Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nutildah]

WTF!

I decided to take another try at trying to find out the history behind that 80000BTC dormant account tracing back some of the inputs.... and... Does that address belong to the EFF?!?!

that would be cool

I doubt it though, usually good stuff like that doesn't actually happen.

Well, I will try to expose my steps at tracing it back to reach my conclusion and let's see where is the mistake I (probably) made:

- Address with a balance of 80000 BTC that hasn't moved since march 2011: 1FeexV6bAHb8ybZjqQMjJrcCrHGW9sb6uF

- Addresses that funded that balance in one single tx at 2011-03-01:

1HGBF5vta4mfgmej8ZB4iTPx6yFsb6zvKy
184BCyFbhZBEGX9vvko9gbYaQt4Wj2HPNr
1J8ENxKSec9ghFvhfTrVjrBTvETEZNhqyF
1JcHoTwTa81HMYunR6uG4tB6zX3LpfaQti
1KWGJEJmSCu2hRA3vwTHKFE8173uRFQ6A8
1GcLjWwpAECpqZRghT1XEWuE6CS5FBLrmR
15uDPXE75Ed52qRJgsW7NwQ6ngDCJb5TDn
1FQtCEEEiLuFTvhbx4Z5fda3GXV5xXzmfN
1GPuT4JD1yKTEGnw2csTCqSAtS3DRiTD69
1FwnhahzYerpristjzo2iCSdFQUk9fGa1X
1H8jofCTJgMBgnNRTQarSdg2RXmzw94SMC
1BDLPfCCnvE6Uhx4ypbddGQhnxoSScbx8L
1CcbZBEDq4faZHaAK4BgodfyUkVfQjRiKK
1D6M2yfQiV1WoBxZym1ExCZDcKKh9uAjrK
14rb7YrJw5ifMM1Pr1oabVujuiEEW1vYqN
1BxLexhhFfHtrboVukidYsrYHLDPaH97A7
1BtXQwXjsvHpbBRrETsdZ7cG3XKMkNsVsp
1HHNNWFqAPqNdPQEUhT8keePvRKZXcq9DV
12AjENFa55qT27d2Tc4YTYtineh1dPHPpH
14Bn5mRas7dBc6pQSxQobN5RE49whMxVou
1Dc9jSB5W7HgyrsNN8P4Uy2FbidfgL4bwD
1F8Sy6P9NMqPrvpaSz5byPoP1poyNkeL8E
14crbtiapfwbiDgqCvMkkoqEAQwC1UF3Ra
16b3L5eiyFny9nggwmAjbtx6b4xjwJfu8y
1P6ZvBftEqhrvqWSWicWRHrbTeSKLFzJMy
16rRCLrmTa6Be8wQF7UkX5m765WqpuZjYn
1EC7bX9TucqzKL4aCRQb5UhsgdxdSn2w4z

   

I now assume all that addresses belong the same person. I guess this is not mistake.

Ok, now look at the last of those addresses:    1EC7bX9TucqzKL4aCRQb5UhsgdxdSn2w4z

It was funded with 6679BTC  on 2010-12-25. Thats its only funding, so again we assume all the funding addresses belong to the same individual. Maybe the mistake is here.

This are the funding addresses:

1JTmqXYFfdjWW2Z6TvbkfPT8L8vHdKGyMc
1LEKtycHHRCqj2TBEiqPeBdiWYY3RFj3BU
144xPDeQsk7vXgmRWqzETGQSUuFKzY24zq
1CWtqXYyZT5crpX4Jf1fmML1vESxUnAF3P
126bMAWKb9JPt4Rc1gTvtoF9bew1SA8Uzm
1MCwBbhNGp5hRm5rC1Aims2YFRe2SXPYKt (cgt )
1BMt8dxBwreG3ALu8RPqNhvtWTC2rak7ii
1Gq6YyhbJpeJyLewQ1kRuMS6cXkuHZGjyt

Well, we can assume all that addresses for sure belong to the same "person" even if it not the same of the 1EC7bX9TucqzKL4aCRQb5UhsgdxdSn2w4z one.

