Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

It sure is nice, sitting here lending out my fiat at >%20 annual return. I don't have to worry about dumps, crashes, hard forks or network congestion failures.  I don't care if it goes up, either, because that just boosts the interest rate I get paid. 

Will you shut up already.  Just the other day you were whinging about having your life savings tied up in the market, mere weeks after you claimed you had sold off most of your coins and working on the rest.

You're full of shit and not fooling anyone.

JJG's would have taken like 22 pages to say that.

Now, I am getting pissed off at BMB... he's exaggerating.   


I could have easily said more or less the same thing in less than 5 pages.   

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://medium.com/@bramcohen/bitcoin-s-ironic-crisis-32226a85e39f#.sie1emacg

In the long term the mining rewards for bitcoin will go away completely (there’s a strict schedule for this) and all that’s left will be transaction fees. Attempting to ‘solve’ the problem of transaction fees would in the long run undermine the security of Bitcoin even if it were done perfectly.

The problem of transaction fees will in the long run be solved by the free (not fee!) market. Once the subsidy for miners subsides, they will have to make a living with fees. So they'll have an incentive to sell blockspace at a competitive price. It's too early for this now, since the subsidy is still so much bigger than the fees.

Even the EU stopped capping milk production (done out of fear milk would become too cheap for the farmers to make a living). And Core wants to be the central planner of the tx production quotum? Get real.

I agree with you. But it seems like any hard fork is going to be contentious. Near unanimous agreement by everyone involved won't happen until there's a fire. Smoke won't cut it.

[JayJuanGee]

My educated guess is that $400 will not be breached. We might touch it briefly, but I am not 100% sure.
However, I opened a new short position at $390. I like my odds from there because the trend is down (my opinion).

Whether the trend is up or down depends upon your starting point..., no?

He is a day trader, staring at the minute candles. With bitcoin's extreme volatility (percentage wise) you really have to zoom out (and have a strong stomach).

Still crossing my fingers for your magic $502 JJG, still holding those ~210 coins?

Stop with your patronizing white knighting bullshit.  Merely because someone may have possibly acquired coins cheaper than someone else or may have a lower dollar cost average for his BTC purchases, and maybe even has been involved in trading BTC longer doesn't necessarily make them any kind of expert in knowing the price direction of BTC, especially if they are failing to explain and failing/refusing to recognize that bitcoin seems to have transitioned out of a bear market and into a bull market. 

Whether BTC prices are transitioning back into a bear market is still to be determined, yet I believe the probabilities from the upper $300 price range are greater than not that we are still in a bull market and more likely to have a sustained upturn of 20% rather than a sustained downturn of 20%


Yes, I have disclosed a considerable amount of information regarding my various past BTC positions, but that does not make me lacking in knowledge merely because I have been accumulating BTC, and since about October 2015 I have begun to buy and sell bitcoin (rather than just accumulating BTC), which to date, since October has brought down my average price per BTC from $502 to about $478.. and in the meantime my BTC portfolio is better positioned with cash on both sides and a larger quantity of BTC and more dollars in my BTC trading accounts. 

I am not claiming to be any kind of expert regarding trading or knowing the price direction, but I am attempting to do what i think is best for my own position in light of the totality of my various investments, including but not limited to BTC investments. 

I don't recall disclosing exactly my quantity of coins, but I acquired more than 2/3 of my coins during 2014, and I accumulated around 5% more coins since I started trading in October.. while increasing my cash reserves.. but overall the quantity of my trades still remains fairly limited amount of my total BTC portfolio, with less than 10% of my BTC at stake at any point in time, yet I anticipate increasing the percentage of BTC that I will put into play with the passage of time, and likely as I continue to bring down my average price per BTC in my portfolio.   

So are you saying that we are going down, and I should sell a bit more... ha hahaha... what fucking looney to attempt to judge what someone else should be doing.

[Fatman3001]

https://medium.com/@bramcohen/bitcoin-s-ironic-crisis-32226a85e39f#.sie1emacg

In the long term the mining rewards for bitcoin will go away completely (there’s a strict schedule for this) and all that’s left will be transaction fees. Attempting to ‘solve’ the problem of transaction fees would in the long run undermine the security of Bitcoin even if it were done perfectly.

The problem of transaction fees will in the long run be solved by the free (not fee!) market. Once the subsidy for miners subsides, they will have to make a living with fees. So they'll have an incentive to sell blockspace at a competitive price. It's too early for this now, since the subsidy is still so much bigger than the fees.

Even the EU stopped capping milk production (done out of fear milk would become too cheap for the farmers to make a living). And Core wants to be the central planner of the tx production quotum? Get real.

I agree with you. But it seems like any hard fork is going to be contentious. Near unanimous agreement by everyone involved won't happen until there's a fire. Smoke won't cut it.

Ok, then. I had to try.

[AlexGR]

It's funny how the dev side has more small blockers, while the speculation side is almost entirely large blockers nowadays.  Why is this?  Because the dev side doesn't understand markets.  

XT fork news and classic fork news have both sent price lower. The markets were going pretty well despite the "fullblockalypse" bullshit. 200->300->400->450 - even 500+ for a while. For the most part, everyone had priced in that an upgrade will be implemented at some point and all will be well. The moon was the limit. The core roadmap was in the same line.

