Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Acid is a young persons game. After you get the message, hang up the phone.

I can't agree with you there Jimbo. I'm far from young and still use it. I find that the message changes over time. You could say it gives you the message you need to hear at the time.

Once you understand the universe you really don't need any more knowledge.

You haven't gotten the full picture yet.

[strawbs]

Acid is a young persons game. After you get the message, hang up the phone.

I can't agree with you there Jimbo. I'm far from young and still use it. I find that the message changes over time. You could say it gives you the message you need to hear at the time.

Once you understand the universe you really don't need any more knowledge.

You haven't gotten the full picture yet.

Oh, I understand the universe as well as anyone can. Lots of help from meditation and psychedelics in that regard. However, I'm far from being able to claim omniscience. Anyone who claims to have the full picture most definitely does not have the full picture.

[Arriemoller]

Ibian, be nice.
You can't blame every individual of a whole (artificial) group for that groups collective actions.
And I also think that the boomers of Scandinavia started raising taxes before the boomers of north America. Besides, being born in 1961 and thus a boomer I must say that I was born in to a system already in place. I never voted for higher taxes, I always voted for lower taxes.
And I don't like the runaway welfare state we have in Scandinavia, and never has.

I never claimed to be nice.

I know, that's why I'm urging you to be nice.
I know I can be hard sometimes when it comes to politics, but that's never personal. I would not have any trouble having a beer with any of my political opponents after a hard debate. But then again, I used to be involved in local politics and am used to that, some people in here might not. (looks at Hairy and smiles).

There's a Swedish saying, "It costs nothing to be polite, but it pays of well". (In a somewhat loose translation).

Are you going to urge the boomers to be nice or not? Let's just get that cleared up.

No, I think the boomers in here are pretty nice already.

[Biodom]

If you did not drive one of your cars lately-you may be in for a surprise....

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2020/06/09/rats-rodents-nest-parked-cars-coronavirus/3156961001/

[Hueristic]

Acid is a young persons game. After you get the message, hang up the phone.

I can't agree with you there Jimbo. I'm far from young and still use it. I find that the message changes over time. You could say it gives you the message you need to hear at the time.

Once you understand the universe you really don't need any more knowledge.

You haven't gotten the full picture yet.

Oh, I understand the universe as well as anyone can. Lots of help from meditation and psychedelics in that regard. However, I'm far from being able to claim omniscience. Anyone who claims to have the full picture most definitely does not have the full picture.

Understanding how is not really the important part, understanding why is and if you understand that then feel free to share.

[Toxic2040]

1h

[Ibian]

Ibian, be nice.
You can't blame every individual of a whole (artificial) group for that groups collective actions.
And I also think that the boomers of Scandinavia started raising taxes before the boomers of north America. Besides, being born in 1961 and thus a boomer I must say that I was born in to a system already in place. I never voted for higher taxes, I always voted for lower taxes.
And I don't like the runaway welfare state we have in Scandinavia, and never has.

I never claimed to be nice.

I know, that's why I'm urging you to be nice.
I know I can be hard sometimes when it comes to politics, but that's never personal. I would not have any trouble having a beer with any of my political opponents after a hard debate. But then again, I used to be involved in local politics and am used to that, some people in here might not. (looks at Hairy and smiles).

There's a Swedish saying, "It costs nothing to be polite, but it pays of well". (In a somewhat loose translation).

Are you going to urge the boomers to be nice or not? Let's just get that cleared up.

No, I think the boomers in here are pretty nice already.

Interesting.

[lightfoot]

After you get the message, hang up the phone.

Very true.


Back on my dryer mystery, I finally figured out not only was the timer arced but 1/2 of my 240 was a poor/intermittent connection at the hot water junction which is probably what caused the arch in the timer. After tracing that all I have to do now is put everything back together.

Nice job! Yeah old dryers would put the timer bridging one line of 240 and neutral. Even worse was when they bridged to frame ground, which can cuase fun if one of the hots open up. Which happened to you.

I'd try acid again, but man you need a whole weekend to shoot to do it properly. That stuff trashed me on Sunday when I took it on Sat morning, and that was when I was young and full of energy. Tricky stuff, can really rewire your microcode if you're not careful.

