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Poll
Question: New ATH today?
Yes - 35 (79.5%)
No - 9 (20.5%)
Total Voters: 44

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25466486 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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February 28, 2019, 10:51:04 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)

JJG3: The Italian Job

Wait actually that is unfair, they don't compare. fillippone's English is very good, and his content too.

JJG3: #rekt in Italy
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February 28, 2019, 11:08:20 PM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1)

JJG3: The Italian Job

Wait actually that is unfair, they don't compare. fillippone's English is very good, and his content too.

JJG3: #rekt in Italy
Dear Lord, there’s an inside Joke and a 22k pages thread. I think I’m lost.
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February 28, 2019, 11:16:46 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)

yuh not one of my best ones. just some geezer who writes unfeasibly long posts here in broken robo-English
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February 28, 2019, 11:20:42 PM



more human ??
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February 28, 2019, 11:21:46 PM



El duderino_
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February 28, 2019, 11:23:00 PM

JoJo you got the thread like let us say for a week or 2-3?

lol

micG-----> into HODLsleeps

good night WO's
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February 28, 2019, 11:35:37 PM

I will try to tweak this over the coming months and see if it has any value, but if anyone else better at working this out wants to try - and can factor in more sophisticated statistical analysis (standard deviation etc.) that would be good..

I think calculating the correlation coefficient will give you what you want.  Expect it will be quite high. 



I think a vague positive correlation might be present - but it has to be useful enough to be able to forward map reasonably well.  it may involve 'bending time' by having an overlap that differs - making one XX month period longer or shorter against the other, fading sharper moves by averaging to a line of travel if a given % of change is over a certain ratio, or factoring in when certain MAs cross as start and end points for a range (when the halving comes etc.)  

Basically any mathematically sound and constant fix that looks a better fit by playing with it over a decent long term period of the two comparable cycles that have - ostensibly - some key things in common because of Bitcoin's unique cyclical nature.

The drop from top to bottom seemingly correlates in percentage terms, for a start - so it's not a total wild goose chase.

It's not really my field, but I'll try and wrap my head around ways to work on it - then test (and back test) to see how I can get anything close enough.  So far it 'looks' like we aren't moving as fast away from the bottom as in 2015 - because it was a sharper 'snap' down-and-up in '15 than from the last bottom.  I need to look at correlations with opening price, closing price, high and low (or maybe weighted average) to see which (if any) are better fits as time goes on.  Then see if I can work on and refine any promising factor so it gives me a better prediction.  Daily may not be as close as three day candles etc.

So far I can only get data easily for daily historical data in CSV easily, so I shall hunt down other sources (I can get per minute historical data, too - but I am not sure it will help) I only want to see repeating patterns that occasionally will give a prediction with a better than even chance correctly guessing likely direction and a rough price range within a range of + or - XX% in say XX days time +/- X days ?

If I can find anything close enough to be useful - or find no real correlation at all, it will be worth knowing.   I hope I can learn something - even if it is just my own limits Wink
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February 28, 2019, 11:51:23 PM

So the poll is over and it seems 17.3% of the voters were expecting prices over $6,000 ! Where is that confidence coming from ?  Cheesy
We need more negativity before things start going better.... because.. that's how things usually happen! Roll Eyes
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February 28, 2019, 11:52:21 PM

So the poll is over and it seems 17.3% of the voters were expecting prices over $6,000 ! Where is that confidence coming from ?  Cheesy
We need more negativity before things start going better.... because.. that's how things usually happen! Roll Eyes
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March 01, 2019, 12:09:59 AM

Hello again guys.

First I want to than all of you who congratulated me on my birthday, I really don't have the stamina nor the time to go back and check each one of you right now, so I thank you all this way.

I would also like to thank everybody who wished I would get better.
I am much better now, a harsh dose of cortisone broke the relapse it seems, I'm not back to normal, but a lot better then two days ago.

I would also like to return the birthday hat, I'm sorry Homer, but it seems like it gave me bad luck.

  < image of birthday hat that I don't know how to put here.
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March 01, 2019, 12:47:50 AM

Hello again guys.

First I want to than all of you who congratulated me on my birthday, I really don't have the stamina nor the time to go back and check each one of you right now, so I thank you all this way.

I would also like to thank everybody who wished I would get better.
I am much better now, a harsh dose of cortisone broke the relapse it seems, I'm not back to normal, but a lot better then two days ago.

I would also like to return the birthday hat, I'm sorry Homer, but it seems like it gave me bad luck.

  < image of birthday hat that I don't know how to put here.

 Bad luck?  Are you sure?  The hat works in mysterious wsys; it may have been a blessing in disguise.
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March 01, 2019, 12:58:47 AM

yuh not one of my best ones. just some geezer who writes unfeasibly long posts here in broken robo-English
Hey!
I write long post but my broken English is 100% human!
But actually I’m broken.
So, broken-human English, rather than broken robo-English.

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March 01, 2019, 01:22:25 AM

Hello again guys.

First I want to than all of you who congratulated me on my birthday, I really don't have the stamina nor the time to go back and check each one of you right now, so I thank you all this way.

I would also like to thank everybody who wished I would get better.
I am much better now, a harsh dose of cortisone broke the relapse it seems, I'm not back to normal, but a lot better then two days ago.

I would also like to return the birthday hat, I'm sorry Homer, but it seems like it gave me bad luck.

  < image of birthday hat that I don't know how to put here.

 Bad luck?  Are you sure?  The hat works in mysterious wsys; it may have been a blessing in disguise.


Oh, I'm sure.
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March 01, 2019, 01:34:33 AM

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/avmnjs/daily_discussion_thursday_february_28_2019/

WhyDontYouTryIt

2 hours ago
"It seems the battle for the steep uptrend (yellow) has been lost. Time to regroup at the blue trendline..."



zoom out:





Fits nicely w my take that we are gonna hit 3400 before the next big surge up. Buy the Bull Market Dip if it happens gents! Grin

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March 01, 2019, 01:43:33 AM

Hello again guys.

First I want to than all of you who congratulated me on my birthday, I really don't have the stamina nor the time to go back and check each one of you right now, so I thank you all this way.

I would also like to thank everybody who wished I would get better.
I am much better now, a harsh dose of cortisone broke the relapse it seems, I'm not back to normal, but a lot better then two days ago.

I would also like to return the birthday hat, I'm sorry Homer, but it seems like it gave me bad luck.

  < image of birthday hat that I don't know how to put here.

 Bad luck?  Are you sure?  The hat works in mysterious wsys; it may have been a blessing in disguise.


Oh, I'm sure.

 Sorry to hear that.  I'll have to redesign the  birthday hat.
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March 01, 2019, 02:29:31 AM

Drying painted Wall Observers.
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March 01, 2019, 02:29:52 AM

JoJo you got the thread like let us say for a week or 2-3?

lol

micG-----> into HODLsleeps

good night WO's


uhhh

oh man, we're fucked
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March 01, 2019, 02:33:44 AM
Merited by bitserve (1)

Elwar's thing is live  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTXhgcXA1pM&app=desktop
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March 01, 2019, 02:35:24 AM


Great! Thanks for the heads up! I completely forgot.
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March 01, 2019, 02:42:08 AM

Looks good Elwar, always nice to see a face of someone I feel like I (sorta) know.
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