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Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
Yes - 43 (37.1%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25495560 times)
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ChartBuddy
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September 14, 2021, 08:01:25 PM


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philipma1957
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September 14, 2021, 08:11:59 PM


These steady 45-47 numbers are working along with gentle diff raises .

I feel there is a controlled dampening of price due to lack of chips.
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September 14, 2021, 08:28:39 PM
Last edit: September 14, 2021, 08:55:31 PM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

To give an idea of a 2eh investment look at nice piece by fillippone

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5359284.msg57904934#msg57904934

from above

each window is  13x12 = 156 pieces so 20,000/156= 128 windows were added world wide in the last 7 days.




now that is based on 50-50 new and old gear just saying the new is 128 windows the old would also be the equivalent so 256 windows like the photo above

translation big money companies are investing in infrastructure and gear = very bullish.


Now, I liked your "back of the envelope" calculations, I had to set up a proper Google Spreadsheet.
Of course, my results are a little bit different, but I might have messed some details:

How many "Valstagna Windows" equate to the most recent difficulty update?
Check here.
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September 14, 2021, 08:56:49 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)

The dude tired AF….

HODLsleep highly recommended.

Have a good HODL friends.









Edit… or whiteout HIGHLY, then it would be a HAIKU
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September 14, 2021, 09:01:36 PM


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September 14, 2021, 09:09:24 PM

We are getting back to 47k.

Current diff is very bullish.  +2.49%

Quote
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   700539  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.4905%  (988 / 963.99 expected, 24.01 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   17615033039278.88                            
Current Difficulty:   18415156832118.24                            
Next Difficulty:   between 18788753691860 and 18923655404394
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.0287% and +2.7613%
Previous Retarget:   September 7, 2021 at 8:05 PM  (+4.5423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 21, 2021 at 11:55 AM  (in 6d 23h 10m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 21, 2021 at 2:02 PM  (in 7d 1h 17m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 50m 6s and 13d 17h 57m 29s

this indicates large money being put into new gear. along with relocation of older gear.

I am not disagreeing with anything that you are saying here, philip.. and I had heard (perhaps from a little birdie?) that some of the China miners are turning their gear back on, too.. sure maybe somewhat covertly or somewhat after some of the official pressure had died down a wee bit... but still some of the Chinese miners are coming back online.. whether they are official or have (wink and a nod) permission or not.

Both are bullish signs. 2.5% means 4eh in gear

Pretend 1/2 is new and 1/2 is old

so 2eh in new gear.  if it was s19j only it would be 20,000 of them or 200,000,000 million usd worth of new units along with the infrastructure to run that.  about 20,000 x 3.3 = 66,000,000 kwatts of power or 66 mega watts hourly .

Fair enough.. You seem to have some decent spidey senses on some of these matters.. for sure...
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September 14, 2021, 09:33:28 PM

That's not true.  They are not too late.

It is true that bitcoin has pumped

It is true that bitcoin has pumped a lot

It is true that it would have been better getting in earlier

It is NOT true that bitcoin does not remain a great investment with a lot more upside potential

It is NOT true that nocoiners are too late


This all true.

We can lead horses to water, but we can't make them drink at the fountain of Bitcoin.

They would rather drink at the shitcoin fountains, get poisoned, and die. Because greed and ignorance.
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September 14, 2021, 09:50:08 PM

For bitcoin:
10X is attainable within relatively short time period (maybe 4 years or earlier as a spike)
100X is attainable over 10-15 years.

Overall, bitcoin looks like AAPL in Sep 2016 (coming off a peak and inching toward ATH).
AAPL did 5X the next 5 years. We could do much better.
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September 14, 2021, 09:50:25 PM

Regarding bitcoin price performance of the past month...

[...]

...some of my no coiner friends...

they don't see it,
they cannot see it
they don't want to see it

[...]

I'm also amazed at my nocoiner friends/colleagues/relatives' persistent passiveness when it comes to Bitcoin. They laughed at me in 2015, they still didn't listen to me in 2017, they started getting interested in 2020, they are more interested now, but they are still nocoiners and haven't bought a single sat! Instead, whenever Bitcoin is mentioned, they look at me like rabbits blinded by the light.

Bitcoin is a strange beast. You either get it, or you don't. Maybe some kind of special brain wiring is needed?  Cheesy

You see, #hodl is in fact a lifestyle.
You either just fit in, adapt to it, or you stay out.
Now guess what your nocoiner friends/collegues/relatives are like... Grin

Sorry to say that, but you really tried to help them, they didn't listen. Now that they are #HFSP, they have no chance but continue watching from the sideline in apathy.

That comes off as an improper framework.

You seem to be just reiterating the part that almost all of them believe, which is largely:
"bitcoin is like a stock and if it pumps, it can ONLY pump so much, so since bitcoin has already pumped 10x, 1,000x and 10,000x - depending on when beginning the base measurement - it is not capable of pumping more; therefore, I am too late."

