Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[solex]

I don't think the idea of whales buying to get money off of Mt. Gox is really what is going on.  This is very structured, with protective walls keeping the price elevated for more pre-determined buys.  That does not sound like someone who is looking to buy lots of BTC and pull out.  You also do not see decreasing prices anywhere else for these coins.  This is something else entirely.  What I am not sure but someone knows something.  

I think it is the boiling frog syndrome.

A lot of people had six figures of money on Mt Gox and have been waiting weeks and now months for this exchange to get back to normal. The price going up is like the water getting hotter. Every now and again one of them decides enough is enough of being goxxed, and goes all-in to buy coins and jumps out of the saucepan. The last frogs (whales) left are going to lose all their money if Gox finally dies and has to shut down.

[CMMPro]

I think if we are talking about syndromes....everyone here sounds like we have stockholm syndrome.

Price shoots up and first thing everyone says is "oh shit we are going to PAY for this someday soon!", can't we just enjoy the uptick?

Smile, and live in the moment people!

This is not "too fast" for a small rally, and the whales aren't dumping anywhere else as of this posting....so stop acting like the victims of abuse that we are and get out there in the sunshine and have a good time.

[BitcoinAshley]

I think a lot of people realize that even with the insolvency/seizure risk (and low float rate) it might still better to hold six figures (or more) on an exchange rather than withdrawing and declaring taxes on it. This obviously depends on our cost/benefit analysis.

They can mitigate this risk by buying BTC when the exchange has a cash flow problem or is facing regulatory scrutiny.

One could analyze the cost/benefit ratio this way: One could determine the risk of holding X sum of money on a given exchange (or multiple exchanges) and subtract a conservative amount of risk for proper management (i.e. going all-in to BTC when the risk of seizure/insolvency increases). They could determine the tax liability as well, which is the risk of withdrawal. Compare these risks against each other and one can determine whether it is safer to keep USD on an exchange (with the caveat that it must be converted into BTC, exposing one to exchange rate risk, when the regulatory or cash flow issues present themselves) or to accept the tax liability.
 
Obviously we can argue all day and night over which strategy has more risk, since some of the risks aren't easily quantifiable. We don't really have the data to asses this (we'd need everything from WMA bitcoin exchange float rates to % recoverable funds to current "bitcoin VIX" or downside move stats tax liabilites in various jurisdictions) but I'm sure there are some people who are starting to realize they can use the exchanges as a 'non-anonymous yet no-tax-liability so long as I don't withdraw' offshore bank account to some degree, holding their fiat there forever and then purchasing, shuffling and anonymizing BTC for purchase OTC or to anonymously/pseudonymously purchase real goods and services without having to declare the income first. I'm not saying this is an invincible strategy, but the law enforcement burden would be enormous, and there are most likely rich folks out there doing exactly what I have described.

EDIT: In case the feds are reading, I don't have anywhere near enough money to even consider myself "a rich person trying to evade taxes on the internet," so please don't waste tax dollars investigating my broke a$$. I'm merely speculating on what these bastards are doing with the bitcoin price.

[ChartBuddy]

[Walsoraj]

Only 40k coins to surpass April's peak. Lmfao, the crash following gonna be so epic. I'm revising former prediction of single digits, to double cents. Probably $0.67.

[ArticMine]

Only 40k coins to surpass April's peak. Lmfao, the crash following gonna be so epic. I'm revising former prediction of single digits, to double cents. Probably $0.67.

On which exchange?

[Walsoraj]

Only 40k coins to surpass April's peak. Lmfao, the crash following gonna be so epic. I'm revising former prediction of single digits, to double cents. Probably $0.67.

On which exchange?

Gox. The ask depth has been steadily vaporizing. NO ONE wants fiat on Gox and you gotta buy btc to get it off. lmfao. the perfect scheme by Gox. Basically extortion.

We are going to rocket up like never before imo. New highs within a week. Then incredible crash.

[ArticMine]

Only 40k coins to surpass April's peak. Lmfao, the crash following gonna be so epic. I'm revising former prediction of single digits, to double cents. Probably $0.67.

On which exchange?

Gox. The ask depth has been steadily vaporizing. NO ONE wants fiat on Gox. We are going to rocket up like never before imo. New highs within a week. Then incredible crash.

So those holding MTGox USD CAD will make a killing in this bear market?

Edit: Scratch MTGox USD to risky, but MTGox CAD that would be interesting.  

[NewLiberty]

I'm noticing an interesting phenomenon where positive news = dump btc for fiat (more likely you will be able to get your fiat off exchange later) and negative news = panic buy bitcoin (fiat might get locked on exchange for various reasons). This is pure insanity.

like gold?
Satoshi would not have invented bitcoin without 2008 crisis. He wrote some comments on the blockchain about it
Insanity is the financial system we have. Bitcoin is sanity.

Yes he would have.  It started long before then.

