Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

4 posts in a row

shouldn't those groovy mods who bravely banned our drunken master ban this prancing ninny as well?

Calling for bans is pretty bad form I think, he hasn't really done much wrong.

Price stuck in the same rut it's been in for a while, I almost miss the volatility of old.

Don't worry. JJG is down with Core.

So the fuck what, whatever side of the blocksize limit debate that I happen to find more convincing... ?

Why do we attempt to put people into camps.. when it doesn't  fucking matter, and there are ideas out there besides some of the stupid ass blocksize limit debate that you cannot get out of your simple head.

I just had a thought and it spilled out on this forum.

Yeah, this is what kids do.  They have difficulties with self-discipline.  Maybe you should think a little bit before you type?

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[Ultrafinery]

By the way bother, you shocked me when I saw you believeing in $25K - $250K within 5-10 years as I don't know if you re-call or not when we were talking on PM, you had nearlly 0.x% chance that we will reach those values within the given timeframe.

Don't get me wrong, you are a buddy and brother of mine, I just see and understand you are a bull and not a permabull like the minority rest of us.

I would like to know what caused to elevate your bullishness to that level, I'm extremely happy btw to see you crazy like us

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this.  There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings.  So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation.  Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.  

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k".  Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today.  If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point. 

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities. 

Here’s the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Here’s my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much.  Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000  5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance



I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

Jammin'.

[whoreble]

Dang. Down we go

[DeathAngel]

Dang. Down we go

Down $10 today but this is all childs play really, just people taking small profit. Nothing to worry about, let us see where the situation is a few months after the halving.

[Fatman3001]

I just had a thought and it spilled out on this forum.

Yeah, this is what kids do.  They have difficulties with self-discipline.  Maybe you should think a little bit before you type?

I wrote that because I thought you would sympathize.

The other two rants you had about my post sort of TL,DR'd on me, so I don't really know how pissed you are.

All I can say is: A man can dream, can't he?

[JayJuanGee]

I just had a thought and it spilled out on this forum.

Yeah, this is what kids do.  They have difficulties with self-discipline.  Maybe you should think a little bit before you type?

I wrote that because I thought you would sympathize.

The other two rants you had about my post sort of TL,DR'd on me, so I don't really know how pissed you are.

All I can say is: A man can dream, can't he?

To the extent that there is any comprehensibility in what you just wrote,  you seem to be reading too much into my two most recent responses.

If you were a bit more able to discuss substance related to bitcoin and this thread, then it could help discussion of this thread overall, but that may be a bit too much to expect from you for more than one or two posts per week, hm?

[Fatman3001]

I just had a thought and it spilled out on this forum.

Yeah, this is what kids do.  They have difficulties with self-discipline.  Maybe you should think a little bit before you type?

I wrote that because I thought you would sympathize.

The other two rants you had about my post sort of TL,DR'd on me, so I don't really know how pissed you are.

All I can say is: A man can dream, can't he?

To the extent that there is any comprehensibility in what you just wrote,  you seem to be reading too much into my two most recent responses.

If you were a bit more able to discuss substance related to bitcoin and this thread, then it could help discussion of this thread overall, but that may be a bit too much to expect from you for more than one or two posts per week, hm?

The problem is probably more related to reading comprehension than comprehensibility. Maybe you should let the keyboard rest for a while so you can work on that. You've already killed one forum.

[Mrpumperitis]

chill guys ,lol

ok BTC going up a bit over next 48hours... THE DAO effect..lol

[JayJuanGee]

I just had a thought and it spilled out on this forum.

Yeah, this is what kids do.  They have difficulties with self-discipline.  Maybe you should think a little bit before you type?

I wrote that because I thought you would sympathize.

The other two rants you had about my post sort of TL,DR'd on me, so I don't really know how pissed you are.

All I can say is: A man can dream, can't he?

To the extent that there is any comprehensibility in what you just wrote,  you seem to be reading too much into my two most recent responses.

If you were a bit more able to discuss substance related to bitcoin and this thread, then it could help discussion of this thread overall, but that may be a bit too much to expect from you for more than one or two posts per week, hm?

The problem is probably more related to reading comprehension than comprehensibility. Maybe you should let the keyboard rest for a while so you can work on that. You've already killed one forum.

