Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I would still like to see a real test of the medium term log support line in this short term bear before I am happy to call it over.  The low spike on the 14th was ~$270 shy of a real test.  Of course, that line is rising all the time, I currently put it around $2870, crossing our current downtrend on or about Oct 11.

And, if you don't get that, then what you gonna do, jojo69?  Throw a temper tantrum?  hahahaha  







just kidding... I am just kidding, come on, jojo69.  Can't you take a joke?  



O.k... let's get serious for a second:  Don't we already recognize that bitcoin does not follow any of these kinds of rules... sure, it could be true that another lower test is healthy - but even if we do not get such a test, we can be healthy also, right?  

If we don't get another test of the lower, then likely the upper will be less strong - but so what?  I doubt that failure to go down again would actually stop prices from going up, if there is such momentum.... And a question remains about what kind of confidence there is and if a lot of this China FUD is continuing to put a sufficient amount of damper on the margins regarding the quantity of BTC that bull whales and the masses are willing to purchase at these prices and higher prices?

Actually, the quantity of bear FUD causes me a bit more bullishness in my own personal perspective - even though I am still kind of teetering on more or less a 50/50 perspective, with maybe only slight leanings on the bullish side of the ledger.

[bankpower]

3669$ and yet no signs of upcoming pumps...

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

3669$ and yet no signs of upcoming pumps...

You're supposed to be shuffling through the alt market. Don't you follow people on the Twitter?

[Ibian]

3669$ and yet no signs of upcoming pumps...

You're supposed to be shuffling through the alt market. Don't you follow people on the Twitter?

Twitter is cancer.

[conspirosphere.tk]

But just because the oil barons and central banking oligarchs of the world can push their socialized losses to the countries with the least productive GDP output first, doesn't mean that countries like the U.S., U.K, China, Japan, and Germany are forever impervious. First deflation will kick in (what we are experiencing now), then rising inflation (next 10-15 years), then hyperinflation will finally kick in. This won't get fixed until all the world's major economies all default together, and then a global reset will happen. At that point, deflationary assets will reset much higher in relative fiat value terms. Hopefully at that point, the Fed and central banking will collapse altogether.

I for one see where the puck is heading, which is why I chose to get involved with Bitcoin four years ago to protect my wealth, instead of waiting until it gets really bad in my country. Which could still be a decade or two away.

Their game is more subtle: TPTB are already defaulting gradually on selected sections of the population (typically the younger and disorganized) by slashing their current and future benefits and loading them with debt while keeping every sort of benefits for the older generations (boomers, retired) who tend to be more organized, relatively insider, and who keep voting for their free sh*t and for screwing their nephews.  Same for inflation/deflation: TPTB will keep pumping the assets of the 1% (blue chip stocks and bonds) and let the typical assets of the masses (residential real estate to say one) boom and bust going with the cycle.

But maybe it's always been a generational game, where the older ones try to enslave or sell in slavery the younger since biblical times. And that's why they used to try to encourage the reproduction of our specie: ultimately there is always a need of masses of slaves, ideally voluntary slaves, blind to their chains.

[Torque]

Well, the native fiat from Italy, Spain and Greece happens to be the same as for Germany... . So we have inflation (lower real income for the working people) and deflation (lower cost of capital thanks to free funny money from the central banks) all at the same time. It is so bizarre there even is no term for, stagflation is not adequate. Debtflation might be closest... .

We have that in the U.S. too. Most people haven't see a wage increase here for 8 years, and if they have they got a little 2-3% bump last year maybe. But since 2009, the price of things like houses, cars, electronics, and utilities has drifted up along with a fake stock market recovery but not in relation to wages. Wages have for the most part remained flat for the better part of 8 years. Health care premiums have doubled from a decade ago. Internet access is up 200%. Cell phones are up 300% and cellular plans are up 200%. Utilities are easily 30-40% higher than they were in 2009. Now we are starting to things like food drift up higher a little bit. Of course, the Fed doesn't count things like utilities and food in their inflation calculations.

