Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[conspirosphere.tk]

it's getting boring. We need an intervention by... Dildoman!

[fabiorem]

Bankster shills are funny.

We dont need hyperinflation for bitcoin to reach 1m each.

We only need market capitalization.

And as long as there are derivatives, capitalization can go on to infinity, with a minimal inflation.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Alts are a sea of green. This is no bear market.

[Meuh6879]

Prediction.

[bones261]

But I don't even care if you believe in me or not. I have put out my opinions, everyone does what he wants with them. I don't care if you lose or win money at this point. I know I will make money if the market goes down.

You really think that you can outmaneuver DCG and other whales? I certainly hope that you don't plan on margin shorting this shit. Rest assured, the whales will quietly close their shorts before you and then squeeze you out of your short to buy their expensive coins at the top of the next sucker's rally. Good luck trying to figure out this volatile and illiquid market, that can be manipulated at the whim of whales. These "whales" don't even need to have a billion USD in fiat/BTC. A few 10s of millions of USD worth should do the trick, if that.  

It would be easy.

A few days ago, lots of the twitter peeps that I follow were encouraging people to go on over to BitMEX and short the crap out of BTC. Many people ended up getting rekt with dead cat bounces. Good luck to you. I hope that your "system" is a real harpoon whale killer. Needless to say, many of those same twitter peeps now have the wind knocked out of their sails.  Reminds me of Moby Dick. The whale wins in the end.

[fluidjax]

re: $800 rise a few days back, former financial services regulator Bart Chilton says

There’s no rational reason for such moves other than some are efforting (successfully, to date) to buoy prices and calm otherwise edgy and excitable bitcoin investors.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-volatility-due-regulatory-blind-spot-claims-fmr-cftc-official/

If the manipulation is true, and its not a natural bounce, it means shorting or expecting cheaper coins anytime soon may not be a good strategy, expect in the unlikely event we get another catastrophic news event and the manipulators refuse to double down.

[gembitz]

re: $800 rise a few days back, former financial services regulator Bart Chilton says

There’s no rational reason for such moves other than some are efforting (successfully, to date) to buoy prices and calm otherwise edgy and excitable bitcoin investors.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-volatility-due-regulatory-blind-spot-claims-fmr-cftc-official/

If the manipulation is true, and its not a natural bounce, it means shorting or expecting cheaper coins anytime soon may not be a good strategy, expect in the unlikely event we get another catastrophic news event and the manipulators refuse to double down.

what he doesn't get is that bitcoin enhances transparency enabling investors to see their coins(shares) actually move !!  ~fool missed the dip?

[centralbanksequalsbombs]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:

What say any of you to the following?

Efforts by any country's central bank or government to regulate bitcoin (ie make illegal or legalizing) will accelerate that country's demise of fiat value. These costs of such attempts and many other costs are absorbed by monetary inflation - making fiat even more worthless over time. Fiat system has been broken for decades. Bitcoin however had reached escape velocity globally 4-years ago in 2013 thus will continue to rise & be adopted as it is the only escape from financial slavery and an opt-out of war-making, slave-labor producing central bank regimes.

Fiat around the world is heavily infested and broken from the burdens of:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-insurance fraud
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-false claims (outside of insurance)
-chargebacks
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

[Ludwig Von]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:

What say any of you to the following?

Efforts by any country's central bank or government to regulate bitcoin (ie make illegal or legalizing) will accelerate that country's demise of fiat value. These costs of such attempts and many other costs are absorbed by monetary inflation - making fiat even more worthless over time. Fiat system has been broken for decades. Bitcoin however had reached escape velocity globally 4-years ago in 2013 thus will continue to rise & be adopted as it is the only escape from financial slavery and an opt-out of war-making, slave-labor producing central bank regimes.

