Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

took 7k of my rescued coinbase money and got some gear.

get some yubikeys and make it part of your permanent kit. best 2fa yet, or close to it.

coinbase and gmail use it.

I think I will as they would likely be more durable than a phone using microsoft/auth

You can run Microsoft/auth on any system, including an airgapped one. The auth keys can be backed up separately from your btc private keys or exchange passwords/keys. Seems almost equivalent to me.

[1715425199]

1715425199

[JayJuanGee]

Surely that picture is not depicting bitcoins.. perhaps satoshis or some unit that is smaller than a bitcoin, no?

...but the real mistake is doing DCA rather than "all in"!

Many Plebs do not have lump sums to invest, so sure there may well be advantages to lump sum, if you have it, but even if you have $12k, you might not want to invest the whole $12k all at once.. and of course, there's quite a bit of discretion in that.. even though we know that DCA can be a very powerful anytime get started strategy.. Lump sum is also not without its drawbacks, even if you have it as an option... One thing that is good about options is actually having them.. so in that regard, many of us can appreciate that if we have created options for our lil selfies (whether referring to our chosen investment in bitcoin or other things that we may have done in our lives to expand the kinds of resources that we are able to access in the event that we want to).

[philipma1957]

took 7k of my rescued coinbase money and got some gear.

get some yubikeys and make it part of your permanent kit. best 2fa yet, or close to it.

coinbase and gmail use it.

I think I will as they would likely be more durable than a phone using microsoft/auth

You can run Microsoft/auth on any system, including an airgapped one. The auth keys can be backed up separately from your btc private keys or exchange passwords/keys. Seems almost equivalent to me.

Yeah I decided to try a yubikey. I don't need it right away buy amazon had them and I have some gift cards on the z so wtfn?

Have to say thank god I had the microsoft auth.

Oh still trying to get the number parted back to me.

and still tracking down each and every account that used that number.

I do not think I am in bad shape with much wealth at risk at the moment.

It could have been a very shitty christmas for me.

oh tracfone said a huge amount of illegal porting happened this december so they are backed up fixing it.

[El duderino_]

Everyone spare yourselves from Matrix 4

Not gonna say more about it

Let me guess...

Neo is now a Mexican tranny in a wheelchair and Morpheus fights against the omnipotent white patriarchy together with the Smiths ??

You make it sound enjoyable compared with what I have seen.

[xhomerx10]

cinquanta

 

 cinquanta!

[Richy_T]

I don't get the reference.

The Wachowski brothers decided to become the Wachowski sisters.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[fillippone]

cinquanta

 

 cinquanta!

Cinquanta!

[philipma1957]

Ford has a better idea
all electric cabs

https://www.foxnews.com/auto/electric-ford-mustang-mach-e-built-hacks

[JayJuanGee]

@CarlBMenger
Choose wisely.
Fiat slavery vs #Bitcoin sovereignty.

https://twitter.com/carlbmenger/status/1473776988116692995?s=21

 Not really convinced the proposed action (bottom right) is going to be “life changing” … 😉

I agree that both BTC portfolio management and considering how to individually tailor goes beyond mere HODLing - even if HODLing might comprise a decently-sized role.. and of course, if there is a desire to create, maintain and build generational wealth, there seems to be some kind of need for guidance beyond asserting that it took "a few years" to get to such place... . even though many of us likely can recognize and appreciate that bitcoin has the ability to accelerate both wealth accumulation/generation and also both getting to fuck you status and beyond, too.

That is some high quality hopium, LFC!  One in particular resonates with me:

This #Bitcoin  dip is just the four-year cycle guys selling.
What happens when they realize the market cycle is not over?

I have outlined the idea of the 4 year cycles either reducing in (particularly downside) magnitude or going away altogether so often and so loudly that nowadays I just come here, read a little, consider posting something about that and then say "Nah.. no need to make everyone sick of me".  

Regarding your point about peeps getting sick of you.... oh gawd... 

