. sure.. but not now..

On the other hand, if we have meaningful time below $5k, then $3k becomes more likely at that point... but we are not even close to $5k yet.  Sorry, I am becoming more and more difficult in my acceptance the more I type... it is not that I am not prepared with my orders, I just don't see $3k in the current cards... talk to me if we break $7k, I might become more willing to consider... hahahahahhahaha   Tongue  not that I have any say over this, but I do have say over my thoughts of what I believe to be plausible and reasonable when we are in a bull market and continue in such.. and the FUD ain't even that bad yet...   Yeah in mid February another bcash pump and spam attack, perhaps, and maybe some more ethereum pumping, but can they do it.. and then maybe a collapse of all alts.. but still difficult to see $3k... still.

I have made my peace and will ride my current stack into the ground if necessary.  To do otherwise would expose me to an unacceptable risk of being left behind when the market snaps back.   I will also buy but not until the market has bled much much more or we have truly broken the downward trend.

hahahahaha..

O.k... you see you have more confidence in down than me, and in that regard, you are going on a buying hiatus, whereby I continue to buy every $1k all the way down to $3k.. then my buy orders that are not yet set for below $3k, would likely become closer, but I am not going to set them until we get below $5k, if we get there.. it is too fucking speculative to even be thinking about under $3k... so I am o.k buying at $7k, $6k, $5k, $4k, and $3k.. .. and then I will get nervous because we are in a scenario that is way the fuck beyond my expectations.. and we are already in a much greater retracement (bouncing in the 60% retracement arena)  than my expectations....

Maybe you are correct with your buy hiatus Hairy approach.. but I have never been a hiatus kind of a guy (whether it has been buying or selling).. I have learned my lesson from attempting that on a few short run occasions in the past.. and it just had caused me way too much stress... so, I am good, I am good.  buy every $1k down to $3k, if it happens, and regroup from there (actually start regrouping below $5k that I don't even expect to happen... you fucking bearwhales... [not referring to you hairy)).
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February 05, 2018, 08:51:48 AM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST        

snip

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK. ( but please When to finally pay Smiley  )

As iT is a very sunny day and as wel a quiet moment on the threat ..... seems a good moment to allready post the list cause seems very unlickly we Will break hights for This day Smiley  Wink
Maybe tomorrow Hahaha pffff So bad @waiting i am - the patience must be with me- and the force shall let me see new hights , sooner or later offcourse prefer the sooner than the later

Have one strange friend allways telling me btc must go down one more time and then he would buy something .... now its lower than he asks for but still didn’t buy ......? Some people Will never learn??

Even tomorrow seems a little strong. Friend is greedy maybe?

Pl could you remind me of your rules in case it falls on a day no one chose eg 12/03 or 27/03
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