The amount is around $1700 at the time.

And... here is the interesting point... who is this "person"?

Well 1MCwBbhNGp5hRm5rC1Aims2YFRe2SXPYKt (cgt ) is the old EFF donations addresses. It is assumed all the other also belong to them.

So..... Either the 80000BTC belongs to the EFF too.... or to "someone" the EFF would donate $1700 on 25 december 2010. Wait a min.... Maybe Wikileaks/Assange?!?!?

Close... MtGOX

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/7q9kar/i_found_79k_of_stolen_mtgox_coins/

Your post is what comes up in Google when searching for addresses related to the MtGOX hack in 2011.

Reading through the email convos listed in court documents, Jed McCaleb was pretty furious with Karpeles all the way back toward the end of 2011. Amazing that Karpeles hung around there for an entire 2 years afterward.

[bitebits]

Seems like the Nasdaq is correlated to Bitcoin.

[VB1001]

https://imgur.com/VoeFyJ3

We all know that's coming.

Yeah, that boy is a future WO member, Hodler and probably rich.

[Vectra]

Seems like the Nasdaq is correlated to Bitcoin.

not a great thing, I'm afraid, as stocks are currently completely diverged from economy. They have to go down soon.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Another day of sideways I see... currently $9445USD/$12835CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Action soon? Real action or just some bouncing up and down and ending in the same place?

In lockdown. Jobless during Covid-19.
Sold my all bitcoin for food, shelter.
Can't predict anything right now    

That sucks dude but look at it this way; at least you had the BTC to sell to cover your ass for now. Hope all the best for you

What to do with btc, if i die for food? No use of it. Bitcoin is important but not more than anyone life.
But i wonder! There are some person, who give importance holding bitcoin even more than their life,,, which is madness & Ridiculous

This is why hodling is not about strictly refusing to sell. It is about not selling unnecessarily, not selling because of the price, or to take some silly fiat "profit".  It's too bad you had to sell it all though.

What's the point of wealth except to improve your life? Avoiding homelessness and starvation is a major life improvement.

Don't worry. Covid will pass. Other employment (or better yet, business opportunity) will come your way. You'll be able to buy more corn.  Some day you'll be able to tell people about the time when you could buy a million satoshis for only a hundred bucks.

After you've been rich and poor a few times, you stop worrying about it and enjoy the ride. It's kinda fun sitting around eating filet mignon and reminiscing about eating Oxo porridge or using old take-out squeeze pouches of ketchup on stale (20 minutes to cook it soft) spaghetti, because you couldn't afford real sauce.

You're absolutely right. Life is more important than money, including Bitcoin. Enjoy it while you can.

[sirazimuth]

Dude enters his seed holding 6 bitcoins into a Chrome extension???SMH
Bye bye bitcoin.
My condolences but good lord, being a hodeler since 2013 he really should have known better.

https://twitter.com/ericsavics1/status/1271589769336598528
(Apologies if already posted)

[d_eddie]

Get out of prison
the world feels like waking up
new weekend, new hope





#haiku

[JayJuanGee]

In lockdown. Jobless during Covid-19.
Sold my all bitcoin for food, shelter.
Can't predict anything right now    

That sucks dude but look at it this way; at least you had the BTC to sell to cover your ass for now. Hope all the best for you

What to do with btc, if i die for food? No use of it. Bitcoin is important but not more than anyone life.
But i wonder! There are some person, who give importance holding bitcoin even more than their life,,, which is madness & Ridiculous

You have to make judgements about that, and each other person has to make judgement for himself and his circumstances.

If you do not have any cashflow or any other savings, then you might be correct that you did not have a choice.

Many times, with any investment, you have to make sure that you get your shit together in all aspects before you are able to invest, otherwise you are gambling.  So in that regard, investing is a luxury that only comes after you have enough savings, such as cashflow, and all your basic expenses figured out for at least a few months, including emergency funds.

