I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.
1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months
2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months
3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year
Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?
Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.
It is not a prediction. It is a description of various possible scenarios.
Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.
Here is my opinion on this matter. All three scenarios would give one a very high probability of being correct in declaring a Bull Market. The nuance here that is important is that the Bull Market would not start on the day one of these conditions was met, it would still have begun on December 15, 2018. Bear Markets have a way of beating a lot of bulls down and making them set a very high bar for what it would take for them to consider the market to have flipped back to bull.
We might be close to agreement in part of this here statement, but let me explain a bit.
This is not about whether anyone is getting "beaten down" or losing spirits, so we do not cheerlead in order to attempt to change the truth or the reality that we are in, but a significant difference in how a market is labelled would cause different outcomes in the assignment of probabilities for BTC price direction.
For example, in a bear market the probability for down might be 52/48 however in a bull market that probability for down might shift to 48/52. It's an attempt at an objective assignment about probabilities NOT about how any one feels in particular. Feelings don't matter very much when assigning probabilities, and they also might get in the way of reality to attempt to take them into account in terms of how you judge the market or how you might want others to feel about the BTC price or market situation.
I was very dedicated to accumulating stocks and index fund investments for years before Bitcoin came along and saved me. Bear and bull markets traditionally are measured by 20 percent moves, but this would be ridiculous in Bitcoin because by that metric we would have had countless bear and bull markets in the last ten years.
Agreed. We are not going to use some of the traditional market measures here both because bitcoin is not anywhere near a mature market, and bitcoin is very likely in an scurve exponential adoption curve that overall skews its whole price performance dynamics more in terms of UP and explosive up, even though sometimes in the short term the explosive up dynamics and possibilities can get lost in the mix.
This forces us to arbitrarily pick what constitutes a Bull or Bear market.
It may feel arbitrary, and that is why I attempted to set forth some dynamics in which I would be ready and willing to change the label that I assign.
We are the pioneers laying down what future generations of coiners will consider traditional.
I don't know about that. There may be some truth that there is no other asset class exactly like BTC previously or in the future, but once BTC matures, its market dynamics are likely going to change as well to those dynamics of a more mature market where traditional tools might become more applicable to it, perhaps?
I do think it is important to distinguish the difference between a circumstance giving one confidence that we are in a Bull Market, vs that circumstance marking the beginning of said Bull Market.
Even if subsequently, it is decided that the bullmarket started, as you said in December 2018, it does not change the current dynamic that we are not yet in such bullmarket in terms of current reasonable and prudent assignment of short term BTC price dynamic possibilities. Currently, those market dynamics remain in favor of down, which is thus a bear market, so calling it otherwise is erroneous at least and perhaps deceptive.
You might say that for a sports team that has languished through terrible seasons to have turned itself around and have a good season that the team would need to meet a goal like making the playoffs, or having a winning record 3 quarters into the season, etc.
Could be a fair analogy.
However if the team gets to the playoffs and you say, well there you go, that team that used to be trash is having a good season, you would be correct. It would also be correct to point out that the good season started in the first play of the first regular season game and the former trash team was having a good season all along, many just didnt believe in them till they made the playoffs.
fair enough.. but who cares? The odds were against such trashy team until a certain momentum point.
A few hardcore fans would have been going to pre-season games and cheering on their beloved team from the beginning.
Again, you can cheer all you want, but it does not change dynamics. The outcome is not inevitable, and even though the outcome ends up becoming 100%, once it happens, it does not change the dynamics that the outcome might have been 48% two months earlier. or even two days before when the unlikely outcome ended up actually happening against the odds.
It is stupid and irresponsible to call any outcome as 100%, especially when in the future.
Bitcoin has had a shit season, no doubt.
I believe that Bitcoin will make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, win the World Series, win the Stanley Cup, win the Masters, win the World Cup, unify the boxing heavyweight titles, and win the UFC heavyweight championship. I realize many wont believe until they see more results, but I say.................
83 days into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well 
You can believe all you want, that does not change where we are at, currently, which is in a bear market with 48/52 or whatever odds in favor/against short term up or phrased another way the bottom NOT actually being "in"..
Nobody ever said 100 percent. Nothing is 100 percent, this is just obvious. You say its stupid to call an outcome 100 percent, well I agree with this, never claimed 100 percent accuracy, and will point out this is no revelation.
You have your opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bear Market, I have my opinions on probabilities that we are in a Bull Market and the bottom is in. Neither one of us can prove it, only time will do that. Parading your opinion that market conditions favor down as fact would be deceptive. This is an observation, not an accusation. Admitting its just what you think and anything is possible is fair and honest. Its just your best guess. We are all guessing when it comes to predicting the future. I figured this was a given, but I dont mind pointing it out if its not. Nobody expects every post to have a boilerplate disclaimer paragraph at the bottom of each post explaining how its possible that their predictions might not be 100 percent correct.
Anyway, thanks for the civil response.
I still firmly believe we are 83 days into a Bull Market. This is my current view and only a break to new lows or some major fundamental change will change my opinion.
Poll
