Bitcoin Forum
February 07, 2023, 10:31:47 PM *
News: Community Awards results
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 38 (25.2%)
2024 - 59 (39.1%)
2025 - 40 (26.5%)
2026 - 4 (2.6%)
2027 - 2 (1.3%)
After 2027 - 3 (2%)
Never - 5 (3.3%)
Total Voters: 151

Pages: « 1 ... 30031 30032 30033 30034 30035 30036 30037 30038 30039 30040 30041 30042 30043 30044 30045 30046 30047 30048 30049 30050 30051 30052 30053 30054 30055 30056 30057 30058 30059 30060 30061 30062 30063 30064 30065 30066 30067 30068 30069 30070 30071 30072 30073 30074 30075 30076 30077 30078 30079 30080 [30081] 30082 30083 30084 30085 30086 30087 30088 30089 30090 30091 30092 30093 30094 30095 30096 30097 30098 30099 30100 30101 30102 30103 30104 30105 30106 30107 30108 30109 30110 30111 30112 30113 30114 30115 30116 30117 30118 30119 30120 30121 30122 30123 30124 30125 30126 30127 30128 30129 30130 30131 ... 31871 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26004672 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Mbitr
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1285


Defend PoW: https://bitcoincleanup.com #EndTheFUD


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 08:41:06 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), JayJuanGee (1)

D’oh !  Shocked



https://twitter.com/goingparabolic/status/1479189396880609285?s=21
"Bitcoin: the cutting edge of begging technology." -- Giraffe.BTC
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
1675809107
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1675809107

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1675809107
Reply with quote  #2

1675809107
Report to moderator
1675809107
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1675809107

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1675809107
Reply with quote  #2

1675809107
Report to moderator
1675809107
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1675809107

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1675809107
Reply with quote  #2

1675809107
Report to moderator
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3248
Merit: 7801


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 08:48:00 PM

Remember all those wyckoff accumulation charts we saw in last year's mid year dip. It proved to be correct, I haven't seen any such analysis getting around now but things look similar. Has anybody seen any of that analysis done on this dip?

I seem to remember someone posting about it some days ago, basically saying that it looks good.

I was posting about it before when it looked like wyckoff accumulation on the 4hr chart, though unconfirmed, but this structure has now been broken with the recent drop:

Posting this again for some New Year Hopium. Recent bounce from $46K still looking like a "spring" for Wyckoff accumulation, even more so after creating new closing low on 4hr:


Based on the current price structure, it doesn't look like wyckoff to me, at least not on a line chart. On a candle chart, we'd be in Phase B at best, prior to creating a lower low:



As for current outlook, I'm personally not seeing $40K-$46K range as providing much support given the volume gap, even if a dead cat bounce could occur from here at any moment:



The $42.5K level is merely a "last line in the sand" before lower lows, similarly to how $46K acted as such after failing to find support and getting rejected by $48K MA support. The 0.236 fib retracement around $38K where volume lies and previous VPVR point of control around $33K-35K is more likely where a macro higher low would form imo, while taking more weeks to get there. Daily RSI is bearish, but not even oversold yet (like back in May) for reference sake, the Weekly RSI hasn't even turned bearish yet, as food for thought. There's plenty for room to the downside if price strength continues to weaken basically.

Ultimately price closed below the 50 Week MA again and the bears followed through, breaking both support trend-lines, as well as MA support. Doesn't look great to me anymore to put it simply. At least the on-chain data still looks good, but price structure looks pretty f**ked now. Truth is, Bitcoin has never been continually traded below the 50 Week MA within a bull market, so best to hope for in the mid-term would be further consolidation at higher levels. Still not seeing any argument for $20K-$25K levels, even if entirely possible now (70% drop from high to low), but otherwise not seeing any buyers at current prices either.

Ideally price drops hard and we get the crash over and done with as quickly as possible, somewhat regardless of how low it goes, rather than f**king around in no mans land. Just my opinion anyway.