Nobody should be forced to cash out of their investment that is NOT at a time of their own choosing, otherwise that would likely be over-investing and/or gambling.

Don't get me wrong, I am sure that a lot of us have started out our investing life with a bit of gambling because it takes a long-ass time to really build up various aspects of an investment portfolio, so surely when in the initial stages of building any investment portfolio, it takes a while just to have enough cashflow, and let's say for example we have a cashflow of $1,000 per month but we have $500 in fixed expenses and $300 in variable expenses, so we only have $200 left, so we might end up putting $100 into our emergency fund and invest $100, but that first year might be stretching ourselves way too much by investing like that because we have hardly even established an emergency fund first, so maybe the more prudent thing would be to invest the whole $200 into the emergency fund, but we are too damned excited to get into some kind of investment that we decide to invest (gamble) instead.

I am not going to tell you what you need to do, because each of us has to choose for ourselves, and I certainly can recall my first 10 years or so that I was building my investment portfolio that sometimes I was overextending myself into my investments without an adequate amount in my emergency funds, so sometimes I was forced into reallocating (or selling) certain assets at times that were not of my choosing... and surely, I have found that it has become a lot easier to plan ahead the greater the size of your investment portfolio and the longer that you have been able to build it, even though from time to time, it can continue to be tempting to maybe risk more principle than is prudent because getting excited about one or another investment opportunity that presents itself.

By the way, you likely already know that it is really difficult to build your investment portfolio principle if you are prematurely cashing out, so each of us likely try to figure out ways that we can build our investment portfolio principle, so maybe instead of investing $100 a month into it, maybe we realistically can only afford $10, but as long as we are still building our portfolio investment principle, then probably we are in a better place than having to start over from zero at any point way earlier than we had wanted to do.  Also, sure, if you cannot get enough cashflow to even feel comfortable in investing some small amount, such as $10 per month, then you might not quite be ready for investments, and there may be some need to hustle to figure out ways to improve your cashflow in order that you can muster up a bit more cashflow so that once you start investing, you are not having to dip into the investment portfolio at any time that is other than a time of your own choosing.

[JimboToronto]

Dude enters his seed holding 6 bitcoins into a Chrome extension???SMH
Bye bye bitcoin.
My condolences but good lord, being a hodeler since 2013 he really should have known better.

https://twitter.com/ericsavics1/status/1271589769336598528
(Apologies if already posted)

A fool and his Bitcoins are soon parted.

Noticed this in the comments:

I've always been skeptical of hardware wallets. It gives a false sense of security.

No kidding. Not your keys, not your coins. Seeds are not keys.

What's so hard to understand about creating and keeping your own private keys to all your Bitcoin addresses? I guess some people just have a fetish about devices.

"Paper" wallets FTW.

[JayJuanGee]

BTC/USDT 4H


As you can see on the picture above, the downward movement can be seen in Ichimoku and we are also waiting for the price fall. The recent tend-line was broken and in order to change the trend and continue the ascending movement, the trend line should break upward and break the 9680-9700 strong resistance area(It requires very heavy support). This resistance is very important because it is also common point of our 50 day moving, Ichi and Fibo, which all play the role of resistance. After breaking this important resistance area, we can once again see the price touching 10,000 usd. But, in the case of not having enough support, our first scenario, which is shown in the picture above, will happen

I just made an analysis a few minutes ago. Here is the quote to share here with you.

You are only expecting down from here?  That seems like incomplete analysis, and if you are only talking about one direction that means what?  you are assigning 100% likelihood to that direction that you are talking about (down in this case)?  What about up or sideways?  what about lesser down or greater down than you are anticipating?