Fiat around the world is heavily infested and broken from the burdens of:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-insurance fraud
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-false claims (outside of insurance)
-chargebacks
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

This is what happens when corruption goes awkward and it doesn 't matter what ideology, has nothing to do with it... . So just wait and see for the first of the "Other" systems country 's going all the way... .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/insiders-view-bitcoinization-venezuela

[Wekkel]

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.[/size]

To rhyme with this article, Bitcoin:

• is not held as a reserve yet (we are slowly making steps in this direction, for instance with solutions like TenX whereby people hold in crypto but can spend in fiat)
• is not used to take out loans (the reason is simple: much to risky for a debtor to take a debt denominated in Bitcoin, as the price may rise astronomically

The price of Bitcoin should be much higher and the rate much more stable before both these elements become more prevalent. Bitcoin is taking baby steps in that direction on its journey to a grown-up currency.

And debt denominated in Bitcoin will probably never be very popular, because monetary inflation will - in the end - be nearly absent.

[triads]

Or then again, maybe the bounce was just a perfect
touch of the .786 retracement level at $3,000...

[jojo69]

I would still like to see a real test of the medium term log support line in this short term bear before I am happy to call it over.  The low spike on the 14th was ~$270 shy of a real test.  Of course, that line is rising all the time, I currently put it around $2870, crossing our current downtrend on or about Oct 11.

[RoomBot]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

not bad for having some clue, but i think you should make some adjustments for diminishing supply as well

Well, my unscientific back-of-the-napkin model does kind of take havings roughly every 4 years into account. It sort of assumes that we have a halving event 6-12 months before a new major run up. Otherwise, I think it would take roughly 10X more accounts for a 10X increase in price floor.

Even with an exponential growth model, it seems that there is a throttle bottleneck to how fast Bitcoin popularity and usage will ramp. I think it has a lot to do with the fact that participating in the Bitcoin ecosystem is neither free (must pay-to-play) nor currently open to everyone (e.g., in order to get access to btc through main brokerage channels you must be 18+ years old, you must have a bank account, you must supply proper identification, etc., etc.). As well as the skeptical, tentative nature of an emerging new asset class, so much media press negativity, draconian regulations, etc.

There are still plenty of ways to get around all that.

www.localbitcoins.com-type services.  Peer-to-peer gifts, sales, trades & exchanges on the Blockchain.

[Ibian]

Fiat system has been broken for decades.

Not merely for decades, from the very beginning. Fiat systems always fail, without exception. They are designed that way. And this time will be the biggest fiat bubble in all of history. It will be glorious.

[Torque]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:
....

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.[/size]

This is what happens when corruption goes awkward and it doesn 't matter what ideology, has nothing to do with it... . So just wait and see for the first of the "Other" systems country 's going all the way... .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/insiders-view-bitcoinization-venezuela

I would add that citizens of all countries tend to be completely, 100% reactive to what is happening to them, as opposed to being proactive. They wait until things get really bad before outright defying their government and looking for other options. That is why right now Bitcoin is suddenly being seen as a more serious option to their native fiat in places like Venezuela, Greece, Italy, and Spain. In other countries, it's still being regarded as a strange novelty.

The oil EROI has turned a corner and is on a very serious and possibly rapid decline. But just because the oil barons and central banking oligarchs of the world can push their socialized losses to the countries with the least productive GDP output first, doesn't mean that countries like the U.S., U.K, China, Japan, and Germany are forever impervious. First deflation will kick in (what we are experiencing now), then rising inflation (next 10-15 years), then hyperinflation will finally kick in. This won't get fixed until all the world's major economies all default together, and then a global reset will happen. At that point, deflationary assets will reset much higher in relative fiat value terms. Hopefully at that point, the Fed and central banking will collapse altogether.

I for one see where the puck is heading, which is why I chose to get involved with Bitcoin four years ago to protect my wealth, instead of waiting until it gets really bad in my country. Which could still be a decade or two away.

[Ludwig Von]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:
....

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.[/size]

This is what happens when corruption goes awkward and it doesn 't matter what ideology, has nothing to do with it... . So just wait and see for the first of the "Other" systems country 's going all the way... .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/insiders-view-bitcoinization-venezuela

I would add that citizens of all countries tend to be completely, 100% reactive to what is happening to them, as opposed to being proactive. They wait until things get really bad before outright defying their government and looking for other options. That is why right now Bitcoin is suddenly being seen as a more serious option to their native fiat in places like Venezuela, Greece, Italy, and Spain. In other countries, it's still being regarded as a strange novelty.

