Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philip2000uk]

^OK.

Hey, how come nobody's talkin' 'bout this?

https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-core/2016-01-07-statement

It's like you all just up and forgot how to appreciate Blockstream!

hahahahaha...


The reason is because, for some strange reason, the one instrument marching band, BJA, has disappeared from this thread and has NOT been trolling in recent days.

He (BJA) is probably out trying to figure out his story in order to make a come back and to tell us about his having had made "mucho bucks" in the latest BTC price movement because of our small blocker stupidities.

don't worry.. i got the trash talking covered while he is away .

I made a few bucks lending out my fiat to bulls. The interest rate has shot up.  Look, I don't know for sure if we're going to get a network congestion crash, but it's a very real risk.  I have a higher percentage of my net worth in BTC than almost anybody else here. I HOPE I'm wrong, but it's just plain irresponsible not to factor in the danger when we are running so close to maximum capacity and getting closer every day.

The Blockstream core devs have an incentive to overstate the problems with large blocks. They have an incentive to restrict network capacity and keep it congested. That doesn't automatically mean that they are acting on those incentives, but if they are, it would explain a lot of their actions and rhetoric.

What I am more worried about is the possibility that there is an ongoing rough consensus attack that will keep ANY resolution from being implemented until Bitcoin loses first mover advantage. But I guess it doesn't ultimately matter if the impasse is intentional or not. What matters is whether or not Bitcoin is really anti-fragile, and that is unknown at this point.

I don't know what you just said lol...anyway btc to the moon

I'm saying the transaction relay network may crash when it gets so close to full capacity that transactions fail, get repeatedly resubmitted which makes the congestion and failure rate worse, and this condition will remain until there is a market crash and enough people stop using Bitcoin to clear the backlog. If this happens in conjunction with the high profile launch of a competing cryptocurrency, it may be enough to overcome Bitcoin's network effects and turn us into the MySpace of crypto. 

Thank you 

[bitebits]

What is "69% full" ?

I am sorry but we are not supposed to talk about full blocks on this forum. If you however rephrase your question to 31% empty, then I am able to help.

[soullyG]

Cheap coins 

[spud21]

Already 94 bitpay nodes!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/3zzkqg/bitpay_core_v1299_already_at_94_nodes_and_counting/

So now, we have 570 bitcoin XT nodes, 120 Bitcoin Unlimited nodes, 94 bitpay nodes and 5000 bitcoin core nodes. Great.

WTF is a bitpay node? Has bitpay started up its own version of the Bitcoin wallet? What's the differences between bitcoin XT nodes, Bitcoin Unlimited nodes, bitpay nodes, and bitcoin core nodes?

I know XT wants massive blocks if enough people use it, but I don't know what the other two contender wallets want.

Did you enjoy living under a rock for such a long time?  

Anyway, welcome back.

Well gentlemand is a hero and he doesn't know what a bitpay node is, and I'm only senior. Fortuitously Fatman3001 read an explanation by brg444 who said they want kill all the firstborn. Gentlemand came to the conclusion that bitpay is coming to his shack to strangle his kitten, so it must be an evil node.

Can you add to our knowledge about WTF a bitay node is?

I think brg444 said something about them wanting to destroy the world with their multiculturalist marxist agenda. And kill all the firstborn.

I don't know what this Bitpay node is, but if it's in any way a threat to our benign Core Masters then I can categorically state that Bitpay came around my shack and strangled my kitten. It hasn't happened yet but in a sense it already has and it definitely will. FACT.

[Andre#]

Welcome to the Red Zone!

[JimboToronto]

Cheap coins  

Yep. Only $450. Anything under $700 could probably be considered cheap.

Remember when $32 was the ATH?  

Edit: With this post I see I finally became Legendary. I was wondering when it was gonna kick in.

I realize it's "random" but it was getting annoying to see people with activity levels under 800 becoming legendary while I was approaching 1000 and still only a Hero.

I guess it really is random. I was wondering if it had anything to do with the fact that I seldom post outside Speculation.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Andre#]

Already 94 bitpay nodes!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/3zzkqg/bitpay_core_v1299_already_at_94_nodes_and_counting/

So now, we have 570 bitcoin XT nodes, 120 Bitcoin Unlimited nodes, 94 bitpay nodes and 5000 bitcoin core nodes. Great.

WTF is a bitpay node? Has bitpay started up its own version of the Bitcoin wallet? What's the differences between bitcoin XT nodes, Bitcoin Unlimited nodes, bitpay nodes, and bitcoin core nodes?

I know XT wants massive blocks if enough people use it, but I don't know what the other two contender wallets want.

Did you enjoy living under a rock for such a long time?  

Anyway, welcome back.

Well gentlemand is a hero and he doesn't know what a bitpay node is, and I'm only senior. Fortuitously Fatman3001 read an explanation by brg444 who said they want kill all the firstborn. Gentlemand came to the conclusion that bitpay is coming to his shack to strangle his kitten, so it must be an evil node.

Can you add to our knowledge about WTF a bitay node is?

Ok then.

