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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (2.9%)
7/28 - 4 (11.4%)
8/4 - 7 (20%)
8/11 - 3 (8.6%)
8/18 - 1 (2.9%)
8/25 - 1 (2.9%)
After August - 18 (51.4%)
Total Voters: 35

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26416049 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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March 13, 2019, 06:40:44 AM

LN worries me, the ship heels to centralize too much, or am I not distinguishing the future LN correctly?
 Shocked
LN brings efficiency and mass adoption as an additional layer on top of the choice of decentralization. The latter is currently not really possible in any sensible way. And even with LN, Bitcoin remains capped, so no more printing press to steal money from workers through inflation.
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March 13, 2019, 06:41:00 AM

But why? How is it being used?
To learn how to use it. And to establish reputation for the future. Both of which imply a chance for passive income down the road.

There's really no such thing as "passive income." There's legitimate income and then there's income from scams, like MLMs and Ponzis. With investing and lending you still need to exercise extreme diligence in order to make a profit, so I wouldn't call those "passive" either.

Hey, nutildah, them is fighting words.



hahahaha

What I would like to say is that "passive income" is something that many folks aspire to.  Of course, there is some relativity to how passive is the income, which as you describe, even some passive income sources are going to require a certain amount of work through calculations, monitoring, rebalancing and/or other activities causing them from being less than purely passive.

At the same time, let's not let the perfect be the enemy of the good, and let's use bitcoin accumulation as an example.  Let's say that you have a lifestyle that you believe requires around $36k per year of income to support yourself comfortably, so in that case you would need to have $900k in assets to reasonably generate that kind of income (that is attempting to apply traditional value appreciation assumptions to bitcoin and assuming a withdrawal rate of 4% per year 1% per quarter will not deplete capital, and largely just be digging into asset appreciation).  At today's BTC prices, that would be establishing a stash of about 233 BTC.  

In other words, if your income goal is $36k per year, then 233BTC should help you to largely and mostly achieve passive income status, and the only work that you would need to do is accounting for your withdrawal of about 1% per quarter and any other accounting or security precautions of moving around assets precautions that you believe would be prudent for your own piece of mind.. and/or perhaps changes in your perceptions of the security parameters of your assets.  

Of course, if you want to live in higher luxury or if you believe that you need a bit more of a value cushion in order to ensure your about $36k per year of withdrawal rate (aka passive income), then you could either acquire more bitcoin or wait for the BTC price to go up to a sufficient value before you begin to employ your withdrawal plan of 1% per quarter - passive income plan.

I understand that a lot of peeps here seem to believe that they need more than $36k per year, yet there are also people who definitely understand that they can live on a lot less too, such as $18k per year, and $36k would be a kind of doubling cushion.. nonetheless, because bitcoin has tended to be quite volatile, just to be a lot more comfortable there may be some justification to double your accumulation, or at least calculate your accumulation goal based on worse case BTC price scenarios... such as halfing the BTC price.. from today's price... or something like that.  

Of course, another error that guys in this thread seemed to have made in late 2017 was calculating their retirement and level of richness based on exponentially increasing BTC prices rather than based on correction prices, such as where we are today, and perhaps even using half of todays prices for safety measures.. just to be more prudent in NOT retiring too soon and expecting to live comfortably with the BTC level that you had then accumulated.  


The whole point of using Lightning is that its faster and cheaper than on-chain transactions. If you set your channel fee too high people will bypass it and you will make less income than you did by setting a low fee. If the cost of doing a lightning transaction supersedes that of an on-chain transaction, people will simply revert to transacting on-chain.


I agree with you about the lighting network NOT being a good way to aim towards passive income, at least in the short term, and likely you would need to have way more BTC than what I had mentioned as the 233BTC based on a $3k per month ($36k per year) income from just expected continued BTC appreciation in the coming years of at least 4% per year.