If you are assigning 100% likelihood to down and your target, do you bet accordingly?  If you talking as if something only has one outcome, then you should be betting everything on that too, otherwise, what you are saying is not consistent with your bets.   How are you betting?  Are your bets consistent with your words (as supposedly supported by your charts)?

https://imgur.com/VoeFyJ3

We all know that's coming. In the end kids are smart and given the right education they will be able to learn how to profit from this massive robbery perpetrated to humanity called fiat money and they will choose bitcoin.
One must fall.

I have met some pretty dumb and short term thinking kids, too, who probably learn such from their parents.  So, sure there will be a certain number of kids who become smart like that, yet probably continuing to follow a kind of 20/80 Pareto distribution principle.. something like that.

By the way, one or two podcasts back, I heard Anthony Pompliano talking about his NOT having had gotten an allowance, and then I had never thought about it that I never did get any allowance either.  I cannot recall getting any allowance, except maybe once in a while I would get a small amount of money to buy some treats.   I don't recall receiving any kinds of lessons on money management, so I first learned about money management after leaving home.    Even though my parents might not have thought about the reason for not giving an allowance, there seems to be some good in either NOT giving a kid an allowance or making the allowance contingent upon the kid carrying out certain home duties, such as cleaning their room or taking out the trash or washing dishes or some things like that... I suppose members here who have kids have varying ways that they treat allowance,  including when to start such allowance (if they do decide to provide such), and then also other decisions regarding if or when to allow kids to get some kinds of tech, such as a smart phone, handheld devices or their own computer (and who pays for it)... and what security parenting programs to include on such technologies, if allowed.

[nutildah]

What's so hard to understand about creating and keeping your own private keys to all your Bitcoin addresses? I guess some people just have a fetish about devices.

"Paper" wallets FTW.

And +1 WOmerit.

A paper wallet generated and printed offline is infinitely safer than any online wallet or hardware device. I mean, of course you need good ink and paper. And I would store it in a plastic sleeve of some sort. But it will never run the risk of being hacked or corrupted.

[Hueristic]

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/502506-federal-reserve-holds-power-beyond-what-we-can-imagine

Some of these cultist clowns think money printing is a magical super power. 

This bull run the King is taking us to prices they can't imagine either.

... until all that fake trust into USD erodes.

Or suddenly the most powerful military force the world has ever seen disappears?



New bill design is in.

[AlcoHoDL]

No kidding. Not your keys, not your coins. Seeds are not keys.

I fully agree with everything you've said, except the above.

If you can go from your seed to your keys in a deterministic, well-defined and publicly known way, then the two are equivalent. Seeds are keys.

It's exactly like the difference between a key in QR code form and in alphanumeric form. They are the same, just expressed differently. As long as I have my seed, you can take my Trezor and crush it to little pieces. I still have my keys (encoded in the seed) and can use several methods (a new Trezor/Ledger or any other h/w wallet, Mycelium or any other s/w wallet, I can even do the calculations myself) to gain access to my coins. And no one has to (and should ever) know my seed, except me. The entire process can be done completely offline.

Having said all the above, I do believe it's good advice to use paper wallets, especially for the non-technically literate coiners among us, who can easily fuck things up by doing something stupid with the 'puter, just like a kid can be injured by playing with a sharp knife (not the knife's fault).

[OutOfMemory]

No kidding. Not your keys, not your coins. Seeds are not keys.

I fully agree with everything you've said, except the above.

If you can go from your seed to your keys in a deterministic, well-defined and publicly known way, then the two are equivalent. Seeds are keys.

It's exactly like the difference between a key in QR code form and in alphanumeric form. They are the same, just expressed differently. As long as I have my seed, you can take my Trezor and crush it to little pieces. I still have my keys (encoded in the seed) and can use several methods (a new Trezor/Ledger or any other h/w wallet, Mycelium or any other s/w wallet, I can even do the calculations myself) to gain access to my coins. And no one has to (and should ever) know my seed, except me. The entire process can be done completely offline.

Having said all the above, I do believe it's good advice to use paper wallets, especially for the non-technically literate coiners among us, who can easily fuck things up by doing something stupid with the 'puter, just like a kid can be injured by playing with a sharp knife (not the knife's fault).