Most people are loaded with debt (house, cars, credit cards, student loans, etc.) and have hit peak debt. So they are just grateful to have a job where their wage isn't really increasing than no job at all. Some are probably trying to pay their debts down. But the question becomes, when are most people going to have that light bulb moment when they realize "OMG, my salary is not going up! It may never go up again from here. At this rate, I am never going to pay off my debts. Meanwhile, my health care premium continues to go up. I can also see that the price of things like houses, cars, food, utilities, internet, cell phone, entertainment like movie tickets, vacations, etc. are drifting higher every year. By the time I am old, I will have no retirement saved up at all."

Eventually, inflation of everyday things will accelerate while wages continue to remain flat or perhaps even decrease. Inflation is like an insidious disease, and when it begins to run away, it quickly eats away at all your saved hard work. The analogy of the frog in the boiling pot comes to mind... you don't notice until it is too late (you're dead).

[El duderino_]

END list, good luck!

19/9 rayx12 
24/9 kidbitter*
25/9 binaryreign*
26/9 player99
27/9 xhomerx10
28/9 khufuking
29/9 jhayzxenon*
30/9 yermom
01/10 teamtarp*
02/10 bitchick *
03/10 ^BuTcH^
04/10 minermannc
05/10 punisher1314*
06/10 jimbo Toronto*
07/10 player514*
09/10 Oinas*
10/10 bikerlezno*     LAST WINNER
11/10 ted e. bare
12/10 harrymmmm*
13/10 cryptoqueeen*
14/10 bitcoinaire*
15/10 ludwigvon*
16/10 BitchicksHusband*
17/10 shroomskit_disgrace
18/10 dakustaking76
19/10 birobob*
20/10 leowonderful
21/10 paashaas
22/10 cmacwiz*
23/10 spaceman_spiff_original*
24/10 colonel panic
25/10 soullyG
26/10 weltmaster*
27/10 vroom
28/10 entons*
29/10 roombot*
30/10 notme*
31/10 twocorn
01/11 YamashitaRen
02/11 orpington
03/11 Haciendo*
04/11 lilloboy
05/11 jojo69*
06/11 d_eddie*
07/11 empowering*
08/11 northyplole*
09/11 podyx*
10/11 u9y42*
11/11 starving_marvin
12/11 sirazimuth*
13/11 dotto*
14/11 hazukison*
15/11 organic*
16/11 Heater*
17/11 foxygoxy*
18/11 600watt
19/11 arriemoller
20/11 drbrockcoin*
21/11 icygreen*
22/11 rakessh
23/11 erisdiscordia
24/11 oblox*
25/11 mfort312*
26/11 globbo*
27/11 lfc_bitcoin
28/11 conspirosphere.tk*
29/11 rjclarck2000
30/11 last of the v8s *
01/12 newworldcoiner*
02/12 souspeed*
03/12 jaapgvk
04/12 sgk*
05/12 fluidjax
07/12 free-bit.co.in
08/12 imbatman
09/12 yonton
10/12 fragout*
11/12 itod
12/12 lontonbit*
13/12 CistaCista
14/12 cAPSLOCK
15/12 philivey
16/12 marcus_of_augustus*
17/12 mattimann
18/12 coincube*
24/12 bones261*
25/12 mndan
26/12 karatma1*
28/12 deathangel*
30/12 erre
31/12 elwar
01/01/2018 lewis pirenne*
02/01/2018 addressed*
03/01/2018 bathy
05/01/2018 bitcoin psycho
06/01/2018 chowhan
07/01/2018 fabiorem*
18/01/2018 raja_mbz*
21/12 2dogs
22/01/2018 _javi_
26/01/2018 kurious*
28/01/2018 steelboy*
29/01/2018 alcohodl
01/02/2018 cristitcm
18/02/2018 in the silence
20/04/2018 fractal universe*
15/03/2018 Carl85
15/05/2018 oldtimegin*
15/06/2018 samson
16/08/2018 samarkand

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

ATH is tomorrow. Because Twitter.

[profitgenerator212]

A few days ago, lots of the twitter peeps that I follow were encouraging people to go on over to BitMEX and short the crap out of BTC. Many people ended up getting rekt with dead cat bounces. Good luck to you. I hope that your "system" is a real harpoon whale killer. Needless to say, many of those same twitter peeps now have the wind knocked out of their sails.  Reminds me of Moby Dick. The whale wins in the end.

I'm not shorting via a CFD position on an exchange, via margin trading.

I am doing a manual short using SBD to keep my purchasing power while BTC/USD potentially goes down. It's less risky that way (and no counterparty risk either):

https://steemit.com/money/@profitgenerator/profit-from-crypto-crash

[savetherainforest]

Is Catalonia going to adopt bitcoin and replace the Euro??    

[conspirosphere.tk]

I'm not shorting via a CFD position on an exchange, via margin trading.

I am doing a manual short using SBD to keep my purchasing power while BTC/USD potentially goes down. It's less risky that way (and no counterparty risk either):

https://steemit.com/money/@profitgenerator/profit-from-crypto-crash

Good look with shorting at the bottom. Enjoy hodling your fiat.

[TwoCorn]

Well, the native fiat from Italy, Spain and Greece happens to be the same as for Germany... . So we have inflation (lower real income for the working people) and deflation (lower cost of capital thanks to free funny money from the central banks) all at the same time. It is so bizarre there even is no term for, stagflation is not adequate. Debtflation might be closest... .

We have that in the U.S. too. Most people haven't see a wage increase here for 8 years, and if they have they got a little 2-3% bump last year maybe. But since 2009, the price of things like houses, cars, electronics, and utilities has drifted up along with a fake stock market recovery but not in relation to wages. Wages have for the most part remained flat for the better part of 8 years. Health care premiums have doubled from a decade ago. Internet access is up 200%. Cell phones are up 300% and cellular plans are up 200%. Utilities are easily 30-40% higher than they were in 2009. Now we are starting to things like food drift up higher a little bit. Of course, the Fed doesn't count things like utilities and food in their inflation calculations.

Most people are loaded with debt (house, cars, credit cards, student loans, etc.) and have hit peak debt. So they are just grateful to have a job where their wage isn't really increasing than no job at all. Some are probably trying to pay their debts down. But the question becomes, when are most people going to have that light bulb moment when they realize "OMG, my salary is not going up! It may never go up again from here. At this rate, I am never going to pay off my debts. Meanwhile, my health care premium continues to go up. I can also see that the price of things like houses, cars, food, utilities, internet, cell phone, entertainment like movie tickets, vacations, etc. are drifting higher every year. By the time I am old, I will have no retirement saved up at all."

Eventually, inflation of everyday things will accelerate while wages continue to remain flat or perhaps even decrease. Inflation is like an insidious disease, and when it begins to run away, it quickly eats away at all your saved hard work. The analogy of the frog in the boiling pot comes to mind... you don't notice until it is too late (you're dead).

Hit the nail on the head. I haven't seen a raise in my 'job' in 9 years, not to mention they cut my hours just enough so that I could no longer get health insurance. Fortunately I have other income and in fact I'm on the verge of ditching that job forever in favor a crypto-based venture. But most people are years away from seeing or even understanding what is happening to them. They're still looking to politicians to fix things.

[pfrtlpfmpf]

I must say, i changed from Polo (no support, and the withdrawal limit is a joke) to Bitfinex, and i´m not looking back !
Offtopic, i know, but just wanted you guys to know . . . Those little Hongkongers are great !

This the wall observer thread, or not ?

[jojo69]

ultimately there is always a need of masses of slaves, ideally voluntary slaves, blind to their chains.

No.

It is true that this used to be the case, but now we are right on the cusp of being able to automate most of the services the rich require.  This, of course, renders the mass of excess human population nothing more than a troublesome liability.

The trick going forward is figuring out how to not get culled.

[conspirosphere.tk]

The trick going forward is figuring out how to not get culled.

At the top of the list of To-be-culled are the rebels and the out of control, so try to stay underground as a general rule.

[JayJuanGee]

From what I have seen, it seems as though the skyward shots are directly preceded by two or more weekly red candles.  I think it's time to strap in again. HODLn'!

edit: sorry...cant attach an image since I'm on an old tablet with bad memory (both of ours)

Well you are NOT fucking going to get two or more preceding weekly red candles, because currently, under present facts, we only have one preceding red weekly candle and we are in the middle of a second weekly candle that happens to currently be red (and price needs to go above $4250 for this week's currently red candle to transform into green - and we are only about half way into this week's candle)...


Your point about returning up on a kind of rocket (from here), may or may not happen...  I would not be surprised either way, at this point.  It seems a bit unclear at this point whether the bears are exhausted and whether enough FUD has been effectively disseminated in order to cause regular folks to panic dump, after already going through an approximately 25% correction...  as we stand, currently.

 You speak as if I WANT 2 weekly red candles and I don't really care so much for the red as I prefer the green.  Also, what if my  chart is set up such that a week started on August 28th?  I am seeing red... More specifically, 2 red weekly candles and if those lead to a rocketing skyward if only by coincidence, I will still celebrate.
 

You don't select your own week.. we tend to use standards.. .such as bitstamp and bitcoinwisdom...   If you are using some other standard, then you should point that out in order that others understand what you are saying.  right?

 If I pull up bitcoinwisdom and select weekly, I see two red candles and one is getting bigger.  What do you see?!

O.k.. at least we are on the same page, then.

One red candle is for last week and the other red candle is for the week that we are currently in.

The weekly candle on that platform closes at midnight sunday Universal Time (UT).

By the way, it would not be accurate to talk about past weekly candles when referring to a current week, even if odds might be pretty decent that this week will turn out red.  Actually the odds of this week's candle remaining red are greater now, then they were when you had made the first post in this thread of discussion.

Thanks, I understand now.  I'm not a trader; I'm a hodler.  I know just enough about a technical chart to be dangerous.

 So, we got our (at least) 2 weekly red candles.   Moon in 3...2...1...

Yes. Agreed.  It appears that last week's candle closed at about $3670, so this week's candle will remain green, unless the price drops below $3670, and at this point, it seems pretty decent odds that this week's candle will be green, no?  We still have nearly 6 days, to find out (and we know that a lot can happen in bitcoinlandia in 6 days -    )

By the way, xhomerx10, I understand that you were talking about the color of the weekly candles, and I have had other threads of discussions with posters about trade volume too, and how that trade volume is depicted in weekly candles.

And, part of my point has frequently been that we will frequently come to faulty conclusions if we attempt to look at trade volume in short intervals, even on the daily.  However, the weekly candles (Stamp on bitcoinwisdom), show that trade volume has been  up for about 20 weeks in a row (sure there were a couple of less dramatic volume levels in there but overall UP).  So we see that there was a bit of an extra trade volume spike in the past couple of weeks, and usually trade volume will not necessarily just suddenly drop off - however, if we were to see a sudden drop off and prices were to trickle up this week, then that could be a bullish sign that bears are kind of exhausted of the battle - yet we know that some of the fuck-twad bears might be connected to a large amount of unlimited printable dollars, but still sooner or later, we could run out of folks willing to sell their coins. 

My thinking of the most logical conclusion is that this price battle and decent trade volume is going to continue in the near future - yet since I continue to have few clues about the intermediate price direction, I continue to prepare for either direction.... and I would not be surprised by a trickling up and then some kind of additional attempts to keep the price from going up, which may be tough for bears to battle off, even if they might be willing to lose some money to achieve their goals of keeping the price down.

 Thanks for the tips.  I'm not sure I'll ever have the confidence to do anything but hold though I have thought about playing around with the B_itCH coins I converted to Bitcoin to see if I can't turn that free Bitcoin into more

This week's candle just closed, and it was green.  it closed at about $3664, and it was a nail-biter until the closing.