Hahahahaha

I sent you a merit anyhow, even though I believe that you are overly pessimistic regarding the power of king daddy and the various fake outs.. ... and sure, you gave some good descriptions regarding your views and how you arrived at your views.. nonetheless, it seems to me that we have been here so many damned times that it is not even funny, and even AlcoHoDL's earlier post comparing early 2017 sentiment seemed to have similar kinds of technical arguments going on regarding the ONLY way is down.. blah blah blah.. I recall similar in April/May 2020 too (including the well-reasoned arguments that we would not likely see supra $10k for a couple more years).. and those guys did not do too well in terms of supra $10k coming a few months later, and then we know what ended up happening between September 2020 and April 2021, right?

Anyhow, fuck that nonsense regarding price analysis is bleak blah blah blah.. but yeah, if it goes down, buy some more (if you dare).. and even buy some here (if you dare), it will likely pay off quite well in the coming 1-9 months, and if 1-9 months does not work out, at least it should be good 4-10 years down the road (as a back up plan in case the next 1-9 months do not work out so well).

So I'm watching as the price keeps bouncing off the $42.5k support level. When things are going the other way and repeatedly bouncing off a resistance level, it means to sell at that resistance expecting to buy lower because it's very likely to break through and leave you holding less.

Am I reading this wrong in thinking I should hold off a bit longer to buy a dippier dip? My DCA isn't due until tomorrow anyway, so kinda asking for support for resisting a reverse FOMO buy. (I have occasionally pulled the trigger on DCA buys a day early beat out a weekend pump) I'm just not used to Downs yet as I'm still a bit new at this.

I doubt that any of us can really know with any level of high confidence.... although admittedly I am likely NOT the best person to ask .. even though I have my systems for buying, when I am in buying mode... which is a tendency to spread things out.. but of course, if you had not bought for a while, then you might get nervous about not having had bought any in the lower $40ks... or only bought a little.

Sometimes if you are worried, then you might just do half or a third of the amount that you expect early.. just to hedge.
log2exp
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 161
Merit: 109


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 08:50:52 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), matt4054 (3), JayJuanGee (1)


In which country it is already Jan 8th, 2022, as of right now, it's only Jan 6th 3:50pm EST. Is he a time traveler?
Mbitr
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1285


Defend PoW: https://bitcoincleanup.com #EndTheFUD


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 08:58:02 PM


In which country it is already Jan 8th, 2022, as of right now, it's only Jan 6th 3:50pm EST. Is he a time traveler?
Nice spot Smiley They must be time travellers  Smiley Still time to apply for a job  Smiley
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1708
Merit: 1503


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 09:01:37 PM


Explanation
psycodad
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1515
Merit: 1345


精神分析的爸


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 09:04:04 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), BobLawblaw (2), Mbitr (1), OutOfMemory (1)


@Bob: Year of the crab? Waddayamean?

Not trying to answer on behalf of Bob, but I understood it as reference to the sideways movement of crabs..

Ever seen Dr. Zoidberg getting agitated? That's where I myself learned about it  Cheesy



serveria.com
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 1087


Balls of steel. This time is different.


View Profile WWW
January 06, 2022, 09:14:08 PM


In which country it is already Jan 8th, 2022, as of right now, it's only Jan 6th 3:50pm EST. Is he a time traveler?

FUD fail  Grin
suchmoon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3304
Merit: 8462


https://bpip.org


View Profile WWW
January 06, 2022, 09:44:43 PM


In which country it is already Jan 8th, 2022, as of right now, it's only Jan 6th 3:50pm EST. Is he a time traveler?
Nice spot Smiley They must be time travellers  Smiley Still time to apply for a job  Smiley

It says nothing about posting Bitcoin-related memes, so most people in this thread will be fine even after Jan 8.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1708
Merit: 1503


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 10:01:27 PM


Explanation
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3290
Merit: 2814



View Profile
January 06, 2022, 10:08:41 PM

OT..: from reddit: W--mart "meta"-verse:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/rxlxzp/walmarts_metaverse_looks_sick/
matt4054
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1904
Merit: 1025


cryptoscaper.com


View Profile WWW
January 06, 2022, 10:17:22 PM

In my experience, when the prices are falling all around the place, developers wake up from natural bull-market-induced laziness and come up with great new products. Not only ideas and hype, but actual implementations. I for one am looking forward to ETH2 going live, and all the rest of the major milestones to come in 2022.

