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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26406420 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 07:50:40 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

It is not a prediction.  It is a description of various possible scenarios. 

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 08:00:00 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019


Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy 

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios.  Shocked
HairyMaclairy
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March 08, 2019, 08:03:49 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019


Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios.  Shocked

Schelling point is $3.  If you had said 3) BTC price does not break below $3,323 for at least one year, then it would have been much nicer

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 08:07:42 AM

Not that I am encouraging spending BTC, but sometimes it can be nice to have possible easy access to emergency funds through BTC, especially when traveling, right?  Do you see any BTC teller machines? around manila or other cities?

Yes, but they are specifically limited to Manila. Funny story: the first time I ever went to the Philippines I only brought US dollars, being naive enough to think they would generally accept them (they do not). My big plan was to cash out BTC for pesos, which I did in the BTC ATM in Manila. The transaction was taking so long, the security guard looked at me and said I should just go to a bank. But sure enough, after 30 minutes, out popped my pesos. Only months afterward did I learn about the moneychangers.

There is a $5 standard ATM withdrawal fee for foreign debit cards, a bit pricey.

What's interesting is all the 7-Elevens have these "cash in" machines where you can cash pesos in to BTC via Coins.ph (by far the most popular wallet in the country). Going the other way isn't so easy -- you have to use a remittance service like Cebuana or M Lhullier, though sometimes I can do a cardless cashout at a Security Bank ATM (that feature has a lot of downtime though). All can be done through Coins.ph -- you can also load your phone will minutes, text or data. It truly is a great service that uses BTC for what it was intended, which is why millions of Filipinos have a Coins.ph wallet.

You can actually save money by converting straight from BTC to pesos, skipping USD. Its cheaper than paying the ATM withdrawal fee. Sometimes I get paid in BTC from my job, so I cash out to myself, or my girlfriend, or her family, etc.

Unfortunately, most people associate bitcoin with "scam" here still. There's not a high level of financial literacy, and a lot of poverty, so people frequently get sucked into cloud mining / ponzi / bitcoin doubler schemes. Its pretty sad. Generally speaking, those in the know have a high regard for BTC and those who only hear about it through anecdotal evidence do not -- same as anywhere, really.

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 08:19:09 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1)

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019


Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios.  Shocked

Schelling point is $3.  If you had said 3) BTC price does not break below $3,323 for at least one year, then it would have been much nicer

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020

O.k.  I am self-loathing to admit it.  I screwed up.

Therefore, since I don't like to feel badly about myself, I take back all of the good things that I had ever said about you (if they were to exist) (even if I will leave all posts - unedited), and I will also take back any good thoughts that I was considering having about you, too.

On the other hand, it is kind of nice to convert my attempt at a descriptive statement regarding conditions out of a bear market into a predictive statement and confirming that the bull market is beginning, soontm  (that is if we can describe 11 months from now, as soon tm?).
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 08:25:05 AM

Regarding current BTC price:

HairyMaclairy
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March 08, 2019, 08:25:29 AM

Thank you, you are very funny.  As in amusing.  Not odd.  Not odder than myself or anyone else here.  Which is a low bar but I enjoy our group of misfits.
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March 08, 2019, 08:25:33 AM

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.

Cool, let me know if you do, I can give you some suggestions.

Mic went (is going) to some really beachy / tropically locales, which are all quite nice. I'm more of a city person myself.
Syke
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March 08, 2019, 08:32:49 AM

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip.

Yeah, to do that effectively, you need to hold balances in both places so that you can execute instantly. Definitely risky.
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 08:37:28 AM

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.

Cool, let me know if you do, I can give you some suggestions.

Mic went (is going) to some really beachy / tropically locales, which are all quite nice. I'm more of a city person myself.
 

Thanks.  Learning tricks and specialties of each locale can sometimes take a lot of practice, so likely it is good to attempt to learn from others, too.  Possibly avoid some mistakes along the way.
El duderino_
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March 08, 2019, 08:39:22 AM

The six richest people in the world have a larger net worth separately than the entire market cap of Bitcoin.

The fact that a single person holds more value than Bitcoin, the future global payment currency, shows how early we are.