Anyhow, when a weekly candle closes so close to being either one direction or another, i don't know how much meaning we can attribute to that - except perhaps that we have largely been flat for the past week - however, it does not show a trend either up or down (on a weekly basis) - merely that there is some kind of consolidation going on that could cause a subsequent break out that goes in either direction.

Because of my tentative conclusion that we remain in a bull market (contrary to the multiple bear shills that are trying to transform us into a "bear market" based on a mere 2 (or arguably 3) week correction from a $4980 ATH that was about 67% higher than the previous ATH ($2980).... so yeah a bunch of fucking seemingly goofballs engaged in premature judgement regarding an evolving and still seemingly bullish situation - so therefore there remains a slight edge towards a bull break-out scenario.. rather than the wishful thinking bear scenario (that remains possible - even though slightly less probable, based on real context rather than fantasy).

[LewisPirenne]

ultimately there is always a need of masses of slaves, ideally voluntary slaves, blind to their chains.

No.
It is true that this used to be the case, but now we are right on the cusp of being able to automate most of the services the rich require.  This, of course, renders the mass of excess human population nothing more than a troublesome liability.
The trick going forward is figuring out how to not get culled.

As far as I can tell, the ruling elite isn't going to cull the no/low skill population that's going to be soon made redundant by robots and AI, at least not any time soon. 

That's why there is all sort of talks in academic and political circles for "Universal Basic Income" (UBI) or "QE for the people".  This will be an excellent chance to introduce FEDCoin or CADCoin too as it would be easy to distribute that UBI if every citizen has a public key account with your favorite central bank (CB). 

The idea is to keep the bread part of "bread and circus" going a little while longer, since there are TONS of pissed off people around the world.  Not just Arab Spring or Venezuela type, but common citizen in US, Germany, France, and lots of the First Worlders too.  People are discontent and restless and hence when gateway to escape the fiat world opened (like Bitcoin), people pile in.

[ragnar0k]

Hit the nail on the head. I haven't seen a raise in my 'job' in 9 years, not to mention they cut my hours just enough so that I could no longer get health insurance. Fortunately I have other income and in fact I'm on the verge of ditching that job forever in favor a crypto-based venture. But most people are years away from seeing or even understanding what is happening to them. They're still looking to politicians to fix things.

Americans, you should all come to Europe!
Here, set aside a few exceptions, you can enjoy an unemploymnet rate between 9% and 20%
Then your raise is no longer a problem, rather, how long you can keep your job and how long you will stay unemployed before the pension XD

This not to mention the beautiful taxes though, you will work from Jan to August just to pay taxes for the joy of living in EU

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Hit the nail on the head. I haven't seen a raise in my 'job' in 9 years, not to mention they cut my hours just enough so that I could no longer get health insurance. Fortunately I have other income and in fact I'm on the verge of ditching that job forever in favor a crypto-based venture. But most people are years away from seeing or even understanding what is happening to them. They're still looking to politicians to fix things.

Americans, you should all come to Europe!
Here, set aside a few exceptions, you can enjoy an unemploymnet rate between 9% and 20%
Then your raise is no longer a problem, rather, how long you can keep your job and how long you will stay unemployed before the pension XD

This not to mention the beautiful taxes though, you will work from Jan to August just to pay taxes for the joy of living in EU

Don´t forget the Immigrants, it´s a wonderfull life !

[spiderbrain]

I would still like to see a real test of the medium term log support line in this short term bear before I am happy to call it over.  The low spike on the 14th was ~$270 shy of a real test.  Of course, that line is rising all the time, I currently put it around $2870, crossing our current downtrend on or about Oct 11.

It's at an interesting point. I think we only have a couple more days to know where this wedge is going, but I'm guessing from the walls maybe up.


If down they we get to try and pull the backup parachute in early october and you get your second test, which by that point will conveniently look like a double bottom =)