Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714470163]

1714470163

[ImThour]

LOWER THAN 100 IQ PEOPLE WILL START SELLING NOW.
100 IQ+ WILL BUY NOW.

[Biodom]

Bitcoin market vs Wall Street:

2018-2021 in bitcoin is the equivalent of Internet in 1997-2000 (the early pile up, volatility in 1998 that could be compared to bitcoin's 2020 episode, recovery and fast capitalization growth).

2022 (plus maybe part of 2023, maybe not)-Wall street, having figured out that bitcoin (with or without others) is THE GAME (witness where all former head honcho regulators from SEC, OCC, etc got the new jobs), wants to push bitcoin down as much as they could similarly to Internet stocks in 2001-2002.

late 2022 (hopefully) or 2023-we start the bull run that would last a VERY long time and would go to incredible highs (for comparison see charts of GOOGL, NFLX since 2004). The underlying cause-mass adoption, of course.

TL;DR it rhymes with the Internet story-line.

[Arriemoller]

Just thinking aloud here, god awful price. Really looks like someone is just trying to push the market down time and time again. In the mean time on-chain data is still pretty positive, how long can this divergence last I wonder. Keep thinking we should see a move in January at least, but the price isn't making much sense to me anymore.

I don't know, wasn't the 2013 top in November and the 2017 top in December, that would place the next top in January.
I'm not ready to give up the four year cycle theory just yet, If we still haven't had a blow of top in march I'll abandon it, but not before that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

Giggling a bit that because the FED raising interest rates with a few basis points on their filthy fiat, the dollar value of Bitcoin goes down.

Why does the FED raise interest rates? Inflation, massive inflation. Do you really think the dollar is now all of the sudden a store of value again? Of course not, bitcoin is. Raising interest rates hurts those having debts, number one being your government. Interest would never be raised unless red alert.

This is the time to buy bitcoin, not sell.

[JayJuanGee]

Giggling a bit that because the FED raising interest rates with a few basis points on their filthy fiat, the dollar value of Bitcoin goes down.

Why does the FED raise interest rates? Inflation, massive inflation. Do you really think the dollar is now all of the sudden a store of value again? Of course not, bitcoin is. Raising interest rates hurts those having debts, number one being your government. Interest would never be raised unless red alert.

This is the time to buy bitcoin, not sell.

Yes,.,. but they have not actually raised such interest rates yet... they ONLY said that they intend to raise them, and if they actually did raise them, they would probably end up having to soon thereafter roll back such an action...

I just don't see how they can actually raise them .. they seem to have really painted their lil selfies in a corner...

[aesma]

Holy crap I'm poor !

Wouldn't think Kazakhstan played a role in BTC, did Chinese miners go there ?

Is there something wrong with the poll ?

[AlcoHoDL]

Is there something wrong with the poll ?

No, nothing wrong with the poll. It's just that the forum's AI has intervened, blocking any impossible or pointless choice (i.e., all of them).

Surely, Bitcoin's highest price of 2022 will be supra-$500k, no?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Giggling a bit that because the FED raising interest rates with a few basis points on their filthy fiat, the dollar value of Bitcoin goes down.

Why does the FED raise interest rates? Inflation, massive inflation. Do you really think the dollar is now all of the sudden a store of value again? Of course not, bitcoin is. Raising interest rates hurts those having debts, number one being your government. Interest would never be raised unless red alert.

This is the time to buy bitcoin, not sell.

Yes,.,. but they have not actually raised such interest rates yet... they ONLY said that they intend to raise them, and if they actually did raise them, they would probably end up having to soon thereafter roll back such an action...

I just don't see how they can actually raise them .. they seem to have really painted their lil selfies in a corner...

It's jawboning. Thing is lets say they raise rates, the economy will still need to be supported otherwise deflation will come in. So what they take with one hand they will give with another. And if they don't, and things crash, you watch how quickly they reverse. It would make The Flash jealous.

On another note look at this divergence. Illiquid supply is coins going to addresses with little history of selling, this dip is still a buying opportunity.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Bought the mofo dip.

Another 200 Big Mac Meals worth.

