Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[practicaldreamer]

Subtract the price at swing low $1830 from previous swing high $2980 to get $1150. Multiply $1150 by 1.618 to get $1860.7. Add that $1860.7 to the $1830 low to get the 1.618 first Fibonacci extension of $3690.7 then repeat for the higher extensions.

Got it. So why do people think it works? What is the theory? Empirical based on backtesting across numerous markets?

They are trying to establish a sequence with a few variables, to discern a pattern. Its human nature - all too human, and in this particular case, all too flawed.
That is the best case scenario - worst case is that they are trying to kid you and I into buying into the sorcery.

Fibonacci ?

My royal arse. Too many variables old chap.

This is bitcoin.

[jbreher]

Subtract the price at swing low $1830 from previous swing high $2980 to get $1150. Multiply $1150 by 1.618 to get $1860.7. Add that $1860.7 to the $1830 low to get the 1.618 first Fibonacci extension of $3690.7 then repeat for the higher extensions.

Got it. So why do people think it works? What is the theory? Empirical based on backtesting across numerous markets?

Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers. The Golden Ratio 1.618 is found everywhere in nature and also bitcoin charts. Traders have been using Fibonacci for decades because it has been shown to work with markets. Back in January 2015 since I knew the bitcoin low was $152 at that time and the previous ATH was $1163 I could predict a possible future bitcoin price of $2798 from the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Do you see how Fibonacci can be useful now? In this case it could have helped a smart trader avoid taking profits too early.

Yeah, I'm familiar with Fibonacci and his work, just not as applied to markets.

If you tell me this happens to be observed in formal empirical backtesting, I can believe it. But only as applied to those markets. If you tell me it is anything else, I am not so inclined to believe it.

I've seen some spectacular (so-called) Bitcoin Fibonacci prediction fails. Accordingly, without (again) formal empirical backtesting against specifically Bitcoin, I am not inclined to put any faith in it. The fact that this method (is claimed to) work with more typical markets such as stocks and/or bonds, coupled with the knowledge that cryptocurrency is very uncorrelated with any other asset class, makes me further disinclined to believe its applicability to this market.

Any way you look at it, if it works at all in any market, I am inclined to beleive it says more about crowd behavior than any real fundamental mechanism.

Long story short, until I see some backtesting against Bitcoin, I am unlikely to put any faith in it whatsoever.

But now at least I know where the mapping of the Fib Numbers to predicted levels come from. Thanks.

[r0ach]

Bitcoin is a non-aggregate market that's been controlled almost entirely by a single entity on Bitfinex all the way from $200 to now so things like fib extensions mean all of jack shit.  This is why I call it a pump and dump.  If the price is controlled almost entirely by one entity, what the hell else would it be?  People make believe the price is moved by a bunch of small players....LOL.  The number of people who move this market up or down takes less than one hand to count.  It was like that when the price was $200 and it's the same way now.

[empowering]

This is why I call it a pump and dump. 

..... a pump and pump ?

[empowering]

....... talking of dumps

I wonder how much longer will BCH hold $200 for 

[Ibian]

get help roach

[Meuh6879]

mmmmh, resistance ... that, it's good.

[Meuh6879]

I should have paid more attention at school. Wow

You can learn money mechanism at school ?
: Quick, "the Fed", kill this city !

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Let this BCH alt coin die already.

No.  It was already planned and known there would be a dump period.  The price will be volatile and with some downward pressure and the earlier seller sell off. Price can be propped up with orders and exchanges can claim different types of friction to halt the liquidity to keep the price showing bitcoin cash is relevant (ie not near 0).

once the dust settles or as it does, the mining is going to ramp up and the economics and game theory is going to change gears.  They will try to outpace the old chain.  

It's a near 51% attack, plus an equivalent attack using exchanges, plus an equivalent using whales that have enough of the market cornered.

