Whats next...?? With in 2 year
8572 * 7x = $60,004
8572 * 10x= $85,720
Or Biiiiiggg rally?
Well, if you are looking at the BTC price at the time of the halvening, then the BTC price at the time of the next halvening, could be interesting... and that could reasonably end up landing somewhere in the 7x to 10x arena as you indicated, and seems really difficult to know where the BTC price might land in 4 years, and where it might land in 2 years or within the peak of the next price run (if we get one) is another question.
Yeah, Halving closed price range is landmark..
Hard to tell where it might land in next 4 years but if we look at last 2 halving closing price range, then it could give us some roadplan for speculation
2nd halving ($658)
3rd halving ($8572)
13x difference, so if we take this as a benchmark or speculate from here then it put us around $111,436 by the end of the 4th halving.
Yeah, but would 13x really be fair or representative?
the movement from the 1st to the 2nd was nearly 51x, so wouldn't it be more reasonable to project that the number is getting smaller? That is part of the reason why I considered your 7x to 10x range to have been reasonable when looking at a 4 year trajectory.. and maybe that is even too pie in the sky, but it still could serve as a potential trajectory that would seem to be more reasonable than 13x.
Seems to me that the range in which BTC prices might peak in two years or less (perhaps 18 months) would likely have a much broader range of possibilities that are greater than 7x to 10x.
So if we remember the BTC price from the 2016 halvening (yeah its in your charts as mid $600s), then calculating from that jumping off point to the next high of about $19,666 in December 2017 (about 18 months later), we got about a 30x price increase.
Holy cow 30x.. Everyone would like to see that happening. BTW do you really think that there is big possibility of another parabolic run similar to last one in short period of time? I can live with that if there is even 1% chance.
Of course, if we put together all of the various possible outcomes and we plot them out, I think that they would come out on a bell curve, so the more extreme of the predictions would be a lot less likely to happen, but they still have some likelihood of happening.
So, yeah, if we are starting with the halvening price as our base, then 30x would be one of the possible plotting out points on the graph, and maybe it has less than a 10% chance of happening. I do personally believe that it is greater than 1%, otherwise I would not even be talking about it with any level of seriousness.
Probably, though, even for the peak, something less than 30x would be more reasonable, just like many of us were planning 3x to 5x from the previous 2013 ATH of $1,163 in order to arrive at our most bullish scenarios of $3k to $5k for the 2017 bullrun; however, we witnessed the 2017 bullrun going 4x to 5x higher than our most bullish projections.... and sure, many of us did not consider 20k to be impossible, otherwise we would have sold all of our BTC a lot sooner, and I held on to the vast majority of mine (87%-88%, I believe).
So, surely, I believe that it is better to go a bit more conservative, even with whatever we might be considering to be a reasonable projection of another blow-off top, if it were to occur. So instead of 30x, then maybe we would choose half of that or maybe more reasonably 40% of that, which would be 12x (30 * 40% = 12).. so that still puts us around $100k ($8,752 * 12), and maybe even we might say 3x to 5x from the previous ATH.. which puts us somewhere between $60k and $100k).
A lot of these variations on projections are far from certain, and part of the reason why we see a lot of great ideas posted in threads in regards to possible scenarios, and many of them are within ranges of reasonableness and are not really pie in the sky, either, even if they might not end up playing out as rosey as we would like.
We are in trying times, too, in terms of our macros and the ongoing compromised status our current supply chains, including future supply chains, so even projecting more conservative price targets could be in order and even reasonable.
Somewhere between a 4% to 6% per year rate might be what traditional asset assessments might be willing to project, and maybe even a lot of traditional asset analysts are nervous about whether they are going to be able to get traditional returns... so let's just go with a 5% per year projection (is that too bullish?)
2020 = $8,752
2021 = $9,189.60
2022 = $9,649.08
2023 = $10,131.53
2024 = $10,638.11
Yeah.. that 5% price appreciation per year on average does not look too great, but it still ends up in a BTC price that is greater value than today for each of the subsequent years, and personally, I believe that when we are plotting out various possibilities it is good to account for a variety of possible outcomes, even the negative possibilities... but we don't need to discuss those negative plots, here (even though they should exist in your repertoire of planning).
Let's hope that we do not get a 30x BTC price increase from this 2020 halvening in around 18 months because we would all be too stressed out by going up that greatly, correct?
$8,572 x 30 = $257,160 . Those levels of BTC prices would be tough to deal with, right JSRAW?
That is why you had proposed a 7x to 10x BTC price increase range in order that we will feel MOAR better, and not become tooooooo cittttteeeeee? you are saving us from ourselves? right JSRAW?
Perhaps, Some of us might get panic attack if its happens..
Don't panic-attack ur lil selfie.
Part of the reason to prepare for a variety of scenarios is to help the possibility that you are NOT going to end up panicking.
I have told my story many times, and maybe some recall that I said this before.. but let me repeat that in about mid-2015, I had gone through quite a few preparation scenarios in my head (and of course on paper, using excel spreadsheets, and I may have even posted some of my then ideas), but anyhow, my plan was to continue to skim off a certain amount of BTC profits with the rising of BTC prices, and sure when I made my initial plans, the BTC price was bouncing around $250, so the projections out to $5k seemed kind of pie in the sky, and so yeah, I was feeling pretty good through 2016 and early 2017 as the various price marks were getting surpassed, so I think that sometime in early 2017, when the BTC price had already gone to $2k-ish. I looked at the amount of fiat that I was generating with my incremental sales, and I felt that I was generating way more fiat than necessary, so I felt that I needed to reconsider some of my BTC sales trajectory, which largely reduced the amount of BTC that I authorized myself to sell at each price point, including getting to $19,666 and still having about 88% of my BTC compared to fiat value, even though my earlier trajectories would have caused me to sell much more BTC, but I was happy with my reconsideration and my reduction of my BTC sales. Of course, after the fact, I could criticize my approach for NOT selling enough.. but I am not going to do that because I am an adult, and I had already decided what I was going to do before it happened, and I largely followed my plan which causes me to feel good about following my plan and even understanding the risks without regretting my choices.
But i just don't want to jinx anything even in speculation
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Jupiter9? Is that you?
Don't tell me you are going to go down the superstition road, from here on?
Will celebrate the victory when we cross the finish line.
Is there a finish line? Are you planning on selling all your BTC at some point? Isn't this whole BTC matter a kind of proportion, and if BTC prices reach certain points, then we are going to choose whether or not to reallocate, and if we do choose to reallocate, then how much are we going to reallocate? What is reasonable and prudent for our own situation?
Of course, we then have to account for factors that go beyond just the BTC price, such as our various personal circumstances, including our cashflow, other investments, views about bitcoin compared with other assets, risk tolerance, timeline, and our time, skills and abilities to manage and tweak our holdings, including whether to trade.
Till then i am keeping my head down and stacking Sats.
You can hardly go wrong with that strategy during our current times because we have NOT quite reached "face-melting"
tm - (attributed to Hyperjacked) BTC price movements
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