Also, its not overly simple to set up and maintain your own lightning node (though it is a lot easier today than it used to be). Maintaining a consistent internet connection, having to pay for that and the electricity of running your computer also need to be factored into the overall cost.

Kind of reminds me of some folks who planned to get rich by BTC mining, when in the end, they would have done a lot better just buying coins with the amount of money they spent to mine bitcoin.  Though mining did pay off handsomely for some folks, too, and I certainly appreciate miners, and some miners actually feel more comfortable because they are engaging on a higher level with their investment, as compared with some smuck like me who only HODLs coins and spouts off on the interwebs on a regular basis without really engaging on a personal level with the BTC technicals.
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March 13, 2019, 07:02:12 AM

A taxi accepting bitcoin in Barcelona.  The virus is spreading.  #bitcoin

Nice!

https://twitter.com/rivetacrypto/status/1105613744070164481?s=21
At least good news from South America. After Argentina now Brazil is ready for mass adoption. A virus is spreading faster than I expected.

Brazil? I am pretty sure Barcelona is in Spain. Wink

Unless he is mentioning some infamous small town with the same name located in Brazil.

I was in Barcelona (the famous one we all know) last summer and saw some "hodl" tags on the walls of many buildings. It is absolutely popular there.
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March 13, 2019, 07:10:26 AM

Ummm these girls don’t look 18 to me

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March 13, 2019, 07:11:14 AM

(fair points)

Fair point. I just have a personal aversion to the term as its usually associated with "get rich quick" schemes on the forum.
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March 13, 2019, 07:16:17 AM

So, predictions. If I am correct that all the social ills and psychological and behavioral problems of our time is primarily caused by overpopulation and life being too easy for generations at a time, then there are only a very small number of possible future outcomes.

The first one that a lot of people will probably jump to is that we simply wait for the boomers to die and then everything will be fine after that. Not going to happen. Things always change, and always towards the left over time.

Other than that, the only option is a violent reduction in numbers. War, pestilence or famine. Given the current understanding of the amygdala, war is most likely to come in the form of a soviet-style collapse. The states will continue to become ever more tyrannical until we have an economic collapse, which will result in lowered food production and a lot of dead people.

So if soviet conditions are the most likely near-future outcome, what to do about it?

Flee. Simple as that. If you stay, odds are you will be locked up or have all your property stolen or simply end up shot. Let the disease burn itself out, and when the rebuilding begins in 10-30 years it might be time to come back if you feel like it by then. But staying through it is simply too dangerous and there is no reward.


On a side note, I have gained a new appreciation for the importance and role of religion during these studies. Maybe a topic for another time.

I agree with overpopulation to become a real world issue..... and i belief many NEW Born kids or their newborns Will be kids living in a world of much suffer and etc
Even for very rich people kids, i think the world needs big changes to see it become Nice again, cause all day seeing suffering in all those places (even while your not there) is something hard to always see or hear about

But but when you live @denmark or what was it ? And still live their Then what are you talking about to flee while your not doing it

Act first how you think Then tell others to do the same Roll Eyes (and where are you gonna go to.....? If you ever flee?)
My country is not Sweden or Germany or England or France. There is still a few years to work with.

Anywhere not europe or US or Canada or Australia or muslim or african.
Ibian
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March 13, 2019, 07:18:29 AM

So, predictions. If I am correct that all the social ills and psychological and behavioral problems of our time is primarily caused by overpopulation and life being too easy for generations at a time, then there are only a very small number of possible future outcomes.

The first one that a lot of people will probably jump to is that we simply wait for the boomers to die and then everything will be fine after that. Not going to happen. Things always change, and always towards the left over time.

Population growth has slowed and reversed in many countries.

https://aleteia.org/2019/01/17/american-fertility-rate-plummets-to-below-replacement-level/
The fertility level is the most basic of things to look at, yes. Doesn't change that we don't know what "too much" is. All we know is that Dunbar's number is 150.
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March 13, 2019, 07:19:53 AM

Ummm these girls don’t look 18 to me



Even the billions he owns can't fix his shit taste on women. I am not even talking about the underage stuff here. (Which is a crime already)

I guess he is so retarded or egoistic (ot both), no decent woman with any self respect will show him any love.