[JayJuanGee]

1h

She is putting up a decent and laudable fight at this stage, even while trade volume has remained largely mediocre.... while at the same time, this lingering might be giving some credence to both a Lindy effect theory, and a damn bursting possibility.  Though I am NOT going to proclaim to know whether this time around of passing above $10k (presuming that we do) will either endure or if any of us can rest assured that 4 digits has become a view in the rear mirror rather than a reoccurring status.

[Toxic2040]

[fonship]

1h

She is putting up a decent and laudable fight at this stage, even while trade volume has remained largely mediocre.... while at the same time, this lingering might be giving some credence to both a Lindy effect theory, and a damn bursting possibility.  Though I am NOT going to proclaim to know whether this time around of passing above $10k (presuming that we do) will either endure or if any of us can rest assured that 4 digits has become a view in the rear mirror rather than a reoccurring status.

More we squeeze more sustainable price action will be, it's maintaining well in the upper half of the recent range. I was looking at Bitcoin domination charts as well, going through a strong squeeze on that as well. Tried to breakout few times on different time frames but on domination chart but failed, but more we hit the sealing more we get closure to break it and fly to moon 

Another non-technical thing I think is, whales are afraid to dump this time as a different type of whales can end up buying as they are paying a premium on their so-called institution GBTC.

Multiple factors to price action, some we know ahead, some we get to know later and some are never known to anyone. Cheers!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

More we squeeze more sustainable price action will be, it's maintaining well in the upper half of the recent range.

Yes... we might even be able to profess that the BTC price has moved into a supra $8k price about two months ago, and several times, has pushed up to try to get above $10k and has mostly stayed in the higher parts of the price range, but even pushing up on the higher end of the range would not necessarily give confidence that a break is going to be up, rather than having some down correction... even though a lot of us would prefer to just leave 4 digits behind. and move onto BIGGER and higher price arenas.   

I was looking at Bitcoin domination charts as well, going through a strong squeeze on that as well. Tried to breakout few times on different time frames but on domination chart but failed, but more we hit the sealing more we get closure to break it and fly to moon 

I really have a lot of doubts regarding how much weight to give to such a sloppy and even manipulated metric, such as bitcoin dominance, including relying on the pumpementals (or lack of pumpementals) of a bunch of shitcoins in order to determine where the BTC price might go.

Recall that we had falling BTC dominance through a large part of the 2017 BTC price rise, and sure several of the shitcoins did outperform BTC on paper, but surely there would have been a much greater need to get out of those coins, and even questions about how to get out of some of them (once in them), so very difficult to give much confidence to figure out where bitcoin might go based on where it is relative to shitcoins.

Furthermore, another way that BTC dominance can be manipulated is by the addition of various other kinds of worthless coins.  i am not going to assert that tether is worthless, but there are other purportedly stable coins that may or may not be justified to add to the coin market cap (and even if tether might not be worthless, it is an asset is meant to be pegged to the dollar and provides a decent amount of in and out liquidity), so it just seems to be a bit of a different animal and whether it is inflated in one direction or another (whether artificially or not), that still might not really tell us where bitcoin is going to go whether we are talking short term or medium term. 

Same would be true if something like a Libra coin were to show up on the scene (coinmarketcap) all of a sudden, and let's say it came on with an evaluation that was greater than the value of bitcoin, and maybe bitcoin's dominance would then sink between 10% and 25%, but still would not be telling us anything about bitcoin's price performance and/or that bitcoin is a much better asset to be invested into, even if there might be some ambiguity in its relative short term price performance or its ability (or lack of ability) to sustain any kind of meaningful marketcap dominance.

Another non-technical thing I think is, whales are afraid to dump this time as a different type of whales can end up buying as they are paying a premium on their so-called institution GBTC.

Sure the GBTC premium could give some indication regarding increasing demands for that product which are supposed to be backed by real bitcoin.

Multiple factors to price action, some we know ahead, some we get to know later and some are never known to anyone. Cheers!

I agree with you that there are multiple factors affecting BTC price, and surely the effects of halvening can take several months before it is felt - but there still might be some questions regarding how much the BTC price might have had already been pushed up prior to the halvening (the priced in theory).. so surely, there might be some bearwhales who would like to play on perceptions that there is going to be a BTC price drop after the halvening before the BTC price goes up, but for sure a BTC price drop is not a condition precedent.  In other words, the BTC price could surely go up without any need for a BTC price drop first.

