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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 7 (7.4%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 20 (21.3%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 23 (24.5%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 20 (21.3%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 7 (7.4%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 5 (5.3%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 1 (1.1%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (1.1%)
>$350,000 - 10 (10.6%)
Total Voters: 94

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21501734 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (138 posts by 32 users deleted.)
JSRAW
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November 25, 2019, 04:19:19 PM

Personally, I suspect that it is not easy to see s-curve adoption while in the midst of it, but jeez, just mentioning the $300 to $500 price range was about where we were bouncing around during early 2016 - right before that particular halvening.

Couldn't between a 13x ($500) and 22x ($300) price increase from our current $6,600 in 4 years serve as a kind of ballpark indication that we might possibly remain within a kind of s-curve adoption?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Even a 10 x appreciation from here would put us at an amazing figure JJG.

Yeah, but can we really count on the previous fractal pattern to play out?  I mean there could be all kinds of dickering around in order to try to camouflage the existence of s-curve adoption and what if it takes four years to get to the 10x, instead of bouncing up 30x to 50x and then coming back down to 5x-ish in 4 years which would not really rule out s-curve adoption (in my thinking)? 

Any of those would still seem to be signs of s-curve adoption because what kind of asset keeps averaging such high return rates unless it is in a kind of s-curve adoption?  Even if we cannot see with much precision that we are in the midst of s-curve adoption?  Yeah, we would like more explosiveness to really show it, but we have already had decent explosiveness, and there could be some logic that the s-curve might kind of appear to be flattening out in terms of percentages, but we still are achieving more and more adoptions and network effects and some of the indicators (beyond price) might even be more steep than the BTC price curve.

I’m prepared for all scenarios JJG, I have a nice stash but still buying every week. I can afford to wait another 4-5 years for the moon, even longer really. I’d like to see some real explosiveness in 2021 though Wink

make up your mind lfc. 4-5 years or next 1-2 years Grin
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JayJuanGee
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November 25, 2019, 04:20:38 PM


Btc price was pretty much expected to fall when it dropped bellow 8900-ish.

Do you mean after October 25 or before October 25?  Likely October 25 affected expectations, even if a lot of folks considered that to be a bit of a pump, it still took 26 days to return to its $7,300-ish starting point.

After the pump, after Oct 25.  Now we have many MA lines on the daily and weekly above us and until we don't get above them it won't be a bull.

Still seems too damned short term to really get very excited about it or to really draw much if any significance from it.

Surely at one point the extra-ordinary October 25th price rise may have appeared to be a possible direction change and to even suggest that we had been possibly getting out of our then current BTC price bottom (which was around $7,293-ish), but even the price could not really sustain itself for more than a few days, which might be kind of what you are suggesting, so I don't know how significant the whole thing ends up being, except for a temporary reprieve from our pre October 25 down inclination (as they say a kind of fake out that you don't really know what it is until quite a bit after the fact, which maybe you and I are kind of agreeing here.. or not saying anything materially different from one another).
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November 25, 2019, 04:22:46 PM

@JSRAW
I’d really like (and tbh I expect) the price to moon in 2021 or 2022. I CAN wait though, I don’t have any life plans that mean I must sell ASAP.

Hoping for $50,000 - $100,00 per BTC 12-18 months after the halving. I think it’s reasonable to expect that.
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November 25, 2019, 04:31:24 PM

Every time we dip a bit stronger than usual, most of WO is scared shitless with their "reasonable" worst-case bullshit estimates. So disappointing, especially given the size and history of the thread. Roll Eyes
I see no panic around. Do you?
Right, and stuff like "no movement till 2024 halving" is a rational opinion or assessment after such a dip? It's fear and panic disguised as staying calm. Maybe I made the mistake of assuming that the average person here is smarter than a monkey?

I doubt that Alexander_Z is exactly reflective of the average WO member, if there is such a thing.  Opinions on the WO have always been all over the place, so it is strange that sometimes posters get all sentimental attempting to suggest that this thread has some kind of coherence in bitcoin bullishness, and every cycle seems that we have to fight certain characters of trolls that are not even the same ones over time... the troll from within, sometimes exists, too.
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November 25, 2019, 04:59:38 PM

Someone woke up and started to abuse the buy button.

Yo bro, no competition. We are going to lose next month anyway Grin

Who know, who knows... anything might happen in a month.  Cheesy
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November 25, 2019, 05:03:25 PM

Bulls can boost the resistance zone from $ 7,337.78 to $ 7,702.87, the chances of a deeper fall will decrease.


Source: https://www.caneislandcrypto.com/blog
JayJuanGee
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November 25, 2019, 05:29:13 PM

Someone woke up and started to abuse the buy button.

Yo bro, no competition. We are going to lose next month anyway Grin

Who know, who knows... anything might happen in a month.  Cheesy

"Anything" within reason, no?  Seems that the odds for up are becoming a bit greater than the odds for down, but then again, I sometimes am a bit torn too when I see how much negative sentiment is out there in mainstream information circles.  That is not exactly a new thing in bitcoinlandia, but of course, there are going to be attempts at trying to keep the momentum going down while it is going down, and surely there still could be some needs to purge some of the shit coins.  To me it seems that any little bounce in bitcoin also causes a bounce in shitcoins, which is not really a healthy sign, because many of us realize that shitcoins are called shitcoins for a reason... and at the same time, we cannot really rule out that a decent number of them might come again on the next upwards bitcoin ride.

Never say never in bitcoinland, but going below $4,500 might be a place where I might convert into thoughts that we entered a bear market.

Of course, my personal strategies are not really going to change very much, but my existent buy orders only go down to about mid-$3,000s so I would surely need to start reorganizing a bit, if it appears that BTC prices might even get into the mid-$5ks.  No one should be waiting until the last minute to plan for things, even if the odds of them happening seem to be quite far off, but if we get close to mid$5ks I am going to have to take some measures to engage in some restructuring of what is left of whatever cash I have left for trading, including considering the extent to which I can garner any new monies to bring in... or would I merely go into a HODL strategy, and surely those are all considerations - because none of us really would want to NOT be able to take advantage of possible buying opportunities even if we may have a feeling that we have already exhausted most of our dry powder already even before the price even gets close to the mid-$5ks.  That kind of was the case for me in late 2018, when we kept visiting lower $6ks over and over and over, it seems that I had kind of banked on $6k being pretty damned close to the then local bottom.. which subsequently, we found out was NOT the case.. then some scrambling has to take place to attempt to take advantage of a situation that many of us reasonably had concluded was NOT likely at all to happen.. but then all of a sudden, we were there. Fuck.
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November 25, 2019, 05:58:19 PM

@100trillionUSD
Call me crazy, but it wouldn't surprise me if BTC closes 2019 at $10k+ .. opportunities like this (#bitcoin below S2F model value, 6 months before the halving) are rare.

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1198994998655672321?s=21



I also believe it.
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November 25, 2019, 06:07:53 PM

TO THE MOON!

because reasons

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November 25, 2019, 06:31:22 PM
Merited by jbreher (1)

Every time we dip a bit stronger than usual, most of WO is scared shitless with their "reasonable" worst-case bullshit estimates. So disappointing, especially given the size and history of the thread. Roll Eyes
I see no panic around. Do you?
Right, and stuff like "no movement till 2024 halving" is a rational opinion or assessment after such a dip? It's fear and panic disguised as staying calm. Maybe I made the mistake of assuming that the average person here is smarter than a monkey?

I doubt that Alexander_Z is exactly reflective of the average WO member, if there is such a thing.  Opinions on the WO have always been all over the place, so it is strange that sometimes posters get all sentimental attempting to suggest that this thread has some kind of coherence in bitcoin bullishness, and every cycle seems that we have to fight certain characters of trolls that are not even the same ones over time... the troll from within, sometimes exists, too.

Long version:

counterweight: I hodl fearlessly.  Grin
And i'm not the only one, by far. I'd say mostly anyone wearing a xHxX hat is not scared shitless, at least all the legendary WO members.
Disappointment comes from expectations, Lauda. However, anyone can judge, but that doesn't mean anyone's judgement is correct.
Text based communication on the interweb is prone to emotional misinterpretation, so everybody please keep their feelings under control.

TLDR version:
Get real  Cool
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November 25, 2019, 06:35:53 PM

$72xx, I wonder where we go next, to $6500 or $8000? I suppose wherever the whales want us to go.
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November 25, 2019, 06:43:48 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

This is post #1:





The irony when we see some posts in this thread blaming the use of TA.

 Let it go man; that attitude will age you prematurely.  This thread has morphed into a community-based, semi-autonomous chat board - the initial post has historical value only.  There's only one rule in here and I can't, for the life of me, remember it.



I enjoy the casual banter, memes, etc., but I do think we should welcome TA. The anti-TA sentiment in here is getting a little overboard.
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November 25, 2019, 06:44:44 PM

$72xx, I wonder where we go next, to $6500 or $8000? I suppose wherever the whales want us to go.

Nah, i guess they're fed now for a while. When we see another big pump, we shouldn't be surprised by a dip a few days/weeks later.
Maybe it's just some institutional investors switching to CME/BAKKT, or still correction of the $14k peak, earlier this year. We're still a good amount over the lower low of $3k of Q2.
I'd say $8000, maybe followed by a pump & dump to $6-7k again, maybe not. As soon as we get over $10k all should be fine again for everyone (excluding the people that bought the top in 2017).
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November 25, 2019, 06:51:01 PM

This is post #1:





The irony when we see some posts in this thread blaming the use of TA.

 Let it go man; that attitude will age you prematurely.  This thread has morphed into a community-based, semi-autonomous chat board - the initial post has historical value only.  There's only one rule in here and I can't, for the life of me, remember it.



I enjoy the casual banter, memes, etc., but I do think we should welcome TA. The anti-TA sentiment in here is getting a little overboard.

In the end, it's just opinions. Based on out-of-my-ass, TA, or twitter conspiracy theories. I saw many TA that played out well, also here in WO, i wouldn't take the current sentiment too serious. Everything turns around, sooner or later.
Plain old coolness might help the most, i guess.
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November 25, 2019, 06:53:48 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

Tried to feel the pain
sadly, zero fucks given
We've been here before

#haiku  Smiley

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November 25, 2019, 06:59:19 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

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November 25, 2019, 07:02:47 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)



Deader than dead. Even more dead than ever before. Not just dead but DEAD. Deeeaaaad x|

no pain, no gain, dude
keep the corn in your wallet(s)
hodl like always

#haiku
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November 25, 2019, 07:21:26 PM


Those opportunist should not be "in" in the first place.
Morally they were never "in"!
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November 25, 2019, 07:23:16 PM

China banning crypto is always a good laugh, lots of mining and patent applications.
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November 25, 2019, 07:26:51 PM

Anyone interested to answer this stupid?

But... in the crypto world, they are possible. Take for example bitcoin. People are paying thousands or even million times more for bitcoin than for some altcoins, even though these coins have the same or better utility than bitcoin. Meaning, the same as bitcoin these coins can be transferred easily, fastly, cheaply, safely and transparently to someone. Such coins can be bought for as low as $0.001. Why people in the crypto world pay millions time more for the same thing? Why they behave so irrationally?

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