Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[theymos]

A couple of months ago I heard someone on Bloomberg Markets saying that all assets were inexplicably rising at the same time -- stocks, real estate, collectibles, BTC, etc. And now it seems that all assets are falling at the same time. What is the underlying reason for this? One explanation that comes to mind is that people are selling all of their other assets in order to buy into the falling stock market. Or is it some underlying economic thing with the fiat economy?

P.S. I totally called it in this post:

I've been feeling that the price jump has been built on FOMO speculation for a while now. I think that the real, solid base is around $6k (roughly following the longer-term linear trend), but I expect speculators to stabilize it if it reaches $10k, at the very least, and then those prices might or might not stabilize.

So IMO $6k and below is "solid", $6k-$10k is semi-solid, and everything above $10k is a house of cards. No idea what'll actually happen in the next few days, though; it's pure speculative madness. In the next hour, I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop to $10k or an increase to $16k.

[Sitarow]

Good sign

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m

Note that old hardware may be  turned off to make way for new hardware going online in march.

https://i.imgur.com/v4xu4s1.png - OLD DIFFICULTY from December 6th 2017

New from January 26 2018.
https://i.imgur.com/2oBJ4ZD.png

[Torque]

A couple of months ago I heard someone on Bloomberg Markets saying that all assets were inexplicably rising at the same time -- stocks, real estate, collectibles, BTC, etc. And now it seems that all assets are falling at the same time. What is the underlying reason for this? One explanation that comes to mind is that people are selling all of their other assets in order to buy into the falling stock market. Or is it some underlying economic thing with the fiat economy?

Not sure.

But it is troubling that some "safe haven" assets (like PMs) that in the past were considered inversely correlated with equities haven't caught the bid people would normally expect. It makes me believe that these assets are also over leveraged/inflated and tightly controlled by the Fed and CBs. It's like they don't want money to be able to run anywhere but where they want it to go (or stay). No free market.

The "everything bubble"?

[kurious]

Polo doesn't trade USD /BTC, better reference an exchange that does, maybe? Polo is usually a little higher than (say) Bitstamp - which I personally prefer, and Finex arbs with Stamp, too, usually linking prices between them (roughly)

technically, yes, but if they are almost 100% correlated, no big difference.
coinbase indicates 6166 low.
tradingview shows btc below 6K for a few minutes, hardly relevant (so far)
personally, I don't like either bitstamp or bitfinex (especially), hence the difference in opinion on price.

I meant arguing whether the price went under 6K - but I can happily agree about Finex.   I only go in occasionally for something that is impossible to do elsewhere, and only for as short a time as possible. 

I am based in the EU, so Stamp - which paid back when it was hacked, and generally doesn't fall down - suits me.

[RoomBot]

Polo doesn't trade USD /BTC, better reference an exchange that does, maybe? Polo is usually a little higher than (say) Bitstamp - which I personally prefer, and Finex arbs with Stamp, too, usually linking prices between them (roughly)

technically, yes, but if they are almost 100% correlated, no big difference.
coinbase indicates 6166 low [/s] BOTTOM for 2018
tradingview shows btc below 6K for a few minutes, hardly relevant (so far)
personally, I don't like either bitstamp or bitfinex (especially), hence the difference in opinion on price.

FTFY    

[Last of the V8s]

Good sign

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m

Note that old hardware may be  turned off to make way for new hardware going online in march.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

hasn't worked in months.

like your sheet thanks. some good memories with those old bricks. jalapeno ftw. 1% diff lol

[jojo69]

Just updated my old Hardware vs Difficulty chart for BTC. It seems there is miss information going around about cost to mine and such so I wanted to get the "numbers" so to speak out there for newbies and oldschool alike.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing
https://i.imgur.com/v4xu4s1.png

In the document you will also find the estimated return for the most recent ASIC hardware available now..

those Avalon 821s ... do you need the separate controller for a single unit or no?

[Last of the V8s]

not
https://canaan.io/product/avalonminer-821/

[elg]

Jalapeno, owwww, you brought up bad memories..... Butterflylabs  

[RejectedBanana]

choo choo

[milkshock100]

We are off to the races

[Last of the V8s]

Jalapeno, owwww, you brought up bad memories..... Butterflylabs  

oh sorry. i see you are quite an old member and must have had rough times with them.
i was young then didn't even read the forum and it was a machine that printed money omg - my first baby. i did not know about the 'ndrangheta connection...
2 of my eventual 3 still work.

[HairyMaclairy]

Choo choo

[vapourminer]

Jalapeno, owwww, you brought up bad memories..... Butterflylabs 

aaaarg. i have one. but it was a very early one, ordered very early on the 1st day so mine shipped way ahead of most, so it actually made some fiat profit. lost in btc mined though. had one of their fpgas and that one actually made fiat and btc. the rare good bfl experience in an otherwise bleak landscape of scammed customers. yeah bfl was as deceitful and crooked as they came.

imagine if bfl had survived. you think bitmain is bad.. man, nightmare city.

[Toxic2040]

Markets recovering...Honey Badger on the prowl. FH launch in 30 minutes...coincidence?  I think not.

[kurious]

A couple of months ago I heard someone on Bloomberg Markets saying that all assets were inexplicably rising at the same time -- stocks, real estate, collectibles, BTC, etc. And now it seems that all assets are falling at the same time. What is the underlying reason for this? One explanation that comes to mind is that people are selling all of their other assets in order to buy into the falling stock market. Or is it some underlying economic thing with the fiat economy?

If quantitive easing (QE, or 'money printing') is over, then free money is not being flung out to all and sundry (with nowhere to invest it, since interest rates have been so low) as it has been since 2008.  Now things have been picking up, so inflation will come, and interest rates will accordingly rise.

Plus there is some doubt that Trump's tax giveaway is well-timed (at the end of a recession when things are hotting up and tax revenues should be paying back for 'the bad years').   If the tax break isn't right for now, and it means less revenue and more borrowing for the US gov't, then Gilts (government borrowing) will increase in rates because the USG needs to borrow more.

So rates go up and up, and suddenly gov't bonds are a better deal.  So more money can stay safe in bonds - PLUS companies can't borrow to invest as cheaply, so make less profits.  Perfect storm if it pans out and the US stock markets know it.

So shares are less of a good deal anymore and money doesn't need to look for new assets - if it's just easier to get higher returns from (safe) interest elsewhere via bonds and lending.

Why gold isn't rising is not clear - because more inflation means 'safe havens' should be picking up, but that may take time.  Maybe paper gold is not what people want (which is what most of the gold market actually is).

[Last of the V8s]

^+1 WOmerit to kurious

6k potential bottom?
time to catch the train?

[milkshock100]

6k potential bottom?
time to catch the train?

Yes 6200 and no lower now

[SonoCoin]

dont jump the gun

[willope]

^+1 WOmerit to kurious

6k potential bottom?
time to catch the train?

Where is the train on the picture?