Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gentlemand]

usually the time between bubbles / peaks  is roughly 4 times longer each time.  so we could be looking at 16 years.    In that time im sure bitcoin will not be number 1 any longer.  

Anyone looking to past behaviour in a nine year old market that's constantly evolving and being discovered by new people is a large, pendulous, milky tit.

With stretch marks.

[1715141882]

1715141882

[1715141882]

1715141882

[1715141882]

1715141882

[1715141882]

1715141882

[jonoiv]

usually the time between bubbles / peaks  is roughly 4 times longer each time.  so we could be looking at 16 years.    In that time im sure bitcoin will not be number 1 any longer.  

Anyone looking to past behaviour in a nine year old market that's constantly evolving and being discovered by new people is a large, pendulous, milky tit.

With stretch marks.

thats what you guys say every single bubble. 

and bitcoin evolves does it?

[mattimann]

Anyone looking to past behaviour in a nine year old market that's constantly evolving and being discovered by new people is a large, pendulous, milky tit.

With stretch marks.
[/quote]

This is great

[gentlemand]

thats what you guys say every single bubble.  

and bitcoin evolves does it?

Well, that Segwit thing arrived if you hadn't noticed. More will spring from that.

I said nothing much during the previous bubble and I'm not saying much during this one either.

Once upon a time people insisted that it was inconceivable for Bitcoin to go below a previous ATH. It did that with ease in 2014. Then people identified some 234 day cycle and predicted an ATH in July 2015. Nope.

Anyone declaring anything based on Bitcoin history will be shown to be a silly sausage.

By far the most important evolution is the world's attitude and level of education towards Bitcoin and that's tearing along at present. Because of that anyone making predictions is a double tit.

We don't even know what the world will decide Bitcoin actually is yet.

You can't predict something that's coming up from nothing. Exchanges, regulations, attitudes, infrastructure, acceptance, it's all changing on a day by day basis.

A market that's a few hundred years old does have historical precedents to refer to as it's fully established. This isn't so it don't.

Predicting Bitcoin will die and alts will replace it is just as silly as predicting the opposite.

[Ibian]

This is today’s article from The Australian (a national newspaper and it is the most bullish thing I have read in the mainstream media.   You can skip most of it but read point 4.

Why Bitcoin Will Fail

As bitcoin — an alternative global currency — breaks another new record with a serious jump in value this week to cross $US8,300, one of the world’s biggest banks has spelled out why it won’t work.
 
Paris based BNP Paribas has gone beyond the usual arguments about crime, security and tax evasion to pinpoint why bitcoin can’t fulfil the promise at the heart of its success — to offer consumers an alternative means of exchange to banks and currencies as we know them.
 
The French Bank is reacting to the growing acceptance of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies around the world. In Japan, bitcoin has been accepted as “a legitimate method of payment,” while in the US, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is planning to trade bitcoin futures.
Here’s the main flaws from BNP Paribas:
 
1. It offers no lender of last resort — Every shaky European bank would certainly understand quickly the importance of this function in a currency. If there is a crisis, bitcoin has no well funded regulator to step in and cover losses. BNP says in that scenario consumers would rush to find real cash which could in turn create a run on banks, the biggest nightmare in the financial system.
 
2. Deflation — Though speculators love that there is only a finite number of bitcoins, this means you have the opposite of inflation as a looming problem. With just 16.7 million bitcoins in circulation, the risk of inflation is eliminated but deflation, already an issue in global trade, could cause a range of problems in the future.
3. Unreliable exchange of value — Bitcoin’s wildly fluctuating share price is perfect for traders but hell for consumers if they wish to use it in any significant fashion.
 
4. No profits for central banks — If bitcoin genuinely starts to replace cash as we know it central banks will lose a key source of income called seigniorage, which is the profit they get from printing money. No government will want to subsidise central banks which have lost a revenue source.
 
In short, BNP Paribas infers bitcoin could undermine the global monetary system as we know it. On that basis that bank suggests a global coordinated move to regulate bitcoin is on the cards. In Sydney, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver has also been looking at the issue. Usefully, Oliver says he does not
fully understand bitcoin (who really does?) and though he worries it is a bubble he also says there is every chance the value of bitcoin may keep going up for some time. Intriguingly, Oliver also floats the idea that bitcoin and its cryptocurrency variants may survive — or at least the blockchain technology behind them may survive. But Oliver believes the cryptocurrencies of the future will be official just like the legal tender of notes and coins of today.

Love the butthurt.

A bank run would not be a problem if banks actually had the money they pretend they have.

Deflation is a good thing for normal people, but bad for banks. The Establishment and The People will ever be at odds.

Fuck the banksters.

[HairyMaclairy]

usually the time between bubbles / peaks  is roughly 4 times longer each time.  so we could be looking at 16 years.    In that time im sure bitcoin will not be number 1 any longer.  

Anyone looking to past behaviour in a nine year old market that's constantly evolving and being discovered by new people is a large, pendulous, milky tit.

With stretch marks.

thats what you guys say every single bubble. 

and bitcoin evolves does it?

I’ve always wanted a pet bear.

