Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

If you omit the "covid glitch", it did "sideways" (swinging between $9k and $10k) pretty well in the recent past.

Whether covid is real or not, we cannot be going around "omitting" what actually happened in bitcoinlandia.

 

In other words, whether some event explains what happened in bitcoin price movement or not, it still serves a purpose, even if it were fake.... and let's say, for example, the bitmex exchange had to shut down its trades on March 12 because overleveraged trades were going to bring bitcoin to zero or close to zero, so yes, bitcoin prices could have gone to zero on March 12 had bitmex not shut off their exchange, and perhaps the recovery would have been more violent.. or perhaps the BTC price might have got caught in the sub $1k territory for a week or more.  But, fact of the matter is that none of that happened.. bitcoin did not go to zero and bitcoin did not even go below $3k.

Instead, as we know, bitcoin went to $3,850, which was largely a 50% price correction within one day that largely recovered itself within a couple of weeks - while having some lingering staying down effects and even some doubts about whether the BTC price recovery would continue or revert back to testing $3,850 or some other price that was lower than the subsequent recovery point.

And, sure such outrageousness served a purpose to relieve some folks of their coins (sorry mindrust), and to cause some people (perhaps weak hands) to continue to doubt whether they should keep some of their value in BTC... or to buy with the value that they have, and they say: "I am going to wait and buy cheaper coins.. so instead of using my $1,000 to buy .103 BTC (at $9,700), or .133 BTC (at $7,500),  .222 BTC (at $4,500), I am going to wait to  buy .4 BTC at $2,500 because it appears that Masterluc might be right...". blah blah blah..   and so bears might want to test out the weak hands again, or maybe the bears realize that they are only given such opportunities based on a confluence of events.. that might not play out again in such a perfect storm...   Even the bears might start to wonder whether they can they replicate the storm and if they have shaken out as many weak hands as they can?  or not?  

Can we just ignore what happened on March 12....? NO, we cannot!!!!!   Can we omit certain parts of bitcoin's price movements, and try to analyze what is going on in bitcoin as if our omitted parts were an aberration?  NO, we cannot!!!!!  

If we omit parts, then we are in fantasy land, and in essence, we have to account for what actually happened,  the good, the bad, the ugly.. and the aberrations.. even if we believe that the aberrations had accomplished nothing or they were not representative of king daddy...

Of course, I am not suggesting that many of us are not going to profit from being able to recognize the difference between signal and noise, and of course, many of us were not shaken from our coins during the $3,850 dump, and many of us picked up a few more coins during such dumpening.  

[jojo69]

what is the update on the difficulty adjustment?

[SeaBits]

what is the update on the difficulty adjustment?

According to: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   630971  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9494%  (1980 / 2107.52 expected, 127.52 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16104807485529.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15132455028583 and 15132746375132
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.0377% and -6.0358%
Previous Retarget:   May 4, 2020 at 9:02 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:40 PM  (in 0d 6h 22m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:40 PM  (in 0d 6h 23m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 37m 56s and 14d 21h 38m 21s

[Biodom]

what is the update on the difficulty adjustment?

According to: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   630971  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9494%  (1980 / 2107.52 expected, 127.52 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16104807485529.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15132455028583 and 15132746375132
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.0377% and -6.0358%
Previous Retarget:   May 4, 2020 at 9:02 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:40 PM  (in 0d 6h 22m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:40 PM  (in 0d 6h 23m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 37m 56s and 14d 21h 38m 21s

-6% in diff, 20-30% of the reward in fees, basically only 15%-20% lower earnings than before the halving (in btc) and, considering that prices were in the 8000 range a couple of weeks ago and close to 10K now, miner earnings are essentially the same (in $$).

[machasm]

what is the update on the difficulty adjustment?

According to: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   630971  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9494%  (1980 / 2107.52 expected, 127.52 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16104807485529.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15132455028583 and 15132746375132
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.0377% and -6.0358%
Previous Retarget:   May 4, 2020 at 9:02 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:40 PM  (in 0d 6h 22m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:40 PM  (in 0d 6h 23m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 37m 56s and 14d 21h 38m 21s

-6% in diff, 20-30% of the reward in fees, basically only 15%-20% lower earnings than before the halving (in btc) and, considering that prices were in the 8000 range a couple of weeks ago and close to 10K now, miner earnings are essentially the same (in $$).

I expect the fees to drop though as we begin to eat through the backlog.

[Icygreen]

Dang, mempool getting hot.  They're paying 160sats/byte no problem.

[Indymoney]

@BTC_Macro
88% of all Bitcoins have already been mined.

Soon, the public will realize that most of us have no interest in selling.

Billions of people will fight over a small percentage of $BTC.