Regarding your point about a kind of profundity that might exist from the disappearance of the 4-year cycle.. seems that the theory has been batted around a quite a bit.. so it is not exactly new to weigh one perspective versus another perspective.

Regarding your point about peeps trying to time the market including presuming that the 4-year cycle has ended.. yes, we see that kind of behavior all the time, too... including peeps selling around previous ATH and including people following a variety of nonsense theories (or spins on theories) that cause them to sell too much too soon.

Is there something deeper going on or some angle that is uniquely of your spinnenings?

 

 

Along with the fact retail are currently mesmerized by the latest big chain narrative being crammed down their throats by all the vest wearing VC assholes.  My, how those narratives have morphed over the years.  A pile of solutions looking for a problem.  World computer. Sound money!  ICOs,  No, Sound money!  WEB3!  No sound money! No WEB3!!!

For sure, fair point that there are so many ways to take advantage of people wanting to short-cut the process in terms of getting rich quicker.. but then not so much knowing that they are being played.. and sometimes even realizing that they are being played but that they will be able to get in and out of the investment, make a quick buck, and not end up being the one left holding the bags of crap.... some folks who get left holding the bags had already been left holding the bags in the past, but figure that this time they are going to be able to play it better.. and maybe sometimes it ends up working for them.  Perhaps?

HOW IS DCA HELPFUL

It's more fair if you show graphs with different starting dates, not just at the Covid-crash.

I did a few calculations on dcabtc.com:

Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2011-03-21 would have turned $265 into $407 (+53%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2012-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,749 (+560%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2013-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,010 (+281%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2014-03-21 would have turned $265 into $182 (-31%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2015-03-21 would have turned $265 into $373 (+40%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2016-03-21 would have turned $265 into $417 (+57%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2017-03-21 would have turned $265 into $710 (+167%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2018-03-21 would have turned $265 into $194 (-26%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2019-03-21 would have turned $265 into $211 (-20%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2020-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,230 (+364%)

Seems to be a similar point that I was trying to make in my post (and yeah, you beat me to it Loycebot), but actual real world examples showing the variance.

[philipma1957]

...

I did a few calculations on dcabtc.com:

Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2011-03-21 would have turned $265 into $407 (+53%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2012-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,749 (+560%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2013-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,010 (+281%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2014-03-21 would have turned $265 into $182 (-31%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2015-03-21 would have turned $265 into $373 (+40%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2016-03-21 would have turned $265 into $417 (+57%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2017-03-21 would have turned $265 into $710 (+167%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2018-03-21 would have turned $265 into $194 (-26%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2019-03-21 would have turned $265 into $211 (-20%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2020-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,230 (+364%)

Seems to be a similar point that I was trying to make in my post (and yeah, you beat me to it Loycebot), but actual real world examples showing the variance.
[/quote]

but that is dca for a year with zero hold after the year.

if you dca 5 a day in 2011 turning the 265 into 407 a year later in 2011 and just hodl till now you would have over 4 usd million worth of BTC.

$407 in 2012 march 21 was how many btc ? about 81 btc so 81 x 50k = 4 million +

so dca and hold  for 1 year has not always worked as a profit for that 1 year so what.

how about dca for 3 years hold the coin

so
2011 to 2014 795 in and what out at end of 3 years
2012 to 2015 795 in and what out at end of 3 years
2013 to 2016
2014 to 2017
2015 to 2018
2016 to 2019
2017 to 2020
2018 to 2021

any of those 3 would be really fucking good 

on second thought maybe march 21 2017 to march 21 2020   could be weak

[Copetech]

