Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I bought at 380 thinking it would only go up, and you know what? I hate being wrong ><

The common traders emotion, "Why does the price always go down after I buy and goes up right after I sell". Well we just need to wait for a little while for the price to push around the $390 mark again.

True, but I see only a lowering trend and it's bothering me a lot 

Probably, you need to zoom out a little bit in order to have a better perspective.


Sometimes, I wonder, unless it is just for trolling effect, how posters can get so worked up about the price movement within one or two weeks or some other selective period of time that shows a downward trend. 

We have both downward and upward trends in bitcoin, and both can be occurring at the same time depending on the timeline that you are describing.

Surely, we may have some continuing and ongoing downtrend, even below $300 - however, if we realize that to be a possibility, then we should prepare for such - which doesn't necessarily mean betting all of our BTC holdings that it is going below $300, when we may only see that as a less than 10% probability.

At this point, I am inclined towards thinking the next 5% adjustment in BTC prices will be down... I give it a 53% for down and 47% for up....   But really it is not a clear and convincing conviction merely to be inclined to believe one way or the other.

[aztecminer]

Seriously? What does it make your constitution different from most countries?

Britain doesn't have a constitution. We rely on fair play and the knowledge that no one will complain no matter what's done to us.

The Special Relationship with the US is deeply pathetic to witness from the British end. It's like a desperately insecure boyfriend over analysing his uninterested woman's every move.

any relationship with obama admin is pathetic... i have been lobbying for a Magna Carta here in the USA to go with Texas state movement to roll back the power of the federal govy over states and the presidents power to use executive orders to circumvent congress to pass laws that the president cant pass legally ... because for one thing i do not believe i really owe the USA 30% to 40% of my income .. #abusivehightaxes ............... maybe i owe some taxes, but i dont owe 30 to 40% worth ... i think i saw that obama raised taxes on bitcoin from 15% to 20% .

[adamstgBit]

relentless vol at relatively low levels, everyone is busy selling bottom... will they all sell at once in a panic again at some point? maybe...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I bought at 380 thinking it would only go up, and you know what? I hate being wrong ><

The common traders emotion, "Why does the price always go down after I buy and goes up right after I sell". Well we just need to wait for a little while for the price to push around the $390 mark again.

True, but I see only a lowering trend and it's bothering me a lot 

Unless the blockchain issue gets resolved or some big news that will make everyone to jump back in there's not enough push for the price to recover.

Well if the blockchain issue isn't resolved, btc is dead no? (From what I understood)

when i went into bitcoin "larger scale" price was at $120,-  a few weeks later price went below $70,- at some point. you will get a glimpse of how that feels if price goes down to $275,- or so.  that was 2013. later that same year price went over $1000,- 

so.... relax. 

I read this post a few hours ago, and I was thinking about it.


Initially, I was thinking that a drop to $275 was pretty unrealistic; however, upon further consideration, it is not beyond the realm of possibilities to cause for a pick up of the upward volume that would launch BTC prices upward from the point that we are now and likely into $500, $600 and beyond.

Really, if we look at the past 1/2 year, we had real decent pick up on volume that lasted about 18 weeks, but then the past about 5 weeks have experienced a relatively drying up of volume into a kind of medium territory.  I wouldn't call that stability exactly, because of the earlier volume and the ongoing BTC price developments.

Whether the purported scaling concerns are real enough to undermine BTC fundamentals (I hate to give that issue so much credit but the presentation of the issue can play into perceptions), we have some dynamics that could allow for a price drop into the lower $300s or even into the upper $200s. 

On the other hand, my personal belief is that chances are a bit greater that we will see $430 before we see $315...   At the moment, that's how I have balanced my bets.

[JayJuanGee]

Big gap opening up on dodgy dealings that is BTC-e.

What irony [insert gif here]


Maybe BTC-e is becoming our new price leader?


Although they have been up for several weeks - even when BTC prices were going down.


I doubt BTC-e's higher prices and widening gap should imply any kind of "dodgy dealings" necessarily.


Their actual anonymity and difficulties in transferring cash in and out of there has always caused them to perform a bit different from some of the other exchanges that are more KYC and AML compliant.  No?

Is there any other evidence of "dodgy dealings," besides a ongoing and increasing price gap?