His only chance for sex is buying underage ugly girls from Africa.

I am not surprised, Roger is also the same.

You can find many photos of Roger with underage Chinese/Japanese girls wearing "Bch pls" shirts.
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March 13, 2019, 07:25:31 AM
Last edit: March 13, 2019, 07:51:30 AM by Ibian

So, predictions. If I am correct that all the social ills and psychological and behavioral problems of our time is primarily caused by overpopulation and life being too easy for generations at a time, then there are only a very small number of possible future outcomes.

The first one that a lot of people will probably jump to is that we simply wait for the boomers to die and then everything will be fine after that. Not going to happen. Things always change, and always towards the left over time.

Other than that, the only option is a violent reduction in numbers. War, pestilence or famine. Given the current understanding of the amygdala, war is most likely to come in the form of a soviet-style collapse. The states will continue to become ever more tyrannical until we have an economic collapse, which will result in lowered food production and a lot of dead people.

So if soviet conditions are the most likely near-future outcome, what to do about it?

Flee. Simple as that. If you stay, odds are you will be locked up or have all your property stolen or simply end up shot. Let the disease burn itself out, and when the rebuilding begins in 10-30 years it might be time to come back if you feel like it by then. But staying through it is simply too dangerous and there is no reward.


On a side note, I have gained a new appreciation for the importance and role of religion during these studies. Maybe a topic for another time.
While I might agree that reduction of populations could be one solution, I'm not convinced it needs to be war, famine and disease that does it. What if the other option included wealth and education redistribution which ultimately resulted in the same. (John Calhoun's rat experiment) A voluntary or subconscious participation in depopulation could leave our hard fought infrastructure intact where war likely would not.
The constant threat of war plays an important role in our eventual decision to choose another option but failing this, war is ready.
I choose plan BTC
Humans don't act based on logic and facts and numbers. The few who do are the weirdos, the freaks of nature. Humans as a whole act based on subconscious programming. Literal NPCs. This is not something we can reason our way out of.
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March 13, 2019, 07:26:21 AM

At least Australia is not overpopulated, right?
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March 13, 2019, 07:27:27 AM

Ummm these girls don’t look 18 to me


Different men have different tastes.

Some want matured,others teens.So he might interested on these group of girls.

But no one looks attractive he got bad taste. Tongue
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March 13, 2019, 07:37:12 AM

(fair points)

Fair point. I just have a personal aversion to the term as its usually associated with "get rich quick" schemes on the forum.
The WO does not reflect the rest of the forum in any way. While some moonbois get lost here from time to time, people are generally more sensible over here. Although some will be missing out by believing that Bitcoin is the only thing with real future value, which would be equivalent to picking a single website and claiming that all others are and always will be shit-sites during the dot com bubble. Bitcoin is the revolution, but blockchain is still carving out a new era regardless.
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March 13, 2019, 07:39:31 AM
Last edit: March 13, 2019, 07:51:08 AM by BTCMILLIONAIRE

So, predictions. If I am correct that all the social ills and psychological and behavioral problems of our time is primarily caused by overpopulation and life being too easy for generations at a time, then there are only a very small number of possible future outcomes.

The first one that a lot of people will probably jump to is that we simply wait for the boomers to die and then everything will be fine after that. Not going to happen. Things always change, and always towards the left over time.

Other than that, the only option is a violent reduction in numbers. War, pestilence or famine. Given the current understanding of the amygdala, war is most likely to come in the form of a soviet-style collapse. The states will continue to become ever more tyrannical until we have an economic collapse, which will result in lowered food production and a lot of dead people.

So if soviet conditions are the most likely near-future outcome, what to do about it?

Flee. Simple as that. If you stay, odds are you will be locked up or have all your property stolen or simply end up shot. Let the disease burn itself out, and when the rebuilding begins in 10-30 years it might be time to come back if you feel like it by then. But staying through it is simply too dangerous and there is no reward.


On a side note, I have gained a new appreciation for the importance and role of religion during these studies. Maybe a topic for another time.
While I might agree that reduction of populations could be one solution, I'm not convinced it needs to be war, famine and disease that does it. What if the other option included wealth and education redistribution which ultimately resulted in the same. (John Calhoun's rat experiment) A voluntary or subconscious participation in depopulation could leave our hard fought infrastructure intact where war likely would not.
The constant threat of war plays an important role in our eventual decision to choose another option but failing this, war is ready.
I choose plan BTC
Humans don't act based on logic and facts and numbers. The few who do are the weirdos, the freaks of nature. Humans as a whole act based on subconscious programming. This is not something we can reason our way out of.
This is true. However, if you become aware of this you can turn yourself into one as well and thus expand your possibilities. After all, everything that holds us back is the result of adaption to environment encoded in genetics and materializing in habits so to speak. If you understand this you can actively work on breaking those habits and replacing them with new ones that are more fit for our times and your personal situation. Of course that's a major pain in the ass and not necessarily worth it on an individual basis, especially for those who are already well off.
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March 13, 2019, 07:40:49 AM
Last edit: March 13, 2019, 08:01:46 AM by HairyMaclairy

At least Australia is not overpopulated, right?



Boulia Shire is twice the size of Belgium with a population of 600.

 So that’s an average of about 1 person per 100 square km.  And that’s one of the more crowded parts of the Outback.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boulia,_Queensland

Ibian
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March 13, 2019, 07:52:04 AM

At least Australia is not overpopulated, right?
Has the same cultural problems that everyone else does. It's as much about life being too easy for too long, overcrowding just makes it that much worse.
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March 13, 2019, 07:55:55 AM

So, predictions. If I am correct that all the social ills and psychological and behavioral problems of our time is primarily caused by overpopulation and life being too easy for generations at a time, then there are only a very small number of possible future outcomes.

The first one that a lot of people will probably jump to is that we simply wait for the boomers to die and then everything will be fine after that. Not going to happen. Things always change, and always towards the left over time.

Other than that, the only option is a violent reduction in numbers. War, pestilence or famine. Given the current understanding of the amygdala, war is most likely to come in the form of a soviet-style collapse. The states will continue to become ever more tyrannical until we have an economic collapse, which will result in lowered food production and a lot of dead people.

So if soviet conditions are the most likely near-future outcome, what to do about it?

Flee. Simple as that. If you stay, odds are you will be locked up or have all your property stolen or simply end up shot. Let the disease burn itself out, and when the rebuilding begins in 10-30 years it might be time to come back if you feel like it by then. But staying through it is simply too dangerous and there is no reward.


On a side note, I have gained a new appreciation for the importance and role of religion during these studies. Maybe a topic for another time.
While I might agree that reduction of populations could be one solution, I'm not convinced it needs to be war, famine and disease that does it. What if the other option included wealth and education redistribution which ultimately resulted in the same. (John Calhoun's rat experiment) A voluntary or subconscious participation in depopulation could leave our hard fought infrastructure intact where war likely would not.
The constant threat of war plays an important role in our eventual decision to choose another option but failing this, war is ready.
I choose plan BTC
Humans don't act based on logic and facts and numbers. The few who do are the weirdos, the freaks of nature. Humans as a whole act based on subconscious programming. This is not something we can reason our way out of.
This is true. However, if you become aware of this you can turn yourself into one as well and thus expand your possibilities. After all, everything that holds us back is the result of adaption to environment encoded in genetics and materializing in habits so to speak. If you understand this you can actively work on breaking those habits and replacing them with new ones that are more fit for our times and your personal situation. Of course that's a major pain in the ass and not necessarily worth it on an individual basis, especially for those who are already well off.
The problem is that it appears to require a large amygdala in order for critical thought to be possible. As in, physically possible. And it only develops under certain environmental conditions which, for the most part do not exist today. How do you physically alter the brains of millions of people?
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March 13, 2019, 08:05:09 AM

This is true. However, if you become aware of this you can turn yourself into one as well and thus expand your possibilities. After all, everything that holds us back is the result of adaption to environment encoded in genetics and materializing in habits so to speak. If you understand this you can actively work on breaking those habits and replacing them with new ones that are more fit for our times and your personal situation. Of course that's a major pain in the ass and not necessarily worth it on an individual basis, especially for those who are already well off.
The problem is that it appears to require a large amygdala in order for critical thought to be possible. As in, physically possible. And it only develops under certain environmental conditions which, for the most part do not exist today. How do you physically alter the brains of millions of people?
With psychedelic drugs. They have been shown to promote neurogenesis as well as to create new connection between neurons. The effect is the strongest while the substance is in the body, but after-effects remain. Of course, research on this is way behind thanks to our precious governments protecting us.

Another option is technology, namely the kind of stuff Musk is trying to create with Neuralink. But that's still god knows how long away.


Do you know any papers on the amygdala claim by the way? Sounds interesting and would explain why some people can't be reasoned with even if you're being extra nice.
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March 13, 2019, 08:14:19 AM

Also regarding the "life too easy" argument.

I don't think that you necessarily need to encounter extreme "bad" hardship to become capable and a net positive on society as opposed to being a drain. It would probably be enough if there were sufficient incentives in place to periodically push yourself beyond your current limits.

The key element here is overcoming challenges that appear "too big" or even impossible. Going through such of any type is a humbling and rewarding experience and you learn to be much more open-minded.

You can generally tell if a person has accomplished anything (even just being really good at a 'useless' game) based on how they interact with others (over prolonged periods of time, everybody has bad days). Those that never pushed themselves make conclusions. The others question and are willing to learn.
And the more such hardships one conquers the stronger the effect becomes.

But when everything is thrown your way and you don't have to try you just assume that you're perfect, after all everything is going well. Similarly, people who have shitty lives but have a constant voice telling them it's not their fault won't push themselves either and then repeatedly make conclusions as opposed to looking for new ways forward. In arguments this translates to fighting as opposed to looking for unknown variables with the opponent (opponent in the sense of the person opposite of you, not in the sense of an enemy - someone throw me an English word for this please).
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March 13, 2019, 08:16:35 AM

Ummm these girls don’t look 18 to me



They all look ugly too, shit man if I was that rich I’d be surrounded by Eastern European elite escorts Wink
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March 13, 2019, 08:18:04 AM

https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/8079/legendary-financial-market-analyst-and-btc-skeptic-marc-faber-buys-bitcoin.html

Bitcoin scored a major victory by converting a famous nocoiner and Bitcoin hater. You may have seen him over the last few years when Mr. Faber does his typical rounds on CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. He is an old school gold bug and used to mock and deride Bitcoin and its hodlers.
 

"Readers of Faber’s “Gloom, Doom, Doom” report have been encouraging him to buy Bitcoin for years now, he explained. He finally conceded for “learning reasons,” the news outlet reports. Additionally, Faber recently sat down with millionaire entrepreneur Wence Casares, CEO of Xapo - the world’s largest Bitcoin depository and executive director at PayPal - which may have affected his decision."


Many of these famous old school stubborn gold bugs like Mr. Faber, Jim Rickards, and Peter Schiff have been very outspoken critics of Bitcoin. Converting Mr. Faber is a great sign. Next we will convert Schiff, Rickards, and the rest of his ilk and these famous gold bugs will become powerful allies in the run to 100k.

88 days into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well.  Grin
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