Ford has a better idea
all electric cabs

https://www.foxnews.com/auto/electric-ford-mustang-mach-e-built-hacks

In my opinion, the entire EV industry is intentionally neglecting the easy answer to instant mass adoption in order to maintain a disposable market.
Imagine, universal externally hot swappable batteries. Gas stations would be able to keep a set inventory of batteries and a reconditioning/recharging process. End users would drive into a station and pull a lever to eject their dead batteries like a cassette tape and insert the new fully charged batteries. The station would charge based on the number of joules remaining verses the number of joules added. Then the end user is back on the road in minutes very similar to the current model of stopping to fill a tank. Add to it the ability to charge at home and this creates a system far superior to the current petro system and mass adoption would be a no brainer.
PersonallyIdrive 60k miles per year (average) for work. My territory of customers covers a large area and it's pretty common for me to stop and fill the tank 2 times and sometimes even 3 in a day. It would make absolutely no sense for me to make the change to an EV with a 300 mile limit between charges, especially since I frequently end up in a hotel overnight to get up and drive again the next day. An hour or more at a gas station to charge is just out of the question as it cuts into valuable response time. But if I could pull in, swap batteries, and be back on the road in 15 minutes or less, this could be a tremendous incentive to switch to EV.
But instead, the manufacturers are banking on the fact that batteries will wear out every 3-5 years and most people will dispose of the car and get another rather than pay the cost of replacing an expensive proprietary battery. A rotating door of repeat sales to a minority as opposed to a mass adoption of the majority. But with subsidies and media blasts who can really blame them.

[JayJuanGee]

And the other thing that scares me... Recently both Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump have said basically the same thing.  Bitcoin threatens the dollar hegemony.

I think this is quite meaningful.  And revelatory.  

What I fear is eventually the powers that be will figure out that possibly their very best chance against Bitcoin is not a CDBC, but rather Ethereum.  And this is one of the reasons the vest asshole, and the idiot xxx.eth people are so annoying.  Because they are too greedy, or stupid respectively to recognize that what they are doing it propping up the best chance the old system has to save themselves.

It is my hope that TPTB waste another 10 years trying to push their CDBC experiment.  I think we will see that fail in a GLORIOUS fashion.  In fact, I think their efforts in this will likely add so much game theoretical gasoline to the Bitcoin fire that, though it might be a rocky decade in some ways, one of the missteps they could make and are likely to.

Oh gawd.. you are going to go there.

I am not going to put it past some of the powers that be to actually believe that something like ethereum might be the solution.. but they can't really be that dumb, can they?

In other words, I cannot figure out if they are that dumb or is your post dumb...or a long shot that it could be me...    

It's taken around 4 months, but from my understanding the accumulation zone has officially moved up from $33.6K level to $48.4K. Congrats everyone, we did it! 🥳



Ironically, it happens on the day of a break of $50K, but was also due any day now pending an increase of volume which has now taken place.
Still won't be surprised to see a re-test of the 50 Week MA this week or next around $48K, but for now, price looks very bullish indeed.
Next step, moving the accumulation zone up to $56.5K, to build the next level of strong support. Still a way to go yet before ATH.

Nice to hear that our BTC accumulation zone is moving up..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

...

I did a few calculations on dcabtc.com:

Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2011-03-21 would have turned $265 into $407 (+53%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2012-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,749 (+560%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2013-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,010 (+281%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2014-03-21 would have turned $265 into $182 (-31%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2015-03-21 would have turned $265 into $373 (+40%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2016-03-21 would have turned $265 into $417 (+57%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2017-03-21 would have turned $265 into $710 (+167%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2018-03-21 would have turned $265 into $194 (-26%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2019-03-21 would have turned $265 into $211 (-20%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2020-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,230 (+364%)

Seems to be a similar point that I was trying to make in my post (and yeah, you beat me to it Loycebot), but actual real world examples showing the variance.

but that is dca for a year with zero hold after the year.

First off.. I fixed your quote because it was Loyce who had quoted those examples and I responded to him.

Second, Loyce probably gave one year long examples because the infographic was seeming to do the same.. to pick the last year, but not likely a very representative year  - in the event that any of us were to want to measure 1 year's performance at a time.

if you dca 5 a day in 2011 turning the 265 into 407 a year later in 2011 and just hodl till now you would have over 4 usd million worth of BTC.

