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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 4 (3.3%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (0.8%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (1.7%)
$85K to $90K - 10 (8.3%)
$90K to $95K - 15 (12.4%)
$95K to $100K - 27 (22.3%)
>$100K - 62 (51.2%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26570923 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
dragonvslinux
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June 06, 2020, 11:37:17 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Haven't been online much recently, did I miss much here?
Hi again to fellow hat wearers out there  Cheesy

Price went up, then it went down and then it went back up again.

It's only been a couple of months, I remember the drop, looks like price has moved up nicely from the $7K area where I thought it would pull-back  Cool
Hopefully I've come back in time to try and pick out the short-term top of this nice rally Cheesy But likelihood is I'll be wrong again  Tongue

Surely, as you have suggested, nothing can be taken for granted in bitcoin.

Many times it would be logical to presume that if there is a lot of UPward BTC price movement, then a correction would be in order.  However, we have crossed a decent amount of these sub $10k prices several times in the past, and sometimes bitcoin has shown itself to just be tired of continuing to pass through a range that it has passed through so many times.

In other words, sometimes it just becomes time to move on and to move up... but when that time comes is frequently difficult to identify with any kind of short-term precision.. so frequently, the most profitable folks in bitcoin seems to be those who error on the side of mostly preparing for UP, and maybe taking a slight hedging position in down - even though the down hedging position could remove some of the UP profits, in the even that outrageous exorbitant UP ends up coming at some point... which is far from guaranteed.

Nice to hear your take on things again. I'm very much on the fence about the current price movement. Back when prices were around $7K, I thought there was a >60% chance prices would correct, now we have moved a lot higher I'm 50-50, even 60-40 leaning bullish the more I think about things. We are still within what to me looks like a bull trend (purple) and within a bull flag structure (green), the latter targets much higher levels. There's therefore nothing to suggest a correction as of yet apart from being at long-term resistance (the red line). That said, we are consolidating above this resistance trend-line (that comes from the Weekly chart for reference sake), so again, this is far from bearish.



I realised that moving the Weekly long-term resistance trend-line to include the recent close above it (that would still be valid drawing wise), to suggest that we are struggling to breakthrough resistance, would be drawing a bull-trend with a bearish bias that to me makes little sense apart from airing on the side of caution - which is sensible from that perspective. But otherwise, it's ignoring the fact that we have closed a Weekly candle above it, even if technically we did the same last time at $10K which merely shifted the trend-line sightly higher to where I have drawn it now. It's all very subjective and inconclusive right now imo.



The main argument I see from this resistance is that the more times we test this long-term resistance trend-line (even if sloping downwards), the more the chances of a breakout above it increases, as it is part of the process of weakening this resistance. The main concern "should be" the TD 9 Sell signal, but look at the last time we had this sell signal back at $5K, with a similar bull flag structure. It was a false signal by a long-stretch. This price action does therefore remind me more of $5K "uncertaintity" that led to a massive parabolic bull run, compared to the previous time we were at $10K.

The Weekly close tomorrow will be an important candle, as to whether it looks like a doji reversal candle, or a newly Weekly closing high in recent months. At the moment, we are sitting between those two options with little clarity. Everything from today and through tomorrow will likely just be noise, unless we break-out of the bull flag structure. Breaking down from the purple bull-trend (from the Daily perspective) will be of little significance to me short-term.

My mid-term concern is that breaking down from this bull-flag will lead to $7K levels being re-tested, possibly with another capitulation wick, as opposed to healthy consolidation and support from the 200 Day MA around $8K. Given that we broke through the 200 MA without any resistance, I fail to see how it will act as support, especially given the lack of volume from these levels, as well as previous attempts to find support from this important moving average - that many use to define mid-term bull or bear trends.
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June 06, 2020, 11:59:57 AM

So, we go up?
Murat
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June 06, 2020, 12:05:34 PM

So, we go up?

Not yet, I am Still buying!
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June 06, 2020, 12:08:21 PM


Zero, in the poll, currently collecting and stacking sats, my vote in a normal BTC situation would be option 1.
#StrongHats
Agreed.
On a more stupid and ironic note I would use the following hashtag based on yours
#StrongCats
 Grin


Did a search of cat riding a unicorn and came up with alot of new and disturbing memes.
People have been really busy during the pandemic being locked down. Grin
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June 06, 2020, 12:22:53 PM

So, we go up?
nope
serveria.com
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June 06, 2020, 12:32:36 PM


Why not?
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June 06, 2020, 12:34:09 PM

So, we go up?

