Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Andre#]

seemingly the same amounts being sold & bought repeatedly

Ye I just saw that. Broken bot or volume manipulation ?

Funny whether other exchanges will follow, or we end up stuck in the mid-$230s... then over the weekend, isnt there more likely fuel for dumping rather than pumping?  Then we will be back to $227-ish?

If you look at the volume on a larger scale it actually looks like massive volumes of BTC were purchased on Bitstamp. still theres no telling if its real or fake.

If its real then some massive companies are accumulating tens of thousands of coins (the volume on bitstamp would actually be unbelievable in this case and bitfinex would no longer be the largest exchange).
If its fake, then who is paying the trading fees and why? or is bitstamp themselves faking the volume like the chinese exchanges always do?

Bitfinex isn't the largest exchange for a while anymore:
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

In the past 30 days Bitstamp had almost twice the volume of Bitfinex.

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[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[findftp]

I've said it before, and I say it again:
I'd rather have 10 bitcoin bought at 1000 USD, than 1 bitcoin bought at 1 cent. Buy and hold, CCMF!

This remains an interesting mathematical proposition concerning how high BTC is going to go..... and your frame at this point seems to be expecting BTC north of $10k... which well could be the case, in a few years... but a lot of us lose some of that faith with such a prolonged bear market including such a long flat period, too.... and even several apparent false restarts and turn arounds...

Bootstrapping a global currency/comodity takes some time.
You can't expect it to be spread around the world in one week.

I fully agree, better 10 in the red than 1 in the green.

[noobtrader]

According to ecoin.eu charts at the moment, the price are good and might continue to rise for awhile. Or am I wrong?

The price has risen 6-8 USD in the last day or two but I don't know if we'll continue to see an upwards price movement sorry. I certainly hope so, even breaking 250 would seem good at the moment.

lets see how world perception has changed...

last year :
http://invezz.com/news/forex/8310-bitcoin-usd-provokes-scepticism-at-davos-world-economic-forum

this year :
http://www.coindesk.com/world-economic-forum-governments-blockchain/

[jertsy]

seemingly the same amounts being sold & bought repeatedly

Ye I just saw that. Broken bot or volume manipulation ?

Funny whether other exchanges will follow, or we end up stuck in the mid-$230s... then over the weekend, isnt there more likely fuel for dumping rather than pumping?  Then we will be back to $227-ish?

If you look at the volume on a larger scale it actually looks like massive volumes of BTC were purchased on Bitstamp. still theres no telling if its real or fake.

If its real then some massive companies are accumulating tens of thousands of coins (the volume on bitstamp would actually be unbelievable in this case and bitfinex would no longer be the largest exchange).
If its fake, then who is paying the trading fees and why? or is bitstamp themselves faking the volume like the chinese exchanges always do?

I noticed there are lots of little trades backwards and forwards for small amounts like 0.05 BTC on Bitstamp. They can be bought and sold back again in the space of minutes. It often looks like the work of bots to me, and I often wonder if Bitstamp themselves control the bots. 0.05 BTC is only worth $12, and I doubt their are hundreds of traders all furiously trading such small amounts. I suspect most exchanges use bots to inflate their daily volume.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[tarmi]

bitstamp got the biggest volume thanks to 49 & 98 bot

[600watt]

had sold some around 274 & went back all-in today.

which means price can tank violently now.

 

[gizmoh]

bitstamp got the biggest volume thanks to 49 & 98 bot

Right. Surely bitstamp admins trying to lure in traders since the Bitfinex engine issue.

Basically Volume is pathetic everywhere.

[oda.krell]

bitstamp got the biggest volume thanks to 49 & 98 bot

Been wondering about that one ever since [forgot who posted about it the last time in here] mentioned it a while ago...

In principle, I can think of the following explanations:

(a) Bot buying, outside motivation, i.e. automatic buying/selling based on 'external' (i.e. price independent) supply/demand. Could be operated by stamp itself, or by an external account.

(b) Bot buying, trading, i.e. some of the capital that operates bots and that so far was mainly active on finex or the CNY exchanges moved to stamp

(c) Bot buying, exchange internal, i.e. fraudulous, or at least highly dubious. In that case, it could be either to pump price (less likely, imo), or to create volume out of thin air to make stamp more attractive to traders (still morally bad, but not as bad as the first one). The latter might also cost the operators a bit of actual money, since the bot might not operate to create a profit, but only aims to create volume 'profit neutral' -- which, ultimately, might still be profitable via increased fees from new traders attracted by the volume.

