Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

This is today’s article from The Australian (a national newspaper and it is the most bullish thing I have read in the mainstream media.   You can skip most of it but read point 4.

Why Bitcoin Will Fail

As bitcoin — an alternative global currency — breaks another new record with a serious jump in value this week to cross $US8,300, one of the world’s biggest banks has spelled out why it won’t work.
 
Paris based BNP Paribas has gone beyond the usual arguments about crime, security and tax evasion to pinpoint why bitcoin can’t fulfil the promise at the heart of its success — to offer consumers an alternative means of exchange to banks and currencies as we know them.
 
The French Bank is reacting to the growing acceptance of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies around the world. In Japan, bitcoin has been accepted as “a legitimate method of payment,” while in the US, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is planning to trade bitcoin futures.
Here’s the main flaws from BNP Paribas:
 
1. It offers no lender of last resort — Every shaky European bank would certainly understand quickly the importance of this function in a currency. If there is a crisis, bitcoin has no well funded regulator to step in and cover losses. BNP says in that scenario consumers would rush to find real cash which could in turn create a run on banks, the biggest nightmare in the financial system.
 
2. Deflation — Though speculators love that there is only a finite number of bitcoins, this means you have the opposite of inflation as a looming problem. With just 16.7 million bitcoins in circulation, the risk of inflation is eliminated but deflation, already an issue in global trade, could cause a range of problems in the future.
3. Unreliable exchange of value — Bitcoin’s wildly fluctuating share price is perfect for traders but hell for consumers if they wish to use it in any significant fashion.
 
4. No profits for central banks — If bitcoin genuinely starts to replace cash as we know it central banks will lose a key source of income called seigniorage, which is the profit they get from printing money. No government will want to subsidise central banks which have lost a revenue source.
 
In short, BNP Paribas infers bitcoin could undermine the global monetary system as we know it. On that basis that bank suggests a global coordinated move to regulate bitcoin is on the cards. In Sydney, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver has also been looking at the issue. Usefully, Oliver says he does not
fully understand bitcoin (who really does?) and though he worries it is a bubble he also says there is every chance the value of bitcoin may keep going up for some time. Intriguingly, Oliver also floats the idea that bitcoin and its cryptocurrency variants may survive — or at least the blockchain technology behind them may survive. But Oliver believes the cryptocurrencies of the future will be official just like the legal tender of notes and coins of today.[/quote{

[itod]

This is today’s article from The Australian (a national newspaper and it is the most bullish thing I have read in the mainstream media.   You can skip most of it but read point 4.

Why Bitcoin Will Fail
...
 
4. No profits for central banks — If bitcoin genuinely starts to replace cash as we know it central banks will lose a key source of income called seigniorage, which is the profit they get from printing money. No government will want to subsidise central banks which have lost a revenue source.

What an argument! How come nobody thought of this before... Bitcoin doomed, never moon!

[Rosewater Foundation]

The author doesn't seem to appreciate how inevitable all this is.

[TERA2]

I predicted on here years ago that when you can buy Bitcoins with a normal brokerage, bitcoin would surge to $10K.  Now up at $8K we get news that BTC will be listed on CME? I dont know what to make of it now that we are already up here. Then the price moves just 10%? I guess insider knowledge of this is what was fueling the rally all along.

[Wekkel]

Meanwhile, alternatives for holding fiat are popping up on small scale. With TenX-like products, one can hold cryptocurrencies instead of fiat, while being able to spend seamlessly in day-2-day life with a bank card.

Right now, the volatility of cryptocurrencies is breath taking so I do not see it as an alternative for fiat (unless you know the game and expect the overall movement to be upwards the next few years). But at some point, cryptocurrencies will be large enough and spread out sufficiently to become beacons of tranquillity compared to fiat.

At least, that is the proposition if cryptocurrencies are supposed to solve a real problem.

Meanwhile, with the first steps into merging cryptocurrencies with the fiat currency world, I can work on my TenX Play.

[Rosewater Foundation]

The Token. Please forget about it for now:

the token is an ERC20 token, held in an ETH wallet

next

[HairyMaclairy]

I predicted on here years ago that when you can buy Bitcoins with a normal brokerage, bitcoin would surge to $10K.  Now up at $8K we get news that BTC will be listed on CME? I dont know what to make of it now that we are already up here. Then the price moves just 10%? I guess insider knowledge of this is what was fueling the rally all along.

Unfortunately the culture of hoarding (hodling) means we are suffering a paucity of coins.  Suggest you revise your prediction upwards. 