[DonQuijote]

This is today’s article from The Australian (a national newspaper and it is the most bullish thing I have read in the mainstream media.   You can skip most of it but read point 4.

Why Bitcoin Will Fail
...
 
4. No profits for central banks — If bitcoin genuinely starts to replace cash as we know it central banks will lose a key source of income called seigniorage, which is the profit they get from printing money. No government will want to subsidise central banks which have lost a revenue source.

What an argument! How come nobody thought of this before... Bitcoin doomed, never moon!

Amazing argument 
We should sell, this experiment is over, run!!!
Why i didnt sell at 11$ years ago...

[yefi]

personally i think this is the last strong bull phase for bitcoin.  certainly at the moment to buy at 8250 and hope for a 5% rise.  Remember the last bubble, same people saying the same things.  

And of course your personal opinion is of exceptional importance, as a member with a dodgy post history (2 year hiatus?) and a record of being wiped out on margin.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

This is today’s article from The Australian (a national newspaper and it is the most bullish thing I have read in the mainstream media.   You can skip most of it but read point 4.

Why Bitcoin Will Fail

As bitcoin — an alternative global currency — breaks another new record with a serious jump in value this week to cross $US8,300, one of the world’s biggest banks has spelled out why it won’t work.
 
Paris based BNP Paribas has gone beyond the usual arguments about crime, security and tax evasion to pinpoint why bitcoin can’t fulfil the promise at the heart of its success — to offer consumers an alternative means of exchange to banks and currencies as we know them.
 
The French Bank is reacting to the growing acceptance of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies around the world. In Japan, bitcoin has been accepted as “a legitimate method of payment,” while in the US, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is planning to trade bitcoin futures.
Here’s the main flaws from BNP Paribas:
 
1. It offers no lender of last resort — Every shaky European bank would certainly understand quickly the importance of this function in a currency. If there is a crisis, bitcoin has no well funded regulator to step in and cover losses. BNP says in that scenario consumers would rush to find real cash which could in turn create a run on banks, the biggest nightmare in the financial system.
 
2. Deflation — Though speculators love that there is only a finite number of bitcoins, this means you have the opposite of inflation as a looming problem. With just 16.7 million bitcoins in circulation, the risk of inflation is eliminated but deflation, already an issue in global trade, could cause a range of problems in the future.
3. Unreliable exchange of value — Bitcoin’s wildly fluctuating share price is perfect for traders but hell for consumers if they wish to use it in any significant fashion.
 
4. No profits for central banks — If bitcoin genuinely starts to replace cash as we know it central banks will lose a key source of income called seigniorage, which is the profit they get from printing money. No government will want to subsidise central banks which have lost a revenue source.
 
In short, BNP Paribas infers bitcoin could undermine the global monetary system as we know it. On that basis that bank suggests a global coordinated move to regulate bitcoin is on the cards. In Sydney, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver has also been looking at the issue. Usefully, Oliver says he does not
fully understand bitcoin (who really does?) and though he worries it is a bubble he also says there is every chance the value of bitcoin may keep going up for some time. Intriguingly, Oliver also floats the idea that bitcoin and its cryptocurrency variants may survive — or at least the blockchain technology behind them may survive. But Oliver believes the cryptocurrencies of the future will be official just like the legal tender of notes and coins of today.

Love the butthurt.

A bank run would not be a problem if banks actually had the money they pretend they have.

Deflation is a good thing for normal people, but bad for banks. The Establishment and The People will ever be at odds.

Fuck the banksters.

The last time I used a bank those dipshits tried to increase my interest rate on a student loan without informing me of it.
Then they tried to make it seem like the "better option", even though there was absolutely no benefit from switching the loan over other than a commission to the dumbass at the counter and additional money into the pockets of the bank.
When I destroyed them with the wonders of Mathematics and facts they became very quiet and didn't know how to react. What a fun day.

I wonder how many people they manage to scam with their "nice" attitudes.

So yeah, I hope banks will be obliterated by cryptos.

[jonoiv]

thats what you guys say every single bubble.  

and bitcoin evolves does it?

Well, that Segwit thing arrived if you hadn't noticed. More will spring from that.

I said nothing much during the previous bubble and I'm not saying much during this one either.

Once upon a time people insisted that it was inconceivable for Bitcoin to go below a previous ATH. It did that with ease in 2014. Then people identified some 234 day cycle and predicted an ATH in July 2015. Nope.

Anyone declaring anything based on Bitcoin history will be shown to be a silly sausage.

By far the most important evolution is the world's attitude and level of education towards Bitcoin and that's tearing along at present. Because of that anyone making predictions is a double tit.

We don't even know what the world will decide Bitcoin actually is yet.

You can't predict something that's coming up from nothing. Exchanges, regulations, attitudes, infrastructure, acceptance, it's all changing on a day by day basis.

A market that's a few hundred years old does have historical precedents to refer to as it's fully established. This isn't so it don't.

Predicting Bitcoin will die and alts will replace it is just as silly as predicting the opposite.

it wont die but it wont be number one.  and if you think segwit is a solution you need your head read.

call me what you want but i would not recommend to buy bitcoin now to friends and family.  its a long way down and regular first time investors will pay the price again, as the bitcoin mafia buy some more castles.