Hahahahahaha... what power I have.  

Now, supposedly, I am responsible for "killing" a forum.. What nonsense.      

O.k.... I will bite.. which forum is this that I supposedly "killed"?

[whoreble]

JayJuanGee. Fatman3001. Gentlemen.

https://loveandotherbookishthings.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/05b80-tumblr_m5wyquglct1qbaj4uo1_400.gif?w=656

[Fakhoury]

By the way bother, you shocked me when I saw you believeing in $25K - $250K within 5-10 years as I don't know if you re-call or not when we were talking on PM, you had nearlly 0.x% chance that we will reach those values within the given timeframe.

Don't get me wrong, you are a buddy and brother of mine, I just see and understand you are a bull and not a permabull like the minority rest of us.

I would like to know what caused to elevate your bullishness to that level, I'm extremely happy btw to see you crazy like us

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this.  There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings.  So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation.  Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.  

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k".  Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today.  If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point. 

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities. 

Here’s the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Here’s my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much.  Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000  5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance



I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

You are most welcome my friend.

Lets assume that this year we will reach $1,000 and next one $3,000

Could you please show me your new speculation buddy.

I will tell you why I stated $1K and $3K after you write the new speculation.

[Mrpumperitis]

[KR912] Keiser Report: Bitcoin Core versus Bitcoin Classic
Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/2016/05/kr912-keiser-report-bitcoin-core-versus-bitcoin-classic/#rrKp3bxrtBp0IY5T.99

[JayJuanGee]

By the way bother, you shocked me when I saw you believeing in $25K - $250K within 5-10 years as I don't know if you re-call or not when we were talking on PM, you had nearlly 0.x% chance that we will reach those values within the given timeframe.

Don't get me wrong, you are a buddy and brother of mine, I just see and understand you are a bull and not a permabull like the minority rest of us.

I would like to know what caused to elevate your bullishness to that level, I'm extremely happy btw to see you crazy like us

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this.  There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings.  So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation.  Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.  

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k".  Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today.  If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point.  

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities.  

Here’s the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Here’s my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much.  Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000  5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance



I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

You are most welcome my friend.

Lets assume that this year we will reach $1,000 and next one $3,000

Could you please show me your new speculation buddy.

I will tell you why I stated $1K and $3K after you write the new speculation.

For a few reasons, I have a bit of a difficult time with your framing of the hypothetical scenario that you want me to assume $1,000 and $3,000, and actually your reframing of the question, points out a bit of a weakness in my categorizing contained within my above earlier answer.

Let me see if I can get you to agree to some other numbers or frameworks.

First, $1,000 is a strange ass price point or focal point.. yeah, it's contained in my earlier projection of possible ranges, but it should be referenced a bit differently - both based on bitcoin's history and based on more likely price surge and FOMO scenarios.  

I'm not the only poster in these forums to suggest that we're not going to $1,000.. either we are going to $800, or some place a bit below $800 or we are going quite passed $1000, something like $3,000 to $5,000..

Yeah, we may return to $1,000 after visiting the $3k to $5k range but that's a different part of the potential story.

O.k... I think that if you are going to frame hypotheticals for this year and for next year... the first hypothetical range would be that we pass in the $800 to $2000 range within this year... and really I have a hard time with almost any number in that range, but I would be willing to agree that once we past $800 that $2,000 could possibly be within the low end of the range that we would meet.... but in fact, I have the sense that the whole range of $800 to $5,000 is almost the same thing.... we get passed $800 then we likely bounce into the $3k to $5k range...

So, my request, is that you should reframe your hypothetical to change the numbers a bit because otherwise, I think that any prediction that I would be making would be based on BTC price point assumptions that do not make too much sense to me under either bitcoin's history or likely scenarios that would occur after passing various resistance points.

Alternatively, if you could explain some of the various assumptions underlying your framework and your BTC price point numbers, I may be willing to adapt my "battle of the framework" to come over a bit more to your thinking.  

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee. Fatman3001. Gentlemen.

hahahahaha..   nice animation.   


That pussy ass fatty duck acts like a childish goofball, so I'm not sure why we should make up...

