Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Have you ever thought about metacalfe's law?  If you are trying to equate bitcoin with other currencies then you are going to be off base because bitcoin is way fucking early to be pigeon-holed like that.. and to act like  it is same ole same ole.

Yeah and no market goes up forever. What goes up comes down. Being in this permabull/shill mentality is very wrong. It the same as those foolish  traders before the 2008 crisis.

Don't be ridiculous.  No one is saying that the market is going go up forever, even though we are currently in an upwards trajectory and currently in a bull market.  Still way too fucking early to be saying that the bull market has come to an end, even though it could come to an end at any time...

Why don't just communicate with the rest of us like you are a normal person rather than attempting imbue status upon yourself and to patronize the rest of us.

I have already explained it, I wrote a few posts about it in my blog. I don't think this thread is the best place to explain it in detail.

There is such a thing as cut and paste, and there is also such a thing as explanation..  Apparently you are too good to attempt either one.

But I don't even care if you believe in me or not. I have put out my opinions, everyone does what he wants with them. I don't care if you lose or win money at this point. I know I will make money if the market goes down.

You have asserted mere conclusions, and too bad for you to bet in only one direction (that is down), especially in an asset that has a lot of ongoing upwards price pressures and upwards potential.  Later, several of us will likely be more than willing to give you our condolences for your quite likely upcoming loss... and maybe you are at a loss already because you have a lack of insightfulness regarding this innovation that they call the bitcoins.

[Torque]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

[Elwar]

The main thing that I worried about Trezor or Ledger Nano S is that custom officials around the world are going to wise up and start looking for them.  Because they do have rather distinct look from your regular USBs.  

Pretty much every countries in the world has currency amount restriction and reporting requirement at airport.  If countries start to include Bitcoin into amount that you have to declare, having even 1 BTC in your hardware wallet could easily exceed those limit one day!  Since most limit are around USD or EUR 10K max.  BTC could easily reach USD or EUR 10K if it wants to.  

I travel a lot and move to different countries at times with all of my belongings (a carry-on and backpack).

I chose to use cryptosteel as my cold storage. I have several of them to split my coins up. Before moving to a new country the last time I went country hopping for a vacation before going to my new job. There was no way I was going to check in my cryptosteel and I was worried about anyone tampering with my cryptosteel so I wrapped them all into one block with a metallic tape.

Of course this set off the security scan as I went through Dubai. I spent about 10 minutes with the security guard trying to show him that they were harmless plates of metal (finally unwrapping one of them). It didn't help that I have a full chemical suit with gas mask but that's another story.

When I passed through Vietnam I made sure to have a picture of the cryptosteel on my phone and told the guy it was for my bitcoins. He just said "oh, bitcoins! cool" and let me go. I checked my bag when I passed through Thailand and was paranoid the whole time. I have a backup (somewhere in the world) and I have manipulated the private keys in such a way that even if someone was looking at them they would not have my private keys. But I still did not want to lose it. Relying on my backups would mean a lot of flights long flights.

[Romanknickl]

I agree , the FUD from china is banned now, we are on the way to 6k USD!
I just throw many btc in waves(on bittrex), I think btc will do very well in the next few weeks, but waves is to promising for me atm!

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WAVESBTC/u1juZUT0-WAVESBTC-400-Profit/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WAVESBTC/6UwhmDiu-Waves-very-LONG-October-10th/

The main developer of waves wrote:
Waves NG  is coming on October, 10th. it will be a game changer!

https://twitter.com/sasha35625/status/903139616861106176


best wishes!

1st tweet...waves NEXT GEN
3rd tweet... whats the NG stand for?

(Face plant in my keyboard)  

Anyway on topic...
speaking of waves
who bought the f*****g dip?

sorry i was busy!

It's a protocol , the Waves-NG protocol will make waves the fastes's world blockchain.! seriously guys that's amazing!!!!!!!!
here is the proof:

https://twitter.com/sasha35625

best wishes

[Romanknickl]

https://twitter.com/mentalist420/status/911529906600738816

[Elwar]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

Seems legit.

Personally I think we will move toward that $2500 in the next 6 months or so (maybe dipping below that due to paranoia/FUD) but work its way up toward those new huge numbers. The price did dip below $200/BTC but it was brief. I usually don't tell my friends to buy bitcoins but when the price was $225 I got on Facebook and said "buy now, trust me". I think maybe 1 or 2 people listened.
Right now, even though I believe the price could go down over the course of the next year I just tell people that ask me...do you want to double your money by 2020? If so, buy bitcoins. But don't just buy to double your money, learn how to use it and spend it, save money on Amazon, don't pay exchange fees when you travel to another country, etc.

[Heater]

The price is now 3773, thanks to my new Wemos D1

[LewisPirenne]

Cryptosteel is nice in that you can "encrypt" the private key via some simple operation, e.g. change capitalization; shift alphabets, e.g. A to D, E to H, Z to C; or only to a few alphanumeric in the sequence based on something only you would know, e.g. grandma's birthday.  The point is not to make the code unbreakable, but to buy you enough time so that once you get back to safety and have access to your paper wallet backup, you can tx away the hoard. 