$407 in 2012 march 21 was how many btc ? about 81 btc so 81 x 50k = 4 million +

Fair point.

so dca and hold  for 1 year has not always worked as a profit for that 1 year so what.

how about dca for 3 years hold the coin

so
2011 to 2014 795 in and what out at end of 3 years
2012 to 2015 795 in and what out at end of 3 years
2013 to 2016
2014 to 2017
2015 to 2018
2016 to 2019
2017 to 2020
2018 to 2021

any of those 3 would be really fucking good  

on second thought maybe march 21 2017 to march 21 2020   could be weak

Seems to me that a lot of people (including yours truly) have been suggesting at least a minimum of a 4-year long investment period.

Of course, anyone could get lucky in a shorter than 4-year investment period of time, but if any of us is attempting to play longer term rather than luck, then we should be shooting for the 4-year - full cycle - minimum... and so presenting it as a 3 year question seems to leave a bit more uncertainties about whether you may or may not be in profits at that time and you may or may not be sufficiently in profits to really be representative of a whole cylce.

If anyone is able to consider 10 years or longer as their investment timeline then such persons are likely even in a better place to be able to be advantaged from compounding values.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

...

I did a few calculations on dcabtc.com:

Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2011-03-21 would have turned $265 into $407 (+53%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2012-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,749 (+560%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2013-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,010 (+281%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2014-03-21 would have turned $265 into $182 (-31%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2015-03-21 would have turned $265 into $373 (+40%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2016-03-21 would have turned $265 into $417 (+57%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2017-03-21 would have turned $265 into $710 (+167%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2018-03-21 would have turned $265 into $194 (-26%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2019-03-21 would have turned $265 into $211 (-20%)
Wow! Buying $5 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2020-03-21 would have turned $265 into $1,230 (+364%)

Seems to be a similar point that I was trying to make in my post (and yeah, you beat me to it Loycebot), but actual real world examples showing the variance.

but that is dca for a year with zero hold after the year.

First off.. I fixed your quote because it was Loyce who had quoted those examples and I responded to him.

Second, Loyce probably gave one year long examples because the infographic was seeming to do the same.. to pick the last year, but not likely a very representative year  - in the event that any of us were to want to measure 1 year's performance at a time.

if you dca 5 a day in 2011 turning the 265 into 407 a year later in 2011 and just hodl till now you would have over 4 usd million worth of BTC.

$407 in 2012 march 21 was how many btc ? about 81 btc so 81 x 50k = 4 million +

Fair point.

so dca and hold  for 1 year has not always worked as a profit for that 1 year so what.

how about dca for 3 years hold the coin

so
2011 to 2014 795 in and what out at end of 3 years
2012 to 2015 795 in and what out at end of 3 years
2013 to 2016
2014 to 2017
2015 to 2018
2016 to 2019
2017 to 2020
2018 to 2021

any of those 3 would be really fucking good  

on second thought maybe march 21 2017 to march 21 2020   could be weak

Seems to me that a lot of people (including yours truly) have been suggesting at least a minimum of a 4-year long investment period.

Of course, anyone could get lucky in a shorter than 4-year investment period of time, but if any of us is attempting to play longer term rather than luck, then we should be shooting for the 4-year - full cycle - minimum... and so presenting it as a 3 year question seems to leave a bit more uncertainties about whether you may or may not be in profits at that time and you may or may not be sufficiently in profits to really be representative of a whole cylce.

If anyone is able to consider 10 years or longer as their investment timeline then such persons are likely even in a better place to be able to be advantaged from compounding values.

It is why I picked 3 years.
loyce clearly shows some 1year dca plans ie 1 and sell lost.

I checked 4 years already and all 4 x 265 = 1060 in sell on the end of year four make good returns every one is over 4x

So after seeing the 1 year data have some losers and I quickly eyed 3 years and thought that every 3 year plan should do really well. at least 2x on 1060