[Fakhoury]

By the way bother, you shocked me when I saw you believeing in $25K - $250K within 5-10 years as I don't know if you re-call or not when we were talking on PM, you had nearlly 0.x% chance that we will reach those values within the given timeframe.

Don't get me wrong, you are a buddy and brother of mine, I just see and understand you are a bull and not a permabull like the minority rest of us.

I would like to know what caused to elevate your bullishness to that level, I'm extremely happy btw to see you crazy like us

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this.  There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings.  So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation.  Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.  

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k".  Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today.  If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point.  

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities.  

Here’s the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Here’s my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much.  Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000  5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance



I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

You are most welcome my friend.

Lets assume that this year we will reach $1,000 and next one $3,000

Could you please show me your new speculation buddy.

I will tell you why I stated $1K and $3K after you write the new speculation.

For a few reasons, I have a bit of a difficult time with your framing of the hypothetical scenario that you want me to assume $1,000 and $3,000, and actually your reframing of the question, points out a bit of a weakness in my categorizing contained within my above earlier answer.

Let me see if I can get you to agree to some other numbers or frameworks.

First, $1,000 is a strange ass price point or focal point.. yeah, it's contained in my earlier projection of possible ranges, but it should be referenced a bit differently - both based on bitcoin's history and based on more likely price surge and FOMO scenarios.  

I'm not the only poster in these forums to suggest that we're not going to $1,000.. either we are going to $800, or some place a bit below $800 or we are going quite passed $1000, something like $3,000 to $5,000..

Yeah, we may return to $1,000 after visiting the $3k to $5k range but that's a different part of the potential story.

O.k... I think that if you are going to frame hypotheticals for this year and for next year... the first hypothetical range would be that we pass in the $800 to $2000 range within this year... and really I have a hard time with almost any number in that range, but I would be willing to agree that once we past $800 that $2,000 could possibly be within the low end of the range that we would meet.... but in fact, I have the sense that the whole range of $800 to $5,000 is almost the same thing.... we get passed $800 then we likely bounce into the $3k to $5k range...

So, my request, is that you should reframe your hypothetical to change the numbers a bit because otherwise, I think that any prediction that I would be making would be based on BTC price point assumptions that do not make too much sense to me under either bitcoin's history or likely scenarios that would occur after passing various resistance points.

Alternatively, if you could explain some of the various assumptions underlying your framework and your BTC price point numbers, I may be willing to adapt my "battle of the framework" to come over a bit more to your thinking.  

You know what my dear friend, sorry for getting off-topic a bit, but when I read your replies, you remind me of one of my best friends ever IRL, I miss him so much, may Allah (God) bless both of you

Back to topic, there is a guy named something Vinny I guess, wrote a blog post named, Bitcoin 2016 The Awekaning, and it was featured on Zero Hedge.

The guy who copied it to ZH stated that he is type of a guy who knows his shit so well, where if he talks, we shall listen as he predicited a lot of price scanerios in the past and he was correct.

He stated that we MAY visit $1K this year and $3K in the coming year.

I somehow gave him some credibality for what he said, so I asked you to re-adjust your predications depending on this new specualtion.

Did I convince you ?

[AZwarel]

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point. 

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities. 

Here’s the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Here’s my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much.  Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000  5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance



I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

If bitcoin is still below 5000$ in 10 years - i totally dear to say 5 years  ! - it has failed (game over). Disruptive technological innovations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation follow a well established pattern - by the spread among "average people", not in an academic manner. If Bitcoin, the internet solution to replace 3rd party trust, and bitcoin the token it uses as a societal tool as money (network security incentive, but forget that for a moment), which is obviously mostly a speculative asset tool today(!), fulfils the path of exponential growth* of technological instrument's advance in the past, it can not be valued below 5000$ of today's dollar worth in 2020.

That would mean it does not follow the historical innovation's model.



Just think about the number of "users/adopters". In 2009, bitcoin had like 1-10?. In 2010, maybe a few hundred. In 2011, a few thousands, and so on, 10x-100x till around 2013-2014, when it seemingly slowed down from the 100x+, but, and a BIG but, folks with money and vision (both for "omg, the humanity!, and greed) started to invest in it - in the network architecture in itself, not in the token. From than on, since the infrastructure started to be laid down, bitcoin was "immune" to death. No investors would ever let it go down to zero after they have just paid n x 10 million dollars to lay the railroad. They would have or did (?) rather buy up all newly minted/quitting coins, just to keep their investment alive. That is one of the reasons, IMO that bitcoin can not go to zero, or to double digits anymore (>200$?), never. Period.

To be what it promises, and those things we can not imagine yet, bitcoin needs a LOT more "average Joe" users, " Joe" business users (small-medium enterprises). If the remaining 5-10 years can not draw these 100-1000x of today's users, than bitcoin will most likely fail, because of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.

If we accept this path as an approximation - we should not necessarily - than from today's ~450 USD/BTC price we can calculate that a bitcoin can not be below 5000 USD/BTC in 10 years. The math does not compute, 100x-1000x users, new, untold/unimagined valuable usages must make the "token" units more valuable.


*Think about exponential growth. We already know how the math in epidemiology works out in a new pathogenic since the 1500's in an unimmunized populace, like the North American natives vs. European invaders (smallpox, the common cold). By the way, that is just many of the one reasons why the greatest medical/governmental frauds of the 20th century of HEP-C/HIV=AIDS(yes, i stand by it!!)/HPV cancer variants are hoaxes, logical fallacies, even by simple mathematical reasoning, and used only for controlling the populace by fear and selling overpriced pills...)

[whoreble]

... the greatest medical/governmental frauds of the 20th century of HEP-C/HIV=AIDS(yes, i stand by it!!)/HPV cancer variants are hoaxes, logical fallacies, even by simple mathematical reasoning, and used only for controlling the populace by fear and selling overpriced pills...)

Not hoaxes, bro. Saurian Jews are responsible, and must be brought to justice! But we must act now, decisively, lest they sneak away!

[AZwarel]

... the greatest medical/governmental frauds of the 20th century of HEP-C/HIV=AIDS(yes, i stand by it!!)/HPV cancer variants are hoaxes, logical fallacies, even by simple mathematical reasoning, and used only for controlling the populace by fear and selling overpriced pills...)

Not hoaxes, bro. Saurian Jews are responsible, and must be brought to justice! But we must act now, decisively, lest they sneak away!

That was not my point, i have just mentioned those mainstream healthcare misunderstandings as an example (factually proven, and easy to check by the simple "follow the money" tactic) as a demonstration for mathematical rules for a scientific fact-check. I am not a supporter of any collectivist by race/religion based conspiracy. There are twisted/naive people. There is no collective, only "evil" (violent, immoral) individuals.

[JayJuanGee]

You know what my dear friend, sorry for getting off-topic a bit, but when I read your replies, you remind me of one of my best friends ever IRL, I miss him so much, may Allah (God) bless both of you

Back to topic, there is a guy named something Vinny I guess, wrote a blog post named, Bitcoin 2016 The Awekaning, and it was featured on Zero Hedge.

The guy who copied it to ZH stated that he is type of a guy who knows his shit so well, where if he talks, we shall listen as he predicited a lot of price scanerios in the past and he was correct.

He stated that we MAY visit $1K this year and $3K in the coming year.

I somehow gave him some credibality for what he said, so I asked you to re-adjust your predications depending on this new specualtion.

Did I convince you ?

On May 7, I posted about that article in another location, and my post was like this:


>>>>>>>>>I don't know what to make of the below linked article, exactly, but the author is fairly bullish about bitcoin, and claims that he had predicted Bitcoin's 2013 rise to above $1,000 and it's subsequent fall in price. 

I do take any self-proclaimed soothsayers with a grain of salt; however, currently, the author is predicting $1,000+ in 2016 and $3,000+ in 2017.

I will proclaim that the author's predicted numbers are somewhat similar to mine; however, mine differ a bit in that I'm thinking that once BTC prices go passed $800-ish, then they will likely shoot well passed $1,000 into the $3k to $5k territory and then settle back into the $1,000s..  and then possibly have another run at a later date to go passed $5k into the $10k-ish territory.

I'm quite a bit less certain in my head regarding my own predictions, especially regarding when my prediction  will happen because Possibly I have become jaded by ideas of conspiracy and I do believe that status quo financial and government forces do have some abilities to bring forces to bear to continue to engage in downward manipulation attempts

But, yeah, when my actual prediction occurs (if it does) is difficult to predict with any precision or to know because first of all we gotta get out of the $400s first, if we can?.. which getting out of the $400s will likely take us into the $600s.. and then maybe a correction back to the $500s or even $400s, and thereafter, it could take a while to get out of the $500 to $800 price range.