[tomothy]

"Whether the purported scaling concerns are real enough to undermine BTC fundamentals (I hate to give that issue so much credit but the presentation of the issue can play into perceptions), we have some dynamics that could allow for a price drop into the lower $300s or even into the upper $200s."

I'm hoping we drop sub 300. I'd like to pick up some cheap CHEAP coins but feel this is unrealistic. There's been too much support @>$325. I think we could have a quick mtgox/DPR drop but that would recover quickly if classic/core goes nuclear. I'm hoping for a HF to 2mb; for some slight to significant market drop and plan on buying at that time. I know source code has been released, binaries are being compiled, and slush & antpool support classic.

 I don't really have much liquid to play with and I've had issues losing keys before so I use various services to hold my coins. I recognize that I'm dependent on what the institutions do after a possible core/classic split since they store mine... (Yeah, they're not your coins unless you have them... but better than losing your coins or suffering an improper backup.. NOOOOOOOO). (just a few alts... /cry). ~$600 lost /sigh

I don't see any major corrections until the core classic debate gets resolved afterwhich there will by craziness bad and then super good. /shrug  my $.02

I'd just like to know how long we will go downward sideways like this for.


My understanding on BTC-E differential is that the price difference is due to cost of their fees. I believe ~+/- 2%

[coins101]

Big gap opening up on dodgy dealings that is BTC-e.

What irony [insert gif here]


Maybe BTC-e is becoming our new price leader?


Although they have been up for several weeks - even when BTC prices were going down.


I doubt BTC-e's higher prices and widening gap should imply any kind of "dodgy dealings" necessarily.


Their actual anonymity and difficulties in transferring cash in and out of there has always caused them to perform a bit different from some of the other exchanges that are more KYC and AML compliant.  No?

Is there any other evidence of "dodgy dealings," besides a ongoing and increasing price gap?

[adamstgBit]

Bitcoin

Making trips to the moon affordable

[keats3]

Big gap opening up on dodgy dealings that is BTC-e.

What irony [insert gif here]


Maybe BTC-e is becoming our new price leader?


Although they have been up for several weeks - even when BTC prices were going down.


I doubt BTC-e's higher prices and widening gap should imply any kind of "dodgy dealings" necessarily.


Their actual anonymity and difficulties in transferring cash in and out of there has always caused them to perform a bit different from some of the other exchanges that are more KYC and AML compliant.  No?

Is there any other evidence of "dodgy dealings," besides a ongoing and increasing price gap?

BTC-e has always been one of the lower volume exchanges and it never needed much money to create a wide gap with the high volume exchanges. Today its had $ 2,207,640 of bitcoins traded which puts it slightly below Bitstamp in volume. That's not evidence of "dodgy dealings" but it's highly unusual for BTC-e to have that much volume. The order books still look fairly thin, so if someone with money wants to buy a big number of bitcoins there it will make an ongoing and increasing price gap.

[nioc]

"Whether the purported scaling concerns are real enough to undermine BTC fundamentals (I hate to give that issue so much credit but the presentation of the issue can play into perceptions), we have some dynamics that could allow for a price drop into the lower $300s or even into the upper $200s."

I'm hoping we drop sub 300. I'd like to pick up some cheap CHEAP coins but feel this is unrealistic. There's been too much support @>$325. I think we could have a quick mtgox/DPR drop but that would recover quickly if classic/core goes nuclear. I'm hoping for a HF to 2mb; for some slight to significant market drop and plan on buying at that time. I know source code has been released, binaries are being compiled, and slush & antpool support classic.

 I don't really have much liquid to play with and I've had issues losing keys before so I use various services to hold my coins. I recognize that I'm dependent on what the institutions do after a possible core/classic split since they store mine... (Yeah, they're not your coins unless you have them... but better than losing your coins or suffering an improper backup.. NOOOOOOOO). (just a few alts... /cry). ~$600 lost /sigh

I don't see any major corrections until the core classic debate gets resolved afterwhich there will by craziness bad and then super good. /shrug  my $.02

I'd just like to know how long we will go downward sideways like this for.


My understanding on BTC-E differential is that the price difference is due to cost of their fees. I believe ~+/- 2%

Have you considered using electrum for your wallet?  A multi word seed can be used as a back up.  I have mine in several secure locations.  It is easy to recreate your wallet from the seed and it doesn't matter if your comp gets destroyed.  You can also make multiple wallets within the same program, each with it's own seed.  Plus you don't have to keep it synced.