So the coalition is making a conjecture they have enough power to overcome Satoshi's hidden conjecture that the system can't be usurped.

They have a gang of nefarious hackers that have been stealing coins and laundering them through nefarious exchanges that have deals with the new coin minters (ie the nefarious miners).

They have launched their campaign to overthrow the network and free millions upon millions of stolen coins.

Meanwhile the candle is burning at both ends because arrests have already started and negotiations and prisoner's dilemmas have commenced.  

Heady times, gentlemen.

[leowonderful]

....... talking of dumps

I wonder how much longer will BCH hold $200 for  

Probably not too long. Everybody that has dumped BCH has mostly dumped and the planned HODLers are probably trembling right now. I'm surprised this chain is still alive with all of the mess that it has created and the mess that it is in itself. The coin could probably pump again now that many people have dumped but I doubt it'll go anywhere anytime soon.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

If this really is an attempt to launder lots and lots of stolen coins I imagine they will be prepared to accept a significant loss in the process. It's an interesting hypothesis.

[deepcolderwallet]

If you don't mind I'd like to ask you all a few serious questions.

1. When is "moon" for you guys? Everyone has their own "moon" value.

$150k+

2. When your "moon" figure has been achieved how will you sell a large amount of coins or will you always keep bitcoin?

I guess by that time fiat will be worthless, many things will be bought using Bitcoin. And I'll always keep.

3. Will you always keep a portion of your stash and never convert to fiat?

Sure thing.

[deepcolderwallet]

Why is ppl here so obsessed with that unknown milf? 
Posting a different pair of boobs for each special event would be appreciated.

Unknown milf?
Lol you are kidding, right?

[empowering]

 

It stirs

[empowering]

...meanwhile


BCH Update

There have been 84 blocks mined since the hard fork.
(641 blocks behind the original chain)

The Bitcoin Cash blockchain is currently operating at 26% of the original chain's difficulty.

The original chain has grown 562.20MB more than the Bitcoin Cash blockchain.

It is currently 311% more profitable to mine on the original chain.

Source:https://cash.coin.dance/blocks

Current price = $205

[JayJuanGee]

Fucking bitcoin. As soon as I make a poll, you start mooning and make me edit it.

There are some new options on the bottom.

Personally, I think that it is better to start the poll again in order to have better participation - because if you change it in the middle, the early voters cannot vote again.. and really it is not necessary to keep the poll up for the whole period (such as until August 31), because it doesn't really matter so much whether we are correct or not, but the more important point is that it gets a kind of snapshot about WO participant sentiment at any particular time (or even might provide some indication of the number of trolls floating in our midsts)

[marcus_of_augustus]

I think we should a simple binary option poll whether SegWit goes active during the time of the Great American Solar Eclipse, or not.

[lightfoot]

Note to self: Do not pay hookers in bitcoin cash. The slow transaction time will mean you could be in for hours of chit chat.

Use litecoin.

[deepcolderwallet]

Should I worry about Roger's SegWit2x new coin?

How are we gonna call it? Saw someone commenting on Roger's infamous shitlet he would call it NYACoin...

what this one? https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6rqvdg/announcing_bcash_a_new_cryptocurrency_with_zcash/

anyway, no. whichever new coin comes along, worrying is verboten, bitcoin can absorb all these.

call it 'yet another new shitcoin'

I was referring to Segwit2x fork. Since Luke-Jr has stated there's no way for Core to get along with SegWit2x (New York Agreement) we expect another fork soon. My questions are:

does this new shitcoin offer any risk to Bitcoin value?

What will be this crap name? Based on New York Agreement and coinbase signatures some guys are starting to call it NYACoin...

[JayJuanGee]

Small vote after payment if you Guy would like another ride like this on maybe  price guess + 4000$$ or something
But first payday than we look further
Greets and Good morning

Yeah, great idea'er let's turn the WO thread into micgoossens little chase the bitcoin play thing, for a small fee... WTF?