[MikeH]

maybe it has something to do with:

The outgoing Homeland Security Secretary has a warning for her successor: A massive and “serious” cyber attack on the U.S. homeland is coming, and a natural disaster — the likes of which the nation has never seen — is also likely on its way.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/08/outgoing-dhs-secretary-janet-napolitano-warns-of-serious-cyber-attackunprecedented-natural-disaster/

-

the cyber attack may be a way to shift blame from the banksters when they pull the pin on the economy - a good time for that would be after the US launches a couple of missiles on Syria.

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[samson]

maybe it has something to do with:

The outgoing Homeland Security Secretary has a warning for her successor: A massive and “serious” cyber attack on the U.S. homeland is coming, and a natural disaster — the likes of which the nation has never seen — is also likely on its way.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/08/outgoing-dhs-secretary-janet-napolitano-warns-of-serious-cyber-attackunprecedented-natural-disaster/

-

the cyber attack may be a way to shift blame from the banksters when they pull the pin on the economy - a good time for that would be after the US launches a couple of missiles on Syria.

How can this woman predict natural disasters ? What a load of crap.

[capsqrl]

Satoshi would not have invented bitcoin without 2008 crisis. He wrote some comments on the blockchain about it
Insanity is the financial system we have. Bitcoin is sanity.

Satoshi worked in Bitcoin for years prior to the 2008 crisis. He had likely thought the financial system was insane for a long time.

[crazy_rabbit]

It's only been a few months, but bitcoin is a lot more useful today then it was back in April. Surprisingly, I actually make purchases quite regularly with it these days. Millions of dollars of ASIC equipment is bought with it, the Chinese market is growing fast and it's even connected with Mpesa now bringing bitcoin to everyone in Kenya. Not to mention that butter coin seems well funded and looks like they are moving quickly to enter the remittance market in force, and don't forget we are actually talking directly with the government about the future now.

Gox this, gox that. The point is, Bitcoin works. That's worth investing in.

[capsqrl]

Well we finally crossed 140 again with a healthy support wall. I think this is going to be an interesting weekend.

[Itcher]

look at bitcoin.de ... here the rally started with a time lag, half an hour before we reached 99 Euro

[rpietila]

I think a lot of people realize that even with the insolvency/seizure risk (and low float rate) it might still better to hold six figures (or more) on an exchange rather than withdrawing and declaring taxes on it. This obviously depends on our cost/benefit analysis.

They can mitigate this risk by buying BTC when the exchange has a cash flow problem or is facing regulatory scrutiny.

One could analyze the cost/benefit ratio this way: One could determine the risk of holding X sum of money on a given exchange (or multiple exchanges) and subtract a conservative amount of risk for proper management (i.e. going all-in to BTC when the risk of seizure/insolvency increases). They could determine the tax liability as well, which is the risk of withdrawal. Compare these risks against each other and one can determine whether it is safer to keep USD on an exchange (with the caveat that it must be converted into BTC, exposing one to exchange rate risk, when the regulatory or cash flow issues present themselves) or to accept the tax liability.
 
Obviously we can argue all day and night over which strategy has more risk, since some of the risks aren't easily quantifiable. We don't really have the data to asses this (we'd need everything from WMA bitcoin exchange float rates to % recoverable funds to current "bitcoin VIX" or downside move stats tax liabilites in various jurisdictions) but I'm sure there are some people who are starting to realize they can use the exchanges as a 'non-anonymous yet no-tax-liability so long as I don't withdraw' offshore bank account to some degree, holding their fiat there forever and then purchasing, shuffling and anonymizing BTC for purchase OTC or to anonymously/pseudonymously purchase real goods and services without having to declare the income first. I'm not saying this is an invincible strategy, but the law enforcement burden would be enormous, and there are most likely rich folks out there doing exactly what I have described.

EDIT: In case the feds are reading, I don't have anywhere near enough money to even consider myself "a rich person trying to evade taxes on the internet," so please don't waste tax dollars investigating my broke a$$. I'm merely speculating on what these bastards are doing with the bitcoin price.

Good thinking. We the rich, prefer to invest cold-bloodedly, and assess the risks in percentages. In my case, for example, selling bitcoins from my long-term personal holding (which has never been dipped into), would result in 24% tax of the amount sold (since it is practically all profit, measured in fiat).

Even if there is 50% probability of Gox going belly up this year, and in 20% probability this will lead to the total loss of BTC holdings there, the estimated loss is only 10% (50%*20%). Much less than the loss to taxman by selling the coins.

Government has confiscated physical gold and silver from me, my companies and my customers in 2008. It is not that all the value confiscated will be indefinitely kept by the government, because it is illegal and unpractical for them to do so. The risk premium (discount applied when my customers bought silver in gov custody, to be delivered when it is returned to me) was 10% during the time. The metals were held for 7.5 months, returned in full after the investigation and no charges were filed.

The feds are threatening the bitcoin holders with unlawfully long process times. They don't have the authority to take and keep your bitcoins without due process, not any more from Mt.Gox than your personal holdings.