The end game? Price will moon and only millionaires will be able to afford 1 full Bitcoin.
https://twitter.com/btc_macro/status/1262757933193945088?s=21



Soon........

So I have good chance in my life to be millionaire because its my wish I want to dead with this batch

[soullyG]

Here's the zoom-out version:

Tick tock, tick tock



2015-2017 for reference (guess what happened after this):

[Last of the V8s]

[rdbase]

Dang, mempool getting hot.  They're paying 160sats/byte no problem.

According to https://bitcoinfees.earn.com its:
"Miners prioritize transactions with the highest fee per byte. Generally, pay a highest fee and your transaction should be confirmed within the next block, which will take an average of 5 to 15 minutes. Pay lower fees and your transaction should be confirmed within the next three blocks, which will generally take between 30 minutes to 1 hour.
The fastest and cheapest fee is currently 232 satoshi/byte, or 237,568 satoshi/kb (bytes * 1024) and average transaction size is 300 bytes. Please note, we send earnings payouts at normal speeds of 232 satoshi/kb and we will reject payout requests over 300 satoshi/kb. If this happens, please try a smaller amount. For more details at earn.com (coinbiase )
Dynamic stats of these required fees to see your btc within a reasonable timeframe and noticed their fees at current preev rate:

[xhomerx10]

 I swear to god that any information or images shared with me by others has always and will remain confidential.  Due to the similarity of this cartoon with information presented to me by another on this forum, I feel compelled to issue this proclamation.  Dammit V8 - stop reading my mind!!  Sorry, I can't explain further.


   

[Toxic2040]

 I swear to god that any information or images shared with me by others has always and will remain confidential.  Due to the similarity of this cartoon with information presented to me by another on this forum, I feel compelled to issue this proclamation.  Dammit V8 - stop reading my mind!!  Sorry, I can't explain further.


   

He does that.



https://getpocket.com/explore/item/daryl-bem-proved-esp-is-real?utm_source=pocket-newtab

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daryl_Bem

[JayJuanGee]

@BTC_Macro
88% of all Bitcoins have already been mined.

Soon, the public will realize that most of us have no interest in selling.

Billions of people will fight over a small percentage of $BTC.

The end game? Price will moon and only millionaires will be able to afford 1 full Bitcoin.
https://twitter.com/btc_macro/status/1262757933193945088?s=21



Soon........

So I have good chance in my life to be millionaire because its my wish I want to dead with this batch

Like you, Indymoney, I find myself a little bit confused by such a statement from btc_macro because I would not presume that very many people would be very prudent to put all of their wealth into bitcoin, so presuming that a millionnaire is someone who has a million dollars worth of net wealth, then likely only a portion of that value would be contained in quasi-liquid investments. 

I am not sure if we can remove the value of the home from the assessment of what is a millionnaire, because many persons who are assessed to be millionnaires would have a decent amount of their wealth in their personal home and affiliated real estate property.... but there likely could be some formula to consider the home and personal property as quasi-liquid value, even if we understand that real estate and homes do not tend to be very liquid.

Personally, I recommend that all people who have at least a 4-year timeline for their investment (meaning that they anticipate that they are not likely to need the money in at least 4 years - no impending death or anything like that), invest 1% to 10% of their quasi-liquid value into bitcoin.  Of course, there are some people who would be willing to be way more aggressive than my recommendation, especially if bitcoin starts to catch on, as seems to be a presumption of a possible outcome that is in the btc_macro proposition in the tweet.

So, for me, if I think of someone who has an investible portfolio of $1million, then the more aggressive stance would be to have 10% of that value in bitcoin, and therefore to own a whole bitcoin then BTC would have to be $100k or less per BTC for a person of that investment stature to be exercising reasonable prudence within my investment framework.

Currently, someone with a $1million investable portfolio could easily and prudently acquire around 10.3BTC, if choosing to put 10% of that portfolio into BTC.  For sure, I accept that there are quite a few variants for how people thinking about what is prudent investing, and currently we have a situation in which NOT too many investors, whether millionnaires or not, or even institutions, are failing/refusing to put even 1% of their quasi-liquid investment capital into bitcoin, so I would imagine that in the future, there will be more interest from a lot of folks to at least get off zero and at least get to 1% which most likely mean that they would not be able to own a whole bitcoin because they are currently NOT sufficiently enlightened to see what is likely to happen with bitcoin's price in the coming 5-10 years (and likely sooner than that).

[Biodom]

 I swear to god that any information or images shared with me by others has always and will remain confidential.  Due to the similarity of this cartoon with information presented to me by another on this forum, I feel compelled to issue this proclamation.  Dammit V8 - stop reading my mind!!  Sorry, I can't explain further.