But the main problem is that losing Crytosteel to thugs would be even more dangerous than losing Trezor/Ledger Nano S.  Since if the thugs have Electrum available, they can sweep the key right away and find out that something has been done to the key.  Then it is going to be hard to talk one's way out of the mess. 

[Elwar]

Cryptosteel is nice in that you can "encrypt" the private key via some simple operation, e.g. change capitalization; shift alphabets, e.g. A to D, E to H, Z to C; or only to a few alphanumeric in the sequence based on something only you would know, e.g. grandma's birthday.  The point is not to make the code unbreakable, but to buy you enough time so that once you get back to safety and have access to your paper wallet backup, you can tx away the hoard. 

But the main problem is that losing Crytosteel to thugs would be even more dangerous than losing Trezor/Ledger Nano S.  Since if the thugs have Electrum available, they can sweep the key right away and find out that something has been done to the key.  Then it is going to be hard to talk one's way out of the mess. 

True. But I don't see moving from country to country as bringing bitcoins with you. Bitcoins are just an account. It would be like bringing your bank account password across the border.

[jbreher]

I can tell you from my experience ...

And I can tell you from experience that whatever you think you know about some canonical market is absolutely inapplicable here.

That is nonsense , of course each market is different, but the principle of mean reversion always applies, especially to currencies.

It's a random walk with some biases that persist which can be used to predict the x+1 datapoint if you were a HFT trader, or even go into the orderbook and play with the tick data. There are plenty of quant tools available to play with that.

In my opinion the bull market is over. And it makes sense fundamentally too. This Chinese ban thing is getting hot and it will have big ramifications in the near future.

Umm hmm... and how much you up on Synereo? After how long? And how much of that decision process was 'x+1 datapoint' and or 'tick data'? What do your 'quant tools' tell you about AMP?

[RoomBot]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

Coinbase is so overwhelmed and backlogged that they haven't yet credited BTC holders (on or before the Aug. 1 fork) with their BCH, and won't for many more weeks.

They better learn how to scale first.

[criptix]

The price is now 3773, thanks to my new Wemos D1

That is some obsession with checking the price you have there 

[jojo69]

little $100 dump seems to be out of steam already

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

little $100 dump seems to be out of steam already

[jojo69]

meh, I don't even consider $100 swing tradable, my buy and sell positions are $800 apart

[profitgenerator212]

But I don't even care if you believe in me or not. I have put out my opinions, everyone does what he wants with them. I don't care if you lose or win money at this point. I know I will make money if the market goes down.

You really think that you can outmaneuver DCG and other whales? I certainly hope that you don't plan on margin shorting this shit. Rest assured, the whales will quietly close their shorts before you and then squeeze you out of your short to buy their expensive coins at the top of the next sucker's rally. Good luck trying to figure out this volatile and illiquid market, that can be manipulated at the whim of whales. These "whales" don't even need to have a billion USD in fiat/BTC. A few 10s of millions of USD worth should do the trick, if that.  

It would be easy.

thing is, we have been hearing this EXACT same shit since the $32 "bubble"

shit, I sold 100 BTC at, wait for it, $13 each, to "lock in" profits

let's just say I am unlikely to listen to that kind of advise again

Not from me. I have been bullish on BTC until 2017. Now I think the bullish trend is about to end.

Don't be ridiculous.  No one is saying that the market is going go up forever, even though we are currently in an upwards trajectory and currently in a bull market.  Still way too fucking early to be saying that the bull market has come to an end, even though it could come to an end at any time...

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.

How is that not a silly exageration?

There is such a thing as cut and paste, and there is also such a thing as explanation..  Apparently you are too good to attempt either one.

I really hate to explain myself multiple times, and I really dont care what you believe. I have made my case, now we wait and see what happens.

[Icygreen]

Seems legit.

 don't pay exchange fees when you travel to another country, etc.

Have you been able to exchange BTC to local currencies in SE Asia? If so, please share.  I'd be particularly interested in Thailand and Vietnam. Localbitcoin.com is not what I'm looking for but rather the ability to exchange with a gold shop/money changer type scenario.  When this happens bitcoin will be super useful to me.

[jojo69]

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.

How is that not a silly exageration?

I could go on, but the real point is that you seem to be accusing us of saying "it's different this time" when actually we are saying exactly the opposite

[rjclarke2000]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

This is a great theory here Torque. I like your thinking!

[profitgenerator212]

I could go on, but the real point is that you seem to be accusing us of saying "it's different this time" when actually we are saying exactly the opposite

So what are you implying that the USD will go into hyperinflation overnight?

That is silly to assume, it has plenty of backing, one of it is a huge military political influence. If the USD were to fall really the world would go with it basically.

So no the USD will not go into hyperinflation certainly not in the next 20-30 years.