Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

[JSRAW]

13x difference

Yeah, but would 13x really be fair or representative?

the movement from the 1st to the 2nd was nearly 51x, so wouldn't it be more reasonable to project that the number is getting smaller?  That is part of the reason why I considered your 7x to 10x range to have been reasonable when looking at a 4 year trajectory.. and maybe that is even too pie in the sky, but it still could serve as a potential trajectory that would seem to be more reasonable than 13x.

Agreed, not fair if we look at complete cycle. let's say i am being stupidly optimistic in my speculation by looking at last 2 halving only and you are playing your party pooper role. 

and maybe it has less than a 10% chance of happening.  I do personally believe that it is greater than 1%, otherwise I would not even be talking about it with any level of seriousness.

I can make my peace with that.

Don't panic attack ur lil selfie.

Part of the reason to prepare for a variety of scenarios is to help the possibility that you are going to end up panicking.

I have told my story many times

Will try not to and i suggest you the same because you never know. 

I read fair amount of your stories, not all.

Jupiter9?  Is that you?

Don't tell me you are going to go down the superstition road, from here on?   

Like i always say, can neither confirm nor deny..

But No sir

Will celebrate the victory when we cross the finish line.

Is there a finish line?  Are you planning on selling all your BTC at some point? 

The way i see it every target has its finish line. but its not a End per se... my initial goal is to sell some % at $50-80k range. But If we touch 1 million per coin soon, then yeah i will.

Till then i am keeping my head down and stacking Sats.

You can hardly go wrong with that strategy during our current times because we have NOT quite reached "face-melting" ^{tm - (attributed to Hyperjacked)} BTC price movements

Yeah, repeating this simple mantra for quite some time now. but i might need some planning once we cross $15k-20k mark because my bigger share of salary comes in BTC so obviously i can't afford volatility at that stage.

[Ibian]

Us boomers got to stick together.

I never liked the term "boomer" as if everyone born between 1945 and 1963 was a member of the same cohort just because they were all products of the postwar economic boom. Yeah, our parents may have all decided to have a zillion kids at the same time (after the Great Depression and WW2 could you blame them?) but really it was 2 distinct groups:
_____

I was a member of the first group, those born in the 1940s and very early 1950s. When I was a kid we still had horse-drawn daily delivery wagons in the city, bringing us our milk, bread, ice, and coal. More people still had iceboxes than refrigerators and more people shoveled coal into their furnaces than had thermostatically-controlled gas or oil. A wringer washing machine was a modern labor-saving device. Many people still used washboards. Public transit was mostly streetcars.

We had no running hot water. On bath night my father would light a gas water heater to warm our bathwater. When my mother did dishes or laundry, she heated water in a big kettle on the kitchen stove. She dissolved ends of bar soap in the dish pan with a metal cage thingy with a handle because they didn't sell liquid dish soap yet.

After dinner, we'd sit around the floor-model vacuum tube radio (no permanent-magnet speakers: a speaker had a voice coil and a field coil) and listen to radio shows like Amos and Andy or The Lone Ranger. Phonograph records were 78 RPM and made of shellac. Most people who had record players had wind-up acoustic phonographs. My father was a classical music collector so he had a electric turntable with a piezoelectric cartridge that you mounted metal needles into with a thumbscrew. It connected to the radio. When the first TV arrived on our block it was quite the novelty. All the neighbors came around to look at the tiny round screen reflected in a mirror because the CRT was mounted vertically. Music was still mostly crooners and big bands.

We bought our meat at a butcher shop, our produce from a greengrocer, and what baked goods that weren't homemade came from a bakery. Cheese was cut and weighed by the piece, also by the butcher.
_____

By the mid-1950s everything seemed to change. Everybody had a fridge, hot water, an automatic washing machine (and dryer) and a thermostat. All the horses and many of the streetcars were replaced by internal combustion engines. Supermarkets replaced specialized food shops. Foods were pre-wrapped and packaged.

Television ruled. Radios were relegated to music and to a small degree, talk. TV commercials effected how people shopped, ate, clothed themselves and went about their daily lives. The propaganda was relentless. McCarthyism gave us a new enemy to hate and fear. It wasn't the Gerrys and Japs anymore. It was the Commies.

As the decade went on, transistors started replacing vacuum tubes and vinyl replaced shellac. Rock&roll replaced swing and new attitudes arose. It was OK to have fun and be sexy again, just like during the roaring '20s before the Depression and the war made everybody miserable and security-conscious.

Anyone who wanted a job could get one and everyone seemed to have lots of money. A guy with an average job could afford to own a home, a cottage, a stay-at-home wife, 3 or 4 kids, a new car every 3 years, and still be able to save enough to send his kids to college.

The "boomers" born in these times were a completely different cohort from the "boomers" of the 1940s.
_____

Modern generational divisions are usually based on technological or social differences. GenXers are those who came after the cultural upheaval of the early 1960s with the Kennedy assassination and the emergence of the counterculture. The Millennials are defined by growing up with the internet. GenZ by life-long internet access and post 9/11 oppression. Gen Alpha by social media.

The early and late Boomers, however, get lumped together despite major societal and technological changes in the 1950s simply because of their numbers, which has more to do with their parents than them.

What all the generations of boomers have in common, however many classifications you wish to make, is that you voted in the welfare state. It was already in place by the time I was born and it has just kept growing. I did not get a say in the state taking 80-90% of my income.

You sent women out to work, which reduced the value of labor and now two people were required to work to earn the income of one. Kids got less time with their parents which we now know damages them psychologically. This bred weakness in the following generations, and this is why states are now forcing people to stay indoors, confined as if prisoners in their own country, and why people tolerate it.

This and more is why nobody likes or respects boomers. This is why the ok boomer meme even exists.

To be fair, I blame your failures and flaws on the generation that came before you, on your parents. My dad is a boomer and I knew my grandpa. He did not teach my father about war, about the fact that peace is a temporary thing. He never talked about it. He should have, that entire generation should have. But your decisions are still yours. Kids get to say they didn't know. Adults only get to say that they chose to be ignorant of how the world works.

[Ibian]

I think a hurricane would be a big hit to the cruise industry. During this downtime a lot of them are docked in the Bahamas and Cayman. Many are sitting in one place in the open sea.

With a hurricane they will need a crew to move the ship. They will need to spend money on staying out of the hurricane's path while they have no money coming in.

The cruise industry is toast. They are doing all they can to keep afloat (pun intended). Letting people purchase cruises 3 years ahead of time, allowing people to cancel within 48 hours of their trip to reschedule (cheap cabins about to open up if you can do a last minute cruise).

Then there's the air industry. They're talking about taking out middle seats so they can put spacers in, cutting back flights to 20%...prices are going to skyrocket.

Tourism will take a huge hit.

If it means I don't have to sit squished between two other people for hours and sometimes a full day then I don't mind paying double for plane tickets. Luxury has always had a pricetag.

[JSRAW]

I did not get a say in the state taking 80-90% of my income.

You go girl....
I even encourage you to sue your parents as you didn't get to say anything if you wanted to born or not at the first place...  

[Cryptotourist]

I did not get a say in the state taking 80-90% of my income.

You go girl....
I even encourage you to sue your parents as you didn't get to say anything if you wanted to born or not at the first place...  

Nah,

[Ibian]

I did not get a say in the state taking 80-90% of my income.

You go girl....
I even encourage you to sue your parents as you didn't get to say anything if you wanted to born or not at the first place...  

My folks have done what they can. There are simply things that people don't know, and some things that individuals are not able to understand based on their personal psychology. But they have done enough. Besides if I objected to my existence there are ways out of that.

[JayJuanGee]

Don't panic attack ur lil selfie.

Part of the reason to prepare for a variety of scenarios is to help the possibility that you are [NOT] (added in bolded part) going to end up panicking.

Will try not to and i suggest you the same because you never know.  