So you're not just telling me that a ledger nano is not "secure" without physical access?
I don't mean the software or transaction processing server, since the keys are stored only on the ledger and encoded into my written seed.
Did i miss something?

[AlcoHoDL]

No kidding. Not your keys, not your coins. Seeds are not keys.

I fully agree with everything you've said, except the above.

If you can go from your seed to your keys in a deterministic, well-defined and publicly known way, then the two are equivalent. Seeds are keys.

It's exactly like the difference between a key in QR code form and in alphanumeric form. They are the same, just expressed differently. As long as I have my seed, you can take my Trezor and crush it to little pieces. I still have my keys (encoded in the seed) and can use several methods (a new Trezor/Ledger or any other h/w wallet, Mycelium or any other s/w wallet, I can even do the calculations myself) to gain access to my coins. And no one has to (and should ever) know my seed, except me. The entire process can be done completely offline.

Having said all the above, I do believe it's good advice to use paper wallets, especially for the non-technically literate coiners among us, who can easily fuck things up by doing something stupid with the 'puter, just like a kid can be injured by playing with a sharp knife (not the knife's fault).

So you're not just telling me that a ledger nano is not "secure" without physical access?
I don't mean the software or transaction processing server, since the keys are stored only on the ledger and encoded into my written seed.
Did i miss something?

What I'm saying is that you can write your 24 seed words on a piece of paper and completely destroy the h/w wallet and anything related to the process of generating the seed. The seed alone is a map to get to your keys. No need to access any server or anything on the internet. You just need that little piece of paper. There is a mathematical one-to-one relationship between your seed and your keys. Nothing else is needed.

[JayJuanGee]

Seems like the Nasdaq is correlated to Bitcoin.

not a great thing, I'm afraid, as stocks are currently completely diverged from economy. They have to go down soon.

Yes, and the trillion dollar question, in the minds of bitcoin doubters remains the extent to which BTC is going to continue to have medium or longer term correlation to stocks.... and the BIGGEST doubters of bitcoin are likely those who are striving to attribute medium and long term correlation to short-term correlations that are a stretch at best..... and if they make their bets in accordance to such nonsense, they are either going to completely miss out or they are going to be way the fuck too underinvested in bitcoin... but hey each of us have to make choices based on information that we have and what we perceive to be the situation, even if we end up being wrong.

Let's see, right? and I am sure that there are going to be several regular WO members who are not going to get tricked into either not allocating a decent amount in bitcoin or under-allocating based on such nonsense predictions about purported medium to long term correlation of BTC to stocks.  Let's see how it plays out, especially given a several year timeline (rather than just looking at a few months.. or even a year...  here and there).  

TLDR: For your own sake, Vectra, I hope that you are NOT investing into BTC (or holding back) based on some kind of lame BTC/equities correlation theory.  

[OutOfMemory]

No kidding. Not your keys, not your coins. Seeds are not keys.

I fully agree with everything you've said, except the above.

If you can go from your seed to your keys in a deterministic, well-defined and publicly known way, then the two are equivalent. Seeds are keys.

It's exactly like the difference between a key in QR code form and in alphanumeric form. They are the same, just expressed differently. As long as I have my seed, you can take my Trezor and crush it to little pieces. I still have my keys (encoded in the seed) and can use several methods (a new Trezor/Ledger or any other h/w wallet, Mycelium or any other s/w wallet, I can even do the calculations myself) to gain access to my coins. And no one has to (and should ever) know my seed, except me. The entire process can be done completely offline.

Having said all the above, I do believe it's good advice to use paper wallets, especially for the non-technically literate coiners among us, who can easily fuck things up by doing something stupid with the 'puter, just like a kid can be injured by playing with a sharp knife (not the knife's fault).

So you're not just telling me that a ledger nano is not "secure" without physical access?
I don't mean the software or transaction processing server, since the keys are stored only on the ledger and encoded into my written seed.
Did i miss something?