Keep your spirits high folks Smiley
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1708
Merit: 1503


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 11:01:27 PM


Explanation
Gachapin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 462
Merit: 859


bitcoin retard


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 11:44:01 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

In my experience, when the prices are falling all around the place, developers wake up from natural bull-market-induced laziness and come up with great new products. Not only ideas and hype, but actual implementations. I for one am looking forward to ETH2 going live, and all the rest of the major milestones to come in 2022.

Keep your spirits high folks Smiley



Wow...that's cool. I didn't know ETH - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology is opening a 2nd campus...
Valuable info, thanks !  Smiley
matt4054
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1904
Merit: 1025


cryptoscaper.com


View Profile WWW
January 06, 2022, 11:48:31 PM

Wow...that's cool. I didn't know ETH, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology is opening another campus...
Valuable info, thanks !

Just to be clear I'm talking about ETH2, the next gen evolution of Ethereum that will make it scale like big time! I don't want to say more since you might be familiar with it already, I guess most readers of this thread are, but if you don't, it's worth a few minutes to Google it Smiley

About the ETH, I know we like on the same spinning rock of the milky way, but are you from Switzerland by any chance? Grin

I am developing something right now which will hopefully eventually turn out just great.

Cheers!
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3248
Merit: 7801


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 11:51:57 PM

So I'm watching as the price keeps bouncing off the $42.5k support level. When things are going the other way and repeatedly bouncing off a resistance level, it means to sell at that resistance expecting to buy lower because it's very likely to break through and leave you holding less.

There are generally two schools of thought with the repeated tests of support or resistance. The first being the more you test a level the weaker it becomes, the latter being the more you test a level the stronger it becomes. Personally I think the price structure is more relevant to answer this. Is price creating lower highs/lows while doing so, and therefore price is getting weaker, or higher lows/highs with price getting stronger?

I think more relevant in this case, given you talk of DCA, is to ignore the lower time-frames here, as they are not relevant to the longer term trend. Ideally ignore price all together when you DCA, stick to time-based analysis. Price could be up significantly by the end of the week, it could also be lower by next week. Likewise price could be lower by tomorrow and significantly higher by the end of the week.

Am I reading this wrong in thinking I should hold off a bit longer to buy a dippier dip? My DCA isn't due until tomorrow anyway, so kinda asking for support for resisting a reverse FOMO buy. (I have occasionally pulled the trigger on DCA buys a day early beat out a weekend pump) I'm just not used to Downs yet as I'm still a bit new at this.

If your DCA is due tomorrow, not today, then I'd recommend buying tomorrow - because that's when your DCA is due. Rushing in to buy falling knives is always very risky move. This will also help to maintain your disciple with DCA. If you start buying early, you're also likely to be buying late, therefore trying to trade price instead of time. I imagine JJG will otherwise give you all the relevant info on dollar cost averaging...

I am surely of the opinion that if you have either a weekly DCA allowance or even a DCA allowance that is employed every two weeks (something like every paycheck could be every two weeks), then you could set up both strictness and flexibility - of course, sometimes it will end up costing more if you split the DCA - so for example $100 or $200 per period might end up getting split as $20s or $50s or $100s or whatever.  So, if you are not penalized with fees, then the main other penalty would just be that you are spending time on the matter, which may or may not be a good use of time, including that you could just end up out-thinking yourself. 

Largely in my first year of bitcoin, I authorized myself with a weekly allowance, so frequently, I would buy manually every week and attempt to be strategic about my buys in the week - whether or not I was able to stack a few extra sats in the whole attempts to be strategic might really not be that big of a deal in the whole scheme of things, even though I know the feelings that newbies have to attempts to get the most bang for their buck and also to attempt to avoid and/or minimize fees... I had some of those kinds of ways of thinking about the matter, so in some sense it made me feel good to 1) have a weekly BTC buying allowance, 2) attempt to be strategic within the week to get better prices when possible and 3) largely make sure that I spent the whole allowance by the end of the week.. absent maybe rare carry overs.. but mostly I would spend the whole of each week's allowance each week.

I had other portions of my cashflow that I dedicated to lump sum investing and also buying on dips, so I did have some funds that I kept in reserves for such purposes, or if new funds were to come in (some kind of a surprise cashflow of $1,200 for example), then I might immediately divide the new and unexpected $1,200 into
those three categories... for example.. lump sum invest immediately with $400 (1/3), plug $400 (1/3) into my DCA system (based on time of course.. maybe add $20 per week for the next $20 weeks or $80 per week for the next 5 weeks) and plug $400 (1/3) into my buy on dip budget (ladders - which might be spread out to buy every 5% drop in price or some other increment of comfort... so I could spread them through the whole ladder or just strategically pick some price points to add the $400.. whether adding to $20 to 20 buy points or $100 to 4 buy points or some other increment that would be of comfort to me).
Gachapin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 462
Merit: 859


bitcoin retard


View Profile
January 06, 2022, 11:54:12 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5)

Wow...that's cool. I didn't know ETH, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology is opening another campus...
Valuable info, thanks !

Just to be clear I'm talking about ETH2, the next gen evolution of Ethereum that will make it scale like big time! I don't want to say more since you might be familiar with it already, I guess most readers of this thread are, but if you don't, it's worth a few minutes to Google it Smiley

About the ETH, I know we like on the same spinning rock of the milky way, but are you from Switzerland by any chance? Grin

I am developing something right now which will hopefully eventually turn out just great.

Cheers!


I'm sorry you didn't get it. But never mind...
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1708
Merit: 1503


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
January 07, 2022, 12:01:36 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3248
Merit: 7801


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
January 07, 2022, 12:14:16 AM

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't know if you are correct regarding the top is already in.. yeah we have a bit of a moving target, but I am still thinking that the odds are against the top being in.. so less than 50/50.. so I view a bit of a problematic angle to your speculation when you are asserting the top to already be in with such seemingly high level of confidence..

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't believe it will take that long.

My energy provider just now emailed me asking me to lock in my energy prices for the next 3 years.

They LITERALLY quoted £300 / $400 per month. More than double of what I pay now.
They reckon that is going to be a "good deal".  Shocked

The true realities of inflation are going to come to light this year I reckon.

We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

I cannot really disagree with you regarding your assessment that ongoing money printing and unsoundness of money is likely going to lead to even more extreme clownishness.. and perhaps even various kinds of moves of desperation.

Of course, your energy provider is wanting to front load to some degree, so it pays for your energy provider to lock you in to double prices, and sure they may well end up being right, but I bet that they wrote the contract in such a way that it does not matter if they are right about the future prices, you are responsible for such speculation that they want you to take while paying them in advance.

Regarding the end of the cycle, you do seem to premature in such speculation.. so I would speculate that the odds are against you, and for sure, it is not easy to proclaim what would end up being a correct assertion, especially if we end up getting something that kind of looks like a cycle, but ends up not really being a cycle, then both of us could end up claiming that we were correct.. you saying that the cycles have ended and my unwillingness/refusal to give up upon such cycles just yet....

....and by the way, I give few shits about whether I am correct or not, because so far in my bitcoin life, I have NOT played such nonsense in terms of trying to time bigger sales towards the top, and so I am not really sure if I am going to change my ways... Probably, if we were to experience up to about $250k in the coming 1-9 months, I am not going to really deviate from my already existing system too much; however, if we were to get into the $600k to $1.5 million in the coming 1-9 months.. or maybe dragging out into 2023, I may well play something like that a little BIGGER than my already existing system suggests.  Now price tops of $250k to $600k might be a bit more ambiguous regarding whether I might need to make some adjustments to the amount that I expect to sell on the way there (if we were to get there in the coming 1-9 months).. so could be a product of price and time in terms of if the whole matter is looking/feeling like a blow off top (again if we go there, which sounds like wishful thinking but still seems to me to be good to prepare for these kinds of possibilities, even if they might seem pretty damned low on the probability scale).
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1708
Merit: 1503


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
January 07, 2022, 01:01:28 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3248
Merit: 7801


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
January 07, 2022, 01:02:00 AM

Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology. Smiley

I admit that my buy orders run out at $20k, so it would be a bit of a dilemma for me.. regarding if BTC prices were to go down that low.. .and I have even been giving some thoughts of pulling some of my buy orders between $20k and $27k.. and hopefully that would not be too fool-hardly.. so in that regard, if BTC prices were to stay below $20k for more than a couple of weeks, there might be some questions regarding the overall investment thesis..  
 Of course, getting below $27k and staying there for a bit of time, even a few months would not be completely out of the realm of possibilities, but that also seems like a bit of a long shot scenario that may well put some aspects of bitcoin's investment thesis into question...  

I will believe it when I see it (that is if I see it), and surely there would be some need for analysis and maybe even trouble shooting regarding how some of the financial instruments are being used.. and maybe even perhaps some needs for the community to reassess if there might be some  higher (considerably?) value that is needed to be given to coins in your possession and if there might be some weirdness going on with attempts to debase bitcoin like had been done to gold and really seems to be a lot more difficult to achieve in bitcoin, especially if people (HODLers) are recognizing the value of directly holding their keys and pulling them away from third parties if there seems to be too much fuckery going on in regards to seeming inflation of the BTC supply (which is likely already happening, but it remains questionable whether such fuckery is really going to be able to keep King Daddy down).

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,


We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

Well said mister bunny…..
I share the same thinking, cycle’s are a thing of the past…

OutOfMerit….

"No more cycles" seems to be rising to the level of contagious in the WO..

Gonna have to clone some batmans for some serious slappenings if the virus does not stop, soontm.

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

#nohomo

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't believe it will take that long.

My energy provider just now emailed me asking me to lock in my energy prices for the next 3 years.

They LITERALLY quoted £300 / $400 per month. More than double of what I pay now.
They reckon that is going to be a "good deal".  Shocked

The true realities of inflation are going to come to light this year I reckon.

We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

Pretty much so. With major institutional investors NOT selling how much more can we dive? Just to remind you - we're about 40% from ATH already.

I don't see many of those whining tweets and posts anymore - ooohh guys I took a loan, sold my wife, kids and kidney and invested everything in Bitcoin now I'm broke fuck Bitcoin and please help me (Bitcoin ruined my life)!!!  Grin  

Oh my.. is that another "disappearance of the cycle" theory?... gonna need some gloves (just to protect from the chafe)..


and oh my.. the children!!!!!!

How many BTC do you need?

Maybe 2.9? or perhaps 3.1..?  or let's just ballpark the amount to be at 3 BTC, no?  

That would be a reasonable amount for some of us to help you to achieve your target(s), right?  Like manna from heaven... .even better than getting it from Santa, sir?
Pages: « 1 ... 30031 30032 30033 30034 30035 30036 30037 30038 30039 30040 30041 30042 30043 30044 30045 30046 30047 30048 30049 30050 30051 30052 30053 30054 30055 30056 30057 30058 30059 30060 30061 30062 30063 30064 30065 30066 30067 30068 30069 30070 30071 30072 30073 30074 30075 30076 30077 30078 30079 30080 [30081] 30082 30083 30084 30085 30086 30087 30088 30089 30090 30091 30092 30093 30094 30095 30096 30097 30098 30099 30100 30101 30102 30103 30104 30105 30106 30107 30108 30109 30110 30111 30112 30113 30114 30115 30116 30117 30118 30119 30120 30121 30122 30123 30124 30125 30126 30127 30128 30129 30130 30131 ... 31871 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!