To be honest I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore. Which, for me, could even be good as in not "having" to sell a big percentage of my stash because I assume (maybe wrongly) that lacking a "too bublish" pump the subsequent dump/downtrend/bear market would not hit as hard as previous times.
Of course, we have to prepare for anything, but your scenario does not seem too likely. Of course, we are likely to have lower percentages of gains... Let's just start from 2012/2013, and that rise was well over 100x. I would propose that the 2017 price rise was around 78x, so yeah, we could have a considerable reduction in the next price rise, maybe 20x to 30x or even smaller. I doubt as low as 10x, but hey we have to prepare for less bullish scenarios, you are correct... even though you are coming off as a bit of a pessimist party poop.
And then I start to wonder what others would think/do in that situation... I mean... If the extraordinary gains Bitcoin has given in the past were not there anymore... Would most of you guys keep holding/using it as a store of value or, on the contrary, would that make you cash out an even bigger part of your stash because you were mostly hodling in the expectation of awesome future profits?
Of course, there is going to be all kinds of variation here, especially depending on what stages guys are in... if guys are largely still in accumulation stage, and they have not finished that stage they will have to continue accumulating.
I might not be a very good example for your various hypotheticals, because I personally have already decided to go into a kind of cashing out of 1% every quarter, at some point in the coming years as long as BTC prices are above $5k.. but I can likely wait a few years too... at least tentatively that cashing out of 1% per quarter is what I am thinking based on current cash flows... but I also would not mind increasing my spending and my lifestyle consumption matters too... so it is possible stagnating bitcoin could put some hampering on those considerations.
Of course, no one can predict future results but... let's say Bitcoin does almost nothing after the halving... ie: it finish this year at $10K, then spends most of 2021 between $10K-$15K, then still sideways at around $15K for 2022 or even retraces some to $11K, etc....
Probably would not affect me too much with those numbers.. I might just cash out 1% per quarter... or just hold off cashing out a bit longer.. depending on if I feel that I want to go beyond my current cashflows.
What would you guys do? Keep buying? Just HODL? Sell a substantial part and move into other things? Sell all?
Again, I am likely not a good example for this because I am looking at figuring out ways to spend all of my current cash flow.. which I am still NOT really doing.. and then increase spending in bitcoin, at some point... of course, I am tentatively thinking that if BTC prices go below $5k, then I would likely add new cash to my bitcoin holdings.
And what if year 2023 comes and Bitcoin has still not breached previous ATH not does it looks like it is gonna do it anytime soon?
Might have to adjust plans based on such negativity, and if BTC is not below $5k, might still sell some, but might decide to HODL instead, depending on the BTC price... if it is looking like it might go down, and it is only in the $10k arena, then likely just stick with the plan or just HODL... maybe even change my plan to buy more... and increase my threshold from $5k to $10k.. which would cause me to buy more.
Know what I mean? What would you guys do if/when the constant staircase growing of Bitcoin stagnates?
Yep that is starting to sound like amongst the worser scenarios.. if bitcoin stagnates going towards zero... and does not look like it is going to recover... I think maybe I would just HODL.. Maybe not invest any more and so long as prices are above $5k, would just cash out 1% per quarter in accordance with the earlier threshold considerations. Maybe you are thinking of a different audience for this hypothetical, anyhow?
^^ Wait.... give it 10 mins or so, JJG typing..... i am waiting as well.
Hahahahaha
You fuck, JSRAW...
Are you sure that you don't have a camera planted next to my computer.
(WRONG.... Fake news!!!!!! only took me 8.5 minutes to post mine after your post)
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