[gentlemand]

Why would any VC want to purchase usdt in volume in order to purchase other crypto's when they can just buy btc with fiat directly and not have the associated risks implied in the tether terms of service?

They want access to Bitfinex. For whatever reason it's still the most preferred platform for many people. I still don't get why you wouldn't buy with real dollars on Gemini and transfer BTC across but I am not other people.

[HairyMaclairy]

Update on my Iota withdrawal from Bitfinex: Nothing.
Pending for 44 hours after approval now. Sent three reminders on my support ticket. No reply.
Great.

IOTA is so much fail. Don't use this shit.

Sounds more like a problem with bitfinex...

I don’t like being a BFX tout but I have withdrawn bitcoin and monero from BFX in the past 24 hours and it has been completed next block. 

Hm. Interesting. I had trouble withdrawing iota from bitfinex myself but I can't say that I ever tried to withdraw anything else from there so I'll take your word for it.

Also. Smart call buying monero

Looks like it.  Monero up 15% today.  Just passed Neo on market cap, now 8th ranked crypto.  I don’t believe in BS tokens but I do like innovative currencies.  Only 0.2 of a billion to pass Iota as well.

[jonoiv]

I predicted on here years ago that when you can buy Bitcoins with a normal brokerage, bitcoin would surge to $10K.  Now up at $8K we get news that BTC will be listed on CME? I dont know what to make of it now that we are already up here. Then the price moves just 10%? I guess insider knowledge of this is what was fueling the rally all along.

Unfortunately the culture of hoarding (hodling) means we are suffering a paucity of coins.  Suggest you revise your prediction upwards. 

personally i think this is the last strong bull phase for bitcoin.  certainly at the moment to buy at 8250 and hope for a 5% rise.  Remember the last bubble, same people saying the same things. 

There are lots of other cryptos that do the same thing better, with more features, faster.  Some have genuine worth and serve an actual purpose.  This bubble IMHO is about to pop.  and lots of new bag holders will be born waiting for months / years for bitcoin to return to where it is. last peak was Dec 2013, 4 years later here we are.  usually the time between bubbles / peaks  is roughly 4 times longer each time.  so we could be looking at 16 years.    In that time im sure bitcoin will not be number 1 any longer. 

[HairyMaclairy]

So there’s $110 million on stamp in orders and 2300 coins on the books.  Which is about $47k in fiat for each coin.   So what would be a normal ratio?

[benjaminoo]

This is today’s article from The Australian (a national newspaper and it is the most bullish thing I have read in the mainstream media.   You can skip most of it but read point 4.

Why Bitcoin Will Fail
 
4. No profits for central banks — If bitcoin genuinely starts to replace cash as we know it central banks will lose a key source of income called seigniorage, which is the profit they get from printing money. No government will want to subsidise central banks which have lost a revenue source.
 

Isn't this EXACTLY what Bitcoin was created to challenge - governments and central banks that print money based on the decisions of a highly-placed few? They receive a source of income just by creating money out of thin air. And every bank along the way grabs a share of the profits until it reaches the citizens at the bottom of the chain, for whom the money was originally intended.

No wonder this bank has realized this threat to its existence.

[gentlemand]

usually the time between bubbles / peaks  is roughly 4 times longer each time.  so we could be looking at 16 years.    In that time im sure bitcoin will not be number 1 any longer.  

Anyone looking to past behaviour in a nine year old market that's constantly evolving and being discovered by new people is a large, pendulous, milky tit.

With stretch marks.

[jonoiv]

usually the time between bubbles / peaks  is roughly 4 times longer each time.  so we could be looking at 16 years.    In that time im sure bitcoin will not be number 1 any longer.  

Anyone looking to past behaviour in a nine year old market that's constantly evolving and being discovered by new people is a large, pendulous, milky tit.

With stretch marks.

thats what you guys say every single bubble. 

and bitcoin evolves does it?

[mattimann]

Anyone looking to past behaviour in a nine year old market that's constantly evolving and being discovered by new people is a large, pendulous, milky tit.

With stretch marks.
[/quote]

This is great

[gentlemand]

thats what you guys say every single bubble.  

and bitcoin evolves does it?

Well, that Segwit thing arrived if you hadn't noticed. More will spring from that.

I said nothing much during the previous bubble and I'm not saying much during this one either.

Once upon a time people insisted that it was inconceivable for Bitcoin to go below a previous ATH. It did that with ease in 2014. Then people identified some 234 day cycle and predicted an ATH in July 2015. Nope.