I see no reason for a correction now. After another leg up to 12k or 16k maybe. But now its up up up... go BTC go  Cool
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June 06, 2020, 12:40:41 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), JayJuanGee (1)


Hang on a minute, Julius. You don’t come in here & start being bearish, how dare you.



dragonvsandroid
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June 06, 2020, 12:41:54 PM


Cos someone said so.

I see no reason for a correction now. After another leg up to 12k or 16k maybe. But now its up up up... go BTC go  Cool

This is exactly why price is indecisive right now. There are those that believe price won't move any higher, and those that don't see any reason that a correction could occur Roll Eyes

Some people will never learn   Tongue
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June 06, 2020, 01:28:37 PM



 Roll Eyes

The banking institution(s) that are literally fucking over every person in the world are now virtue signaling.

Condescending and ironic doesn't even begin to describe this.
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June 06, 2020, 01:32:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Who understands it? He claims that Bitcoin can be a Haven of value, then changes everything he says when he claims that it would not be useful in the economy, it is incongruous.

Mark Cuban questions how a bitcoin economy would work, agrees on BTC as a store of value.

Quote
Cuban said that bitcoin can “be a store of value,” but pointed out that while the analysis of Preston Pysh on the current financial system wasn’t wrong. But he is wrong about the fungibility of BTC and it’s ability to impact society as a replacement for the current system, he added.



Source: https://coinnounce.com/mark-cuban-questions-how-a-bitcoin-economy-would-work/
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June 06, 2020, 01:38:03 PM

Who understands it? He claims that Bitcoin can be a Haven of value, then changes everything he says when he claims that it would not be useful in the economy, it is incongruous.

Mark Cuban questions how a bitcoin economy would work, agrees on BTC as a store of value.

Quote
Cuban said that bitcoin can “be a store of value,” but pointed out that while the analysis of Preston Pysh on the current financial system wasn’t wrong. But he is wrong about the fungibility of BTC and it’s ability to impact society as a replacement for the current system, he added.


Exactly, Mark gives absolutely no evidence or even detailed opinion to support why it's "not fungible" and "can't be a replacement for the current system."

But I know why. He's just a mouthpiece for the system. Because 90% of Bitcoin is already in the hands of people outside the "system", and that's why they don't want to use it.
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June 06, 2020, 01:40:12 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1)

Bitcoin is a force of nature by now. We don't actually need to pay attention to what the old dinosaurs or supposed experts are saying. The old system is dying and nothing can change that. That's why they spend time virtue signaling instead of doing something productive, they are scared.
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June 06, 2020, 02:18:49 PM

Mark either still wants one foot in the incumbent world or doesn’t understand Bitcoin. I think both  Grin
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June 06, 2020, 02:59:26 PM

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1269253110255493120?s=21

Indeed
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June 06, 2020, 03:08:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Wekkel (1)

^^ Next 30 years are critical...
Okay 20-30 years Cheesy

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June 06, 2020, 03:20:00 PM
Merited by infofront (1)

Who understands it? He claims that Bitcoin can be a Haven of value, then changes everything he says when he claims that it would not be useful in the economy, it is incongruous.

Mark Cuban questions how a bitcoin economy would work, agrees on BTC as a store of value.

Quote
Cuban said that bitcoin can “be a store of value,” but pointed out that while the analysis of Preston Pysh on the current financial system wasn’t wrong. But he is wrong about the fungibility of BTC and it’s ability to impact society as a replacement for the current system, he added.



Source: https://coinnounce.com/mark-cuban-questions-how-a-bitcoin-economy-would-work/

He is right. Bitcoin can be store of value one day, but is very different from current banking and financial system. Not a substitution.


Exactly, Mark gives absolutely no evidence or even detailed opinion to support why it's "not fungible" and "can't be a replacement for the current system."

Just open blockchain explorer. You will see then why Bitcoin is not fungible.
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June 06, 2020, 03:39:53 PM

^^ Next 30 years are critical...
Okay 20-30 years Cheesy



30 years?

I’ll be in my 60’s or dead.
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June 06, 2020, 03:53:14 PM



There must be another way...
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June 06, 2020, 04:01:50 PM

^^ Next 30 years are critical...
Okay 20-30 years Cheesy



30 years?

I’ll be in my 60’s or dead.
In that case we millennial need some lessons from JimboToronto, he seems to figured it out some stuff and ticking all the right boxes. Bad boys don't die that early anyways so don't you worry. Tongue

BTW I was being generous with the 30 year timeline in context of world reserve currency.
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