The oil EROI has turned a corner and is on a very serious and possibly rapid decline. But just because the oil barons and central banking oligarchs of the world can push their socialized losses to the countries with the least productive GDP output first, doesn't mean that countries like the U.S., U.K, China, Japan, and Germany are forever impervious. First deflation will kick in (what we are experiencing now), then rising inflation (next 10-15 years), then hyperinflation will finally kick in. This won't get fixed until all the world's major economies all default together, and then a global reset will happen. At that point, deflationary assets will reset much higher in relative fiat value terms. Hopefully at that point, the Fed and central banking will collapse altogether.

I for one see where the puck is heading, which is why I chose to get involved with Bitcoin four years ago to protect my wealth, instead of waiting until it gets really bad in my country. Which could still be a decade or two away.

Well, the native fiat from Italy, Spain and Greece happens to be the same as for Germany... . So we have inflation (lower real income for the working people) and deflation (lower cost of capital thanks to free funny money from the central banks) all at the same time. It is so bizarre there even is no term for, stagflation is not adequate. Debtflation might be closest... .

[RoomBot]

Fiat system has been broken for decades.

Not merely for decades, from the very beginning. Fiat systems always fail, without exception. They are designed that way. And this time will be the biggest fiat bubble in all of history. It will be glorious.

At 40% interest, the Federal Reserve will keep it going as long as possible.

What a deal!  They get $1.40 for every dollar they print.

When US can't pay for all of that, they just print more.
at 40% interest.

Guess who really pays for it?

I    BTC

[Arriemoller]

JPM/Daimon reported for market manipulation.

"The company says it has filed a ‘market abuse’ report with the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, after JP Morgan’s team purchased bitcoin derivative notes for clients on the Stockholm-based exchange Nasdaq Nordic. Schweitzer says the fact that JP Morgan purchased the bitcoin exchange-traded notes before and after the chief executive’s public statements, it “smells like market manipulation.”"

https://news.bitcoin.com/jamie-dimons-bitcoin-statements-reported-as-market-abuse-in-sweden/?utm_source=Bitcoin.com+Subscribers&utm_campaign=d3595050b1-Daily+Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ea978414cb-d3595050b1-215678221&goal=0_ea978414cb-d3595050b1-215678221&mc_cid=d3595050b1&mc_eid=6b9c845fce

[chennan]

-snip-

Fiat around the world is heavily infested and broken from the burdens of:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-insurance fraud
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-false claims (outside of insurance)
-chargebacks
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

I feel that if Bitcoin becomes the "new monetary system of the future" it will become vulnerable to get tied into those burdens you speak of.  As long as Bitcoin remains limited with a scheduled supply curve, and not have the system go back into the "gold standard notes -> fiat notes" again... we'll be fine in that future monetary system.

[JayJuanGee]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:

What say any of you to the following?

Efforts by any country's central bank or government to regulate bitcoin (ie make illegal or legalizing) will accelerate that country's demise of fiat value. These costs of such attempts and many other costs are absorbed by monetary inflation - making fiat even more worthless over time. Fiat system has been broken for decades. Bitcoin however had reached escape velocity globally 4-years ago in 2013 thus will continue to rise & be adopted as it is the only escape from financial slavery and an opt-out of war-making, slave-labor producing central bank regimes.

Fiat around the world is heavily infested and broken from the burdens of:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-insurance fraud
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-false claims (outside of insurance)
-chargebacks
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

Thanks for recognizing the posts of torque and me... You know a decent proportion of our posts battle each other... hahahahaha..   

Regarding your substantive points:  I doubt that it is logically consistent to assert that all of the items on your list are inherently bad regarding status quo fiat systems. Not only is there a mixture of good and bad, even in a kind of revolutionary scenario it is likely to take a minimum of 20 years to purge and adapt these kinds of various systems to some more equitable things that might be accomplishable through bitcoin and/or other cryptos.  I doubt that a libertarian vision that completely removes government (and or public) input would be able to accomplish a fair society.

Don't get me wrong, bitcoin is likely to play a large part in the evolution of these various systems in the direction that you suggest - but surely it is going to take a lot of time and perhaps a few battles that include lots of blood, tears and sweat... and surely no clear and/or direct path from point A to point B.