Anyone declaring anything based on Bitcoin history will be shown to be a silly sausage.

By far the most important evolution is the world's attitude and level of education towards Bitcoin and that's tearing along at present. Because of that anyone making predictions is a double tit.

We don't even know what the world will decide Bitcoin actually is yet.

You can't predict something that's coming up from nothing. Exchanges, regulations, attitudes, infrastructure, acceptance, it's all changing on a day by day basis.

A market that's a few hundred years old does have historical precedents to refer to as it's fully established. This isn't so it don't.

Predicting Bitcoin will die and alts will replace it is just as silly as predicting the opposite.

[Ibian]

This is today’s article from The Australian (a national newspaper and it is the most bullish thing I have read in the mainstream media.   You can skip most of it but read point 4.

Why Bitcoin Will Fail

As bitcoin — an alternative global currency — breaks another new record with a serious jump in value this week to cross $US8,300, one of the world’s biggest banks has spelled out why it won’t work.
 
Paris based BNP Paribas has gone beyond the usual arguments about crime, security and tax evasion to pinpoint why bitcoin can’t fulfil the promise at the heart of its success — to offer consumers an alternative means of exchange to banks and currencies as we know them.
 
The French Bank is reacting to the growing acceptance of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies around the world. In Japan, bitcoin has been accepted as “a legitimate method of payment,” while in the US, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is planning to trade bitcoin futures.
Here’s the main flaws from BNP Paribas:
 
1. It offers no lender of last resort — Every shaky European bank would certainly understand quickly the importance of this function in a currency. If there is a crisis, bitcoin has no well funded regulator to step in and cover losses. BNP says in that scenario consumers would rush to find real cash which could in turn create a run on banks, the biggest nightmare in the financial system.
 
2. Deflation — Though speculators love that there is only a finite number of bitcoins, this means you have the opposite of inflation as a looming problem. With just 16.7 million bitcoins in circulation, the risk of inflation is eliminated but deflation, already an issue in global trade, could cause a range of problems in the future.
3. Unreliable exchange of value — Bitcoin’s wildly fluctuating share price is perfect for traders but hell for consumers if they wish to use it in any significant fashion.
 
4. No profits for central banks — If bitcoin genuinely starts to replace cash as we know it central banks will lose a key source of income called seigniorage, which is the profit they get from printing money. No government will want to subsidise central banks which have lost a revenue source.
 
In short, BNP Paribas infers bitcoin could undermine the global monetary system as we know it. On that basis that bank suggests a global coordinated move to regulate bitcoin is on the cards. In Sydney, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver has also been looking at the issue. Usefully, Oliver says he does not
fully understand bitcoin (who really does?) and though he worries it is a bubble he also says there is every chance the value of bitcoin may keep going up for some time. Intriguingly, Oliver also floats the idea that bitcoin and its cryptocurrency variants may survive — or at least the blockchain technology behind them may survive. But Oliver believes the cryptocurrencies of the future will be official just like the legal tender of notes and coins of today.

Love the butthurt.

A bank run would not be a problem if banks actually had the money they pretend they have.

Deflation is a good thing for normal people, but bad for banks. The Establishment and The People will ever be at odds.

Fuck the banksters.

[HairyMaclairy]

usually the time between bubbles / peaks  is roughly 4 times longer each time.  so we could be looking at 16 years.    In that time im sure bitcoin will not be number 1 any longer.  

Anyone looking to past behaviour in a nine year old market that's constantly evolving and being discovered by new people is a large, pendulous, milky tit.

With stretch marks.

thats what you guys say every single bubble. 

and bitcoin evolves does it?

I’ve always wanted a pet bear.

[DonQuijote]

This is today’s article from The Australian (a national newspaper and it is the most bullish thing I have read in the mainstream media.   You can skip most of it but read point 4.

Why Bitcoin Will Fail
...
 
4. No profits for central banks — If bitcoin genuinely starts to replace cash as we know it central banks will lose a key source of income called seigniorage, which is the profit they get from printing money. No government will want to subsidise central banks which have lost a revenue source.

What an argument! How come nobody thought of this before... Bitcoin doomed, never moon!

Amazing argument 
We should sell, this experiment is over, run!!!
Why i didnt sell at 11$ years ago...

[yefi]

personally i think this is the last strong bull phase for bitcoin.  certainly at the moment to buy at 8250 and hope for a 5% rise.  Remember the last bubble, same people saying the same things.  

And of course your personal opinion is of exceptional importance, as a member with a dodgy post history (2 year hiatus?) and a record of being wiped out on margin.