Plus when btc is forked 8 ways, unlike with a 3rd party,  you will have coins on all 8 forks

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

"Whether the purported scaling concerns are real enough to undermine BTC fundamentals (I hate to give that issue so much credit but the presentation of the issue can play into perceptions), we have some dynamics that could allow for a price drop into the lower $300s or even into the upper $200s."

I'm hoping we drop sub 300. I'd like to pick up some cheap CHEAP coins but feel this is unrealistic. There's been too much support @>$325. I think we could have a quick mtgox/DPR drop but that would recover quickly if classic/core goes nuclear. I'm hoping for a HF to 2mb; for some slight to significant market drop and plan on buying at that time. I know source code has been released, binaries are being compiled, and slush & antpool support classic.

 I don't really have much liquid to play with and I've had issues losing keys before so I use various services to hold my coins. I recognize that I'm dependent on what the institutions do after a possible core/classic split since they store mine... (Yeah, they're not your coins unless you have them... but better than losing your coins or suffering an improper backup.. NOOOOOOOO). (just a few alts... /cry). ~$600 lost /sigh

I don't see any major corrections until the core classic debate gets resolved afterwhich there will by craziness bad and then super good. /shrug  my $.02

I'd just like to know how long we will go downward sideways like this for.


My understanding on BTC-E differential is that the price difference is due to cost of their fees. I believe ~+/- 2%

I agree with most of the points that you made in your post - except I would differentiate on a couple of points.

1) I think that you are giving too much credit that some kind of resolution of the core/classic debate is a necessary condition for BTC prices to move in either direction.  Yes, it is getting a lot of attention in the recent month, but there was also some variation of the impending doom of bitcoin concerning this scaling matter for nearly a year, and maybe even a bit longer than that.   

This scaling subject matter is too much exaggerated, and even the supposed exacerbated tension and stagnation within the community regarding governance and difficulties in consensus is quite exaggerated. 

Bitcoin is considerably built upon trustless and no need for direct and outwardly communicated consensus... except to the extent that consensus comes through actions and choosing which protocols to follow in regards to the majority following such protocols and sometimes difficulties in changing the direction of the majority (or the status quo).   Lack of consensus and disputes is always going to be a problem with peer to peer and decentralized systems.. it is what makes them great and difficult at the same time.


2) regarding your assertion of the +/-2% of BTC-e, I am not sure about what you are referring.  Trading fees on BTC-e are .2%; however, frequently, explanations are made regarding price differentials due to ease and or difficulties in moving money on and off of exchanges.  I believe with BTC-e, it is pretty easy to move bitcoins but a bit more difficult to move fiat on and off.  That has always been the case with BTC-e, and I have the sense that BTC-e has made few significant improvements regarding moving fiat on and/off - yet the price difference on BTC-e used to be negative, rather than positive...   Sure  that is similar to what happened at Gox before they imploded, but Gox had a lot of other issues going on, besides merely the fact that they were trading at a premium prior to imploding.

[JayJuanGee]

Big gap opening up on dodgy dealings that is BTC-e.

What irony [insert gif here]


Maybe BTC-e is becoming our new price leader?


Although they have been up for several weeks - even when BTC prices were going down.


I doubt BTC-e's higher prices and widening gap should imply any kind of "dodgy dealings" necessarily.


Their actual anonymity and difficulties in transferring cash in and out of there has always caused them to perform a bit different from some of the other exchanges that are more KYC and AML compliant.  No?

Is there any other evidence of "dodgy dealings," besides a ongoing and increasing price gap?

hahahahahaha




I have no idea what the circle depiction represents, but it sure is pretty.     

[8up]

Are you prepared?

[mOgliE]

I bought at 380 thinking it would only go up, and you know what? I hate being wrong ><

The common traders emotion, "Why does the price always go down after I buy and goes up right after I sell". Well we just need to wait for a little while for the price to push around the $390 mark again.

True, but I see only a lowering trend and it's bothering me a lot 

Probably, you need to zoom out a little bit in order to have a better perspective.


