Haven't been online much recently, did I miss much here?
Hi again to fellow hat wearers out there
Price went up, then it went down and then it went back up again.
It's only been a couple of months, I remember the drop, looks like price has moved up nicely from the $7K area where I thought it would pull-back
Hopefully I've come back in time to try and pick out the short-term top of this nice rally
But likelihood is I'll be wrong again
Surely, as you have suggested, nothing can be taken for granted in bitcoin.
Many times it would be logical to presume that if there is a lot of UPward BTC price movement, then a correction would be in order. However, we have crossed a decent amount of these sub $10k prices several times in the past, and sometimes bitcoin has shown itself to just be tired of continuing to pass through a range that it has passed through so many times.
In other words, sometimes it just becomes time to move on and to move up... but when that time comes is frequently difficult to identify with any kind of short-term precision.. so frequently, the most profitable folks in bitcoin seems to be those who error on the side of mostly preparing for UP, and maybe taking a slight hedging position in down - even though the down hedging position could remove some of the UP profits, in the even that outrageous exorbitant UP ends up coming at some point... which is far from guaranteed.
Nice to hear your take on things again. I'm very much on the fence about the current price movement. Back when prices were around $7K, I thought there was a >60% chance prices would correct, now we have moved a lot higher I'm 50-50, even 60-40 leaning bullish the more I think about things. We are still within what to me looks like a bull trend (purple) and within a bull flag structure (green), the latter targets much higher levels. There's therefore nothing to suggest a correction as of yet apart from being at long-term resistance (the red line). That said, we are consolidating above this resistance trend-line (that comes from the Weekly chart for reference sake), so again, this is far from bearish.
I realised that moving the Weekly long-term resistance trend-line to include the recent close above it (that would still be valid drawing wise), to suggest that we are struggling to breakthrough resistance, would be drawing a bull-trend with a bearish bias that to me makes little sense apart from airing on the side of caution - which is sensible from that perspective. But otherwise, it's ignoring the fact that we have closed a Weekly candle above it, even if technically we did the same last time at $10K which merely shifted the trend-line sightly higher to where I have drawn it now. It's all very subjective and inconclusive right now imo.
The main argument I see from this resistance is that the more times we test this long-term resistance trend-line (even if sloping downwards), the more the chances of a breakout above it increases, as it is part of the process of weakening this resistance. The main concern "should be" the TD 9 Sell signal, but look at the last time we had this sell signal back at $5K, with a similar bull flag structure. It was a false signal by a long-stretch. This price action does therefore remind me more of $5K "uncertaintity" that led to a massive parabolic bull run, compared to the previous time we were at $10K.
The Weekly close tomorrow will be an important candle, as to whether it looks like a doji reversal candle, or a newly Weekly closing high in recent months. At the moment, we are sitting between those two options with little clarity. Everything from today and through tomorrow will likely just be noise, unless we break-out of the bull flag structure. Breaking down from the purple bull-trend (from the Daily perspective) will be of little significance to me short-term.
My mid-term concern is that breaking down from this bull-flag will lead to $7K levels being re-tested, possibly with another capitulation wick, as opposed to healthy consolidation and support from the 200 Day MA around $8K. Given that we broke through the 200 MA without any resistance, I fail to see how it will act as support, especially given the lack of volume from these levels, as well as previous attempts to find support from this important moving average - that many use to define mid-term bull or bear trends.
Poll