"A Simple, Adaptive Block Size Limit"


https://medium.com/@spair/a-simple-adaptive-block-size-limit-748f7cbcfb75#.7m37712tl

[nioc]

Already 94 bitpay nodes!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/3zzkqg/bitpay_core_v1299_already_at_94_nodes_and_counting/

So now, we have 570 bitcoin XT nodes, 120 Bitcoin Unlimited nodes, 94 bitpay nodes and 5000 bitcoin core nodes. Great.

WTF is a bitpay node? Has bitpay started up its own version of the Bitcoin wallet? What's the differences between bitcoin XT nodes, Bitcoin Unlimited nodes, bitpay nodes, and bitcoin core nodes?

I know XT wants massive blocks if enough people use it, but I don't know what the other two contender wallets want.

Did you enjoy living under a rock for such a long time?  

Anyway, welcome back.

Well gentlemand is a hero and he doesn't know what a bitpay node is, and I'm only senior. Fortuitously Fatman3001 read an explanation by brg444 who said they want kill all the firstborn. Gentlemand came to the conclusion that bitpay is coming to his shack to strangle his kitten, so it must be an evil node.

Can you add to our knowledge about WTF a bitay node is?

I think brg444 said something about them wanting to destroy the world with their multiculturalist marxist agenda. And kill all the firstborn.

I don't know what this Bitpay node is, but if it's in any way a threat to our benign Core Masters then I can categorically state that Bitpay came around my shack and strangled my kitten. It hasn't happened yet but in a sense it already has and it definitely will. FACT.

Well I'm legendary and I know less than everybody.  I just realized today that uniform means one form.

I'm relieved that I am not first born although that kitten thing does have me concerned.

I am still hodling although I am no longer accumulating.  Large but undefined expenses are looming.

[billyjoeallen]

Remember when $32 was the ATH?  

Yeah, that was back when the average blocksize was less than 10% of capacity.

[soullyG]

Yep. Only $450. Anything under $700 could probably be considered cheap.

Remember when $32 was the ATH?  

Sadly not, I got into the game a bit too late for that, but I'll definitely be around for the next ATH!

[Fatman3001]

Cheap coins  

Yep. Only $450. Anything under $700 could probably be considered cheap.

Remember when $32 was the ATH?  

Edit: With this post I see I finally became Legendary. I was wondering when it was gonna kick in.

I realize it's "random" but it was getting annoying to see people with activity levels under 800 becoming legendary while I was approaching 1000 and still only a Hero.

I guess it really is random. I was wondering if it had anything to do with the fact that I seldom post outside Speculation.

You've always been legendary in my eyes. But what happened to the coffee-gasms you used squirt all over the WO thread?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[suda123]

^OK.

Hey, how come nobody's talkin' 'bout this?

https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-core/2016-01-07-statement

It's like you all just up and forgot how to appreciate Blockstream!

hahahahaha...


The reason is because, for some strange reason, the one instrument marching band, BJA, has disappeared from this thread and has NOT been trolling in recent days.

He (BJA) is probably out trying to figure out his story in order to make a come back and to tell us about his having had made "mucho bucks" in the latest BTC price movement because of our small blocker stupidities.

don't worry.. i got the trash talking covered while he is away .

I made a few bucks lending out my fiat to bulls. The interest rate has shot up.  Look, I don't know for sure if we're going to get a network congestion crash, but it's a very real risk.  I have a higher percentage of my net worth in BTC than almost anybody else here. I HOPE I'm wrong, but it's just plain irresponsible not to factor in the danger when we are running so close to maximum capacity and getting closer every day.

The Blockstream core devs have an incentive to overstate the problems with large blocks. They have an incentive to restrict network capacity and keep it congested. That doesn't automatically mean that they are acting on those incentives, but if they are, it would explain a lot of their actions and rhetoric.

What I am more worried about is the possibility that there is an ongoing rough consensus attack that will keep ANY resolution from being implemented until Bitcoin loses first mover advantage. But I guess it doesn't ultimately matter if the impasse is intentional or not. What matters is whether or not Bitcoin is really anti-fragile, and that is unknown at this point.

I don't know what you just said lol...anyway btc to the moon

I'm saying the transaction relay network may crash when it gets so close to full capacity that transactions fail, get repeatedly resubmitted which makes the congestion and failure rate worse, and this condition will remain until there is a market crash and enough people stop using Bitcoin to clear the backlog. If this happens in conjunction with the high profile launch of a competing cryptocurrency, it may be enough to overcome Bitcoin's network effects and turn us into the MySpace of crypto.  

i have already prepared for such an eventuality. it probably won't be a new coin, instead it might be an already established coin that steals the limelight.

Which alt coins have that probability?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JimboToronto]

what happened to the coffee-gasms you used squirt all over the WO thread?

It seemed to piss too many people off so I didn't bother any more.

It was usually all about trying to stay awake when we were going sideways so often people posted GIFs of tumbleweeds.

Coffee is just a crack-of-noon wakeup drink for me anyway. After happy hour it's strictly booze, preferably Guinness Extra Stout.