Sometimes, I wonder, unless it is just for trolling effect, how posters can get so worked up about the price movement within one or two weeks or some other selective period of time that shows a downward trend. 

We have both downward and upward trends in bitcoin, and both can be occurring at the same time depending on the timeline that you are describing.

Surely, we may have some continuing and ongoing downtrend, even below $300 - however, if we realize that to be a possibility, then we should prepare for such - which doesn't necessarily mean betting all of our BTC holdings that it is going below $300, when we may only see that as a less than 10% probability.

At this point, I am inclined towards thinking the next 5% adjustment in BTC prices will be down... I give it a 53% for down and 47% for up....   But really it is not a clear and convincing conviction merely to be inclined to believe one way or the other.

Not trolling dude... Merely worrying about the future that's all...

I'm glad you have so much faith in bitcoin and so much self control. I for myself am a bit worried about a potential stagnation linked to the issues btc is facing. I don't like seeing the lowering trend of the past weeks, and I don't want to see a new age of 280/300 $ that's all.

[JayJuanGee]

Big gap opening up on dodgy dealings that is BTC-e.

What irony [insert gif here]


Maybe BTC-e is becoming our new price leader?


Although they have been up for several weeks - even when BTC prices were going down.


I doubt BTC-e's higher prices and widening gap should imply any kind of "dodgy dealings" necessarily.


Their actual anonymity and difficulties in transferring cash in and out of there has always caused them to perform a bit different from some of the other exchanges that are more KYC and AML compliant.  No?

Is there any other evidence of "dodgy dealings," besides a ongoing and increasing price gap?

BTC-e has always been one of the lower volume exchanges and it never needed much money to create a wide gap with the high volume exchanges. Today its had $ 2,207,640 of bitcoins traded which puts it slightly below Bitstamp in volume. That's not evidence of "dodgy dealings" but it's highly unusual for BTC-e to have that much volume. The order books still look fairly thin, so if someone with money wants to buy a big number of bitcoins there it will make an ongoing and increasing price gap.

Hey, that sounds like as good of an explanation as any other explanation that has been put forth.

Accordingly, generally low volume and thin order books, allows for more price manipulation in one direction or another by a small number of whales (I generally don't buy into any "one whale theories" without some evidence).


And, I agree whale manipulation based on arbitrage or whatever low volume opportunities does not rise to the level of an accusation worthy of "dodgy dealings."

[coin_gambler]

no movements in price... people need action as fast as possible

[tomothy]

Re: Nioc - Electrum, Good point. I might as well move some coins here in case of catastrophic failure. Write down words on paper. Put paper in safe... Bury safe in backyard? Lol..., no but seriously. Buried in back yard or safety deposit box? Lol... (backyard?)

Re: JayJuanGee - I think you are too quick to discount the recent scaling debate & divisiveness. I think the issue now, is that this issue hasn't gone away but gotten worse. Although this scaling fight, in essence, has been present since Gavin's transition, it is now festering and the price is being affected. It started with Hearns XT and blacklisting of TOR nodes, which allegedly was not blacklisted but... and then you have blockstream, Core, RBF, lightning, stubbornness. As a lay user, I no longer trust either camp (Hearn/Core). Everyone has a secret agenda but Core's agenda no longer seems to co-exist with the goals of miners, users, or exchanges. I see no significant issue with a pure 1mb increase (2mb total) and restoration of no RBF. Essentially, IMO, continuation of the status quo while Bitcoin was run by Gavin. Core desperately doesn't want this and has failed to explain to me why their way is better.

There has been a lot of bluster on both sides and I think this holding pattern may simply continue until Bitfury releases the new Asics...  but still... Bitcoin has started to smell,  I don't like segwit, I don't trust it. I think it sounds good, but it sounds too good to be true. If this wasn't bitcoin, maybe I'd bite. However, there are lots of smoke and mirrors in cryptoland and this stinks worse than the alternatives.  

I think ultimately you have two sets of institutional investors, aka super powers, probably even more, whom all have different designs for bitcoin. BlockStream & PWC vs. Coinbase Et al. Until there is a clear winner or loser I don't see much happening out in the open or changes in price. I see continued stagnation. In private however, it seems like there is some super sexy development going on... which will push price up when the time is right. I.E., continue to Hodl until the big boys are done playing... and they start the pump.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation