Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[Andre#]

It's funny how the dev side has more small blockers, while the speculation side is almost entirely large blockers nowadays.  Why is this?  Because the dev side doesn't understand markets.  People evaluate stocks by things like cash on hand and future expansion prospects.  If blocks are full, this is bad for speculators because you're no longer getting price appreciation from increased utility, but relying entirely on things like Gresham's law to push the price up for your artificial scarcity tokens with people hoarding it.

Relying on price appreciation through artificial scarcity of coin count and block space is a magician's trick.  It may or may not work, because as we all know, things like Litecoin and a million other altcoins exist.  No matter what you believe is the proper technical solution to the problem, the wise speculator, economist, or even honest human being is going to prefer to increase price via increased utility rather than increase solely by trying to recruit people to invest more.  If you're not increasing utility, that's the point where it does turn into kind of a scheme.  Unless you're going to try and claim the markets currently have vastly undervalued Bitcoin, but that's a different argument.

Things like Lightning Network will increase utility a lot by increasing throughput, the only problem is, it's currently nowhere to be seen.  People demand an increase in utility now, otherwise they feel stupid to invest or tell others to do so because it seems like a greater fool theory when utility is not increasing.  This is what the devs do not understand, and Segwit is kinda too little, too late.  This is the reason why I believe the blockchain does need an increase, to allow expansion until something like Lightning Network is released (assuming it works).

The bottom line is, due to the factors cited above, an increase in block size can really only be beneficial for price, assuming it didn't infringe upon decentralization, and you would need very big blocks to centralize things more in comparison to the size of mining pools that already exist.  Whether you're trying to avoid the greater fool theory, or if all you care about is making money and don't give a shit about anything else, you're going to be in the large(r) block camp.

Interesting observation. I also wondered why the smallblockers have no problem with a central planning of the tx quotum. But software engineers are actually central planners by profession. More market oriented people understand better that limiting usage of Bitcoin now will not help it grow. You can't just say "hey, we need an extra year for implementing LN, can you all take a break?". You'll lose the momentum.

[Karartma1]

Markets are reacting well after the drop, hopefully we are going up to 400$ soon.
The Bitcoin rollercoaster is here to stay and is not going anywhere.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

It sure is nice, sitting here lending out my fiat at >%20 annual return. I don't have to worry about dumps, crashes, hard forks or network congestion failures.  I don't care if it goes up, either, because that just boosts the interest rate I get paid.  

How much did you buy your account from the original owner for? I don't remember you being that emotional nor negative.

I actually remember him as being more emotional, but squarely in the bull camp.  I even think I like the "new" (don't think he sold his account) BJA better.

[JayJuanGee]

i called this one prett fucking good

[http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitfinexUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=6-hour&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&[/img]

and i have the profits to prove it.

k so lets start up that Choo Chooooooo MOTHER FUCKERS  

I know you were sweating your balls off, and that may be part of the reason that you were absent for a few weeks....

Again.. hopefully, you learned your lesson (while profitting).....      

i wasn't sweating my balls off, i've been doing good... i was writing a bot, which was has turn out nicely he is busy scraping 1% while helping me manage my position. just needs a few tweets

Also, don't be waiting for $330 because it seems to be too risky of a proposition.. at least at the moment.

if it hits 333$ ill be buying

i'm more or less closed my position now.

opening a long  



... and Boy could i go looong, swinging in fiat right now Muhahahahaha

Well sounds like you are doing pretty good then... and surely, if you are able to intervene with a bit of automation, that can be very helpful, especially if you can largely get it to conform with your parameters and you have limits that  account for wild unexpected turns in the market.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

It sure is nice, sitting here lending out my fiat at >%20 annual return. I don't have to worry about dumps, crashes, hard forks or network congestion failures.  I don't care if it goes up, either, because that just boosts the interest rate I get paid. 

Will you shut up already.  Just the other day you were whinging about having your life savings tied up in the market, mere weeks after you claimed you had sold off most of your coins and working on the rest.

You're full of shit and not fooling anyone.

JJG's would have taken like 22 pages to say that.

Now, I am getting pissed off at BMB... he's exaggerating.   


I could have easily said more or less the same thing in less than 5 pages.   

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://medium.com/@bramcohen/bitcoin-s-ironic-crisis-32226a85e39f#.sie1emacg

In the long term the mining rewards for bitcoin will go away completely (there’s a strict schedule for this) and all that’s left will be transaction fees. Attempting to ‘solve’ the problem of transaction fees would in the long run undermine the security of Bitcoin even if it were done perfectly.

The problem of transaction fees will in the long run be solved by the free (not fee!) market. Once the subsidy for miners subsides, they will have to make a living with fees. So they'll have an incentive to sell blockspace at a competitive price. It's too early for this now, since the subsidy is still so much bigger than the fees.

Even the EU stopped capping milk production (done out of fear milk would become too cheap for the farmers to make a living). And Core wants to be the central planner of the tx production quotum? Get real.

I agree with you. But it seems like any hard fork is going to be contentious. Near unanimous agreement by everyone involved won't happen until there's a fire. Smoke won't cut it.

[JayJuanGee]

My educated guess is that $400 will not be breached. We might touch it briefly, but I am not 100% sure.
However, I opened a new short position at $390. I like my odds from there because the trend is down (my opinion).

Whether the trend is up or down depends upon your starting point..., no?

He is a day trader, staring at the minute candles. With bitcoin's extreme volatility (percentage wise) you really have to zoom out (and have a strong stomach).

Still crossing my fingers for your magic $502 JJG, still holding those ~210 coins?

Stop with your patronizing white knighting bullshit.  Merely because someone may have possibly acquired coins cheaper than someone else or may have a lower dollar cost average for his BTC purchases, and maybe even has been involved in trading BTC longer doesn't necessarily make them any kind of expert in knowing the price direction of BTC, especially if they are failing to explain and failing/refusing to recognize that bitcoin seems to have transitioned out of a bear market and into a bull market. 

Whether BTC prices are transitioning back into a bear market is still to be determined, yet I believe the probabilities from the upper $300 price range are greater than not that we are still in a bull market and more likely to have a sustained upturn of 20% rather than a sustained downturn of 20%


Yes, I have disclosed a considerable amount of information regarding my various past BTC positions, but that does not make me lacking in knowledge merely because I have been accumulating BTC, and since about October 2015 I have begun to buy and sell bitcoin (rather than just accumulating BTC), which to date, since October has brought down my average price per BTC from $502 to about $478.. and in the meantime my BTC portfolio is better positioned with cash on both sides and a larger quantity of BTC and more dollars in my BTC trading accounts. 

I am not claiming to be any kind of expert regarding trading or knowing the price direction, but I am attempting to do what i think is best for my own position in light of the totality of my various investments, including but not limited to BTC investments. 

I don't recall disclosing exactly my quantity of coins, but I acquired more than 2/3 of my coins during 2014, and I accumulated around 5% more coins since I started trading in October.. while increasing my cash reserves.. but overall the quantity of my trades still remains fairly limited amount of my total BTC portfolio, with less than 10% of my BTC at stake at any point in time, yet I anticipate increasing the percentage of BTC that I will put into play with the passage of time, and likely as I continue to bring down my average price per BTC in my portfolio.   

So are you saying that we are going down, and I should sell a bit more... ha hahaha... what fucking looney to attempt to judge what someone else should be doing.

[Fatman3001]

https://medium.com/@bramcohen/bitcoin-s-ironic-crisis-32226a85e39f#.sie1emacg

In the long term the mining rewards for bitcoin will go away completely (there’s a strict schedule for this) and all that’s left will be transaction fees. Attempting to ‘solve’ the problem of transaction fees would in the long run undermine the security of Bitcoin even if it were done perfectly.

The problem of transaction fees will in the long run be solved by the free (not fee!) market. Once the subsidy for miners subsides, they will have to make a living with fees. So they'll have an incentive to sell blockspace at a competitive price. It's too early for this now, since the subsidy is still so much bigger than the fees.

Even the EU stopped capping milk production (done out of fear milk would become too cheap for the farmers to make a living). And Core wants to be the central planner of the tx production quotum? Get real.

I agree with you. But it seems like any hard fork is going to be contentious. Near unanimous agreement by everyone involved won't happen until there's a fire. Smoke won't cut it.

Ok, then. I had to try.

[AlexGR]

It's funny how the dev side has more small blockers, while the speculation side is almost entirely large blockers nowadays.  Why is this?  Because the dev side doesn't understand markets.  

XT fork news and classic fork news have both sent price lower. The markets were going pretty well despite the "fullblockalypse" bullshit. 200->300->400->450 - even 500+ for a while. For the most part, everyone had priced in that an upgrade will be implemented at some point and all will be well. The moon was the limit. The core roadmap was in the same line.

-Violent hard forks with low consensus that will split the currency / double the monetary supply / create distrust for the future of the currency for possible future forking events
-governance coups,
-dividing the community and throwing around "bitcoin is dead" to the mainstream media

...are not by any means "market-friendly".

Plus driving out the bulk of current developers, who are actually developing solutions, and pretending to be the ultra-dev for changing a 1MB constant to 2MB, and leaving bitcoin development AND MAINTENANCE, orphan for the future, is not "bullish" by any standard.

And if Satoshi's warning is true that in case of a successful fork he'll be forced to declare Bitcoin a failure (I would probably disassociate my name as well after a hostile takeover and admit defeat) then we have a real problem ahead of us.

No, the "classic" people do not understand markets, unless their purpose is to destroy bitcoin - in which case they understand markets pretty well.

[JayJuanGee]

There does seem to be a considerable tendency in this thread to get caught up on the big block small block discussions, which I suppose has some relation to the walls, but from time to time does get to be a bit much... and even seemingly tangentially related to wall observer speculations...  rather than some more relevant discussion regarding  putting forth various price theory and wall speculations.


Really, I was of the opinion that we were probably not going to witness prices below $390.. and even reaching as low as $351 was a bit of a surprise...   and certainly, we are not out of danger yet of potentially even lower prices in the coming days.....

If we could get a fairly volume heavy rebound above $410-ish, I would feel a bit better in assessing $351 as the bottom.

You know why we dropped so low? It was because we hit a wall. Perhaps not the walls we are observing in this thread most of the time, but a wall  nevertheless. A ladder has been put up against this wall, and it now looks we will be able to get over it. Hence, the price is rising again.

Sometimes, you have to look a bit further to find the explanations you seek.

I don't think that reasons are as clear as you are making them out to be... surely, there may be some truth in what you are saying, but it really sounds like you are just describing some kind of correlation rather than clear and convincing causation... after the fact descriptions can seem convincing, but they are not always accurate in terms of describing actual causation rather than pointing out various correlations.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://medium.com/@bramcohen/bitcoin-s-ironic-crisis-32226a85e39f#.sie1emacg

In the long term the mining rewards for bitcoin will go away completely (there’s a strict schedule for this) and all that’s left will be transaction fees. Attempting to ‘solve’ the problem of transaction fees would in the long run undermine the security of Bitcoin even if it were done perfectly.

The problem of transaction fees will in the long run be solved by the free (not fee!) market. Once the subsidy for miners subsides, they will have to make a living with fees. So they'll have an incentive to sell blockspace at a competitive price. It's too early for this now, since the subsidy is still so much bigger than the fees.

Even the EU stopped capping milk production (done out of fear milk would become too cheap for the farmers to make a living). And Core wants to be the central planner of the tx production quotum? Get real.

I agree with you. But it seems like any hard fork is going to be contentious. Near unanimous agreement by everyone involved won't happen until there's a fire. Smoke won't cut it.

Ok, then. I had to try.

It's some pretty cold turkey. 

[ChartBuddy]

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[BlindMayorBitcorn]

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[bitebits]

So are you saying that we are going down, and I should sell a bit more... ha hahaha... what fucking looney to attempt to judge what someone else should be doing.

Must be that English is not my first language, neither my second. I was (trying to) positively cheer for you bitcoin reaching 502$ so you are in the green as well, and only envy your considerable stake. No harm intended and good for you that you managed to get your average price down while only trading with 10% of your stash.

Edit: for the record, I do not trade at all. Cold storage + small amounts for weekly / monthly usage.

[Fatman3001]

So are you saying that we are going down, and I should sell a bit more... ha hahaha... what fucking looney to attempt to judge what someone else should be doing.

Must be that English is not my first language, neither my second. I was (trying to) positively cheer for you bitcoin reaching 502$ so you are in the green as well, and only envy your considerable stake. No harm intended and good for you that you managed to get your average price down while only trading with 10% of your stash.

Edit: for the record, I do not trade at all. Cold storage + small amounts for weekly / monthly  usage.

There's nothing wrong with your english. Half this forum should be on meds.

[macsga]

There's nothing wrong with your english. Half this forum should be on meds.

That's an underestimation. I'd say the WHOLE forum would be more accurate. 

[Fatman3001]

There's nothing wrong with your english. Half this forum should be on meds.

That's an underestimation. I'd say the WHOLE forum would be more accurate. 

Wooow, colors man!

[ChartBuddy]

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