I will clarify that I do not buy that the halvening is in any kind of meaningful way "priced in," because I continue to believe that people hardly know shit about bitcoin, including people who own bitcoin, and there will still be a lot of attempts to get the BTC price to go down, even while the material reality of a shrunk supply (meaning the reduction of the issuance of new BTC) becomes more and more felt with the passage of time.. and forces the BTC price to go up, whether bearwhales want to keep the BTC price down or not.   

[fonship]

Recall that we had falling BTC dominance through a large part of the 2017 BTC price rise, and sure several of the shitcoins did outperform BTC on paper, but surely there would have been a much greater need to get out of those coins, and even questions about how to get out of some of them (once in them), so very difficult to give much confidence to figure out where bitcoin might go based on where it is relative to shitcoins.  

Please, I don't want to recall the year where I did not know "how to get out of some of shitcoins " 

Furthermore, another way that BTC dominance can be manipulated is by the addition of various other kinds of worthless coins.  i am not going to assert that tether is worthless, but there are other purportedly stable coins that may or may not be justified to add to the coin market cap (and even if tether might not be worthless, it is an asset is meant to be pegged to the dollar and provides a decent amount of in and out liquidity), so it just seems to be a bit of a different animal and whether it is inflated in one direction or another (whether artificially or not), that still might not really tell us where bitcoin is going to go whether we are talking short term or medium term.

Same would be true if something like a Libra coin were to show up on the scene (coinmarketcap) all of a sudden, and let's say it came on with an evaluation that was greater than the value of bitcoin, and maybe bitcoin's dominance would then sink between 10% and 25%, but still would not be telling us anything about bitcoin's price performance and/or that bitcoin is a much better asset to be invested into, even if there might be some ambiguity in its relatively short term price performance or its ability (or lack of ability) to sustain any kind of meaningful market cap dominance.

Totally agree that dominance can be changed by many factors without having any change in market condition. Like any altcoin pump, the addition of exchange on CMC, the addition of any token or coin of CMC, etc.
I just check once a while when my other indicators are not conclusive.

[JayJuanGee]

Recall that we had falling BTC dominance through a large part of the 2017 BTC price rise, and sure several of the shitcoins did outperform BTC on paper, but surely there would have been a much greater need to get out of those coins, and even questions about how to get out of some of them (once in them), so very difficult to give much confidence to figure out where bitcoin might go based on where it is relative to shitcoins.  

Please, I don't want to recall the year where I did not know "how to get out of some of shitcoins " 

I am somewhat sorry to rub it in, but there is not really a lot of sympathy for people who got involved in shitcoins in this thread, and I suppose there is more sympathy if you have at some point gotten out of them, and agree to mostly denigrate them.. at least in this thread.

Surely there are some folks who cannot resist to dabble in shitcoins, but I cannot really see much if any reason to have more than 10% of the value of your bitcoin investment into shitcoins, even though there might be some willing to accept that some people may have up to 25% in shitcoins, and still have some redeeming characteristics.

I recall during the 2017 price rise, there were quite a few people with almost no allocation in bitcoin, or merely small amounts of their investment in bitcoin like 10% or 20% in bitcoin, when their allocation into bitcoin should have been the opposite.. 80% to 90% in bitcoin.

Some are still waiting, anxiously, for another altcoin season that may or may not happen.. I am not going to write off the happening of another altcoin season, even though I still believe that it is not a good place to have very much of your investment unless you have largely got a decent stake in bitcoin first.

Furthermore, another way that BTC dominance can be manipulated is by the addition of various other kinds of worthless coins.  i am not going to assert that tether is worthless, but there are other purportedly stable coins that may or may not be justified to add to the coin market cap (and even if tether might not be worthless, it is an asset is meant to be pegged to the dollar and provides a decent amount of in and out liquidity), so it just seems to be a bit of a different animal and whether it is inflated in one direction or another (whether artificially or not), that still might not really tell us where bitcoin is going to go whether we are talking short term or medium term.

Same would be true if something like a Libra coin were to show up on the scene (coinmarketcap) all of a sudden, and let's say it came on with an evaluation that was greater than the value of bitcoin, and maybe bitcoin's dominance would then sink between 10% and 25%, but still would not be telling us anything about bitcoin's price performance and/or that bitcoin is a much better asset to be invested into, even if there might be some ambiguity in its relatively short term price performance or its ability (or lack of ability) to sustain any kind of meaningful market cap dominance.

