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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26402070 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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March 08, 2019, 02:43:00 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

Good morning guys.

1h


3h


----------
100 day smoothed moving averages

1h


D


W

#stronghands'19


F*ck I'm not very good at these graphs but for some reason they look very bullish to me!  Cool
LFC_Bitcoin
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March 08, 2019, 02:50:02 PM

F*ck I'm not very good at these graphs but for some reason they look very bullish to me!  Cool

They are, we have tested support levels & bounced back up each time. All points towards the bottom being already in & we’ll start to test higher resistance levels.

The same happened in 2015 after the Gox crash. We’re still in a period of sideways but expect to leave the valley of death behind & begin to chip away testing higher resistance points.
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March 08, 2019, 02:56:22 PM

F*ck I'm not very good at these graphs but for some reason they look very bullish to me!  Cool

They are, we have tested support levels & bounced back up each time. All points towards the bottom being already in & we’ll start to test higher resistance levels.

The same happened in 2015 after the Gox crash. We’re still in a period of sideways but expect to leave the valley of death behind & begin to chip away testing higher resistance points.

Bad news from my side.

One of my long term client changed the payment method. BTC to Fiat now.

Maybe now he knows too that he should HoDL: Smiley
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March 08, 2019, 03:05:10 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Venture Capitalist Says Bitcoin Will Soon Be Used For Everyday Purchases.

Draper continues to hold on to his hopes regarding the bitcoin. Despite having a low value as of now, Draper believes that the bitcoin would reach a whopping $250,000 value by 2022.

http://en.businesstimes.cn/articles/108916/20190308/venture-capitalist-says-bitcoin-will-soon-be-used-for-everyday-purchases.htm

$250,000 / 2022

Buy more BTC Cool

Bought £100 worth on LBC literally about 10 minutes ago. It’s not a lot but every little helps. I’m not exactly happy about us still being in the $3,000’s but I try to always be positive in life & find good things even out of shit situations.

I was on the verge of being what I’d consider as rich at the peak of the last bull run. Unfortunately I sold nothing but out of a bad situation I’m now increasing my stash so I’ll hopefully be even more wealthy than I would have been the next time we moon.

Hope you’re all having a good day gentlemen. Here’s to breaking $4,000 this weekend.



In the same way, from time to time I buy $ 100, my income at this time does not allow me to make larger purchases, but 100/100/100 are adding up. Wink
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March 08, 2019, 03:08:38 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1), machasm (1)

@VB1001 - When I started buying £100 bought nearly 1 whole bitcoin. Fast forward 5 years & imagine if we see that % increase in price in another 5 years. This is why you should never doubt yourself buying smaller amounts.

£100 worth of BTC now could be worth a shit load in 5 years. As I always say buy what you can afford to when you can afford to now & enjoy the profits in the future.

One day my friend all the patience will be rewarded.
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March 08, 2019, 03:13:32 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

An article about Tim Draper and Bitcoin :

Starbucks Will Laugh if You Still Use Cash in 3 Years: Bitcoin Bull Draper

https://www.ccn.com/starbucks-will-laugh-if-you-still-use-cash-in-3-years-bitcoin-bull-draper

“I think when you go to Starbucks to buy a cup of coffee, and you try to pay with dollars, they will laugh at you because you are not using bitcoin or other cryptocurrency. They’ll laugh at you – it will be like the old lady paying out with pennies.”
...
“Down the road, when we can easily spend, or invest, or do whatever we want with cryptocurrencies—they’re frictionless, they cost you less. I mean, just by that alone, just that they cost you less, it’s going to be better for people. And so they’re going to move to crypto, and they’re going to go away from the political currency—they call it fiat.”
...
“This is going to be the biggest change in the history of the world and it’s so exciting. I thought the internet was super exciting, but this is going to completely change everything and the government itself is going to change.”
...
“In fact, I am more confident in my Bitcoin than I am in the U.S. dollars in Wells Fargo.”
...
“Over time, when they start taking bitcoin, I’m going to be pretty much moving everything [out of the banks]. There is no reason to hold on to shells, when you’ve got gold.”
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March 08, 2019, 03:14:54 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

@VB1001 - When I started buying £100 bought nearly 1 whole bitcoin. Fast forward 5 years & imagine if we see that % increase in price in another 5 years. This is why you should never doubt yourself buying smaller amounts.

£100 worth of BTC now could be worth a shit load in 5 years. As I always say buy what you can afford to when you can afford to now & enjoy the profits in the future.

One day my friend all the patience will be rewarded.

The Bitcoin bull is under construction  Wink

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March 08, 2019, 03:17:46 PM

@VB1001 - When I started buying £100 bought nearly 1 whole bitcoin. Fast forward 5 years & imagine if we see that % increase in price in another 5 years. This is why you should never doubt yourself buying smaller amounts.