  

He does that.



https://getpocket.com/explore/item/daryl-bem-proved-esp-is-real?utm_source=pocket-newtab

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daryl_Bem

Ha, I just read it today.
Conclusion: everything (in sciences that are not exactly natural) is bs, UNLESS you wrote out an exact protocol before you started the experiments and never deviated from such protocol.
A sidenote: I personally believe that there is some validity in ESP, don't know how to explain it from a scientific view point, let's leave it at that.

[Ibian]

@BTC_Macro
88% of all Bitcoins have already been mined.

Soon, the public will realize that most of us have no interest in selling.

Billions of people will fight over a small percentage of $BTC.

The end game? Price will moon and only millionaires will be able to afford 1 full Bitcoin.
https://twitter.com/btc_macro/status/1262757933193945088?s=21



Soon........

More millionaires than bitcoins. Especially available bitcoins. Things will eventually get interesting.

[Biodom]

@BTC_Macro
88% of all Bitcoins have already been mined.

Soon, the public will realize that most of us have no interest in selling.

Billions of people will fight over a small percentage of $BTC.

The end game? Price will moon and only millionaires will be able to afford 1 full Bitcoin.
https://twitter.com/btc_macro/status/1262757933193945088?s=21



Soon........

well, more like soonish, not soon, really.
Apart from buying 1 full btc for less than 10K, one can also buy a few miners (10 S17 60th/s are about 1btc shipped without adding taxes, which are 27.6% in US, lower everywhere else).
600 th/s makes at currently difficulty 1.7 btc/year, so maybe you would make around 1.3 btc if difficulty would start rising. Makes sense to do only if you have almostfree electricity AND you simply want to average OR a steady cash flow. Upside-fees, which could give you up to 30% more.

[JayJuanGee]

@BTC_Macro
88% of all Bitcoins have already been mined.

Soon, the public will realize that most of us have no interest in selling.

Billions of people will fight over a small percentage of $BTC.

The end game? Price will moon and only millionaires will be able to afford 1 full Bitcoin.
https://twitter.com/btc_macro/status/1262757933193945088?s=21



Soon........

More millionaires than bitcoins. Especially available bitcoins. Things will eventually get interesting.

Hopefully, eventually does not take a long time, because "eventually" we are all going to be dead, too.    

[jbreher]

Bitcoin tx fees are spiking... hopefully the miners aren't trying to artificially lift the fees again.

Riddle me this: in a free market, how does one 'artificially lift the fees'? One does not. One cannot. The condition of rising fees is a natural and completely predictable consequence of implementing a centrally-managed quota on the production of block space.

We really need more competition in Bitcoin mining.

What's stopping you?

Current recommended fee - 158 sat/byte
It’s butthurt miners absolutely fuming at the block reward halving so they’re prioritising high fee transactions to try & make some money back. People are paying higher & higher fees to try & get a quick confirmation.

Serious question: Do you expect the miners to _not_ prioritize the more profitable txs? Do you expect them to have made these multi-million-dollar investments just out of altruism?

Perhaps some ponderation upon Satoshi's greatest innovation -- of aligning economic incentive with processing txs -- might be in order.

[jbreher]

Pretty much everyone knows about bitcoin,

Pretty much everyone has heard of Bitcoin. That's a rather different thing. Doesn't help that 85% of what they 'know' about Bitcoin is utter bollocks.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin tx fees are spiking... hopefully the miners aren't trying to artificially lift the fees again.

Riddle me this: in a free market, how does one 'artificially lift the fees'? One does not. One cannot. The condition of rising fees is a natural and completely predictable consequence of implementing a centrally-managed quota on the production of block space.

We really need more competition in Bitcoin mining.

What's stopping you?

Current recommended fee - 158 sat/byte
It’s butthurt miners absolutely fuming at the block reward halving so they’re prioritising high fee transactions to try & make some money back. People are paying higher & higher fees to try & get a quick confirmation.

Serious question: Do you expect the miners to _not_ prioritize the more profitable txs? Do you expect them to have made these multi-million-dollar investments just out of altruism?

Perhaps some ponderation upon Satoshi's greatest innovation -- of aligning economic incentive with processing txs -- might be in order.

Good thing that we have two versions of bcash (I mean scam coins) to help us to recognize that there might be a better way.    


Maybe I am almost rolling off my chair with laughter while considering your deeper point, jbreher...

 

Pretty much everyone knows about bitcoin,

Pretty much everyone has heard of Bitcoin. That's a rather different thing. Doesn't help that 85% of what they 'know' about Bitcoin is utter bollocks.

Let's get Craig Wright to teach them.....