Accumulate Bitcoin. Every Satoshi matters. $BTC

https://twitter.com/cryptosbatman/status/1103657392217223168?s=21
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March 08, 2019, 08:39:45 AM

In theory the USDT/USDC spread should mirror the Bitfinex premium.  I can’t be bothered checking it.
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March 08, 2019, 08:41:10 AM

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/goldtelegraph_/status/1103735429059231744?s=21
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March 08, 2019, 08:41:17 AM

LastoftheV8TrilemmaShills is now filing FALSE REPORTS against me.  ...

I’m not gonna search for things..... but i just know V8 isn’t really someone thats a liar.....

Yeah, I was as surprised as anyone might be to learn that V8 is a whiny bitch in the shadows. And that's all I'm gonna need to say about that.

It's unbelievable how big of a piece of shit, female acting male Last of the V8s is.  I do not own any Bcash and do not care about Bcash, but he filed a report against you for simply owning Bcash, which is hilarious.  Then he files a report against me for stating an opinion that JayJuanGee is probably a more trustworthy shitcoiner than Bob because Bob was posting "hodl", "to the moon!" and "buy more!" spam while he was dumping $5 million worth of shitcoins on you people. Both of them post all the same bulltard spam, but at least JayJuanGee was not selling while spamming it.
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March 08, 2019, 08:44:24 AM

Every Satoshi matters.

Well I have definitely screwed up that one
HairyMaclairy
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March 08, 2019, 08:47:40 AM
Last edit: March 08, 2019, 09:03:44 AM by HairyMaclairy

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮


College tuition in Belgium

Quote
Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies
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March 08, 2019, 08:55:03 AM

The USA is corrupt.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

You need an IQ of zero to not be able to figure out that education in the US is stupidly expensive because the US govt is underwriting the loans.  It's supply and demand.  There's a finite amount of teachers and classrooms, so if you create loans that anyone can take without putting up any collateral, EVERYONE will take them and cause the price to skyrocket to artificially high prices and then probably implode the financial and education system with it.  

If it was real capitalism, you would have to apply to a private lender without the govt involved and nobody would get student loans without putting up collateral, and yes, less people would get loans, but the ones who did get them would only take a few years to pay them back instead of 20+ years.  People claim the system HAS to exist this way to give a chance of upward ability to black noggers from the ghetto, but that's all a scam.  The system exists this way solely to drive up prices and force people into bigger loans that end in life long debt slavery.
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March 08, 2019, 08:57:39 AM

Every Satoshi matters.

Well I have definitely screwed up that one

There cheap FIX them back the ones you screwed up on

Btw we have the HM timeline so you know how long they Will be in the cheap-zone Wink
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March 08, 2019, 08:59:53 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

I could perfectly live with all 3 of those.... but never underestimate the suddenly big movements of BTC, i love those..... the ones when nobody expect them and everybody needs to adjust there TA’s Cheesy
But for normal moves those 3 are good and in line with HM’s 6K december price range

I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back. 

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.

So largely, going up and staying up would  be your main indicators. Right.
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March 08, 2019, 09:02:48 AM

LastoftheV8TrilemmaShills is now filing FALSE REPORTS against me.  ...

I’m not gonna search for things..... but i just know V8 isn’t really someone thats a liar.....

Yeah, I was as surprised as anyone might be to learn that V8 is a whiny bitch in the shadows. And that's all I'm gonna need to say about that.

It's unbelievable how big of a piece of shit, female acting male Last of the V8s is.  I do not own any Bcash and do not care about Bcash, but he filed a report against you for simply owning Bcash, which is hilarious.  Then he files a report against me for stating an opinion that JayJuanGee is probably a more trustworthy shitcoiner than Bob because Bob was posting "hodl", "to the moon!" and "buy more!" spam while he was dumping $5 million worth of shitcoins on you people. Both of them post all the same bulltard spam, but at least JayJuanGee was not selling while spamming it.

I do sell.  I have a system for selling BTC... especially if the price goes up.   I sell about 1% of the my stash for every 10% the value of BTC goes up.  I tweak a bit here and there in terms of some of the selling specifics, but I do sell as the price goes up and buy back as the price goes down. 

So you are mistaken regarding your point about my supposedly NOT selling BTC... and I sold a lot all the way up to $19,666.  I started buying back in the $19k territory as the price was going down..  Members here make a decent variety of choices about buying and selling and even though Bob might have been all over the map, I doubt that he was trying to trick anyone regarding what he was doing.. and the market is way too BIG for any one particular person to have any meaningful effect either way, even if Bob happened to sell a lot relatively speaking compared with others in this thread.
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