[tertius993]

Just thinking aloud here, god awful price. Really looks like someone is just trying to push the market down time and time again. In the mean time on-chain data is still pretty positive, how long can this divergence last I wonder. Keep thinking we should see a move in January at least, but the price isn't making much sense to me anymore.

I don't know, wasn't the 2013 top in November and the 2017 top in December, that would place the next top in January.
I'm not ready to give up the four year cycle theory just yet, If we still haven't had a blow of top in march I'll abandon it, but not before that.

If your "four year cycle theory" is based on the halving cycle, then you need to allow for the fact that the halvings aren't exactly four years apart AND that the subsequent highs and lows are taking longer and longer to take effect as the proportion of coins affected reduces.

See this thread, for a longer analysis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0

[Tash]

https://coinmarketcap.com/headlines/news/kazakhstan-government-shuts-internet-bitcoin-hashrate-dips/

Might explain the dip.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/

The Kremlin has said it expected Kazakhstan, a close ally, to quickly resolve its internal problems, warning other countries against interfering. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Russian accusations that the United States had instigated the unrest were false.

Initially sparked by anger at a fuel price rise, the protests have quickly spread to take in wider opposition to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev, who retained significant power despite quitting in 2019 after a nearly three-decade rule.

After accepting the Cabinet's resignation, Tokayev ordered acting ministers to reverse the fuel price rise, which doubled the cost of liquefied petroleum gas widely used for vehicles in Kazakhstan.

Apparently there is alot of shit happening there right now.

Kazakhstan trouble may even be Bitcoin related only 39 days ago was this story


The fuel price being the reason is just another big fat media lie. Currently the 9th cheapest and used to be the 10th cheapest in the world.
Norway is also a oil producer, with significant differant fuel price. Norway is a large energy producer, one of the world's largest exporters of oil.
$ 0.468 03-Jan-2022 https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
Some randomly picked dates
$ 0.463 on 25-Oct-2021 https://web.archive.org/web/20211029050804/https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
$ 0.490 on 13-Aug-2018  https://web.archive.org/web/20180820035358/https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
(Was the 15th cheapest in the world  on 14-Aug-2017.)

Kazakhstan is now free of Covid, no more Covid policies, vaccine mandates or other such nonsense.

[OgNasty]

It looks like we're at a somewhat crucial moment for the price as far as the trend is concerned.  I think a break below $42K would look pretty bad on a chart and send some people heading for the hills.  Maybe that's what this market needs for the next leg up, but it appears the bears are at the cusp of claiming a pretty large victory.  The volume spike as we touched $42,500 makes it seem like we're due for a bounce today, but with the financial markets spooked by inflation and covid along with the Fed talking about raising rates earlier than expected and it seems like we may be in for a rough patch.

[somac.]

It looks like we're at a somewhat crucial moment for the price as far as the trend is concerned.  I think a break below $42K would look pretty bad on a chart and send some people heading for the hills.  Maybe that's what this market needs for the next leg up, but it appears the bears are at the cusp of claiming a pretty large victory.  The volume spike as we touched $42,500 makes it seem like we're due for a bounce today, but with the financial markets spooked by inflation and covid along with the Fed talking about raising rates earlier than expected and it seems like we may be in for a rough patch.

I posted the picture above showing illiquid supply, long-term holders at least are buying this dip and I don't think a break below 42k will change that. It seems to me that this is all Fed and traditional market driven, and yes it could easily push us lower just like we went lower in March 2020. Time will tell, but I'm certainly not liking how things are going so far.

But let's not lose sight of what this is, it is a massive opportunity for those with long term vision who still want to buy.

[aesma]

Bought the mofo dip.

Another 200 Big Mac Meals worth.

How much is that ? Google tells me 5.99$ but I don't remember it being that low when I visited the US (don't know where you are).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1478824091654115329?s=21

The stockmarket is overvalued and cash gets inflated away. I'm not very hopeful for any of this for the coming years, but so far Bitcoin has outperformed them. There's not really an alternative anyway.

It's always win-win situation for the bitcoin and rest continue to rise with their over hypeness but btc growth is indispensable :

See how gold is maintaining his pace of giving negative returns to holders each year and still it's safe heaven for some.

Buy bitcoin because it's still undervalued compared to all others that will not give you much returns and future safety.