£100 worth of BTC now could be worth a shit load in 5 years. As I always say buy what you can afford to when you can afford to now & enjoy the profits in the future.

One day my friend all the patience will be rewarded.

The Bitcoin bull is under construction  Wink



SOON......

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March 08, 2019, 03:20:50 PM

An article about Tim Draper and Bitcoin :

Starbucks Will Laugh if You Still Use Cash in 3 Years: Bitcoin Bull Draper


Great, just what I need, more condescension from the local hipster barista...
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March 08, 2019, 03:28:55 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Don't want to sound bullish because I am not (yet) and we are not even sure the DEFINITIVE bottom is already in... but everything is going exactly as probably expected. Let's see if it keeps going like that.

Hope not to jinx it for saying this.







<-
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March 08, 2019, 03:55:26 PM

French Regulator Seeks To Ban Anonymous Crypto Coins

And monero goes -%1.6 down.


Coincidence? I don't think so.

Satoshi probably knew that would happen eventually that's why he went full transparent.
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March 08, 2019, 03:55:57 PM

^^
Bitserve in descapitulation, I'm glad. Cool
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March 08, 2019, 04:00:43 PM

French Regulator Seeks To Ban Anonymous Crypto Coins

And monero goes -%1.6 down.


Coincidence? I don't think so.

Satoshi probably knew that would happen eventually that's why he went full transparent.

Actually the guy who said that, Eric Woerth is not in the government. He is just a politician who has zero influence on French regulations towards cryptos.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Woerth

So basically those articles about France wanting to ban privacy coins are BS.
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March 08, 2019, 04:01:39 PM

^^
Bitserve in descapitulation, I'm glad. Cool

I reckon he’s just superstitious & doesn’t want to jinx it. In reality he’s checking the price every couple of hours dressed as a bull holding a green dildo Cheesy
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March 08, 2019, 04:02:19 PM
Merited by nutildah (1)

An article about Tim Draper and Bitcoin :

Starbucks Will Laugh if You Still Use Cash in 3 Years: Bitcoin Bull Draper


Great, just what I need, more condescension from the local hipster barista...

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March 08, 2019, 04:06:12 PM

Don't want to sound bullish because I am not (yet) and we are not even sure the DEFINITIVE bottom is already in... but everything is going exactly as probably expected. Let's see if it keeps going like that.

Hope not to jinx it for saying this.







<-
So I'm not the only one who sees Bitcoin's price chart in such obvious bull patterns?
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March 08, 2019, 04:07:28 PM

You know what guys, I think 4k is getting breached this weekend.
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March 08, 2019, 04:07:45 PM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

It is not a prediction.  It is a description of various possible scenarios.  

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.

Here is my opinion on this matter. All three scenarios would give one a very high probability of being correct in declaring a Bull Market. The nuance here that is important is that the Bull Market would not start on the day one of these conditions was met, it would still have begun on December 15, 2018. Bear Markets have a way of beating a lot of bulls down and making them set a very high bar for what it would take for them to consider the market to have flipped back to bull.

We might be close to agreement in part of this here statement, but let me explain a bit. 

This is not about whether anyone is getting "beaten down" or losing spirits, so we do not cheerlead in order to attempt to change the truth or the reality that we are in, but a significant difference in how a market is labelled would cause different outcomes in the assignment of probabilities for BTC price direction.

For example, in a bear market the probability for down might be 52/48  however in a bull market that probability for down might shift to 48/52.  It's an attempt at an objective assignment about probabilities NOT about how any one feels in particular.  Feelings don't matter very much when assigning probabilities, and they also might get in the way of reality to attempt to take them into account in terms of how you judge the market or how you might want others to feel about the BTC price or market situation.


I was very dedicated to accumulating stocks and index fund investments for years before Bitcoin came along and saved me. Bear and bull markets traditionally are measured by 20 percent moves, but this would be ridiculous in Bitcoin because by that metric we would have had countless bear and bull markets in the last ten years.

Agreed.  We are not going to use some of the traditional market measures here both because bitcoin is not anywhere near a mature market, and bitcoin is very likely in an scurve exponential adoption curve that overall skews its whole price performance dynamics more in terms of UP and explosive up, even though sometimes in the short term the explosive up dynamics and possibilities can get lost in the mix.

This forces us to arbitrarily pick what constitutes a Bull or Bear market.

It may feel arbitrary, and that is why I attempted to set forth some dynamics in which I would be ready and willing to change the label that I assign.


We are the pioneers laying down what future generations of coiners will consider traditional.

I don't know about that.  There may be some truth that there is no other asset class exactly like BTC previously or in the future, but once BTC matures, its market dynamics are likely going to change as well to those dynamics of a more mature market where traditional tools might become more applicable to it, perhaps?

