Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fragout]

Here we go. this is going to hurt

[1614528897]

1614528897

[MERlT]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kANR7NrPzSk

They always watch, they always, lie, they always control, and the sheeple always listen, who sold at the bottom?

[jeezy]

its touching the daily SMA200. next 24h critical

[svdleer]

Almost at the bottom of friday.

[HairyMaclairy]

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

[JayJuanGee]

Did everyone sell yet? Theyre waiting on you. They wont buy until you sell. At least sell a coin or two and take one for the team.

hahahaha


Fair enough proposal, Tera numero dos.  I just cannot get my nervous little bull hoofs to click on the sell button at these seemingly "on sale" price levels.. they just won't cooperate.   

So what is the reason for this huge huge drop. Seems a bit extreme.

Seems like a 95% or greater chance that bitcoin is really, really, really 100% dead this time.  okey dokey?

I have to talk in percentages, otherwise you won't understand me.   

[criptix]

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

Lets settle around 3 k - that was the support level from where we started to 20 k  

[JayJuanGee]

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

Fair enough... regarding your hiatus motivated buy plan.. hahahahaha.. and you better start a bit above $4900 to be safe and not get stuck suffering in fantasy land....   hehehehehehehe...  I am sticking with $1k BTC buy increments, because bitcoin be called in exponential growth phase and in an ongoing bull market.  

Do you really think that going on 8 weeks of correction  (and we are not even to 8 weeks yet) is enough to stop our lovely more than two year long bull run?  

You cannot use some model that is not even very comparable to straight jacket deee honey badger....  
 


even though perhaps early 2013 would be the closest.. in terms of total circumstances, but you cannot look at just some aspect to try to argue similar levels, because each time is going to be different.. remember how fast early 2013 went up and also how fast it went down, and then it got stuck for more than 6 months...   We are not quite there, and we are not quite there... you are attempting to constrain the honey badger and he does not like your efforts.  

Honey badger can see what you are trying to do to it:

[zazzbg]

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

Please show me the 87% crash of December 2013?
I can't see it.
https://imgur.com/a/O4Fmk

[El duderino_]

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

Lets settle around 3 k - that was the support level from where we started to 20 k  

Or just settle around here @ This price level make new support @ +- 2.5X time herefore and move to the assumed 40–100k range

[conspirosphere.tk]

A couple of things to placate the doom and gloom:

"buy bitcoin" is pointing up on google trends:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&q=buy%20bitcoin


Longs/Shorts ratio is rising fast, so it will be either an epic squeeze or they know what they are doing:


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDLONGS/6zXwoCCj-How-to-find-market-bottoms/

[Sukovsky]

My god this dump is boring.

[Heater]

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

Please show me the 87% crash of December 2013?
I can't see it.
https://imgur.com/a/O4Fmk

Here you go: BITSTAMP weekly:

https://i.imgur.com/knA0Dtq.jpg

[600watt]

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

in 2013 it took one month to climb to ATH at $1200 and 13 or 14 months to reach bottom. this time around it climbed two years and it seems to be bottoming either now (6 weeks) or soon (2-3 months). i expected it to sink much slower, like it did last time. waiting now for temporary bottom to buy back in and for THE bounce. most critical point will be peak of bounce.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Is it time to sell today's bottom to make room in the display for tomorrow's bottom?

[JayJuanGee]

Let’s see what we have in history - picking only long grinding crashes that have lasted more than 7 weeks.  We are currently on week 8.

June 2011:  94%

April 2013:  79%

December 2013:  87%

I think these are our only comparable data points but happy to be corrected. This is not a flash crash.

On this basis we should assume a final price between 79% and 94% down. Let us be conservative and say 75% to 95% price decline.  

On this rationale we should buy aggressively between $4,900 down to $980.  Perhaps we should start earlier than $4900 so as not to be greedy but not too much if we believe the model.

Please show me the 87% crash of December 2013?
I can't see it.
https://imgur.com/a/O4Fmk

He's referring to the extreme ends of the price corrections from $1,163 in December 2013 down to $152 in January 2015 or whenever was the deepest down spike.

[Last of the V8s]

no both

no all three https://www.banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2018/2/virtual-currencies-the-oversight-role-of-the-u-s-securities-and-exchange-commission-and-the-u-s-commodity-futures-trading-commission

Is it time to sell today's bottom to make room in the display for tomorrow's bottom?
snip

[HairyMaclairy]

I think it is a nice touch that the CEO of Bitfinex and Chairman of the CFTC are both called Giancarlo.

[Dakustaking76]

This time bitcoin is dead

After a recovery were off to go down again

[serveria.com]

Opened this thread first this morning and thought BTC has fallen to triple digits judging by the comments here   Then went to bitcoinwisdom just to realize we're still at 7800. What a bunch of panicking crybabies and beartrolls! I still haven't sold a single satoshi since the beginning of this dump. HODL!