Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

$88 here we come

I missed you so much

As our friend Blitz would say, "The Great Dollar Extraction" is on.

Are you getting 88 from the move up (before the bubble)?
Or are you extrapolating somewhere?

My number is 82 but as I've said, I don't know that I play a bounce there.
This could get violent as large holders might want to sell their coins before others.
After all, we are under 100, solidly now...

Are you saying 82 today or soon?

I only meant it could happen if we break 90 (solidly). I would say in the next few days it is VERY possible. I'm leaning towards probably.
I won't take part in any bounces unless the signs say it isn't fake - and that is hard to know. The order book is very manipulated.

[phoenix1]

I think it's time for us to honour someone ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

Go Proudhon, go ... ride that bear

[MAbtc]

Hi, 80s! We missed you (on Gox)!  

Less than 4k coins to break 88.

[nmersulypnem]

I've been doing some calculations... and there is a BTC price point which, if sustained, will drive MtGox bankrupt, imo.

Granted, these are based on some pretty rough assumptions, so let me know if you see any flaws.  Obviously, MtGox is a private company so they won't release their financials...

Yearly Costs:
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year

Revenues:
25,000K BTC average volume post Dwolla / USD Hiatus
Average of 0.5% commissions (most trades are algo or whale at 0.25% comm on each side)
= ~300K per month

At these values, any BTC price below 65$ USD will not sustain them financially.  Now, if you factor in any money seized in the Dwolla raid, and any money they may have prepaid, that pain point might be sooner.   Of course, the reverse is possible as well, and they might have stockpiled money from the boom/bust.  It's hard to say, but the point is that it is not negligible risk (hence the spread between them and other exchanges).  MtGox scaled up considerably when the boom started earlier this year and likely invested a lot in servers, people, services - after the Dwolla and USD hiatus, they may no longer be making enough in commissions to keep paying their bills / employees.

Just food for thought.  The BTC economy is putting a lot of faith in MtGox's ability to do proper/honest financial accounting / planning.

[Frozenlock]

I think it's time for us to honour someone ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

Go Proudhon, go ... ride that bear

The funny thing would be if he decided to stop being a bear and got hit hard by the recent downtrend.

[QuestionAuthority]

$88 here we come

I missed you so much

As our friend Blitz would say, "The Great Dollar Extraction" is on.

Are you getting 88 from the move up (before the bubble)?
Or are you extrapolating somewhere?

My number is 82 but as I've said, I don't know that I play a bounce there.
This could get violent as large holders might want to sell their coins before others.
After all, we are under 100, solidly now...

Are you saying 82 today or soon?

I only meant it could happen if we break 90 (solidly). I would say in the next few days it is VERY possible. I'm leaning towards probably.
I won't take part in any bounces unless the signs say it isn't fake - and that is hard to know. The order book is very manipulated.

Oh ok. I guess your right. I can't see buying through to 82 happening today but I can see it happening this week.

[Frozenlock]

Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year

150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!

[nmersulypnem]

Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year

150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!

This is total cost to the company - not just salary.  I would guess average salary is ~78-120, but the total cost is closer to 150.  Plug in your own numbers, though - it's still the same conclusion.  The real number to be worried about is their low transaction volume.

[Rampion]

$88 here we come

I missed you so much

As our friend Blitz would say, "The Great Dollar Extraction" is on.

Are you getting 88 from the move up (before the bubble)?
Or are you extrapolating somewhere?

My number is 82 but as I've said, I don't know that I play a bounce there.
This could get violent as large holders might want to sell their coins before others.
After all, we are under 100, solidly now...

$88 is a monthly low plus a crucial support level, as its part of the $50->$79->$88 "higher lows" trend.

[TheKoziTwo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3quv8AjmAI

I have placed my bid at $88, but not feeling too confident right now.

[N12]

I wonder when Yifu (Avalon CEO) will finally dump his 75k BTC that have been losing value ever since accumulated: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=227103.0

What happened with http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w ? 

Probably the same thing as to the 300 Spartans. They died.

[Rampion]

Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year

150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!

That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure).

[Voodah]

Regarding the downward price movement, it is what I've been saying - Look at the size of the sells compared to buys. They are often much much larger.
The chart tells you a little bit of that, but you need to be watching the tape to appreciate it.

I've been paying attention to this lately and noticing the exact same thing. Imho a big part of the buy side is fake. They are holding the price, all the while enabling sustained slow but regular dumps.

[klee]

This time I can certainly smell FEAR in the air...

[nmersulypnem]

Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year

150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!

That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure).

150K is the total employee cost - I should have made that clear.  Where I work, employees cost about 2x their salary in taxes, benefits, equipement, etc...

Think about it.  With their new infrastructure and crap volume, they could start losing 50K per day if the price keeps dropping.  Hell, they may already be bankrupt for all we know.  The fact that they only accept bank transfers in and not out, is definitely a red flag.

I have $100 that says they'll "unfortunately need to extend" their USD hiatus.

[NamelessOne]

All I have to say is "FINALLY!" been waiting a month and half, maybe longer for this. Felt like such a waste of time, people holding onto the hope of higher prices. I'm a long term bull but I think we have to go down before we can go back up again. The good old bitcoin way, hahaha.

[klee]

This time I can certainly smell FEAR in the air...

Yeah, but just a whiff ... cant see the white's of their eyes yet  

Did you sell yet Shroomy ?

Not sure if you refer to me - I am in LTC and XRP for the last month...

[N12]

People are getting to understand what "deflationary currency" truly means right now.

[Dalib]

we can really see very soon 82-88:

[tHash]

Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year

150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!

That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure).

150K is the total employee cost - I should have made that clear.  Where I work, employees cost about 2x their salary in taxes, benefits, equipement, etc...

Think about it.  With their new infrastructure and crap volume, they could start losing 50K per day if the price keeps dropping.  Hell, they may already be bankrupt for all we know.  The fact that they only accept bank transfers in and not out, is definitely a red flag.

I have $100 that says they'll "unfortunately need to extend" their USD hiatus.

So according to your calculations, Gox didn't exist before March of this year (when we crossed through $65).   Imagine how much they must have been running in the red when bitcoin was $5 or$12!