Anyhow, the below linked article is a decent read:


http://www.coindesk.com/2016%E2%80%8A-brought-bitcoin-awakening/   <<<<<<<

[JayJuanGee]

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point. 

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities. 

Here’s the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Here’s my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much.  Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000  5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance



I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

If bitcoin is still below 5000$ in 10 years - i totally dear to say 5 years  ! - it has failed (game over). Disruptive technological innovations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation follow a well established pattern - by the spread among "average people", not in an academic manner. If Bitcoin, the internet solution to replace 3rd party trust, and bitcoin the token it uses as a societal tool as money (network security incentive, but forget that for a moment), which is obviously mostly a speculative asset tool today(!), fulfils the path of exponential growth* of technological instrument's advance in the past, it can not be valued below 5000$ of today's dollar worth in 2020.

That would mean it does not follow the historical innovation's model.



Just think about the number of "users/adopters". In 2009, bitcoin had like 1-10?. In 2010, maybe a few hundred. In 2011, a few thousands, and so on, 10x-100x till around 2013-2014, when it seemingly slowed down from the 100x+, but, and a BIG but, folks with money and vision (both for "omg, the humanity!, and greed) started to invest in it - in the network architecture in itself, not in the token. From than on, since the infrastructure started to be laid down, bitcoin was "immune" to death. No investors would ever let it go down to zero after they have just paid n x 10 million dollars to lay the railroad. They would have or did (?) rather buy up all newly minted/quitting coins, just to keep their investment alive. That is one of the reasons, IMO that bitcoin can not go to zero, or to double digits anymore (>200$?), never. Period.

To be what it promises, and those things we can not imagine yet, bitcoin needs a LOT more "average Joe" users, " Joe" business users (small-medium enterprises). If the remaining 5-10 years can not draw these 100-1000x of today's users, than bitcoin will most likely fail, because of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.

If we accept this path as an approximation - we should not necessarily - than from today's ~450 USD/BTC price we can calculate that a bitcoin can not be below 5000 USD/BTC in 10 years. The math does not compute, 100x-1000x users, new, untold/unimagined valuable usages must make the "token" units more valuable.


*Think about exponential growth. We already know how the math in epidemiology works out in a new pathogenic since the 1500's in an unimmunized populace, like the North American natives vs. European invaders (smallpox, the common cold). By the way, that is just many of the one reasons why the greatest medical/governmental frauds of the 20th century of HEP-C/HIV=AIDS(yes, i stand by it!!)/HPV cancer variants are hoaxes, logical fallacies, even by simple mathematical reasoning, and used only for controlling the populace by fear and selling overpriced pills...)

Azwarel:

I largely agree with everything you say, and I certainly keep in mind exponential growth and disruptive innovation ideas.

I get it that exponential growth is explosive; however, I doubt that bitcoin would be a failure merely because it had not yet achieved a few more exponential growth periods taking it beyond $5,000 in 5 years.

I kind of have the sense that we could well experience 3 or 4 more 10x growth spurts in the next 10 years; however, we cannot count on that, and I believe it would be premature to call bitcoin a failure if it did not have additional 10x growth periods as quickly as we would expect.

I don't really buy into the relevance of diffusive innovation; however, it is possible to come to play in terms of other coins taking over some of bitcoin's market share for some reason.  Currently, bitcoin seems to be so far ahead of other coins in its computer development, yet it is not impossible that those resources could not be diverted away from bitcoin. 

Bitcoin can remain great alongside other cryptos whether some of those other cryptos are decentralized or not.  It remains a lot more decentralized if building centralized subsystems on top of bitcoin's decentralized infrastructure than to be fooled by some other system that is not decentralized.. some of the latest XT and Classic attacks seemed to be quite aimed at taking away bitcoin's decentralized emphasis with complaints about efficiency etc...  Accordingly, since bitcoin core members seemed to have learned a lot from those attack attempts, bitcoin's chances of prospering and prospering without permission seems on the right track for explosive growth.