Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[phoenix1]

Sounds like some Hero accounts here are being sold or becoming weak hands. I don't know, and I don't care  

LOL!! Is that the party-line now? No, my account is in the same hands it has always been in ...
I'm just not a bulltard, that's all. I see plenty of potential in crypto, I also believe that I see plenty of delusion and wishful thinking too
Only time will tell  

This is a community of sharks and bait- if you have not realised that by now you are a fool (bait). Does not mean there is not a lot a money to be made in crypto, just make sure you don't get eaten along the way  

[brg444]

I kinda agree with you... When I started learning about Bitcoin I was also like: "Fuck this is going to take over the hole universe, here you have all my worthless FIAT money..."

But the more you understand the world around bitcoin, the more you should become disillusioned about bitcoin as a competitor to the traditional finance system. It is maybe better for a online payment system... But there is no REAL problem with the traditional Kredit-Card / PayPal /Skrill / SEPA system...

Sure Bitcoin is currently cheaper from a retailer point of view but someone has to pay the system in order to maintain it. I mean if you leave out the Blockreward subvention a TX would cost about 50$...

You should maybe read this

The main things that Bitcoin offers over the traditional fiat monetary instruments are: a fixed economic base3, uninterdictable transactions and unfreezable funds, and an immutable history of all transactions that have ever taken place, secured by proof of work on the technical side and mutually-assured-destruction on the game theory side.

Bitcoinating very specifically has nothing to do with: making people rich by virtue of holding bitcoin keys, "banking the unbanked", processing as many transactions as Visa, or any of the other entirely orthogonal concerns USG muppets routinely trot out in vain attempts to undermine the thing in the way they've become accustomed to coopting other "open source" projects like GPG and OpenSSL.

http://cascadianhacker.com/blog/2015/04/24_bitcoin-needs-no-changes-to-destroy-your-world.html

[Gyrsur]

Someone see bitcoin surpassing 300$ in August?

This days it was near but it could not break that barrier

it looks like that we will see the price above 300 in august.

chart pattern is called  Ascending Triangle.

[Norway]

Sounds like some Hero accounts here are being sold or becoming weak hands. I don't know, and I don't care  

LOL!! Is that the party-line now? No, my account is in the same hands it has always been in ...
I'm just not a bulltard, that's all. I see plenty of potential in crypto, I also believe that I see plenty of delusion and wishful thinking too
Only time will tell  

This is a community of sharks and bait- if you have not realised that by now you are a fool (bait). Does not mean there is not a lot a money to be made in crypto, just make sure you don't get eaten along the way  

Ok, becoming weak hands it is  

EDIT: Or becoming bait, lol!

[phoenix1]

Sounds like some Hero accounts here are being sold or becoming weak hands. I don't know, and I don't care  

LOL!! Is that the party-line now? No, my account is in the same hands it has always been in ...
I'm just not a bulltard, that's all. I see plenty of potential in crypto, I also believe that I see plenty of delusion and wishful thinking too
Only time will tell  

This is a community of sharks and bait- if you have not realised that by now you are a fool (bait). Does not mean there is not a lot a money to be made in crypto, just make sure you don't get eaten along the way  

Ok, becoming weak hands it is  

If that presumption makes you feel better, roll with it ... you are very clever, you will definitely win this game, remember that 

[Greendragon]

Sounds like some Hero accounts here are being sold or becoming weak hands. I don't know, and I don't care  

LOL!! Is that the party-line now? No, my account is in the same hands it has always been in ...
I'm just not a bulltard, that's all. I see plenty of potential in crypto, I also believe that I see plenty of delusion and wishful thinking too
Only time will tell  

This is a community of sharks and bait- if you have not realised that by now you are a fool (bait). Does not mean there is not a lot a money to be made in crypto, just make sure you don't get eaten along the way  

Ok, becoming weak hands it is  

If that presumption makes you feel better, roll with it ... you are very clever, you will definitely win this game, remember that 

legendary members losing fait..
bullish

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Norway]

I did the math 5 months ago. Posted it here before, but I think it's time to do it again:

[phoenix1]

If that presumption makes you feel better, roll with it ... you are very clever, you will definitely win this game, remember that  

legendary members losing faith..
bullish

Thanks for the compliment - I'm only 'Hero' actually, nice to be called Legendary tho

Losing faith .. no. Open-minded, yes. Try it ... tunnel vision is a painful affliction. If you cannot see the corporations doing what they can to find ways to use private blockchains, and that there is a very valid use case for this then you are a blind fool.
BTC is very different and many more factors will determine the outcome of this particular game-winthin-a-game. And if you cannot see the conflicts of interst already rearing their heads within the BTC sphere then you are also blind. There are no guarantees and if you enter into it with anything but this perspective, then you, sir, are an idiot

EDIT: and there we go, rght on cue, Norway posting the 'IF' chart, the one that inspires dreams of wealth and fortune ... you could be a timeshare salesman Norway  

BTW, where is the one for 'IF BTC goes to zero you lose everything', and where are the probabilities you asign to each outcome as any rational person ought to if using such charts as guidance? Without them, its just 'bait'

[Norway]

If that presumption makes you feel better, roll with it ... you are very clever, you will definitely win this game, remember that  

legendary members losing faith..
bullish

Thanks for the compliment - I'm only 'Hero' actually, nice to be called Legendary tho

Losing faith .. no. Open-minded, yes. Try it ... tunnel vision is a painful affliction. If you cannot see the corporations doing what they can to find ways to use private blockchains, and that there is a very valid use case for this then you are a blind fool.
BTC is very different and many more factors will determine the outcome of this particular game-winthin-a-game. And if you cannot see the conflicts of interst already rearing their heads within the BTC sphere then you are also blind. There are no guarantees and if you enter into it with anything but this perspective, then you, sir, are an idiot

EDIT: and there we go, rght on cue, Norway posting the 'IF' chart, the one that inspires dreams of wealth and fortune ... you could be a timeshare salesman Norway 

IF you want a current update on private blockchains, watch this: (Yes, I obviously have to quote myself from just a few posts back...)

Hi guys, back from holiday!
Did you see this clip from American Bankers Digital Currencies + the Blockchain Conference?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Clc3ZOP2zUo

The funniest part is at 46:10 where Chris DeRose ask Blythe Masters two questions, lol!

[Gyrsur]

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/051414/could-one-bitcoin-come-be-worth-1-billion-qa.asp

[gentlemand]

You'd be a silly sausage to bet your future on the basis of a mythical outcome. Similarly you'd be somewhat daffy to be fully aware of its potential implications and not have a scrap or two of skin in the game.

There are vested interests frothing away at both ends of the spectrum. Take what you wish from either but find your own balance that takes every scenario into account and stick to it.

[phoenix1]

You'd be a silly sausage to bet your future on the basis of a mythical outcome. Similarly you'd be somewhat daffy to be fully aware of its potential implications and not have a scrap or two of skin in the game.

There are vested interests frothing away at both ends of the spectrum. Take what you wish from either but find your own balance that takes every scenario into account and stick to it.

Nice summary gentlemand 
Sometimes less words say more 

[Norway]

You'd be a silly sausage to bet your future on the basis of a mythical outcome. Similarly you'd be somewhat daffy to be fully aware of its potential implications and not have a scrap or two of skin in the game.

There are vested interests frothing away at both ends of the spectrum. Take what you wish from either but find your own balance that takes every scenario into account and stick to it.

Nice summary gentlemand 
Sometimes less words say more 

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol 

[gentlemand]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol 

Hmm. I often wonder...

[phoenix1]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

[Norway]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

It's just so weired to me. Where have you been the last six months, phoenix1? Don't you read the news? Can't you see how big bucks are entering the scene? How finance are looking at bitcoin today? Today, I get bank CEOs to attend my bitcoin meetups. Do you really believe the odds for bitcoins failiure have increased the last months? (And please, watch the clip i posted from American Bankers Conference to get updated on the perimissioned / non permissioned ledgers debate in banking industry.)

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[phoenix1]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

It's just so weired to me. Where have you been the last six months, phoenix1? Don't you read the news? Can't you see how big bucks are entering the scene? How finance are looking at bitcoin today? Today, I get bank CEOs to attend my bitcoin meetups. Do you really believe the odds for bitcoins failiure have increased the last months? (And please, watch the clip i posted from American Bankers Conference to get updated on the perimissioned / non permissioned ledgers debate in banking industry.)

I've been watching, Norway.
Don't you read the news? Have you not seen how long price and fundamentals can remain detached (at least 10 years and counting for the global economy)? Why do you believe BTC is so fundamentally different that the same detachment cannot occur for a prolonged period of time? Particualrly considering it is a nascent technology fighting to earn trust. It is yet to even prove that it can scale successfully without tearing itself apart.

No, I don't belive the odd's of BTC's failure have increased over the last 6 months. Neither do I see it's chances of becoming a 'reserve currency' having increased either (I see that as a real 'tail' event in any scenario). It's likely to become 'something'. At the moment I don't honestly know what that 'something' is.

Markets can remain detached from fundamentals much longer than investors can remain solvent and right now, I think we are still in the 'chasm' on that tech adoption chart, with investors desperately trying to find a way to get consumers interested and spending big bucks to do it.
Will they succeed? I don't know. Will blockchains become useful to private businesses - almost certainly. Does this mean that BTC will thrive as a mainstream payment mechanism - I have no idea. Will it take so long that it is superceded ... possibly.

So, no Norway, I am not living in a cave, I am just keeping an open mind and watching things develop without the 'I'm gonna be a millionaire' mantra in my head. I am more interested in seeing how things evolve than in monetary wealth.

Most people are still so dumb that they don't even realise what money is, how it is created, or how they are being robbed. It might take a generation for this sort of change to come about. ie, they die off and are replaced by (hopefully) more intelligent people.

I also believe that whilst there are governments BTC is totally vulnerable to government taxation/confiscation due to the cenralisation of devs and miners. If there is a bail in of depositors on their bank accounts it really is not hard to see how this could be applied equally to BTC if it is seen as 'worthwhile'. IMO best we are still flying under the radar on that day ... and yes, I believe that day is coming

I am not however gonna sit here and preach that anyone is gonna get rich buying BTC now or that it is going to change the world. Crypto is not going away, BTC - who knows. Place your bets ... on one hand it some sort of revolution, on the other it seems like a great way for govs to track everything we do. The latter is not a scenario I will support.

And having worked in the financial servies indusrty I KNOW that we are years away from incorportaing complex derivatives onto 'the blockchain'. Not only would it be technically extrememly difficult, but this is also where all the 'off balance sheet' transactions occur and it will be fought tooth and nail. Stock ownership using satoshis is trivial by comparison. Lets see how Nasdaq Private Market gets on first before drawing any conclusions about how deep 'this blockchain' can permeate.

[bassclef]

No surprise that the bears are out trying to short the rally that is bringing the seven month accumulation and bear market to an end. The problem here for them is that overall, the "team" involved with Bitcoin right now is relatively small after the long bear market and the public disinterest associated with falling prices. The bearish subdivision of this team is even smaller. This makes downward market movements have low volume and without a large effect on price: There is simply not enough selling to overcome whatever demand has been left over and the price tends to drift upwards. Once a little demand is added the price will want to enter a very clean and extended rally.

Think of the bear market as making the bears' team roster smaller and smaller over time as the overarching supply (left over from those who bought during the top distribution and the panic selling that comes along with lower prices) that kept the price down is gradually absorbed at lower and lower prices. A bull market is the opposite and does the same with bulls: Their team gets smaller as the buying climax approaches and demand begins to dry up. This is when most people are the most bullish, but in reality there is tremendous supply being thrown at the market from the informed interests who bought near the bottom and the high prices cannot be sustained. There are important psychological factors at work as to why this happens, e.g. the weak hands who buy near the top and get burned who panic sell during a selling climax at a loss, and the panic buying of those on the sidelines during a buying climax who cannot stand to see their friends getting rich without them.

The market price of any asset is unpredictable to most because they attempt to fit it into their view of what the underlying asset (in this case Bitcoin) should be instead of what it is and think that the fundamentals should always be reflected in the market during price discovery. This is overcomplication. The only reliable market predictions are made by studying supply and demand removing imperfect human opinion, expectation and hyperbole.

There comes a time in every asset and every market where supply has dried up to a degree that the price can rise easily--the end of a bear market. There also comes a time where demand dries up, causing the price to fall easily--the end of a bull market. There are also people who understand this dynamic, long-term relationship, how it effects human emotions and attempt to profit from it. This is largely the reason why many stocks and securiteis do not always reflect their "fundamental" value (whatever that is) so humans attempt to search out positive or negative news to fit their view of why the price is rising or falling.