That's not true.  They are not too late.

It is true that bitcoin has pumped

It is true that bitcoin has pumped a lot

It is true that it would have been better getting in earlier

It is NOT true that bitcoin does not remain a great investment with a lot more upside potential

It is NOT true that nocoiners are too late


Surely, we can say HFSP (have fun staying poor) but some of those folks will still end up coming around and can still come around - even if BTC pumps another 1,000x from here (that would be $46.6 million per coin), the investment thesis for bitcoin will not disappear, even if it costs more per unit to get it.. whether merely satoshi's can be afforded that time, and our 0.21BTC or our 0.63BTC collections are looking quite sweet at those BTC price levels.

Actually, some people will come around by just creating some kind of account and starting to invest $10 per week... but yes.. it is a whole hell of a lot of work, just to get them to carry out what (to us) seems to be the bare bones basics.


If you want to change your life, you have to act. Waiting is a trap. Especially in regards to get into Bitcoin long term.

Exactly.. that's why some will likely act later.. they are not trapped forever in HFSP.. even though relatively speaking they are going to likely end up being less richie.. but whatever.. we can ONLY do so much to help these normie peeps.. If they are not ready.. they are not ready.. I am not going to walk them through every single step.. especially if they are making too much work for me out of the project.  Of course, if they are showing interest.. and taking a wee bit of a humble pill, then yes, I will help them to set up an account or point them in a direction where they can learn more or even talk through a few of the matters that they might not want to read. but they learn by talking through the matter, but they have to take some actions rather than my having to drag them through each step... for example.. work on sending me a BTC address and then I can send you .00021BTC or something like that.. do something... do something... act excited about the info.. that's a start.

I'm not in the situation to reply to all of this in detail, but i wrote in a way that kind of overexagerrated the apathy part.
Now, i do think some of them will change (in figures of the 20/80 rule). Some problem with groups (co-workers) is, they tend to internally agree and sympathize, so i don't expect the co-workers are able to change their common narratives on Bitcoin.
I think it works more like so: Co-worker A hears from more friends or relatives over time that they discovered, understood and had success with Bitcoin (or "crypto").
He then starts off with a little set-and-forget buy, switches to lump-sum or DCA later, makes the same mistakes most newbies made and becomes a #hodler.
When he is successful and educated enough, he will probably slip into AlcoHODL's role and talk about in the co-worker circle.
It really gets on like in a pyramid scheme, but we know that this comparison/term is bullshit, when it comes to Bitcoin, but at least can push more people to FOMO-in, which is the way PS's work. Atomic social systems, if you know what i mean...

I don't disagree with anything that you are saying OOM.. just I am not sure why you really even need to go down the pyramid scheme analogy path - because there are some built-in appropriatenesses in using that kind of a description of how people might become more convinced about bitcoin.

For sure, there is going to be some blind-word of mouth aspects regarding bitcoin's continued and ongoing adoption - and sure that word of mouth component coupled with the recognition of past profits gets some folks to either blindly go into bitcoin or to go in with those kinds of superficial ideas about helping the pump.

There may well even be a whole hell of a lot of us in this thread who do not really understand bitcoin very well and we are just here because of the NGU (number go up) technology, and I am not even proclaiming that everyone necessarily needs to understand bitcoin beyond the NGU aspects of it.

For sure, it is not even uncommon for a large number of folks to come into bitcoin, and really to know nothing beyond looking at the charts or some other superficial assessment.  I am not really proclaiming my lil selfie to be very much of an exception to the rule except that I was already coming to bitcoin in late 2013 while looking for a dollar hedge and a gold replacement..... but even if I might have had one aspect of what I was looking for that caused aspects of bitcoin to resonate with me, I had continuously been an advocate of continuing to study and to attempt to learn as I went.. in terms of trying to get better understandings of what bitcoin was and part of my attraction to participating regularly in this forum/thread - once I was referred to it.

I do appreciate how there could be various kinds of group think that could end up going from negative to positive and therefore cause a group of associated individuals, such as coworkers to transition and then ending up transitioning based on superficial (and perhaps even nonsense - get rich quick ideas that may or may not end up playing out to their favor), and sure of course, sometimes it might not even matter so much how some individuals get into something like bitcoin because there are some pretty damned strong fundamentals that are likely going to help to gravitate some of the earlier ignorant entrance to begin to recognize and appreciate Gresham's law type principles.. even if they might not be able to articulate that is exactly the sense that they are getting in regards to spending other monies prior to touching their bitcoin.. and then the more and more those Gresham's law principles become known within their consciousness and they might even state them to their co-workers, peers, friends and relatives, - causing some of the Gresham law-type principles to likely also become somewhat contagious too.. even if some of the folks cannot articulate exactly why they are choosing to spend their BTC last (amongst their various spending options) .. and maybe even figuring out ways to NOT spend their BTC until they have exhausted all their other spending options first.


These steady 45-47 numbers are working along with gentle diff raises .

I feel there is a controlled dampening of price due to lack of chips.

I will proclaim that your seeming ongoing inclination to consider bitcoin prices in terms of miner input costs seem to be putting limits on your own appreciation that bitcoin gives few if any shits about how much your lil miners cost.

I am not proclaiming such costs to be totally irrelevant to the various ups and downs of BTC's price movements - even though I would proclaim the more important aspects of bitcoin is to take into account the various BTC price models - and the mining component within the various models remains a relatively small part (even though it is a part - it does not wag the dog in any kind of meaningful way, except on the margins, at best).  if I need to re-iterate the currently valid BTC price prediction models or go into detail, let me know.. and surely it would be interesting if some of you regulars in this thread (including uie-pooie, phillip) attempt to account for how much of your little price theory - whether short term, medium term or long term might need to at least attempt to account for the various seemingly currently valid BTC price prediction models - rather than just spouting out something that seems to be either completely detached or giving way too much (or too little for that matter) to the other various components in the currently valid BTC price prediction models.
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September 14, 2021, 10:01:26 PM


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September 14, 2021, 10:23:56 PM

47 is back  Grin
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September 14, 2021, 10:40:52 PM
Merited by Poker Player (1)

The dude tired AF….

HODLsleep highly recommended.

Have a good HODL friends.




Edit… or whiteout HIGHLY, then it would be a HAIKU

Well, get your ass out of bed and update your WO communications into proper format, soldier!!!!!!!


 Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry


I can hardly understand the laxness in these here parts in recent times (not like the good ole days).. and even defiance for that matter..  Cry Cry

Maybe our being stuck in 5 digits for so long is contributing to such falterings?  I am fairly confident that Bitcoin (and NGU technology) fixes this.

For bitcoin:
10X is attainable within relatively short time period (maybe 4 years or earlier as a spike)

Fair enough.  $46,800 as I type (and according to CB), so 10x-ish would be $468,000-ish

Another way of saying that is another 10x is possible for what seems to be the remainder of this cycle - which could be 4-12 months remaining (perhaps) or the 10x from here could come at the beginning of the next cycle.. presuming that we are still in cycles.. so in that regard, two to three years from now.. we could be starting the bullish part of the next cycle.


100X is attainable over 10-15 years.

Seeming to be erroring quite a bit on the bearish side, Biodom... no?  Let's put 100x at $4,680,000 based on approximate current prices.

Think about the 2013 price peak, we had more than a 100x price appreciation for that cycle from below $10 to $1,163 in less than a year..

Think about the 2017 price peak, we had around 78x price appreciation from the 2015 base of $250-ish to
$19,666.

Think about our so far BTC price performance of this cycle.. so far.. from a base of about $4,200 in April 2019 to $64,895, so far... that is so far a price increase of around 15.5x.. but let's say that something like another  somewhat conservative price appreciation of 6x from here causes this peak to be about $280k.. (so that would be nearly 67x for the whole cycle)...

So then if we speculate that after our BTC price peak, we could end up having a correction and base jumping off price that brings us back into the $60k territory.. so surely it could be a stretch to get $4.68million from our next 4 year cycle (that would be 78x), but would it be a stretch to consider 2 cycles.. rather than your thinking about 2.5 cycles to 3 or 4 cycles?  Sure.. you could end up being correct in regards to the shrinking exponential price jumps that are going to be likely to play out in our future cycles. even going out as far as 4 cycles.  So perhaps, I am not disagreeing with you as much as I thought, even though I was considering your 100x from here in 10-15 years to be a wee bit on the bearish side.


Overall, bitcoin looks like AAPL in Sep 2016 (coming off a peak and inching toward ATH).
AAPL did 5X the next 5 years. We could do much better.

Stocks do come off as inept comparisons to bitcoin, even though I understand that people make those kinds of comparisons that might show that not only is it possible, but bitcoin is potentially more bullish than a stock, too.
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September 14, 2021, 10:58:38 PM


Shill bidding at its finest, this is what those so-called investors do not understand, if I have a dollar and I were to exchange it with another person then we can still buy the same amount of goods regardless of the state of that dollar, with the only exception of those dollars that have some uniqueness to them which give them additional value, this is what we call fungibility and it is critical for any form of money, bitcoin included.

Non-fungible assets like comic books, works of art, wine or NFTs are not really interchangeable and each little detail counts towards their value, but this means their market is way smaller and manipulating it is easier, in fact right now a bubble is forming on vintage video games as well with some games selling for more than a million dollars, but it seems that everything is a scam, similar to what we are seeing in this market with NFTs.
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September 15, 2021, 03:22:35 AM

El Salvador another achievement as half a million population is already using the official wallet Chivo which have $30 of bitcoin as signup bonus
 
Source:  Half a million users using Chivo wallet

It has just adopted it as legal tender and this is growth so many are going to adapt to the same.
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