-Violent hard forks with low consensus that will split the currency / double the monetary supply / create distrust for the future of the currency for possible future forking events
-governance coups,
-dividing the community and throwing around "bitcoin is dead" to the mainstream media

...are not by any means "market-friendly".

Plus driving out the bulk of current developers, who are actually developing solutions, and pretending to be the ultra-dev for changing a 1MB constant to 2MB, and leaving bitcoin development AND MAINTENANCE, orphan for the future, is not "bullish" by any standard.

And if Satoshi's warning is true that in case of a successful fork he'll be forced to declare Bitcoin a failure (I would probably disassociate my name as well after a hostile takeover and admit defeat) then we have a real problem ahead of us.

No, the "classic" people do not understand markets, unless their purpose is to destroy bitcoin - in which case they understand markets pretty well.

[JayJuanGee]

There does seem to be a considerable tendency in this thread to get caught up on the big block small block discussions, which I suppose has some relation to the walls, but from time to time does get to be a bit much... and even seemingly tangentially related to wall observer speculations...  rather than some more relevant discussion regarding  putting forth various price theory and wall speculations.


Really, I was of the opinion that we were probably not going to witness prices below $390.. and even reaching as low as $351 was a bit of a surprise...   and certainly, we are not out of danger yet of potentially even lower prices in the coming days.....

If we could get a fairly volume heavy rebound above $410-ish, I would feel a bit better in assessing $351 as the bottom.

You know why we dropped so low? It was because we hit a wall. Perhaps not the walls we are observing in this thread most of the time, but a wall  nevertheless. A ladder has been put up against this wall, and it now looks we will be able to get over it. Hence, the price is rising again.

Sometimes, you have to look a bit further to find the explanations you seek.

I don't think that reasons are as clear as you are making them out to be... surely, there may be some truth in what you are saying, but it really sounds like you are just describing some kind of correlation rather than clear and convincing causation... after the fact descriptions can seem convincing, but they are not always accurate in terms of describing actual causation rather than pointing out various correlations.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://medium.com/@bramcohen/bitcoin-s-ironic-crisis-32226a85e39f#.sie1emacg

In the long term the mining rewards for bitcoin will go away completely (there’s a strict schedule for this) and all that’s left will be transaction fees. Attempting to ‘solve’ the problem of transaction fees would in the long run undermine the security of Bitcoin even if it were done perfectly.

The problem of transaction fees will in the long run be solved by the free (not fee!) market. Once the subsidy for miners subsides, they will have to make a living with fees. So they'll have an incentive to sell blockspace at a competitive price. It's too early for this now, since the subsidy is still so much bigger than the fees.

Even the EU stopped capping milk production (done out of fear milk would become too cheap for the farmers to make a living). And Core wants to be the central planner of the tx production quotum? Get real.

I agree with you. But it seems like any hard fork is going to be contentious. Near unanimous agreement by everyone involved won't happen until there's a fire. Smoke won't cut it.

Ok, then. I had to try.

It's some pretty cold turkey. 

[ChartBuddy]

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[BlindMayorBitcorn]

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[bitebits]

So are you saying that we are going down, and I should sell a bit more... ha hahaha... what fucking looney to attempt to judge what someone else should be doing.

Must be that English is not my first language, neither my second. I was (trying to) positively cheer for you bitcoin reaching 502$ so you are in the green as well, and only envy your considerable stake. No harm intended and good for you that you managed to get your average price down while only trading with 10% of your stash.

Edit: for the record, I do not trade at all. Cold storage + small amounts for weekly / monthly usage.

[Fatman3001]

So are you saying that we are going down, and I should sell a bit more... ha hahaha... what fucking looney to attempt to judge what someone else should be doing.

Must be that English is not my first language, neither my second. I was (trying to) positively cheer for you bitcoin reaching 502$ so you are in the green as well, and only envy your considerable stake. No harm intended and good for you that you managed to get your average price down while only trading with 10% of your stash.

Edit: for the record, I do not trade at all. Cold storage + small amounts for weekly / monthly  usage.

There's nothing wrong with your english. Half this forum should be on meds.

[macsga]

There's nothing wrong with your english. Half this forum should be on meds.

That's an underestimation. I'd say the WHOLE forum would be more accurate. 

[Fatman3001]

There's nothing wrong with your english. Half this forum should be on meds.

That's an underestimation. I'd say the WHOLE forum would be more accurate. 

Wooow, colors man!

[ChartBuddy]

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[Hyperjacked]

BTC has 99 problems and I'm not one of them...

If the core devs don't mesh it could eventually melt down... IMHO 

[noobtrader]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

patel prediction... wow  right on target    350 reached few hours ago.

im still waiting for moon

[GreekGeek]

So when will the hard fork take place ?

[uqaz]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

patel prediction... wow  right on target    350 reached few hours ago.

im still waiting for moon

jan 14 + 6 months <> jan15

[ChartBuddy]

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[mOgliE]

The run-up from 360 to 380 looked somewhat weird, have a feeling its not going to last that long and 350 will be retested again. Just seems way to easy for now.

You may be right. The down trend had some facts to back it up. No reason to see it stop quick. Just wait for a few days we'll reach 350 then, and we'll buy everything we can!