Totally agree that dominance can be changed by many factors without having any change in market condition. Like any altcoin pump, the addition of exchange on CMC, the addition of any token or coin of CMC, etc.
I just check once a while when my other indicators are not conclusive.

Even if coinmarket cap is your last resort, it is still not a good resort... especially if you are attempting to figure out the short to medium term direction of BTC prices.

There are a lot of us who are active in this thread who believe that some of the best strategies in bitcoin are to dollar cost average, to buy on the dip and to HODL... And, frequently it is not a good strategy to sell with the intent to buy back later, unless you are merely selling small amounts as the BTC price goes up and using that money to buy back on the dip.

So yeah, if there is an anticipation that the BTC price might be breaking down, then it might be better to hold onto cash and to buy on the dip, so there are ways to just buy regularly no matter what and then try to not really guess if the BTC price is going to dip, but if it does happen to dip to have some fiat available to buy in the event that happens.

What kind of strategies are you following, fonship?

Have you been stacking away BTC that you do not sell, and maybe only selling small portions of your BTC from time to time, or are you trying to play BIGGER with your BTC stash in order to attempt to time the market?

A worse, practice would be shorting or using margin.  Those are very risky and take a lot of time to learn and to develop skills and we have even witnessed a lot of experienced traders who have come to the BTC space and tried to employ their trading skills while using margin and shorting and who frequently get reckt when they engage in such practices.

There are some traders who proclaim to do well with their engaging in leveraged trades, but many times those traders are shown to get matters wrong - especially when they are betting on down in a bull market.  Concededly we might not know whether we are in a bull market or a bear market until we have been in it for a year or more, but hey, still frequently, the stacking of BTC without engaging in leverage should still be enough to get very rich in bitcoin, without having to employ leverage.

[bitebits]

https://blog.kraken.com/post/5238/make-or-break-kraken-releases-may-2020-bitcoin-volatility-report/

Kraken Intelligence, our team of in-house research experts, has released its Bitcoin Volatility Report for May 2020. Key Takeaways:

- In May, Bitcoin climbed back above $10,000 for the first time in 10 weeks and set an intra-month high of $10,080 before finishing the month up +10% at $9,447.

- The month concluded with Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 falling to 0.13. At the same time, its correlation with gold stood strong at 0.50, supporting claims the asset is acting as an alternative store of value and an uncorrelated asset with respect to risk-on assets.

- With June typically being more volatile than May (generating an average and median return of +14% and +18%, respectively), Bitcoin could continue trending higher amid a revival in market volatility.

- Bitcoin’s 7-day average mempool transaction count further hit its highest level in more than 28 months in late May, suggesting higher volatility in the weeks ahead given historical trends.

- For five consecutive weeks, Bitcoin has tested the resistance of a multi-year pennant pattern formation. With Bitcoin holding near resistance, June could bring a break or rejection that translates to increased volatility.

[Phil_S]

Must be nice to work in a "team of in-house research experts".

[OutOfMemory]

Acid is a young persons game. After you get the message, hang up the phone.

I can't agree with you there Jimbo. I'm far from young and still use it. I find that the message changes over time. You could say it gives you the message you need to hear at the time.

Once you understand the universe you really don't need any more knowledge.

You haven't gotten the full picture yet.

Oh, I understand the universe as well as anyone can. Lots of help from meditation and psychedelics in that regard. However, I'm far from being able to claim omniscience. Anyone who claims to have the full picture most definitely does not have the full picture.

I'd like to add that saturation of knowledge doesn't have to keep you from experience.
I "know" the message of meditation and selflessness already, but i still enjoy the experience, for example.

[Karartma1]

Must be nice to work in a "team of in-house research experts".

I am pretty sure somebody here could post a truly adequate photo which relates to the topic: a "team of in-house research experts".
 

[machasm]

Must be nice to work in a "team of in-house research experts".

I am pretty sure somebody here could post a truly adequate photo which relates to the topic: a "team of in-house research experts".
 

I am sure a great photo opportunity will be had at the next 100k WO party.

[realsteelboy]

Has anyone had issues with their Trezor?

Whats the best place to go to get fast customer service?