Any additions? Did I forget an option?

Also, please don't tell me why "Clearly, option X is the *only* reasonable explanation", or "Option Y is ridiculous". From what I can tell, the three above are in principle possible, and compatible with what I observe myself.

And option (c) is rather speculative at the moment in my opinion, and I only mention it because it seems in principle /possible/, though I consider it /unlikely/, given how there's major outside investment in stamp, and they'd likely be liable if it would take place and came out at some point. Contrast stamp with mtgox, which seemed a lot more hermetically sealed off.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[tarmi]

I think that market maker is counting on people following bitstamp as the most reliable and indicative exchange in terms of price. Remember, there is no margin trading on bitstamp and exchange operators are not cooking and manipulating the order books. They applied for bitlicense.

So all the trading the bot is doing back and forth at its own expense is to make other people feel like there is some real demand coming from the real world. I think they are luring more people into buying while the market makers are unloading their highly leveraged bags on other exchanges.

[Tzupy]

had sold some around 274 & went back all-in today.

which means price can tank violently now.
 

No it can't tank "now", because in 12h time frame the PSAR is bullish and price hugs the upper BB, also 1d PSAR may flip to bullish today, in which case 260$ is possible.

[a7mos]

I think if the price continues raising to 240 today it may reach 300 levels in next few weeks

[marcus_of_augustus]

I think if the price continues raising to 240 today it may reach 300 levels in next few weeks

... it seems likely. This will be 3rd and decisive challenge on 300, this time on rising volume too I expect.

[oda.krell]

I think that market maker is counting on people following bitstamp as the most reliable and indicative exchange in terms of price. Remember, there is no margin trading on bitstamp and exchange operators are not cooking and manipulating the order books. They applied for bitlicense.

So all the trading the bot is doing back and forth at its own expense is to make other people feel like there is some real demand coming from the real world. I think they are luring more people into buying while the market makers are unloading their highly leveraged bags on other exchanges.

I like that. So, profit neutral bot trading locally, for nonlocal profits.

One problem I can see with this: Creating the impression of buying while unloading yourself, by my impression, is the less common strategy in this market. Much more likely, imo, to see a good old pump (and then, dump, for profit), i.e. start the pump on some good news, paint the book and place some strategic buys, then, when the enthusiasm runs dry, dump before other traders do. Which doesn't fit here (unloading while the trend is still intact)

I guess the strategy here could be the case of a whale who bought massively at the sub-200 bottom, but doesn't plan to hold on to it, unloading slowly now. That what you have in mind, roughly?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think if the price continues raising to 240 today it may reach 300 levels in next few weeks

I'm doubtful about 300 being reached in the next couple of days, 250 is possible.
What I don't want is another failed assault on 300 which isn't sustainable & the price then falls to like 220 again.

I'd be happy to meet 250-260 & stay there for a few weeks, volatile prices aren't good.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[DeathAngel]

Bitcoin price getting higher, probably reach 240 tonight

[tarmi]

I think that market maker is counting on people following bitstamp as the most reliable and indicative exchange in terms of price. Remember, there is no margin trading on bitstamp and exchange operators are not cooking and manipulating the order books. They applied for bitlicense.

So all the trading the bot is doing back and forth at its own expense is to make other people feel like there is some real demand coming from the real world. I think they are luring more people into buying while the market makers are unloading their highly leveraged bags on other exchanges.

I like that. So, profit neutral bot trading locally, for nonlocal profits.

One problem I can see with this: Creating the impression of buying while unloading yourself, by my impression, is the less common strategy in this market. Much more likely, imo, to see a good old pump (and then, dump, for profit), i.e. start the pump on some good news, paint the book and place some strategic buys, then, when the enthusiasm runs dry, dump before other traders do. Which doesn't fit here (unloading while the trend is still intact)

I guess the strategy here could be the case of a whale who bought massively at the sub-200 bottom, but doesn't plan to hold on to it, unloading slowly now. That what you have in mind, roughly?

Remember, the bot is not buying, just creating an impression of a sudden rise of volume in a place that matters. 98 coins bought and after a minute or two sold even for a 1~2 $ loss. I guess someone used bitstamp's 0 fee promotion in september to pump up the volume for his accounts and get the lowest possible fees this month for that kind of operation.

I for one bought massively at sub 180 at bitfinex. I moved those hefty profits to bitstamp asap. So I wouldn't call that exactly unloading, but distribution. Another round is coming soon.