What I'm saying is that you can write your 24 seed words on a piece of paper and completely destroy the h/w wallet and anything related to the process of generating the seed. The seed alone is a map to get to your keys. No need to access any server or anything on the internet. You just need that little piece of paper. There is a mathematical one-to-one relationship between your seed and your keys. Nothing else is needed.

That corresponds with my knowledge, and combined with this:

The private keys are yours, and are generated randomly through the local chip. They're in no way connected to a server over at Ledger nor is Ledger capable of getting hold of your private keys.

...makes the private key itself secure, even if i can't read it (but i could compute it offline via the seed, store it in paper format and wipe the ledger).
But according to "not your keys, not your coins", as i lack physical access to the private key directly, the "not your coins" part becomes valid (somehow).

All good. Also, i'd be quite a fool to have all my hodlings on a single address.

[ivomm]

I doubt that using paper wallets (PW) is safer than hardware wallets (HW). There are two exceptions, though. Neither is fool proof and forgetting your seed or giving to some program is equal to a disaster. The second exception is the problem detected for Trezor which was solved with additional passphrase.

When you generate the seed on HW it is seen only on the device. No internet, no theoretical possibility of someone seeing it. You have to write it  on paper, not by making pictures. Then you can memorize the 24 words and put in safe location just in case your memory fails. When you make transactions you need to press the button of the device which is both safe and easier than using other softare.  Moreover, HW display shows the address you are sending the coins. There are trojans which can detect a BTC address in the clipboard and then replace it with the hacker's address, so you may think you paste the right address. The creation of wallets on computers, using of printers, etc.  is potentially a risk if they fall into hacker's hands. Using the phone to take the picture of your paper seed and paste it in the app is also a risk. The pics may be uploaded in the cloud, etc. Typing your seed on a computer also is a risk of course. You never know what the trojans are capable of. There are hundreds of other risks related to router hacks, etc. I really don't see how one can claim paper wallets are 100% safe.

[Toxic2040]

hmmmm

flip a coin?


I will be honest..I am not sure what narrative drives the price above $10k right now and sustains it.  I still think we will see a pump over the next week if the fractal from last year holds. But I dont see it continuing in a years long bull run like everyone is hoping for. There is to much uncertainty in the world right now. Logic would dictate everyone pile into an actual hard money to preserve wealth but markets have never been rational.  

So basically...in typical bitcoin fashion...pump it up and then dump...thats my two sats

So yea...kinda feeling a little bearish today..will just have to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.




locally continued sideways...

lost in this cloud with what appears to be a small dip right out in front of us
should try and reclaim $9.5k support in the next 24 hours I believe
1h




slightly longer time frame still appears compressed and ready for a sharp move
4h




the daily is still tracking projected plot but change is imminent...again a sharp break away seems almost necessary at this point    #dyor
D

#stronghands

[JimboToronto]

No kidding. Not your keys, not your coins. Seeds are not keys.

I fully agree with everything you've said, except the above.

If you can go from your seed to your keys in a deterministic, well-defined and publicly known way, then the two are equivalent. Seeds are keys.

It's exactly like the difference between a key in QR code form and in alphanumeric form. They are the same, just expressed differently. As long as I have my seed, you can take my Trezor and crush it to little pieces. I still have my keys (encoded in the seed) and can use several methods (a new Trezor/Ledger or any other h/w wallet, Mycelium or any other s/w wallet, I can even do the calculations myself) to gain access to my coins. And no one has to (and should ever) know my seed, except me. The entire process can be done completely offline.

Having said all the above, I do believe it's good advice to use paper wallets, especially for the non-technically literate coiners among us, who can easily fuck things up by doing something stupid with the 'puter, just like a kid can be injured by playing with a sharp knife (not the knife's fault).

Sure, the seed could be thought of as a key, but I see it more as the seed being the key to a safe deposit box in which you keep your other keys.

You still have to trust the bank.