I do think it is important to distinguish the difference between a circumstance giving one confidence that we are in a Bull Market, vs that circumstance marking the beginning of said Bull Market.

Even if subsequently, it is decided that the bullmarket started, as you said in December 2018, it does not change the current dynamic that we are not yet in such bullmarket in terms of current reasonable and prudent assignment of short term BTC price dynamic possibilities.  Currently, those market dynamics remain in favor of down, which is thus a bear market, so calling it otherwise is erroneous at least and perhaps deceptive.

You might say that for a sports team that has languished through terrible seasons to have turned itself around and have a good season that the team would need to meet a goal like making the playoffs, or having a winning record 3 quarters into the season, etc.

Could be a fair analogy.

However if the team gets to the playoffs and you say, well there you go, that team that used to be trash is having a good season, you would be correct. It would also be correct to point out that the good season started in the first play of the first regular season game and the former trash team was having a good season all along, many just didnt believe in them till they made the playoffs.

fair enough.. but who cares?  The odds were against such trashy team until a certain momentum point.

A few hardcore fans would have been going to pre-season games and cheering on their beloved team from the beginning.

Again, you can cheer all you want, but it does not change dynamics.  The outcome is not inevitable, and even though the outcome ends up becoming 100%, once it happens, it does not change the dynamics that the outcome might have been 48% two months earlier. or even two days before when the unlikely outcome ended up actually happening against the odds.

It is stupid and irresponsible to call any outcome as 100%, especially when in the future.


Bitcoin has had a shit season, no doubt. I believe that Bitcoin will make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, win the World Series, win the Stanley Cup, win the Masters, win the World Cup, unify the boxing heavyweight titles, and win the UFC heavyweight championship. I realize many wont believe until they see more results, but I say.................

83 days into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well Cheesy

You can believe all you want, that does not change where we are at, currently, which is in a bear market with 48/52 or whatever odds in favor/against short term up or phrased another way the bottom NOT actually being "in"..
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March 08, 2019, 04:10:32 PM

Anonymous based coins are always subject to regulation issues, it's just the nature of them. I wouldn't be confident in them for being a long term investment.

They're all going to be expunged from authorised exchanges eventually but that certainly won't mean they're worthless. It's going to be very interesting to observe where they settle and grow once it's clear that's going to happen.
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March 08, 2019, 04:23:26 PM


I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back.  

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.

I looked back at all my posts in Feb 2018, when I labelled this a Bear Market, due for an 85% drop.  I have never really changed my mind.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30067641#msg30067641

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29643594#msg29643594

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30196222#msg30196222

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30244256#msg30244256

Yep... all assertions of this as a bear market, before mid November 2018, were premature....  Tongue Tongue Tongue  even though you ended up being subsequently correct.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

$2k low can still happen.  (I would say around 30% probability now). The longer it stays above £3200 the less likely, but only if there is a creeping rise. Bumping along the bottom is not a good sign. The BTC waves are getting longer as the adoption/market matures, and therefore it might not be possible to call the low being in until at least 2020, worst case 2021.  


We are kind of on the same page, here.

Regarding your test levels, my own instinct is that a move above $4k which doesn't get reversed for at least 6 months, would be the earliest possible prediction of a bull trend. Even that might be premature.


I might revisit that later, but I think currently I am comfortable with what i said.. and I used staying above $4.5k for 6 months as my rough marker for that.

In the end it's all down to probabilities. Anyone who makes firm dogmatic predictions is due for a lot of disappointments in their trading.


Don't get me wrong.  If I change into saying that we are now in a bull market, I will also have some conditions for converting back to saying that we are in a bear market after that, so maybe I would only be in such saying that we are in a bull market for a short period of time, if the conditions don't sufficiently hold up in order to sustain such new status.

 My own instinct, taking all things into consideration, is that there is a 50% chance we touch $5k sometime this year (but may still end sub4k in December) 30% chance there is a new sub3k low, and the bear ends in late 2021. 10% it gets $5k-6k by end year, 5% deep freeze (sub 2k), and 5% moon (that would be ~8k by year end).


You and I are coming closer on some of these numbers - though I would tweak them a bit more towards the upside and put the dragging out period shorter, even worse case scenarios, because even though momentum carries dynamics, the halvening in May-ish is going to have its own dynamics too that kind of cuts into some of the more bearish paintings of possible negative outcomes.

Keep up the hopium. I'm a bull too, but a realistic one !


Hahahahaha... That comes off as a bit patronizing..  but maybe you are just trying to get a bit of a dig in... ?

further edit :  I suppose I should give a 10% for 'other', just to be more exacting, so label 'touch 5k this year' as 40%.

Touching $5k is likely NOT as difficult as maintaining, but of course, you know that, too.
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