My planned method in my preparations for a possible BTC exponential growth period are a little bit different this time (if it happens) than they were last time, but I do believe that I have some advantages over you, JSRAW, is because I have gone through a full cycle, and I believe that I have another advantage over you in terms of starting out with a greater investment amount... but sure, I am not trying to assert that I am better than you or trying to compete, because if someone becomes rich, then they would probably prefer to be younger than about to die.. so you probably have a decent amount of advantages over me in terms of age, and you also have certain amount of advantages over me in having investment opportunities that I believe that I did not have before bitcoin... I mean there are some seeming great investment opportunity advantages in bitcoin, at least from my thinking... but still it takes discipline to figure out a personally tailored path in regards to any investment whether bitcoin or other investment options.

In terms of planning, I am not suggesting that you do something that I am not planning to do myself, but I am also NOT asserting that I am NOT going to fail.. I am planning in order that I can hopefully lessen the odds that I will fail.. You know the expression... "failing to plan is planning to fail," and I am trying to make some personal progress, while trying to NOT acknowledge and accept that we all have various weaknesses, including yours truly.

Till then i am keeping my head down and stacking Sats.

You can hardly go wrong with that strategy during our current times because we have NOT quite reached "face-melting" ^{tm - (attributed to Hyperjacked)} BTC price movements

Yeah, repeating this simple mantra for quite some time now. but i might need some planning once we cross $15k-20k mark because my bigger share of salary comes in BTC so obviously i can't afford volatility at that stage.

The variables likely ONLY change a bit when you earn money in BTC rather than earning in fiat.  Expenses and preparations still need to account for the likelihood that your expenses are likely being calculated in terms of fiat, and probably, I will venture to guess, the amount that you are paid in BTC is likely calculated in terms of its fiat value (you can correct me if I am wrong with my guess).

Frequently, someone who is paid in BTC is going to be selling on a regular basis and sometimes even forced to sell at times that s/he does not want to, and probably there are some ways to attempt to give yourself enough of a cushion in order to cause yourself more latitude in the when to sell matter than what you would have if you did not plan sufficiently, which is largely a matter of attempting to project out your cashflow needs far enough into the future and attempting to account for possible emergencies and things like that, too.

[bitebits]

We know mr. Musk, we know..

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1260473394790838274

[serveria.com]

I wonder how the WO looks like in 2021 - 2024 range.

I guess we'll have to move to Instagram to share our lambos/hot models/villas/100k party pics... 

[serveria.com]

If they print tether out of thin air and don't actually have the USD reserves, wouldn't that be just like printing USD out of thin air?

If tether is outed as a scam, wouldn't peopl just sell as much tether as they could for BTC? How would that make BTC dump?

"Tether is a scam so I'm going to sell Bitcoins for tether.." I don't think so..

If a scam came out wouldn't people just be dumping tether for BTC, WDing, and running away with whatever they could?

I don't see how this printing of tether is a bad thing for BTC..

They are just printing more buy orders for BTC, and if it turns out to be a scam, Wouldn't it all just get dumped for BTC?

How does a scam in tether hurt BTC? Wouldn't it just reinforce the fact that Bitcoin is scure, and other shitcoins like centralized tether are not secure or safe compared to Bitcoin?

How is it that everyone has already forgotten that Tether (OK, the company behind it) has already admitted that their claim of 100% USD backing is a lie?

eta: Reading further, I see that Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Nobody gives a damn about tether... 

[Globb0]

Very interesting tweet from @loop based on @coinmetrics

The amount of BTC held by BitMEX and Bitfinex has reached new lows following the March 12th crash. Bitfinex now holds 93.8K BTC, down from 193.9k on March 13th. BitMEX’s BTC supply is now down to 216.0K BTC, down from a peak of 315.7K on March 13th. H/T @coinmetrics

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1260189246511513601?s=21

The mid March market crash scared the traders, not the holders. He who wanted to gamble their funds, kept them on hot wallet on the exchanges (those are the traders). They lost their funds towards the holders. The holders, being savvy and knowing that “not your keys, not your bitcoin”, withdrew their funds from the exchanges.