[Torque]

I said nothing much during the previous bubble and I'm not saying much during this one either.

Once upon a time people insisted that it was inconceivable for Bitcoin to go below a previous ATH. It did that with ease in 2014. Then people identified some 234 day cycle and predicted an ATH in July 2015. Nope.

Anyone declaring anything based on Bitcoin history will be shown to be a silly sausage.

Very true. We can be excited for what appears like more adoption and a subsequent price increase. But what we don't ever know is if the current price truly reflects a public buying demand or not. In 2013, it did not. Which is only something that you can see in hindsight, after a downturn and a subsequent bear market begins.

What I do know is that as the Bitcoin market cap gets bigger and bigger, it takes much more money to move the market, even with some leverage available. In the past with the market being so small and illiquid, there was much incentive by whales with deep pockets and massive 100x leverage to PnD the bitcoin market for a few months and then go short.

Now I think the reverse is true, in that there is more incentive for deep pockets to go long (i.e., as a true long investment) because getting a lot of REAL money back out quickly after a lot of buying in for several years would be difficult. The market is spread over so many exchanges now. The mass public can find avenues to buy in easily and quickly. Shorting is getting more dangerous. Plus, Bitcoin has proved itself to have real staying power as a real deflationary financial instrument, and not just an overnight flash-in-the-pan. The public's perception is changing.

call me what you want but i would not recommend to buy bitcoin now to friends and family.  its a long way down and regular first time investors will pay the price again, as the bitcoin mafia buy some more castles.

Thanks for revealing your deep seated, troll like nature

/ignore

[gentlemand]

it wont die but it wont be number one.  and if you think segwit is a solution you need your head read.

My one and only point is no one knows anything. Anyone making black and white moves based on their self declared dead cert predictions is more than likely going to get their arse handed to them.

There are more than enough examples of that on this very forum.

[RobSteward]

Very true. We can be excited for what appears like more adoption and a subsequent price increase. But what we don't ever know is if the current price truly reflects a public buying demand or not. In 2013, it did not. Which is only something that you can see in hindsight, after a downturn and a subsequent bear market begins.

The value of transactions is going up - but that does not reflect the fact that adoption "appears" to grow - as the price of BTC is going up the value of transactions is increasing naturally. Using the moving average of the number of transactions, there is no "greater trend of adoption" visible: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?daysAverageString=7

So my question would be: how do we judge adoption in main stream societies?

[gentlemand]

https://halongmining.com

A new ASIC manufacturer might be on the horizon.

[ragnar0k]

it wont die but it wont be number one.  and if you think segwit is a solution you need your head read.

call me what you want but i would not recommend to buy bitcoin now to friends and family.  its a long way down and regular first time investors will pay the price again, as the bitcoin mafia buy some more castles.

You might be hero or whatever but
- if you think people will choose features over the name/branding, then you know nothing about marketing
- if you think finance will choose innovation over stability and recognition, then you know nothing about finance

Sorry dude, I think you are misguided

[Torque]

Very true. We can be excited for what appears like more adoption and a subsequent price increase. But what we don't ever know is if the current price truly reflects a public buying demand or not. In 2013, it did not. Which is only something that you can see in hindsight, after a downturn and a subsequent bear market begins.

The value of transactions is going up - but that does not reflect the fact that adoption "appears" to grow - as the price of BTC is going up the value of transactions is increasing naturally. Using the moving average of the number of transactions, there is no "greater trend of adoption" visible: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?daysAverageString=7

So my question would be: how do we judge adoption in main stream societies?

That's difficult at Bitcoin's very early stage right now. Not much mercantile stuff going on yet with bitcoin.

So my thought is a simple one. I can look at the growth of bitcoin related accounts across the world, and simply refuse to believe that the majority of these new "adopters" are just day traders looking to make a quick buck. In my book buying and hodl-ing IS a form of adoption, but trading for more fiat really isn't.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

https://halongmining.com

A new ASIC manufacturer might be on the horizon.

I might be wrong, but I believe there was a new one in Japan as well?

[gentlemand]

I might be wrong, but I believe there was a new one in Japan as well?

I think that's been declared but absolutely nothing else so far. They're starting researching. This one exists.

[Coinnosaurus]

https://halongmining.com

A new ASIC manufacturer might be on the horizon.

or another scam company .. why the comments are  disabled on their yt channel?

[jonoiv]

it wont die but it wont be number one.  and if you think segwit is a solution you need your head read.

call me what you want but i would not recommend to buy bitcoin now to friends and family.  its a long way down and regular first time investors will pay the price again, as the bitcoin mafia buy some more castles.

You might be hero or whatever but
- if you think people will choose features over the name/branding, then you know nothing about marketing
- if you think finance will choose innovation over stability and recognition, then you know nothing about finance

Sorry dude, I think you are misguided

Yer hero, jr member means nothing, you're right.

I could be misguided, I'm not pretending to be the oracle.  Just there is no way on this earth i would recommend buying bitcoin at this time.  

I'm 95% that the bear market has just started. and it will be red candles for a long while.