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks for all the replies. Well, I wish I would have listened to my intention and bought Facebook stocks on day 1. Instead, I listened to others again. When it comes to diversification, I only know the usual suspects. Gold, wich is in the hand of the US government and they manipulate the price how they like. Same goes on with silver. And any other usual investment is controlled by the governments. So I only see BTC as independent at the moment.

60% in BTC, yeah thats a lot. And maybe you all are right. It is more then enough. But it bothers me to keep the rest of my money in FIAT at home. I don´t trust any banks. Gold, I would like to buy some gold and store it at home. But there is no profit with gold. And about other investments, I have no idea.

Actually, if you have that much cash liquid...sign up at localbitcoins to buy/sell bitcoins for a profit. Start earning money on your holdings.

I agree...

There are ways to put your cash to work, without getting so anxious about having some cash that may seem as if it is not working (because it is merely in reserve for wider downward price swings, for example).

So for example, underdog 81 could allocate the cash towards buying at certain strategic points...

Let's say for example, Underdog 81 has about 100 bitcoins and about $20k in cash, but he does not have any other investments.


I don't really have any major problem with someone who doesn't want to invest in stocks or gold or real estate... Actually bitcoin gives quite a bit of flexibility to trade whenever a guy wants, and there are ways in which the fees can be near or close to zero in bitcoin, as compared with some other mainstream investments.


Accordingly, underdog 81 should figure that for every dollar bitcoin goes up, his total BTC portfolio value goes up $100... accordingly, if BTC goes up $10, then his BTC portfolio goes up $1000... There's a lot that can be worked from that framework... and he should not be conceiving that he will get more rich if he invests all of his fiat in BTC because, there would likely be too much stress and resentment if the BTC market works against him.


Accordingly, underdog81 could stagger his cash allocation to invest in $5 or $10 increments.. and maintain some flexibility.  For example, he could invest into BTC approximately $500 for every $5 that BTC prices go down, and sell $200 for every $10 that it goes up.. (and don't be too rigid).

There are a lot of ways to tweak the preallocated numbers too, especially a person does not want to be too rigid especially if he is pretty sure that he can buy BTC cheaper in the next few hours or sell higher in the next few hours (or even days); however, at the same time, a guy doesn't want to become too greedy either, so needs to lock in the buy or the sell at certain points when the price direction may be changing, even if it is not at the exact top or bottom of the price swing... and there is no need to catch every price swing either because it is good to have "a life" even when trading the BTC price swings... it certainly should become easier after some practice and there are ways to learn to leave orders open when the market leaves you behind in either direction, because each of your BTC trades are not a high percentage of your total BTC holdings...

And, with such a strategy, underdog81 should be able to build both fiat and BTC... in the long run, as long as don't get too whimsical in strategies or greedy.   Oh, and sometimes in that regard, a person needs to have enough patience to wait out the price to let the price come to him or just to let it slide when the price seems to be going in the opposite direction... just sell at a higher price or buy at a lower price... when the price moves against you.. in order to make up for the still open position.

[JimboToronto]

Congrats Jimbo!!!

Thanks bro.

[tomothy]

what happened to the coffee-gasms you used squirt all over the WO thread?

It seemed to piss too many people off so I didn't bother any more.

It was usually all about trying to stay awake when we were going sideways so often people posted GIFs of tumbleweeds.

Coffee is just a crack-of-noon wakeup drink for me anyway. After happy hour it's strictly booze, preferably Guinness Extra Stout.

Hey Jimbo, Any thoughts on how long we'll move sideways now? Also would you care to comment and throw in a few bits regarding core/blocksize/bitpay/coinbase current loggerjam/loggerhead? not sure which its supposed to be with regards to above term lol. Thanks.

[JayJuanGee]

Another possibility, with a little creativity (and reasonable planning) there could be an attempt to maintain the approximate same level of investment into BTC versus fiat within about 5% and then buy BTC on the way down and sell on the way up, which if played properly and systematically  (maybe a big "if"?) would likely increase BTC and fiat holdings over time and make the overall
portfolio a bit less risky.

This is what I would be thinking. Aim for 60% in BTC and diversify the other 40 into other things. Though it's difficult to know what these days.

If Bitcoin rises a lot, however, might want to consider letting that sit somewhere above 60% though.

For older peeps, such as me, I came into bitcoin, and I already had quite a bit of fiat-dependent investments, so when I got into bitcoin, I was strategizing to place a lot of my new available money into BTC (and that was meant to cause to diversify the various holdings that I already had). 

I understand that some other people come into bitcoin, and they may not have too many fiat based investments, and when you are young, you may be o.k. to take some risks, especially with something like BTC, but it seems very stressful, to me, if the asset is not performing too well, and you don't have anything else.

Also, following my earlier post from a few minutes ago, trading the larger swings, could also cause a certain amount of hedging.. but it could become a little bit time consuming to set up various trading strategies and then to monitor the progress of such trading strategies (in those cases in which a person doesn't really want to invest in other assets).