How do you extrapolate all of that from that graph? some go up some go down average seems about straight. Maybe they moved exchanges, maybe an exchange decided to run down its money. Seems like complex equivalence to blame some saying, or sudden change in trader mentality.

[El duderino_]

[Globb0]

Tether is the weakest link and a prime target, so it's not a matter of if Tether will go down but a matter of when...

Let me, for a second, go along with your presumption that bitcoin is vulnerable to losing value because tether is propping up its price too much by causing more liquidity than what would otherwise be present.
 That is a pretty BIG presumption.. but let's just accept such presumption as a given.

Then...

What if Tether goes down in 50 years?  Why the fuck should we care?

Let's make it a shorter period of time.  What if it goes down in 10 years?  That is still pretty far into the future too.

No, no, no... you are presuming Tethers impeding death... because regulators have been going after it for years and years... therefore, it must be impending to die sooner than 50 years, right?

It could go any minute, right?

That's what she said.

Tether goes down? surely people will be scrambling to get out of it? where could they move to?

Can you tether to usd ? I thought that was the point, the places didn't have USD?

[Globb0]

this just in

Proudhon cures Covid!

https://www.sciencealert.com/llama-blood-could-play-a-role-in-helping-people-fight-off-coronavirus-infections

[soullyG]

too... many... pages....

must... keep... going...

I took a 6 month break once, when I came back it literally took 3 days to catch up on all the messages..never again..

[marcus_of_augustus]

Covid-19 A Result of Lab Manipulation? Suspicions Grow...

Those doing gain of function research "prior" on these virus that were shipped to Wuhan are by law, complicit in murder, mass murder in over 100 countries.
It should surprise no one that those whose names are on those research papers, especially from gain of function research, and coordination with Wuhan are doing everything they are able to prevent Hague hearings.
Those who funded, transported, researched, supplied, and managed all the above know the precedent set after WWII. They ALL hung with the butchers.
Propaganda ministers and writers were right beside them ... media writers, TV reporters, managers, producers, internet execs deleting real info and putting out disinformation need remember that.

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/american-scientist-murdered-in-crete-suffered-a-slow-death-forensic-pathologists-say/

American scientist murdered in Crete suffered a slow death, forensic pathologists say
We're getting a closer look at the site in Greece where an American scientist was found dead. Greek police tell CBS News they are conducting DNA tests on several people in connection with the murder of Suzanne Eaton.

[ivomm]

Tether, i.e. Bitfinex was the main driving force of the bull run in 2017 until Q4. Let's not forget that the most important run from $800 to $2900 was caused by the inability to withdraw fiat in Bitfinex. People were buying bitcoins and tranferring them to other exchanges. On the day the withdrawals were permitted again, the price fell by 40%. However, since Q4 2017 Bitfinex gradually lost its leading role. Now the daily volume is 2.5x less than Bitstamp's. All of the recent pumps/dumps did not start on Bitfinex. A curious thing though is that the order books of Bitfinex are much fatter than on Bitstamp. For example 1500BTC are put up to 10K in Bitstamp, compared to 4000BTC on Bitfinex. This thing hasn't changed since 2017. It shows the difference of the traders culture. Nowadays, there are many n00b traders on Bitstamp and especially Coinbase, who do not put limit sells. They just press the sell button if there is 1-2% increase, which often results in actual selling 5-10% below the current price, because of the overload of the exchange when multiple market sells are executed at once. There are millions chinese still solving captchas for cents and at the same time trading on exchanges. They jump to the ceiling if they can manage to get 1$ profit per day.

[Indymoney]

I wonder how the WO looks like in 2021 - 2024 range.

I guess we'll have to move to Instagram to share our lambos/hot models/villas/100k party pics... 

I like this idea so now time to move

[Last of the V8s]

ahahahahah

the Crete police dismisseth us